Group 1 - The central bank of China set the RMB to USD exchange rate at 7.1409, a decrease of 43 points [2] - Morgan Stanley indicates that the revision of July's non-farm payroll data has increased the probability of an economic recession by 9 percentage points [4] - Citigroup suggests that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.5%, the Federal Reserve may implement a 50 basis point rate cut [4] Group 2 - Bill Campbell from DoubleLine Capital predicts that the US dollar may experience significant depreciation [5] - Campbell states that if the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair takes swift action to lower interest rates, it could trigger a decline in the dollar [5] - Campbell believes there is still potential for further declines in the dollar's value [5]

美国"非农"数据暴雷令美联储降息预期飙升，但本周华尔街知名投行对降息分歧却在加大。 不过，美银全球研究部却对此持有不同看法。该团队认为，劳动力需求的下降与供给减少相匹配，失业 率保持相对稳定，且消费者支出似乎正在增强，这可能预示着美国经济走向更强劲的轨迹。 高盛8月4日发布报告表示，美国潜在的月度就业增长已从第一季度的20.6万骤降至7月的2.8万，这表明 劳动力市场正在迅速降温。基于此，高盛认为9月降息25个基点的可能性极高，若数据进一步恶化，甚 至可能激进降息50个基点。 花旗也预计美联储可能降息50个基点。该机构表示，在就业数据大幅下修后，美联储官员可能会失去观 望的"奢侈"，并预计政策利率最终将降至3%。该机构认为，潜在经济活动增长在今年上半年已放缓至 潜力以下，这为将政策利率降至中性或更低水平提供了理由。 摩根大通在最新研报中预测，9月与11月美联储可能各降息50个基点，12月再降25个基点，全年累计125 个基点;并称"存在提前至9月会议前紧急降息的强烈理由"。 高盛预计，即使美联储到2026年中期将利率降至3%-3.25%，欧洲央行仍可能维持较高存款利率，这种 政策分化将进一步削弱美元。同时，对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in Citigroup's outlook on gold, moving from a bearish to a bullish stance, with a revised price forecast for gold reaching $3,500 per ounce in the next three months, up from a previous forecast of $3,300 per ounce [1][2]. Group 1: Citigroup's Revised Gold Outlook - Citigroup has adjusted its gold price expectations, raising the forecast for the next three months from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, and the trading range from $3,100-$3,500 to $3,300-$3,600 per ounce [1]. - The bank's previous bearish outlook from June, which anticipated gold prices dropping below $3,000, has been overturned due to factors such as weak U.S. labor data and geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2][4]. Group 2: Demand and Market Dynamics - Since mid-2022, total gold demand has increased by over 33%, contributing to a near doubling of gold prices in the second quarter of this year [3]. - Strong investment demand, ongoing purchases by central banks, and resilient jewelry demand are identified as key drivers of the rising gold prices [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Recent U.S. economic data, including a significant revision of non-farm payrolls, has led to volatile gold price movements, with prices surging past $3,400 per ounce amid rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6]. - The market is reacting to perceived economic weaknesses and adjusting expectations for future monetary policy, with analysts suggesting that the focus will shift to U.S. fiscal expansion and potential rate cuts [6]. Group 4: Central Bank Activity and Investor Behavior - Global gold demand in the second quarter reached 1,249 tons, a 3% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by strong investment demand [9]. - Central banks continued to purchase gold, adding 166 tons in the second quarter, although at a slower pace, indicating sustained high levels of gold accumulation amid economic uncertainties [9].

