Group 1 - The US stock market showed strong performance this summer, with the S&P 500 index rising nearly 9% from the spring low [1] - Deutsche Bank warns that the impacts of tariffs and immigration policies will continue to affect the labor market and economy [1][3] - Current tariff revenue is approximately 10% of the value of imported goods, but actual rates may stabilize between 15%-20% depending on final tariffs on chips and automobiles [1][3] Group 2 - The low current tariff revenue is attributed to transshipment trade effects and the advance declaration of duty-free imports of pharmaceuticals and electronics [3] - An increase in actual tariff rates by 15% on a $3 trillion import scale could generate an additional $450 billion in tax revenue, tightening fiscal policy by 1.5% of GDP [3] - The shortage of immigrant labor is expected to significantly impact non-farm employment growth, with current growth rates indicating potential economic recession [3][5] Group 3 - The termination of several Biden-era work visa programs will further strain the labor market, affecting over 700,000 individuals from specific programs [5]

Core Viewpoint - UK retail stocks are expected to face a more challenging environment in the second half of the year due to weakening fundamental drivers such as wage growth and consumer spending [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Wage growth is anticipated to slow down despite a strong increase expected at the end of 2024 and early 2025 [1] - Concerns regarding unemployment and job security are rising among consumers [1] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence surveys remain low, indicating a potential worsening of the situation [1]

Summary of Deutsche Bank Group Research on Japan Economic Perspectives Industry/Company Involved - **Industry**: Japanese Economy - **Company**: Deutsche Bank Group Key Points and Arguments Economic Growth Forecasts - The growth forecast for fiscal 2025 has been revised upward from 0.6% to 1.0% based on 2Q 2025 GDP figures, which showed a real GDP growth rate of 1.0% saar, exceeding market consensus of 0.3% [4][5] - The forecast for fiscal 2026 has been revised downward from 1.1% to 0.9% [4][5] - Growth forecasts continue to exceed consensus estimates [5] Tariff Negotiations and Economic Impact - Reciprocal tariffs with the US will be raised to 15%, while tariffs on automobiles will be lowered [4][9] - The impact of the US tariff increase on the real economy has been limited so far, with no significant change in export volumes to the US [10] - The expected impact on growth rates due to tariff changes is -0.1% for fiscal 2025 and 2026 [9] Inflation and Consumption Trends - Despite high inflation, real private consumption is on a moderate upward trend, primarily due to increases in real employee compensation [15] - Real employee compensation remains below pre-pandemic levels, with a significant negative real wage gap of about -4% in 2Q 2025 [15][23] - Inflation is expected to decelerate moderately but is unlikely to fall significantly below 2% [23] Monetary Policy Outlook - No significant changes in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) stance on interest rate hikes are expected unless Takaichi becomes prime minister [4][46] - An interest rate hike is anticipated in October, influenced by the political calendar and economic measures [46][47] Political Landscape and Future Cooperation - The political situation will be influenced by the outcome of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, with potential cooperation with opposition parties depending on the outcome [38][42] - If Prime Minister Ishiba remains in office, cooperation with the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) or the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) is likely [38][42] Fiscal Policy Uncertainty - High uncertainty exists regarding future economic measures, with a placeholder assumption of a supplementary budget of about 15 trillion yen [34] - Further increases in defense spending sought by the US government are not reflected in the current economic outlook [34] Employment and Wage Dynamics - The number of employees has increased at an annual rate of about 0.7-0.8%, contributing to the rise in real employee compensation [15] - Nominal wage increases of at least 3% are deemed necessary to address the negative real wage gap [15] Long-term Economic Policy Trends - The long-term trend in economic policy is shifting from monetary policy to fiscal policy, focusing more on household-oriented policies rather than corporate-oriented ones [45][42] Other Important Content - The presence of a Liberal Democratic Party presidential election will significantly influence future political cooperation and economic policy direction [38][42] - The economic measures and their scale will be critical in shaping the economic outlook, with potential implications for fiscal policy and public sentiment regarding inflation and consumption [34][23]

