1月20日，中国中免（601888.SH/1880.HK）早间发布公告，宣布公司于19日与DFS达成重大战略合作， 将以不超过3.95亿美元收购DFS港澳地区零售门店及其大中华区的无形资产（包括DFS旗下一系列的品 牌与IP于大中华区的独家使用权），并获LVMH集团及DFS创始人Miller家族认购其在香港新发行的H股 股份。 01 解析交易背后的三重核心价值 消息公布后，早间开盘中国中免应声大涨，其H股股一度冲高涨超11%，A股一度涨超6%。 资本市场投出信心票的背后，正是看到了此次公告显示出的中国中免的一次战略级"破圈"，这将标志着 中国中免正从依托政策红利的国内免税巨头，向具备全球资源整合能力的奢侈品消费平台跃迁。 从交易来看，这背后是一场关乎资产、能力与信用的深度整合。 首先，可以看到的是交易带来的最直观价值，在于中国中免门店网络的战略性补强与枢纽化升级。 此次收购将DFS位于香港及澳门核心地段的旅游零售店铺纳入囊中，这些门店不仅是亚洲顶级的奢侈品 消费地标，更因其成熟的运营体系和高净值客群，成为连接区域消费流量的关键节点。 这意味着中免在粤港澳大湾区的线下高端零售布局获得了即时且高质量的网络延伸，其 ...

1月20日，中国中免（601888.SH/1880.HK）早间发布公告，宣布公司于19日与DFS达成重大战略合作， 将以不超过3.95亿美元收购DFS港澳地区零售门店及其大中华区的无形资产（包括DFS旗下一系列的品 牌与IP于大中华区的独家使用权），并获LVMH集团及DFS创始人Miller家族认购其在香港新发行的H股 股份。 消息公布后，早间开盘中国中免应声大涨，其H股股一度冲高涨超11%，A股一度涨超6%。 资本市场投出信心票的背后，正是看到了此次公告显示出的中国中免的一次战略级"破圈"，这将标志着 中国中免正从依托政策红利的国内免税巨头，向具备全球资源整合能力的奢侈品消费平台跃迁。 这意味着中免在粤港澳大湾区的线下高端零售布局获得了即时且高质量的网络延伸，其业务辐射范围与 市场层次得到实质性拓展。这些成熟门店所承载的高客单价消费流量，将能够快速转化为公司报表上有 质量的营收与利润贡献。 更重要的是，这些门店作为成熟的商业枢纽，为中免构建更完整、更具韧性的跨境消费服务体系提供了 现成的战略支点。 硬资产的背后，还有更珍贵的无形资产赋能。 此次中免还将获得DFS在大中华区的品牌IP独家使用权。DFS长达六十 ...

商贸零售 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2026 年 1 月 21 日 601888.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 96.09 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 6.4 16.0 36.6 55.3 相对上证综指 4.2 10.3 30.2 28.5 发行股数 (百万) 2,068.86 (9%) 5% 18% 32% 45% 59% Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 中国中免 上证综指 | 流通股 (百万) | 2,068.86 | | --- | --- | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 198,796.67 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 4,528.30 | | 主要股东持股比例（%） | | | 中国旅游集团有限公司 | 50.3 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2026 年 1 月 20 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《中国中免》20250901 《中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The acquisition of DFS's Greater China travel retail business for up to $395 million (approximately RMB 2.75 billion) is expected to enhance the company's coverage of high-end consumer segments and strengthen its competitive advantage in the Greater China region [2][3] - The strategic partnership with LVMH aims to expand the company's channel advantages through collaboration in product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience [3] Financial Projections - The audited revenue and net profit for DFS Greater China are projected to be RMB 4.149 billion and RMB 128 million for 2024, respectively, and RMB 2.754 billion and RMB 133 million for the first nine months of 2025 [4] - The adjusted EPS forecasts for the company are set at RMB 1.89, RMB 2.64, and RMB 3.34 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 50.84, 36.39, and 28.79 [4] - Revenue growth rates are projected at -16.38% for 2024 and -3.08% for 2025, followed by a recovery of 27.95% in 2026 and 15.46% in 2027 [8]