Group 1 - Despite a significant rebound in the dollar index (DXY) with a 3.2% increase in July, Wall Street forex strategists remain bearish on the dollar's long-term prospects [1] - The recent strong GDP data and the adaptation to tariff policies temporarily boosted the dollar, reversing previous declines [1] - Concerns over the reliability of U.S. economic data have been raised due to weak employment figures and the firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief [1] Group 2 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report on September 5 is critical, with market attention on data credibility and collection methods [2] - There are concerns that a strong employment report could lead to suspicions of data manipulation, especially with a new appointee expected to be a Trump loyalist [2] - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler has sparked speculation about potential nominees, which could influence market perceptions of future Fed policies [2] Group 3 - Barclays' forex strategy head believes Kugler's departure opens a new window for short-term dollar weakness, but does not foresee excessive depreciation by 2025 [3] - Both Goldman Sachs and Barclays favor a bullish outlook on the yen against the dollar, highlighting the yen's appeal as a safe-haven currency in uncertain times [3]

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Core Viewpoint - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased significantly due to weak non-farm payroll data, yet the actual decline of the US dollar has been less than anticipated. Despite this, major Wall Street banks are collectively bearish on the dollar, citing overvaluation and weak fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have published reports indicating that the long-term logic for a decline in the dollar remains intact, with significant short-selling potential still available [2][12]. - Following the release of non-farm data, the market's expectation for Fed rate cuts surged from approximately 30 basis points to about 60 basis points, highlighting the weak labor market [5][6]. - Despite the shift in interest rate expectations, the dollar's actual decline has been relatively moderate, suggesting that downward momentum has not been fully realized [6][10]. Group 2: Currency Valuation - Citigroup believes that the current valuation of the euro against the dollar is still below fair value, with potential for the euro/dollar exchange rate to overshoot to 1.20 [3][10]. - Goldman Sachs notes that the dollar's real trade-weighted exchange rate is still 15% above its long-term average, while the US current account deficit stands at 4% of GDP, both of which are unfavorable for the dollar [12]. - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that domestic policy uncertainties, particularly following the resignation of Fed Governor Kugler, add downward pressure on the dollar [12]. Group 3: Short-term Dynamics - The positioning of leveraged funds in dollars has flattened, indicating that previous large-scale liquidations may have concluded, which could affect the dollar's next movements [4][13]. - The dollar's future trajectory will depend heavily on three potential catalysts: the nomination of a new Fed governor, changes in the leadership of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the upcoming CPI inflation report on August 12 [4][14]. Group 4: Potential Catalysts - The nomination of Kugler's successor is seen as a direct catalyst that could likely be bearish for the dollar, with potential candidates being Walsh or Hassett [14]. - Changes in BLS leadership could inject uncertainty into upcoming employment reports, leading to market speculation on data outcomes rather than accuracy [14]. - The CPI report on August 12 is critical, as unexpected inflation data could challenge the narrative of rapid Fed rate cuts and support the dollar [14].

近日，花旗集团金融服务部门（Citi Services）主管 Shahmir Khaliq在接受《每日经济新闻》记者（以下 简称NBD）独家专访时给出了答案。 他表示，通过深度整合支付、流动性管理、贸易融资等五大核心业务，花旗构建了覆盖多市场多货币 的"端到端"解决方案，有效破解了传统金融服务碎片化痛点。 尽管面临利率下行挑战，花旗金融服务部依然贡献了花旗超半数存款，并在最新财季实现了8%的同比 收入增长和23%的有形普通股回报率（RoTCE）。 在全球复杂多变的金融环境下，大型跨国银行如何持续提升客户体验并保持强劲盈利能力？ 记者注意到，花旗金融服务部每年在技术上投入15亿美元。"客户需求正强力驱动技术迭代。"Shahmir Khaliq对记者表示，人工智能特别是生成式AI（人工智能），正在客户服务和后端流程自动化中发挥关 键作用。同时，花旗亦战略布局如Citi Token Services（花旗代币服务）等代币化解决方案，以实现实时 跨境资金转移和贸易融资自动化。 低利率环境也带来机遇 NBD：您曾在公开演讲中提到，花旗金融服务业务部门整合具有强大协同效应。能否具体说明这种整 合如何转化为客户体验提升？ ...

