花旗首席经济学家：由于外国政府出售国债也会面临损失，因此大规模抛售美国国债的风险较低。 ...

花旗集团首席经济学家表示关税是对美国经济的"滞涨冲击"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup expects the USD/JPY exchange rate to strengthen towards a target of around 120, as the U.S. seeks to address the issue of yen weakness in upcoming trade negotiations [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Expectations - Analysts led by Osamu Takashima believe that while the U.S. may consider a level around 100, a compromise level closer to 120 is more realistic [1] - The anticipated discussions between Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu and U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are expected to focus on this exchange rate issue [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Implications - Citigroup suggests that the normalization of policies by the Bank of Japan will support the yen's appreciation [1] - The Trump administration is likely to avoid increasing tariffs on Japan, which could further influence the yen's strength [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup anticipates that the Japanese yen will strengthen against the US dollar as the US seeks to address the yen's weakness in upcoming trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - Citigroup analysts, including Osamu Takashima, suggest a more realistic compromise level for the yen to dollar exchange rate is around 120 yen per dollar, rather than the 100 yen per dollar being considered by the US [1] - On Tuesday, the yen rose by 0.7%, reaching an exchange rate of 139.89 yen per dollar [1] - The expectation of the Bank of Japan moving towards policy normalization is expected to support the yen [1] Group 2 - The trade negotiations may encourage the Trump administration to avoid increasing tariffs on Japan [1]

当地时间4月21日，美股三大指数低开低走，盘中均一度跌逾3%。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨0.20%，中金科工业、禾赛科技涨逾6%，多尼斯涨逾5%，好未来涨 逾2%。 消息面上，特朗普对杰罗姆·鲍威尔的最新施压，再次引发市场对总统干预美联储政策的担忧。自上周以来，特朗普的 一系列抨击，让人们开始质疑美联储能否保持政治独立性——而这种独立性正是美国金融市场信心的基石。与此同时， 美联储青睐的通胀指标最新数据仍高于目标水平。 在财报季，特朗普反复无常的贸易政策令市场愈发紧张不安，财报发布高峰也于周二正式开启。许多公司已经下调或取 消了年度业绩预期，分析师们也在匆忙下调对美国大型企业的盈利增长预测。 Empower首席投资策略师玛尔塔·诺顿表示："今日的股价走势反映出三重不利因素：关税背景、财报表现不佳，以及总 统对鲍威尔主席的再度施压。特朗普对鲍威尔的不满由来已久，但他4月2日'解放日'的意外言论，或许让投资者意识 到，他在社交媒体上的表态比以往更值得重视。" 其他美国资产也掀起了抛售浪潮。人们愈发质疑美国作为全球资本首选目的地的地位，以及其在国际金融体系中的长期 核心作用。美元汇率下滑，国债市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on US equities, lowering the S&P 500 year-end target to 5,800, reflecting a reduction in earnings estimates and valuation assumptions [4][54][63]. Core Insights - The recent US tariffs are viewed as a negative supply shock, likely leading to increased inflation and reduced economic growth, with core PCE inflation projected to reach 3.5% by year-end and real GDP growth slowing to near zero [10][29]. - The European economy is expected to face downward pressure due to tighter financing conditions and a direct negative demand shock from tariffs, prompting the European Central Bank to cut policy rates [11][44]. - Emerging markets, particularly "Factory Asia," are significantly threatened by the tariffs, with export-led economies experiencing substantial growth shocks and rising inflation [12][46]. Summary by Sections US Economics - The average effective tariff rate is estimated at about 21%, representing an 18% increase, and is expected to remain elevated for at least 3-6 months [3][25]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to respond to economic weakness with policy rate cuts, potentially totaling 125 basis points this year [10][30]. European Economics - The US tariffs are expected to have interwoven consequences for the European economy, leading to a shift towards a more domestically driven growth model, which may result in higher real rates and inflation over time [11][36]. - A J-shaped profile for growth, inflation, and policy rates is anticipated, with all three metrics expected to decline in the near term before rising again [45]. Emerging Markets Economics - The tariffs pose a significant threat to export-led economies in Asia, with simulations indicating asymmetric impacts and necessitating aggressive monetary easing by central banks in the region [12][46]. - Countries like Vietnam and Mexico are particularly exposed to the US market, facing substantial growth shocks due to the tariffs [47][50]. US Equities - The S&P 500 year-end target has been lowered to 5,800, with a reduction in the 2025 earnings estimate to $255, reflecting a wider range of potential earnings outcomes due to tariff uncertainty [4][54][63]. - The report suggests that the market volatility and tariff announcements have led to a significant reevaluation of earnings growth expectations for 2025 [54][56]. Commodities - The commodities outlook is bearish for oil and copper while bullish for gold, aligning with the anticipated impacts of the tariff growth shock [6][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on China's exports, forecasting a contraction of -5% YoY for the entire year