BloombergTrades focused on Latin American currencies are among the top performers. The Brazilian real, for instance, has already returned 4.5% so far in 2026, building on last year’s 23.5%. The country’s interest rates are at 15% even though inflation has slowed toward the central bank’s target range. The Mexican peso’s carry trade has returned 4.3% this year, with Deutsche Bank maintaining a bullish stance on the currency.Citi strategists too are among those recommending buying the real against the dollar ...

Core Insights - The credit card market in the U.S. is dominated by a few large financial institutions, leading to high costs for consumers and businesses [1][3] - There is a growing national discussion on potential government interventions to lower credit card costs, including proposals for a 10% cap on fees [2] - The credit card industry is characterized by an oligopoly of major banks and a duopoly of processing networks, resulting in limited competition [3] Industry Dynamics - Major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, American Express, Citigroup, and Capital One account for approximately 70% of all credit card transactions [3] - Visa and Mastercard process over 80% of these transactions, reinforcing their dominant position in the market [3] - The markup on credit card borrowing compared to benchmarks like the prime rate has increased to 16.4%, indicating rising costs for consumers [4] Impact on Small Businesses - Credit cards serve as a significant source of credit for small businesses, but the associated costs are becoming increasingly burdensome [5] - Merchant fees charged by Visa and Mastercard have nearly doubled in five years, reaching $111 billion in 2024, which are often passed on to consumers [5] - These fees rank among the highest costs for merchants, following real estate and labor expenses [5] Comparative Analysis - The cost of credit card transactions in the U.S. is significantly higher than in other industrialized countries, where competition and regulation are more favorable [6][7] - Consumer credit is also less expensive in other regions due to these factors, highlighting inefficiencies in the U.S. market [6][7]

Group 1 - China Aluminum International (02068) saw a mid-day increase of over 2.4% after announcing a joint venture to undertake a new electrolytic aluminum project with an annual capacity of 394,000 tons, with the first phase set at 294,000 tons [1] - CGN Mining (01164) rose over 8.3% following the submission of a preliminary prospectus for a trust that plans to issue up to $2 billion in transferable, non-redeemable trust shares over 25 months, with annual uranium procurement not exceeding 9 million pounds [1] - China Shengmu Organic Milk (01432) increased nearly 6% after a joint announcement regarding a potential conditional cash offer to acquire all issued shares of the company [1] Group 2 - Yijun Group Holdings (02442) surged over 18%, with a cumulative increase of nearly 500% since its resumption of trading in December, following the sale of shares by its controlling shareholder [2] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) rose over 10%, reaching a historical high of 5.49 HKD, after announcing the termination of its gold spin-off plan to focus on gold business [2] - Laopuqin Gold (06181) increased over 7.3% as consumer demand is expected to rise during the upcoming Spring Festival, driven by higher gold prices and anticipated price increases [2] Group 3 - Oil stocks continued to rise, with CNOOC (02883) up 4.19%, Sinopec (00386) up 2.54%, and PetroChina (00857) up 3.68%, amid escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran and Cuba [3] - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) saw a rise of over 15.4% due to significant price increases and supply tightness in the G.652.D optical fiber market, with major manufacturers unable to meet their own orders [3] Group 4 - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) increased over 2.6% after announcing plans to start construction on a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in 2026, with an investment of $437 million [4] - Xindong Company (02400) saw a slight increase of 0.43% as its mobile game "Xindong Town" surpassed 10 million downloads, indicating strong user growth [4] Group 5 - EquipmentShare.com (EQPT.US) debuted on the US stock market with an IPO price of $24.5, closing up 32.9% on its first day [5] - The solar energy sector saw initial gains, with JinkoSolar (JKS.US) up 9.03% and Canadian Solar (CSIQ.US) up 4.57%, following discussions at the Davos Forum [5] - Silver-related stocks experienced gains, with First Majestic Silver (AG.US) rising 5.04% as spot silver prices surpassed $100 [5] Group 6 - Lithium mining stocks mostly rose, with Sigma Lithium (SGML.US) up 17.54% after announcing additional sales of high-purity lithium powder [6] - Bank stocks declined, with Goldman Sachs (GS.US) down 3.75% amid legal issues involving President Trump and JPMorgan [6] - Redwire (RDW.US) increased by 4.51% following comments from Elon Musk about SpaceX's plans for reusable rocket technology [6] Group 7 - Semiconductor stocks showed strength, with AMD (AMD.US) up 2.35% and Nvidia (NVDA.US) up 1.53%, as Nvidia's CEO visited China to discuss future plans [7] - Ericsson (ERIC.US) rose 8.87% after reporting strong fourth-quarter earnings, with adjusted EBITA reaching 12.7 billion SEK, a 24% increase year-over-year [8] - Intel (INTC.US) fell 17.03% due to disappointing performance outlooks and manufacturing issues [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Global Macro Strategy focusing on geopolitical tensions and trade implications, particularly involving the US and Greenland - **Company**: Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (Citi Research) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US-Greenland Relations**: The US has intensified its focus on Greenland, with President Trump announcing tariffs on goods from several European countries as part of efforts to pursue control over Greenland. A 10% tariff will be imposed starting February 1, 2026, increasing to 25% by June 1, 2026, unless a deal for the complete purchase of Greenland is reached [5][6][19] 2. **European Military Presence**: Several European nations, including France, Germany, and the UK, have deployed troops to Greenland to bolster NATO's presence against perceived threats from Russia and China in the Arctic [5][6] 3. **Strategic Importance of Greenland**: Greenland is viewed as a critical maritime hub due to its geographical position and potential resources, including an estimated 36 million tonnes of rare earth minerals, which are vital for technology and defense sectors [8][10] 4. **EU Retaliation Options**: The EU is preparing a tariff package worth EUR 93 billion in response to US tariffs, alongside potential use of the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) to counter US economic pressure [14][15] 5. **Economic Implications**: The new tariffs are expected to have a marginally negative impact on European growth in the short term but could lead to increased inflation risks and a stronger case for enhanced European defense spending [6][19] 6. **Potential Scenarios**: Various scenarios for US actions regarding Greenland include: - **Negotiated Deal**: A potential agreement allowing the US to extract resources while increasing NATO's defense efforts [8] - **Forced Sale**: Economic coercion through tariffs to incentivize a sale of Greenland [11] - **Independence Push**: Supporting Greenland's independence to negotiate directly with its government [12] - **Military Intervention**: Considered highly unlikely due to severe geopolitical consequences [13] Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Tariff Mechanisms**: The report outlines various non-IEEPA avenues for tariffs, including Sections 232, 201, and 301, which could be utilized if the Supreme Court rules against IEEPA [19][22] 2. **Market Reactions**: The report suggests that geopolitical tensions may lead to increased defense spending in Europe, impacting various financial instruments, including Eurostoxx defense stocks and gold prices [23][24] 3. **Long-term Currency Implications**: The EURUSD exchange rate is expected to be influenced by the evolving geopolitical landscape, with potential for both bearish and bullish outcomes depending on European cohesion and defense spending [25] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications discussed in the conference call, highlighting the geopolitical dynamics surrounding Greenland and the potential economic ramifications for Europe and the US.