美联储降息预期因非农数据大幅升温，但美元的实际跌幅却低于预期。尽管如此，华尔街三大投行集体看空美元，认为其估值偏高，基本面疲 软。 然而，短期走势仍存变数。花旗认为，杠杆基金的美元仓位已趋于扁平化，此前的大规模平仓潮可能已告一段落。因此，美元的下一步走势将高 度依赖三大潜在催化剂：美联储新理事的提名人选、劳工统计局领导层变动带来的就业数据不确定性，以及即将于8月12日公布的CPI通胀报告。 弱势就业数据引爆市场，但美元跌势"不及预期" 花旗在报告中表示，上周五公布的美国劳动力市场数据如其预期般疲软，这是花旗在第三季度看空美元的核心逻辑之一。在数据公布前，市场对 美联储今年的降息预期约为30个基点；数据公布后，这一预期迅速翻倍至约60个基点。 然而，一个值得关注的细节是，尽管利率市场定价发生了如此巨大的转变，美元的实际跌幅却相对"温和"，并未完全跟上利率的步伐（除美元/日 元外）。花旗报告分析了其中的原因： 瑞士法郎（CHF） 因瑞士遭遇意外关税而出现特殊性疲软。 澳元（AUD）、新西兰元（NZD）、英镑（GBP）、瑞典克朗（SEK）和加元（CAD）等风险相关货币，因股市抛售而承压，限制了它们对美元 的涨幅。 ...

美联储降息预期因非农数据大幅升温，但美元的实际跌幅却低于预期。尽管如此，华尔街三大投行集体看空美元，认为其估值偏高，基本面疲 软。 据追风交易台消息，花旗、高盛、大摩近日发表研报，认为从估值、贸易赤字和利差等多维度分析，美元下跌的长期逻辑依旧成立，美元头寸仍 有巨大的做空空间。上周非农数据后，美元的下跌动能因风险货币承压、以及部分货币特殊性疲软而受到抑制，并未在第一时间完全释放。 展望后市，三大投行一致看空美元。花旗认为欧元/美元当前估值仍低于公允价值，有潜力超调至1.20；高盛指出，美元实际贸易加权汇率仍比其 长期平均水平高出15%；大摩则强调，美联储领导层变动等政策不确定性也为美元增加了下行压力。 然而，短期走势仍存变数。花旗认为，杠杆基金的美元仓位已趋于扁平化，此前的大规模平仓潮可能已告一段落。因此，美元的下一步走势将高 度依赖三大潜在催化剂：美联储新理事的提名人选、劳工统计局领导层变动带来的就业数据不确定性，以及即将于8月12日公布的CPI通胀报告。 | | | Cumulative Pricing by FOMC Meeting (bps) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

美国最新就业数据显示美国经济和劳动力市场正急剧放缓，已让华尔街确信美联储的政策拐点迫在眉 睫。高盛与花旗等纷纷预测，25基点甚至50基点的降息最早将在9月启动，政策利率的最终落点可能下 探至3%甚至更低。同时，美联储内部鸽派力量正在集结，或为为更早、更快的降息扫清障碍。 美国经济正显现出明确的放缓信号，尤其是在关键的劳动力市场，这使得美联储启动降息周期似乎已 是箭在弦上。 最新的就业数据成为引爆市场预期的导火索。据追风交易台消息，高盛8月4日测算，美国潜在的月度 就业增长已从第一季度的20.6万骤降至7月的2.8万。花旗则在报告中指出，在就业数据大幅下修后， 美联储官员可能"不再有耐心等待降息"，已经失去了采取"观望"态度的"奢侈"。 基于此， 高盛与花旗均认为9月降息25基点的可能性极高，若数据进一步恶化甚至可能激进降息50基 点。 高盛预测，美联储将在2025年9月、10月和12月连续进行三次25个基点的降息。花旗则在其基 准情景中预测政策利率将降至3%，并认为风险偏向于更低的利率水平。 这一预期转变也受到政治因素的推动。美联储理事Adriana Kugler的辞职，以及上次会议中出现的自 1993年以来 ...