Group 1 - Citigroup's long position in ZTE Corporation's H-shares decreased from 7.9% to 7.5% as of January 2, 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has a constructive outlook for the U.S. banking sector in 2026, anticipating strong performance from major Wall Street banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America during the upcoming Q4 2025 earnings season, which is expected to lay the groundwork for sustained profit expansion and a bull market in 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Growth - The upcoming earnings season starting in mid-January will be crucial, with major banks expected to deliver better-than-expected growth and optimistic outlooks, significantly impacting the U.S. and global stock markets [1] - The primary drivers of growth for large banks in 2026 will be the recovery of net interest income (NII) and the resilience of investment banking, wealth management, and equity trading businesses [1][2] Group 2: Net Interest Income (NII) and Operating Leverage - Goldman Sachs expects NII to recover after hitting a low in mid-2024, continuing to rise until 2027, supported by stable expense growth and positive operating leverage [2][5] - The firm emphasizes that the NII recovery cycle remains strong and can extend into 2027, with sensitivity analyses indicating a potential 2% annualized increase in NII and a 3% contribution to earnings per share (EPS) from securities re-pricing [5][14] Group 3: Fee Growth and Cost Management - Core fees are projected to grow by approximately 7% year-over-year in 2026, driven by investment banking, wealth management, and card fees, contributing to overall revenue improvement [9][10] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that while expenses will not see explosive growth, they will remain stable, particularly in investment banking and capital markets [9] Group 4: Capital and Share Buybacks - Regulatory reforms under the Trump administration are expected to enhance capital returns, with potential buybacks projected to increase significantly to around $172 billion in 2026, representing a 24% year-over-year growth [11][18] - The current excess capital among major banks is estimated at $80 billion, which could rise to $205 billion with regulatory easing, providing substantial support for buybacks [11] Group 5: Preferred Bank Stocks - Based on the aforementioned factors, Goldman Sachs' preferred bank stock list includes Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, U.S. Bancorp, and Wells Fargo, all of which are expected to benefit from improving NII, operational leverage, and strong capital positions [15][18] - The valuation metrics for these preferred stocks remain low, indicating potential for valuation recovery, especially in a declining interest rate environment [18]

作者：罗德里戈・坎波斯 利比・乔治 2026 年是拉美地区的关键选举年，美国总统唐纳德・特朗普在委内瑞拉与阿根廷接连采取强硬举措， 进一步助推拉美地区整体政治风向右转。投资者预期该地区将推行利好市场的改革政策，外资涌入拉美 市场的意愿显著升温。 上周末美国推动罢免委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯・马杜罗后，委内瑞拉违约债券价格暴涨。而特朗普政府去 年的另一项政治豪赌也已见成效 —— 当时美方为拉美意识形态盟友、阿根廷总统哈维尔・米莱提供了 高达 400 亿美元的财政支持，随后米莱所在政党在关键的中期选举中表现亮眼。 放在以往，特朗普这种强硬的外部干预手段很可能引发拉美地区强烈的反制声浪，谴责其粗暴干涉他国 内政。但如今，随着拉美地区政治整体向右偏转，虽然并非所有国家都对美方举措表示欢迎，外界的反 应却相对温和。投资者认为，政策转向利好市场将推动拉美金融资产价值走高。 格雷梅西资产管理公司首席投资官兼管理合伙人罗伯特・柯尼希斯伯格表示："从历史经验来看，拉美 地区的发展趋势往往具有联动效应，呈现出齐头并进的浪潮式特征。当前拉美地区的政治风向，显然正 从左翼全面转向右翼。" 他指出，正是基于这种判断，投资者更愿意增加对拉美市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, influenced by President Trump's announcement to prohibit large institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes, raising concerns about the housing market and economic slowdown [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw most indices decline, with the Dow Jones dropping nearly 1% and the S&P 1500 residential construction index falling by up to 2.2% [1]. - Blackstone's stock plummeted by as much as 9.3%, while major banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup also experienced declines [2]. - The overall sentiment in the market was negative, with significant drops in energy stocks, including ExxonMobil and Chevron [3]. Group 2: Housing Market Impact - President Trump's proposed measures aim to make housing more affordable for Americans by restricting institutional investors from buying single-family homes, which he claims has made homeownership increasingly unattainable for many, especially young people [2]. - Analysts express skepticism about the actual impact of the ban on housing prices, noting that institutional investors hold a relatively small share of the overall market [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. private sector added 41,000 jobs in December, which was below the market's expectations of approximately 50,000 [5]. - Mortgage rates decreased from 6.32% to 6.25%, the lowest since September 2024, but this decline did not stimulate mortgage demand, as applications fell by 9.7% during the holiday period [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the **Chinese economy** and the **Renminbi (RMB)** exchange rate dynamics, particularly in the context of a significant trade surplus exceeding **US$1 trillion** [1][4][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **RMB Appreciation Expectations**: There is a growing expectation for RMB appreciation due to a historic trade surplus, contrasting with last year's consensus for depreciation amid US tariff concerns [4][6]. - **External vs. Internal Rebalancing**: A stronger RMB may aid in external rebalancing but is unlikely to address internal imbalances without substantial domestic stimulus [1][34]. - **Trade Surplus Dynamics**: The trade surplus is projected to reach **US$1.2 trillion** in 2025, with net exports contributing **1.4 percentage points** to GDP growth, defying previous bearish expectations [5][6]. - **Current Account Balance**: China's current account balance could hit **3.2% of GDP**, the highest since 2010, indicating a significant external imbalance [6]. - **RMB as a Stabilizer**: The RMB exchange rate has not functioned as an automatic stabilizer, with fluctuations remaining narrow between **7.1 and 7.3** before December 2025 [7][31]. - **Household Savings and Consumption**: Record-high household deposits of **RMB 163 trillion** (~US$23 trillion) reflect a culture of saving rather than spending, with a household savings rate of **36.5%**, up from **33.7%** pre-COVID [14][20]. - **Government Stimulus Needs**: The government must implement more direct stimulus measures to meet the **5% growth target**, as traditional infrastructure investments may not suffice [15][34]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Confidence**: Low consumer confidence, rather than purchasing power, is identified as a primary factor in underconsumption, exacerbated by a thin social safety net and grim employment expectations [20][31]. - **Potential for Deflation**: The anticipated broad-based deflation could result from insufficient consumer spending and the government's focus on stabilizing investment [19][34]. - **RMB Exchange Rate Forecast**: A "managed appreciation" of the RMB is expected in 2026, with targets of approximately **6.9** in the short term and **6.8** in the medium term, contingent on domestic stimulus measures [35][36]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call regarding the Chinese economy and RMB dynamics, highlighting the complexities of rebalancing efforts and the need for targeted government interventions.

