转自：新华财经 上述研报还认为，点阵图指引年内还有50bps降息符合预期，预计美联储将在10月和12月的议息会议上 分别再次降息25bps。等到新任美联储主席的最终人选落地后，2026年利率路径才会更加清晰。市场方 面，降息落地后美债再现"买预期+卖事实"、美股"补涨"特征依旧，道指和小盘股表现较好。建议相对 淡化此次会议对明年利率路径的指引，预计在本轮降息交易中美元可能维持弱势状态、预计黄金仍有不 错表现。 新华财经上海9月18日电 中信证券研报分析认为，美联储2025年9月议息会议降息25bps，符合市场预 期。鲍威尔表示这是一次风险管理式降息，在双重使命中偏向控制就业市场下行风险。本次点阵图显示 今年目标利率中枢为3.6%，低于6月显示的3.9%，同时上调今年美国经济增速预测，维持今年美国通胀 和失业率预测不变。 编辑：林郑宏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have historically had a significant short-term positive impact on the Hong Kong stock market, with distinct patterns observed based on the type of rate cut [1] Group 1: Impact of Rate Cuts - Most rate cut cycles, except for the unique situations in 2019 and 2020, have led to short-term increases in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - In accommodative rate cuts, the performance of the Hong Kong stock market has shown a phase-synchronized relationship with foreign capital flows, as seen in 2001 and 2007 [1] - The 2020 rate cut, which exceeded expectations, triggered panic and led to a short-term withdrawal of foreign capital, resulting in a decline in the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 2: Divergence in Market Behavior - In preemptive rate cuts, the Hong Kong stock market often moves in the opposite direction of foreign capital flows, driven by the expansion of China's policy space [1] - During the 1998 Asian financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts created a favorable environment for the Hong Kong market's financial defense [1] - The direct impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in 2024 is expected to be limited, with the key driver for the Hong Kong stock market's rise being China's policy measures [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Current observations indicate a cooling U.S. job market, but economic resilience remains, with rate cuts aimed at addressing potential risks [1] - Short-term growth sectors such as technology, consumer discretionary, and pharmaceuticals are likely to benefit from these conditions [1] - If China initiates synchronized easing with the U.S., it could lead to increased foreign capital inflows into the Hong Kong stock market, highlighting the core asset allocation value in the current environment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Citic Securities expects the US dollar to remain weak during the current interest rate cut cycle, while gold is anticipated to perform well [1] - The Federal Reserve is projected to cut rates by 25 basis points at the September 2025 meeting, aligning with market expectations [1] - The dot plot indicates an additional 50 basis points of cuts within the year, which is also in line with expectations [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities anticipates further rate cuts of 25 basis points at the upcoming meetings in October and December [1] - The clarity on the interest rate path for 2026 will depend on the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chair [1] - Following the rate cut, the market exhibited a "buy the rumor, sell the news" behavior, with the Dow Jones and small-cap stocks performing well [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，白酒行业正在筑底，考虑到当前库存、价格、政策影响、消 费场景恢复、上市公司公布报表等众多因素，中信证券判断本轮行业基本面底有望出现在2025三季度， 预计今年三季度是行业动销、价格、市场信心压力最大的阶段，预计今年下半年是白酒上市公司报表业 绩压力最大的阶段，再考虑到后续逐步复苏趋势明确，看好白酒行业底部配置机会。啤酒下半年基数较 低，中信证券预计三季度报表表现维持稳定态势。 风险因素： 中信证券主要观点如下： 估值回落至长期低位，股东回报提升增厚投资安全边际。 2025年至今（2025/1/1~9/12），酒类板块整体股价+1.1%，跑输沪深300指数13.8ppts；本周 （2025/9/8~9/12），酒鬼酒（+5.57%）、古井贡酒（+3.78%）、山西汾酒（+3.11%）为涨幅前三的酒 企。目前，白酒板块整体市盈率（TTM）已回落至19.9x，分别处在1年/3年/5年/10年/上市以来的 60%/26%/16%/10%/17%分位；啤酒板块整体市盈率（TTM）为22.8x，分别处在1年/3年/5年/10年/上市 以来的3%/4%/2%/1%/1%分位。 白酒： ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，美联储2025年9月议息会议降息25bps，符合市场预期。鲍威 尔表示这是一次风险管理式降息，在双重使命中偏向控制就业市场下行风险。本次点阵图显示今年目标 利率中枢为3.6%，低于6月显示的3.9%，同时上调今年美国经济增速预测，维持今年美国通胀和失业率 预测不变。点阵图指引年内还有50bps降息符合预期，依旧预计美联储将在10月和12月的议息会议上分 别再次降息25bps。等到新任美联储主席的最终人选落地后，2026年利率路径才会更加清晰。 市场方面，降息落地后美债再现"买预期+卖事实"、美股"补涨"特征依旧，道指和小盘股表现较好。建 议相对淡化此次会议对明年利率路径的指引，预计在本轮降息交易中美元可能维持弱势状态、预计黄金 仍有不错表现。 中信证券主要观点如下： 2025年9月美联储议息会议声明要点： 1)利率工具方面，委员会决定降息25bps，将联邦基金利率的目标区间下调至4.00-4.25%，符合市场预 期。此次利率决议未得到一致同意，临时理事米兰投票支持降息50bps。 2)资产负债表方面，委员会维持缩表节奏不变，美国国债每月赎回上限为50亿美元、机构债务和M ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a preventive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has highlighted the value of core asset allocation in the Hong Kong stock market [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve's past interest rate cuts have significantly boosted the Hong Kong stock market in the short term, with the exception of the unique circumstances in 2019 and 2020 [1][3]. - The current economic conditions in the U.S. show signs of cooling employment but resilient economic fundamentals, indicating that the rate cut aims to address potential risks [1][4]. - Market expectations for a 25bps or 50bps rate cut in September are at 89% and 11%, respectively, with a general forecast of 2-3 rate cuts in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Impact on Hong Kong Stock Market - The impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts on the Hong Kong stock market is characterized by two types: preventive and relief cuts, with different effects on foreign capital flows [2][3]. - In preventive rate cuts, the resilience of the U.S. economy may suppress the liquidity easing effects, leading to limited foreign capital inflow into Hong Kong [2]. - Conversely, relief rate cuts may initially attract foreign capital due to a weakening U.S. economy, but long-term outflows may occur due to declining global risk appetite [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The current preventive rate cut is expected to provide marginal support to the Hong Kong stock market, particularly benefiting growth sectors such as technology, consumer discretionary, and pharmaceuticals [4]. - The potential for synchronized monetary easing between the U.S. and China could lead to increased foreign capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks, especially as active foreign capital has been returning to China since August [4]. - The allocation of foreign capital to Chinese assets remains low at 7.0%, indicating significant room for growth as China's economic stabilization policies take effect [4].

