Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank is losing its competitive edge in leveraged financing transactions, struggling to maintain market share and facing challenges in recent debt underwriting efforts [1][4] Group 1: Market Position and Performance - Deutsche Bank's market share in leveraged financing has dropped to eighth place, controlling only 3.6% of global transactions, down from a peak of 9% in 2014 [1] - The bank's revenue trajectory is declining, with projected income for the first half of 2025 in Europe expected to plummet by 35% to €74 million ($86 million), and a 27% decline in the U.S. market to $145 million [5] Group 2: Strategic Challenges - The decline in Deutsche Bank's leveraged financing business is attributed to multiple factors, including strategic retrenchment under CEO Christian Sewing, regulatory pressures, and a changing market landscape [6] - The scarcity of merger and acquisition transactions has led to a reduction in high-fee projects, while the current focus on debt restructuring is not aligned with management's interests [6] Group 3: Talent and Leadership Issues - The bank has experienced significant talent loss, with key executives leaving for competitors, which has further weakened its position in the leveraged financing market [6][7] - Deutsche Bank is actively working to fill vacancies, having recruited talent from other financial institutions to bolster its capabilities [7] Group 4: Recent Transaction Challenges - The recent underwriting of a $4.3 billion debt for Apollo Global Management's acquisition of International Game Technology faced investor reluctance, forcing the bank to improve terms to close the deal [1] - Other challenging transactions include a $1.2 billion high-yield bond for Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority and difficulties in placing loans for 1440 Foods and Oyo Hotels [8] Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite recent challenges, Deutsche Bank's CFO emphasized the strategic importance of the leveraged debt capital markets (LDCM) business, indicating ongoing investment in this area [8]

Once known as a stalwart in that business — placing among the top five in league tables — Deutsche Bank has lost its luster over the past several years https://t.co/sQGmzTpAvt ...

金十数据7月28日讯，德意志银行分析师Mark Wall表示，美欧贸易协议降低了欧洲央行进一步降息的必 要性。因为协议达成后，欧元区贸易政策的不确定性下降，欧洲央行进一步降息的压力将会减小。欧元 区货币市场预计欧洲央行今年12月降息的可能性不到60%，欧洲央行9月或10月降息的可能性很小。 德银：美欧贸易协定降低了欧洲央行降息的必要性 ...