Summary of Deutsche Bank Group Research on Japan Economic Perspectives Industry/Company Involved - **Industry**: Japanese Economy - **Company**: Deutsche Bank Group Key Points and Arguments Economic Growth Forecasts - The growth forecast for fiscal 2025 has been revised upward from 0.6% to 1.0% due to improved GDP figures for 2Q 2025, which recorded a real GDP growth rate of 1.0% saar, surpassing the market consensus of 0.3% [4][5] - The forecast for fiscal 2026 has been revised downward from 1.1% to 0.9% [4][5] - Growth forecasts continue to exceed consensus estimates [5] Tariff Negotiations and Economic Impact - Reciprocal tariffs with the US will be raised to 15%, while tariffs on automobiles will be lowered [4][9] - The impact of the US tariff increase on the real economy has been limited so far, with no significant change in export volumes to the US despite a 25% tariff on automobiles [10] - The expected impact on growth rates from the tariff changes is a reduction of -0.1% for fiscal 2025 and 2026 [9] Inflation and Consumption Trends - Despite high inflation exceeding 3%, real private consumption is on a moderate upward trend, primarily due to increases in real employee compensation [15] - Real employee compensation remains below pre-pandemic levels, with a significant negative real wage gap of about -4% in 2Q 2025 [15][23] - Inflation is expected to decelerate moderately but is unlikely to fall significantly below 2% [23] Political Landscape and Monetary Policy - The political situation, particularly regarding the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, will influence future economic measures and monetary policy [34][38] - An interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected in October, contingent on the political landscape [46][47] - The BoJ's stance on interest rate hikes is not expected to change significantly unless Takaichi becomes prime minister [46] Fiscal Policy Uncertainty - There is high uncertainty regarding future economic measures, with assumptions of a supplementary budget similar to last year (approximately 15 trillion yen) [34] - The potential for increased defense spending sought by the US government is not reflected in the current economic outlook [34] Employment and Wage Dynamics - The number of employees has increased at an annual rate of about 0.7-0.8%, contributing to the rise in real employee compensation [15] - The recovery in real employee compensation in Japan is notably weaker compared to other major countries [15][24] Long-term Economic Policy Trends - Regardless of political outcomes, long-term trends in economic policy are expected to continue, focusing on a shift from monetary policy to fiscal policy and from corporate-oriented to household-oriented policies [42][45] Other Important Content - The presence or absence of a change in the LDP president will affect cooperation with opposition parties, which is essential given the lack of a majority in both houses [42] - The upcoming political events and economic data releases are likely to influence the BoJ's policy stance [48]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's Chief Economist Matthew Luzetti indicates that the new monetary policy framework adopted in 2020 is not the primary cause of the Federal Reserve's delayed response and inflation overshoot, but it has objectively contributed to these outcomes [1] Group 1 - Luzetti expects Fed Chair Jerome Powell to emphasize the revision of the Fed's long-term goal statement to align more closely with reality during his key speech on Friday [1] - Potential revisions may include the removal of the 2020 reform content and the re-establishment of the priority for preventive policies [1] - The upcoming speech coincides with a policy turning point, and Luzetti anticipates Powell will also adjust his statements regarding the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank raised the target price for Estée Lauder from $98 to $100 per share [1] Company Summary - The adjustment in target price indicates a positive outlook for Estée Lauder's stock performance [1]

Legal Proceedings - Deutsche Bank and a former manager will enter mediation regarding allegations of wrongful conduct in a criminal case, which the manager claims damaged his career [1] Personnel - The case involves an ex-manager of Deutsche Bank [1]

智通财经APP获悉，2013年，德意志银行(DB.US)将一个敏感的任务交给了冉冉升起的新星Christian Sewing：调查在意大利受到审查的衍生品交易。十多年后的今天，已升任德银首席执行官的Sewing却因 当年处理该任务的方式在一起前员工提起的诉讼中遭受批评。据知情人士透露，该诉讼促使德银重新审 查当年Sewing(当时任首席审计官)以及银行本身是如何处理这一事件的。 法庭文件显示，曾参与相关交易的德银前银行家Dario Schiraldi在一桩金额达1.52亿欧元(约合1.78亿美 元)的诉讼中，要求德银赔偿损失。他声称，德银的行为(包括十多年前由Sewing负责的审计)损害了他的 声誉和收入。 知情人士表示，德银在最近几个月对当年交易调查的复盘中并未发现不当行为。然而，这起预计于12月 在法兰克福法院开庭的诉讼仍将Sewing推到聚光灯下，因为其公开审视了他在全球金融危机最严重时期 所扮演的角色。 Schiraldi及其他五名德银前银行家以及该行曾在2019年被意大利法院裁定与意大利锡耶纳蒙特帕斯基银 行(MPS)串通，通过复杂的衍生品交易掩盖MPS亏损。但2022年，他们在上诉中被宣告无罪。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's interest rate strategists argue that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's assertion regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rates being over one percentage point higher than appropriate levels is incorrect [1] Group 1 - Treasury Secretary Yellen previously stated that "any model" suggests interest rates should be 150 to 175 basis points lower, but efforts to find supporting models have been unsuccessful [1] - The Deutsche Bank team, led by former Federal Reserve economist Matthew Raskin, claims that the rules used by the Federal Reserve in its semi-annual monetary policy report do not clearly indicate a need for rate cuts, let alone cuts of 150 to 175 basis points [1] - The current federal funds rate is within a relatively narrow range of approximately 4% to 4.65%, suggesting that a 25 basis point cut may be reasonable [1]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's interest rate strategy team questions U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset's claims regarding the Federal Reserve's policy rate, stating that his assertions lack model support [1] - Basset suggested on August 13 that the current Federal Reserve policy rate should be lowered by 150 to 175 basis points, but the specific models backing this claim remain unclear [1] - The Deutsche Bank team, led by Matthew Luzkin, indicates that the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report does not provide justification for significant rate cuts, especially to the extent proposed by Basset [1] Group 2 - The current federal funds rate is in a reasonable range of 4% to 4.65%, aligning with results derived from traditional monetary policy models like the Taylor rule [1] - The analysis shows that the current interest rate level is generally consistent with economic fundamentals, allowing for only a minor adjustment of 25 basis points [1] - The report specifically excludes the "first difference rule," which suggests further tightening of monetary policy in the context of persistent inflation above target and no significant rise in unemployment [1] Group 3 - Since December of the previous year, the Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points [4] - Historical trends indicate that policymakers typically lean towards early rate cuts when there are signs of labor market downturns, yet Fed Chair Powell has emphasized a restrictive policy stance [4] - There is a divergence between Powell's cautious approach and the support for rate cuts expressed by two Federal Reserve governors during the July monetary policy meeting [4] Group 4 - Treasury Secretary's advisor Joseph Lavorgna clarifies that Basset's "model" refers to the Fed's long-term neutral rate forecast range of 2.6% to 3.6%, which does not directly correlate with the current policy rate [4] - The Deutsche Bank strategy team reiterates that policy adjustments should be based on real-time economic data rather than long-term forecasts, arguing that substantial rate cuts are not sufficiently justified given ongoing inflation pressures and the labor market's lack of significant deterioration [4]