Summary of Aluminum Inventory and Consumption in China (January 2026) Industry Overview - **Industry**: Aluminum - **Focus**: Tracking and analyzing high-frequency on-ground demand trends in China, particularly aluminum ingot and billet production, inventory, and consumption data for the week of January 15th to 21st, 2026 [1] Key Points Production Data - **Total Aluminum Production**: 858,000 tons (kt), unchanged week-over-week (WoW), +3% year-over-year (YoY), and +3% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - **Aluminum Billet Production**: 330,000 kt, -4% WoW, +9% YoY, and -3% YoY on the lunar calendar [2] - **Year-to-Date (YTD) Production**: - Total aluminum production: 3.4 million tons (mnt), +2.8% YoY - Aluminum billet production: 1.4 mnt, +6.1% YoY [2] Inventory Levels - **Total Aluminum Inventory**: 1,201 kt as of January 22, 2026, +2% WoW, +29% YoY, and +56% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] - **Social Inventory**: 998 kt, +4% WoW, +48% YoY, and +64% YoY on the lunar calendar - **Producers' Inventory**: 203 kt, -3% WoW, -20% YoY, and +25% YoY on the lunar calendar - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: 848 kt, +1% WoW, +58% YoY, and +56% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] - **Aluminum Billet Inventory**: 353 kt, +5% WoW, -10% YoY, and +57% YoY on the lunar calendar [3] Apparent Consumption - **Overall Aluminum Apparent Consumption**: 841 kt, +6% WoW, +21% YoY, and +2% YoY on the lunar calendar [4] - **Aluminum Ingot Consumption**: 871 kt, +3% WoW, +4% YoY, and +2% YoY on the lunar calendar - **Aluminum Billet Consumption**: 300 kt, +2% WoW, +84% YoY, and -3% YoY on the lunar calendar - **YTD Apparent Consumption**: - Overall: 3.2 mnt, -1.1% YoY - Aluminum ingot: -3.6% YoY - Aluminum billet: +16.0% YoY [4] Takeaways - The increase in aluminum ingot and billet inventory is indicative of overall aluminum demand trends, suggesting a cautious market expectation for demand recovery [5] - The apparent consumption levels during the week were higher than the same period in 2024-25 on the lunar calendar, indicating a potential upward trend in demand [7] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of inventory data in assessing overall aluminum demand, as it reflects changes across various types of aluminum inventory [5] - The aluminum sector is currently ranked highest in the sector pecking order, followed by copper, battery materials, gold, coal, cement, and steel [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in bond issuance by major Wall Street banks, driven by declining borrowing costs and increased demand for financing related to artificial intelligence (AI) investments, with projections indicating a total issuance of approximately $2.5 trillion in the U.S. corporate bond market by 2026 [1][4][5] - Major Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, have recently launched substantial bond financing plans, with Goldman Sachs' issuance being the largest in history for investment-grade bonds at $16 billion [1][2][3] - The overall corporate bond issuance in the U.S. is expected to reach $2.46 trillion in 2026, an 11.8% increase from $2.2 trillion in 2025, with a net issuance of $945 billion anticipated for this year, reflecting a 30.2% growth from last year [4][5] Group 2 - The surge in capital returns by the six major Wall Street banks, exceeding $140 billion in 2025 through dividends and stock buybacks, is attributed to soaring bank profits and relaxed regulatory policies, which enhance corporate financing confidence [2][3] - The demand for high-quality dollar-denominated bonds is driving down corporate financing costs, with the current credit spread for U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds being the lowest since June 1998, at just 0.73 percentage points above U.S. Treasury yields [4][5] - Concerns are rising among investors regarding the substantial debt incurred by tech giants for AI infrastructure, as there is skepticism about the profitability of such large-scale capital expenditures [6]