Core Viewpoint - China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (China Duty Free) has announced a partnership with LVMH and DFS Group to acquire DFS's travel retail business in Hong Kong and Macau for up to $395 million, enhancing its market presence in the Greater China region [2][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - China Duty Free will acquire 100% of DFS Cotai Limitada and all operational assets of DFS stores in Hong Kong and Macau, excluding the City of Dreams store in Macau [3]. - The acquisition includes exclusive rights to a series of brands and intellectual properties under DFS in the Greater China region [2]. - LVMH and Robert Miller will subscribe to new H-shares issued by China Duty Free as part of the transaction, which will be a small portion of the proceeds from the sale [3]. Group 2: Strategic Cooperation - A strategic cooperation memorandum has been signed between China Duty Free and LVMH to establish a partnership in retail sectors aligned with their strategic interests [5]. - This collaboration aims to leverage the strengths of both companies to deepen cooperation in the Greater China region and achieve mutual benefits [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Context - DFS reported a revenue of 2.754 billion yuan and a net profit of 133 million yuan from its Hong Kong and Macau operations in the first three quarters of the 2025 fiscal year [6]. - China Duty Free's revenue for the same period was 39.86 billion yuan, a decline of 7.34% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.42 billion yuan, down 18.89% [6]. - The luxury goods market is projected to recover, with a forecasted growth of 3% to 5% in 2026, following a slight decline in 2025 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 116.10 CNY [5][18]. Core Insights - The acquisition of DFS's Greater China business is expected to significantly enhance the company's premium capability and international influence in the global luxury goods sector, positioning it as a competitive player in tourism retail [2][3]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.947 billion CNY, 5.328 billion CNY, and 6.126 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.91 CNY, 2.58 CNY, and 2.96 CNY [3][4]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 67.54 billion CNY, with a decrease to 56.47 billion CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 68.96 billion CNY in 2026 and 87.76 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 28.7% and 27.3% in those years [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline to 4.267 billion CNY in 2024, before increasing to 5.328 billion CNY in 2026 and 6.126 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a growth of 35.0% and 15.0% respectively [4][12]. - The company's net asset return rate is projected to improve from 7.0% in 2025 to 9.8% in 2027 [4][12]. Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire DFS's Greater China tourism retail business for up to 395 million USD, which includes 100% equity of DFS Cotai Limitada and assets from two core stores in Hong Kong [3][12]. - The acquisition will be funded entirely by the company's own capital, ensuring that existing business operations remain unaffected [3][12]. Strategic Partnerships - The company has signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with LVMH, aiming for deep collaboration in product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience [3][12].

Core Viewpoint - The duty-free sales in Hainan for October-November 2025 reached 4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, benefiting from a low base and new policies [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Hainan's duty-free sales in October-November 2025 were approximately 4.8 billion yuan, up 19.8% year-on-year, driven by a low base in 2024 and new duty-free policies [1] - In the first week following the closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, duty-free shopping amounted to about 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.9%, supported by government and operator subsidies [1] - The expected year-on-year growth rate for China Duty Free Group's (CDFG) Hainan business in Q4 is projected to be between 20% and 25% [1] Group 2: Airport and Online Sales - In October-November, the number of inbound and outbound passengers at Shanghai Airport reached 6.54 million, a year-on-year increase of 22%, while Beijing Capital Airport saw 3 million passengers, up 18% year-on-year, indicating potential growth in offline duty-free sales [2] - However, online sales for CDFG's Day Sun brand have significantly declined due to compliance issues and a shift in business model from general trade to cross-border e-commerce, leading to higher product pricing [2] - The online business's share is expected to decrease substantially due to these challenges [2] Group 3: Financial Projections - CDFG's Q4 revenue is expected to be 14.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding non-recurring gains and losses) of 900 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 155% [2] - The gross margin for Q4 is anticipated to decline by 2 percentage points, influenced by changes in product mix and the impact of low-margin online sales [2] - For 2025 and 2026, the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.85 billion yuan and 4.99 billion yuan, respectively, with a strong recommendation for investment [3]

Group 1 - The tourism retail sector increased by 2.88% on January 20, with China Duty Free Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] - China Duty Free Group's stock closed at 96.09, reflecting a 2.88% increase, with a trading volume of 849,000 shares and a transaction value of 82.39 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The tourism retail sector saw a net inflow of 394 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 130 million yuan [1] - The breakdown of fund flows indicates that institutional investors had a net inflow of 394 million yuan, while speculative funds had a net outflow of 264 million yuan [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs held an investor conference call discussing the latest trends and growth dynamics in Hainan's duty-free sales, with insights from a tourism retail expert [1] - The expert expressed cautious optimism for Hainan's duty-free sales growth by 2026, anticipating sustained healthy growth in inbound tourism and increased consumption of high-priced items like clothing and electronics [1] - The expert noted that competition among existing duty-free operators remains relatively stable, with China Duty Free Group expected to maintain a market share of 70% to 80% [1] Group 2 - The expert indicated that the issuance of consumption vouchers may slow down, as evidenced by a recent deceleration in distribution speed in Sanya [1] - The expert does not expect last year's policy relaxations to significantly boost sales among Hainan residents, as they contributed only 11 million RMB to sales, accounting for less than 1% [1] - China Duty Free Group continues to succeed by focusing on product variety and inventory levels, offering more bundled packages rather than aggressive price discounts [2]

Group 1 - China Duty Free Group (CDFG) announced the acquisition of DFS Group's travel retail business in Greater China for up to $395 million in cash [2] - DFS Group is a leading luxury travel retailer established in 1960, with stores located in major airports and city centers globally [4] - CDFG is a large publicly listed company controlled by China Tourism Group, operating around 200 duty-free stores in over 100 cities in China and abroad [4] Group 2 - LVMH Group and Robert Miller's family will participate in CDFG's capital increase by subscribing to newly issued H-shares in Hong Kong, with the subscription amount being part of the sale consideration [4] - CDFG plans to establish a cooperative relationship with LVMH in retail sectors aligned with their strategies, focusing on product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience [4]