只要在资本市场时间够久，你总能看到各种各样做梦也想不到的事儿。 9月17日午后，"券商一哥"中信证券突然直线跳水。但若说是跌幅，仅仅从上涨0.61%，到最多下跌1.02%，振幅还不足2%。13:00至13:30，中信证券成交 金额为18.48亿元，换手率0.52%。 然后，13:30至15:00，中信证券一直低位徘徊。其中14:24到14:26有短暂小反抽，但只是昙花一现，最后半小时几乎走成了一条直线。而卖一压单高达31 亿元之多。 作为A股流通市值超过3500亿元的"券商一哥"，大单压顶之下，分时图乍一看仿佛跌停板，再仔细一看原来才跌了不到1%。 不仅是中信证券，多只头部券商股也出现了类似的走势。 仿佛有一只无形的手，在调控券商股。尤其是3900点关口，这种走势引发了众多投资者好奇，也有不少人在股吧中讨论。 有投资者就表示："可能是某些资金担心券商拉得太快，一把将指数带飞吧，良苦用心压。" | | | · 60 55 155 55 155 30分 · | | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 叠加 九转 画线 工具 6 2 » | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, aligning with market expectations, as stated in a report by CITIC Securities [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The rate cut is described as a risk management measure, with a focus on mitigating risks in the employment market [1] - The dot plot indicates a target interest rate midpoint of 3.6% for this year, down from the previously indicated 3.9% in June [1] - The Federal Reserve has raised its economic growth forecast for the U.S. while maintaining its predictions for inflation and unemployment rates [1] Group 2: Future Projections - CITIC Securities anticipates further rate cuts of 25 basis points in the upcoming meetings in October and December [1] - Clarity on the interest rate path for 2026 is expected only after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chair [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, the U.S. Treasury market exhibited a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" behavior, while U.S. stocks showed characteristics of "catching up," with the Dow Jones and small-cap stocks performing well [1] - The report suggests downplaying the guidance from this meeting regarding next year's interest rate path, predicting a continued weak status for the U.S. dollar and a favorable outlook for gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the demand for iodine is expected to surge due to emerging needs such as perovskite solar cells and solid-state batteries, leading to a potential increase in iodine prices [1] Group 1: Emerging Demand - Iodine is a necessary component in perovskite photovoltaic materials, with mainstream manufacturers using iodine-based materials. CITIC Securities estimates that approximately 10 tons of iodine are required for 1 GW of perovskite solar cell modules [1] - Iodine is also an important additive in sulfide solid electrolytes, with companies like Dingsheng Technology and Yuyuan Group actively promoting its use. CITIC Securities estimates that around 90 tons of iodine are needed for 1 GWh of solid-state batteries [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The supply of iodine is relatively rigid due to constraints from overseas giants, while traditional demand from pharmaceuticals and display panels remains stable, making iodine prices more likely to rise than fall [1] - CITIC Securities predicts that once the emerging demand is fully realized, iodine prices are likely to increase significantly [1] Group 3: Investment Focus - Companies with high-quality iodine recovery capacity, large-scale hydrogen iodide production capacity, and overseas iodine mining rights are recommended for investment focus [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025 aligns with market expectations, indicating a risk management approach focused on mitigating employment market downturn risks [1] - The dot plot shows a revised target interest rate midpoint of 3.6% for this year, down from 3.9% in June, while maintaining the forecasts for inflation and unemployment rates unchanged [1] - The expectation of an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts this year is consistent with prior predictions, with further cuts anticipated in the October and December meetings [1] Group 2 - Following the rate cut, the market exhibited a "buy the rumor, sell the news" behavior in U.S. Treasuries, while U.S. stocks showed a "catch-up" characteristic, with the Dow Jones and small-cap stocks performing well [1] - It is suggested to downplay the guidance on next year's interest rate path from this meeting, with expectations that the U.S. dollar may remain weak during this round of rate cuts, while gold is expected to perform well [1]