Group 1 - Citigroup has significantly outperformed the broader market, with a 66% increase last year, driven by one of the highest dividend yields among large-cap banks [1] - Over the last three years, Citigroup's stock has risen by 150%, outperforming the KBW Bank Invesco ETF [2] - Analysts have a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" for Citigroup, with recent upgrades from J.P. Morgan and other brokerages raising target prices to $150, $130, and $123 [4] Group 2 - Citigroup is undergoing a turnaround strategy, which includes flattening its organizational structure, reducing bureaucracy, and cutting its workforce to lower costs [5] - The bank has exited consumer banking in several international markets, freeing up capital and consolidating into five core businesses [5] - Citigroup has received board approval to exit its remaining business in Russia, which, despite an after-tax hit of $1.1 billion, is viewed positively for its capital ratios [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant decline in the US and European stock markets, driven by President Trump's announcement to potentially ban large institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes, raising concerns about the housing market and economic slowdown [1][3]. Market Performance - The US stock market saw a notable drop, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 1% and Blackstone experiencing a decline of up to 9.3%. The S&P 1500 residential building index decreased by as much as 2.2% [1][3]. - Bank stocks were broadly down, with JPMorgan falling over 2%, Goldman Sachs down more than 1%, and Bank of America dropping nearly 3% [3]. Real Estate Sector Impact - Trump's proposed measures aim to make housing more affordable for Americans, particularly younger individuals, by limiting institutional investment in single-family rentals. This could significantly impact the business of private equity firms and real estate investment trusts [3][4]. - Some analysts question the actual impact of the ban on housing prices, noting that institutional investors hold a relatively small share of the overall market [4]. Energy Sector Reaction - The energy sector also faced declines, with ExxonMobil down over 2% and Chevron down 0.86%. Trump announced that the US would acquire 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned oil from Venezuela [4]. Dollar Index and Global Market Effects - The dollar index rebounded, affecting global market sentiment and leading to declines in international precious metals and commodities. COMEX gold futures fell by 0.65% to $4467.1 per ounce, while silver futures dropped by 3.77% to $77.98 per ounce [6][7]. - The decline in mortgage rates to 6.25% did not stimulate demand, as mortgage applications fell by 9.7% during the holiday period [7].

Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street banks have opted out of advising on the $1.4 billion IPO of India's SBI Funds Management due to low fees offered by shareholders [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Details - The IPO is expected to raise approximately $1.4 billion, valuing SBI Funds Management at around $14 billion [7]. - Shareholders, including the State Bank of India and France's Amundi SA, have offered fees of about 0.01% of the issue size, which is considered extremely low by bankers [3]. Group 2: Bank Participation - Citigroup withdrew from the advisory role due to fee concerns and was replaced by Jefferies Financial Group [2]. - JPMorgan Chase also decided not to pursue the transaction for similar reasons [2]. - Other banks selected for the IPO include Kotak Mahindra Capital, Axis Bank, SBI Capital Markets, and several others [4]. Group 3: Fee Trends and Market Context - The average fee for IPOs last year was 1.86% of the issue size, an increase from 1.67% in 2024, highlighting the low fee structure of this particular IPO [3]. - There is a trend of banks accepting symbolic fees in government-linked deals to gain prestige and long-term relationships, as seen in a previous share sale by State Bank [5]. - With over 200 private-sector firms expected to enter the IPO market this year, investment banks are becoming more selective in their engagements [5][6].

格隆汇1月7日｜花旗将雪佛龙的目标价从185美元下调至179美元，维持"买入"评级。(格隆汇) ...

当地时间6日，由于投资者对金属期货供应紧张的担忧情绪有所升温，包括铜和镍在内的多种工业金属 期货价格大幅上涨。 其中，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期镍价格当天收涨8.95%，报每吨18524美元，盘中一度触及 2024年6月5日以来高点。当天，三个月期铜价格上涨1.9%，报每吨13238美元，盘中一度升至13387.50 美元的历史新高。花旗集团6日将今年第一季度期铜目标价从之前的每吨12000美元上调至每吨14000美 元。 其中，伦敦金属交易所三个月期锡价格上涨4.85%，报每吨44526美元，盘中一度触及2022年3月以来的 最高点。6日，三个月期铝价格上涨1.41%，报每吨3129美元，盘中一度触及2022年4月以来最高点。 记者：张曼曼 其他工业金属价格6日也普遍上涨。 ...