due to prohibitive US tariffs affecting approximately 80% of China's exports [7]. Core Insights - China's exports growth surged by 12.4% YoY in March, significantly exceeding market forecasts, while imports contracted at a slower pace of -4.3% YoY, leading to a trade surplus of US$102.6 billion [3][4]. - The strong export performance is attributed to front-loading activities in anticipation of US tariffs, with exports to the US rising by 9.1% YoY in March [6]. - The global manufacturing cycle remains resilient, supporting China's exports in machinery and electrical products, although semiconductor-related exports are moderating due to slowing demand [6][7]. Summary by Sections Exports Performance - Exports growth in March was robust, driven by favorable base effects and broad-based recovery across trade partners [4][6]. - For Q1 2025, exports grew by 5.7% YoY, while imports fell by 7.0% YoY, marking a six-quarter low [3]. Import Dynamics - Imports continued to contract, primarily due to sluggish domestic demand, with significant declines in iron ore and agricultural commodities [5][6]. - Notably, iron ore imports fell by -27.0% YoY in value, while oil imports showed improvement, declining only -3.7% YoY [6]. Trade Relationships - China's exports to ASEAN and other emerging markets were strong, with exports to ASEAN increasing by 11.6% YoY in March, benefiting from trade re-routing and China's role as an intermediates supplier [6][7]. - Direct exports to the US, which accounted for 14.7% of total exports in 2024, are expected to decline due to high tariffs, but China may benefit from front-loading by other trade partners [7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the economy, indicating that monetary policy actions may be necessary to support growth amid trade disputes [1][6]. Core Insights - New credit data for March exceeded expectations, with new RMB loans at RMB3,640 billion and total social financing (TSF) at RMB5,888 billion, suggesting a solid economic condition prior to the escalation of trade disputes in April [3][5]. - The report highlights a sequential improvement in credit growth, with outstanding RMB loans growing at 8.4% YoY and TSF growth at 7.4% YoY, marking the first improvement since early 2023 [3][4]. - The housing market showed signs of weakness in April, with primary sales in the top 30 cities down 15.4% YoY, indicating a need for policy intervention to stabilize the economy [5][17]. - The anticipated sequence of monetary policy actions includes liquidity support, a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, and a rate cut, with expectations of 100 basis points of RRR cuts and 40 basis points of rate cuts for the year [1][6]. Summary by Sections Credit Growth - New household short-term loans reached RMB484 billion and long-term loans rose to RMB505 billion in March, indicating a recovery in household borrowing [7]. - Corporate short-term loans were strong at RMB1,440 billion compared to RMB980 billion in March of the previous year, while long-term loans remained stable [7][16]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The report anticipates that monetary policy actions could resume in the second quarter of 2025, with a focus on liquidity support for exporters and potential RRR and rate cuts [1][6]. - The report notes that uncertainties remain high, particularly regarding tariff exemptions and semiconductor policies [6]. Government Bond Issuance - Government bond issuance was robust, reaching RMB1,483 billion in March, contributing to the overall financing environment [7][12].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes a personal investment strategy focused on growth and dividend income, aiming for an easy retirement through a portfolio that prioritizes compounding dividend income and growth [1] - The strategy includes structuring the portfolio to generate monthly dividend income, which is enhanced through dividend reinvestment and annual increases [1] Group 2 - The author has disclosed a beneficial long position in shares of companies such as Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), and SoFi (SOFI), indicating a personal investment interest in these stocks [1] - The article is presented as personal opinion and not as professional investment advice, highlighting the importance of individual research before making investment decisions [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's current share price of $63.25 represents a valuation of approximately 0.7 times its tangible book value per share of $91.52, indicating a significant discount in valuation [1]. Financial Metrics - The tangible book value per share for Citigroup is reported at $91.52 [1]. - The current share price is $63.25, leading to a valuation of around 0.7x tangible book value [1]. Investment Insights - The analysis emphasizes a focus on financials, deep value, special situations, and financial arbitrage, suggesting a strategy that seeks durable and uncorrelated cash flows [1].