Group 1 - Citigroup Inc. is considered one of the best financial stocks to buy, with RBC Capital reaffirming an Outperform rating and a $121 price target following solid quarterly results [1] - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.81, surpassing analysts' expectations of $1.70 [1] - Management expressed confidence in achieving medium-term goals of 10-11% Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) by 2026, up from 7.7% in 2025 [2] Group 2 - The Services division of Citigroup is the strongest segment, achieving a 36% ROTCE, followed by U.S. Personal Banking at 14% and Banking at 13% [2] - RBC Capital anticipates that moderate revenue growth and a strong focus on expense management will be key drivers for Citigroup to meet its financial objectives, emphasizing the importance of execution [3] - Citigroup operates as a diversified financial services holding company, providing a range of products and services across five segments: Services, Markets, Banking, US Personal Banking, and Wealth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in bank stocks presents an opportunity for investors, particularly in three specific banks that are expected to rebound due to bank-specific catalysts [2][3]. Group 1: Citigroup - Citigroup's stock has experienced a pullback from nearly $125 to around $114 per share, despite a strong start to the year [4]. - The bank's market capitalization is $203 billion, with a current price of $113.59 and a dividend yield of 2.04% [5][6]. - Citigroup improved its earnings by 18% last year, and its turnaround is entering the final stage through cost-cutting measures, which could significantly impact its stock price [6][7]. Group 2: Flagstar Bank - Flagstar Bank, formed from a merger in 2022, has faced challenges due to high exposure to commercial real estate loans, particularly after acquiring Signature Bank [8][10]. - The current stock price is $12.90, with a market cap of $5.4 billion and a dividend yield of 0.31% [9][10]. - Management aims to return to profitability this year, with earnings projected to reach $2.10 to $2.20 per share by 2027, potentially increasing the stock price to the mid-$20s [11]. Group 3: Pinnacle Financial Partners - Pinnacle Financial Partners has seen its stock price decline over 15% in the past year but is positioned for recovery following its acquisition of Synovus Financial [12]. - The current stock price is $97.06, with a market cap of $15 billion [13]. - The merger is expected to be 21% accretive to 2027 earnings, with analysts forecasting around 12% earnings growth in 2026, which could lead to earnings exceeding 35% above 2025 estimates [14].

Core Viewpoint - Citi has transitioned from a phase of remediation to one focused on competition, with CEO Jane Fraser emphasizing the need for cultural change within the organization [1][2]. Group 1: Company Transformation - Since Jane Fraser became CEO in 2021, Citi has improved significantly, with its stock rising approximately 40% over the past year and over 80% in the last five years, indicating growing investor confidence [2]. - The bank's transformation is supported by three key executives responsible for critical growth areas: investment banking, wealth management, and technology [3]. Group 2: Key Executives and Their Impact - Viswas Raghavan, head of banking, has driven investment banking fees up by 35% year-over-year in 2025, with M&A revenues increasing by 84% [6]. Notable client wins include Boeing, Pfizer, and a $14.9 billion acquisition for Nippon Steel [7]. - Andy Sieg, head of wealth management, reported a 22% revenue increase over two years and aims to integrate wealth offerings with AI in daily workflows [11][12]. He has made strategic hires to strengthen the division [14]. - Tim Ryan, head of technology, is leading the integration of AI into Citi's operations, with over 80% of transformation programs nearing completion [17]. The bank has utilized generative AI for one million automated code reviews, saving around 100,000 hours weekly [20]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The finance industry is rapidly evolving due to AI, with major firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan investing heavily in technology [21]. Citi is now positioned to redefine its identity after years of addressing past issues [21].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup (C.US) is expected to announce further layoffs in March following an initial round of approximately 1,000 job cuts this month, with the new layoffs likely affecting MD and senior-level employees across various business lines [1] Group 1: Layoff Details - Citigroup has already conducted a round of layoffs involving around 1,000 employees [1] - The upcoming layoffs are anticipated to be announced after the bonus distribution, although the exact number of positions to be cut remains undisclosed [1] - Senior management has been reassigned to different departments to secure their positions before the layoffs occur [1] Group 2: Financial Context - The CFO of Citigroup indicated during a recent earnings call that the company has been reducing its workforce and expects this trend to continue as part of its cost-cutting measures [1] - Last year, Citigroup incurred approximately $800 million in severance costs related to layoffs [1]