Group 1 - The core of the U.S. AI action plan is to redefine global power dynamics, positioning AI as a key strategic direction for industrial and informational transformation [1] - Data center electricity consumption in the U.S. is projected to rise from 4.4% of total electricity usage in 2023 to between 6.7% and 12% by 2028, indicating a potential doubling of power demand within five years [1] - The current U.S. power infrastructure may become a critical constraint on AI advancements due to unprecedented pressure from exponential growth in computing power [1] Group 2 - The U.S. is pursuing a three-pronged strategy to address energy challenges: delaying the retirement of key power plants, modernizing the existing transmission network, and investing in advanced technologies like small modular nuclear reactors [3] - The deep connection between the U.S. economy and AI industry is expected to create new growth opportunities while also increasing vulnerability to technological cycles [3] - The capital market is reflecting the pain of energy transition, with significant valuation increases for traditional energy giants and emerging nuclear technology firms, indicating a projected investment of over $100 billion in U.S. power infrastructure over the next five years [5]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank has set a target for a post-tax average return on tangible equity (ROTE) of no less than 10% as part of its 2022-2025 "Global Universal Bank" strategy, reflecting significant improvement in its credit status through business restructuring [1] Group 1 - Deutsche Bank has improved its credit status, leading to upgrades from multiple rating agencies [1] - The actual ROTE for the first half of the year reached 11%, demonstrating the feasibility of the set target [1] - Although still lagging behind other major European peers, the target represents a significant enhancement in performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major investment banks on Wall Street are raising alarms about increasing speculative behavior and rising leverage levels in the U.S. stock market, indicating that bubble risks are accumulating [1]. Group 1: Speculative Activity - Goldman Sachs warns that high-risk activities in the U.S. stock market have surged, with indicators of market speculation reaching historical highs, second only to the 2000 internet bubble and the 2021 retail trading frenzy [2]. - Goldman Sachs' speculation trading indicators show that current levels are at historical peaks, except for the periods of 1998-2001 and 2020-2021 [6]. - The basket of stocks with the highest short interest has seen price increases exceeding 60%, indicating potential for further gains but also increasing the risk of a downturn [7]. Group 2: Leverage Levels - Deutsche Bank highlights that margin debt levels have reached a "dangerous" threshold, with total margin debt exceeding $1 trillion for the first time in history as of June [3][8]. - Margin debt surged by 18.5% over two months, marking the fastest pace of leverage increase since late 1999 or mid-2007, which poses potential threats to credit markets [8]. - Deutsche Bank strategists suggest that unless unexpected tariff reductions or a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve occur, the current market exuberance may not be sustainable [9]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Regulation - Bank of America emphasizes that loose monetary policies and relaxed financial regulations are contributing to rising bubble risks, with global policy rates expected to decline further from 4.4% to 3.9% over the next 12 months [10]. - The consideration of regulatory reforms aimed at increasing retail investor participation is noted, with the expectation that more retail investors will lead to greater liquidity, volatility, and bubble risks [11]. - Despite the stock market reaching new highs driven by economic resilience and optimistic corporate earnings, the S&P 500 index has underperformed compared to international peers this year [12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Deutsche Bank reported a pre-provision profit of EUR 6.2 billion for the first half of 2025, nearly double the same period in 2024 [5] - Net commission and fee income increased by 4% year on year, aligning with the goal to boost revenues from fee-based and capital-light businesses [5] - Net interest income (NII) across key banking book segments was EUR 3.4 billion, up 5% quarter on quarter, with a full-year NII guidance of EUR 13.6 billion [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - All four business divisions delivered double-digit returns in the first half of 2025, with the Corporate Bank positioned to capitalize on investment opportunities in Germany and Europe [6][7] - The Investment Bank is focused on consolidating its position in the European FICC franchise, while the Private Bank is seeing improvements in returns due to transformation efforts [7][8] - Asset Management has over EUR 1 trillion in assets under management, positioning it well for both German and European investors [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan growth of EUR 3 billion was observed in the second quarter, with a strong underlying quality of the loan book [12] - Deposits grew by EUR 4 billion during the second quarter, reflecting a stable and high-quality deposit portfolio [13][14] - The liquidity coverage ratio increased to 136%, driven by lower net cash outflows, indicating a strong liquidity position [14][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Deutsche Bank is on track to meet its 2025 financial targets, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.9% since 2021 [9] - The bank aims to achieve EUR 2.5 billion in operational efficiencies, with EUR 2.2 billion already delivered or expected [9] - The focus remains on self-help and improving internal operations before considering mergers and acquisitions [36][38] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the bank's trajectory towards delivering a return on tangible equity (RoTE) of above 10% and a cost-income ratio below 65% [24] - Despite uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, a reduction in provisioning levels is anticipated in the second half of the year [24] - The bank's strong capital position and second-quarter performance have been recognized by rating upgrades from Morningstar DBRS and Fitch [25] Other Important Information - The CET1 ratio improved to 14.2%, up 42 basis points sequentially, reflecting strong earnings and capital efficiency measures [17][18] - The bank plans to issue between EUR 15 billion and EUR 20 billion to meet 2025 funding requirements, with EUR 10.9 billion already issued year to date [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital distribution policy and CET1 ratio - Management confirmed that the distribution policy remains unchanged, intending to repatriate 50% of earnings via dividends and share buybacks, with a CET1 ratio above 14% allowing for additional distributions [29][30] Question: Ratings direction and expectations - Management expressed optimism about further positive rating revisions from other agencies, following upgrades from Morningstar DBRS and Fitch [31][32] Question: Involvement in M&A activities - Management reiterated a focus on internal improvements before considering M&A, acknowledging mixed conditions for cross-border mergers in Europe [36][38] Question: U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) provisions - Management indicated a reduction in the CRE portfolio due to paydowns and charge-offs, with cumulative credit loss allowances currently at EUR 700 million [49][50] Question: Investment banking pipeline and NDFI lending - Management noted a strong investment banking pipeline, particularly in M&A and equity transactions, while also addressing lending to alternative asset managers [57][62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a pre-provision profit of EUR 6.2 billion, nearly double compared to the same period in 2024 [4] - Net commission and fee income increased by 4% year on year, aligning with the goal to boost revenues from fee-based and capital-light businesses [4] - Net interest income (NII) across key banking book segments was EUR 3.4 billion, up 5% quarter on quarter, with a full-year NII guidance of EUR 13.6 billion [10][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - All four business divisions delivered double-digit returns in the first half of the year [5] - The Corporate Bank is well-positioned to capitalize on investment opportunities in Germany and Europe [6] - The Investment Bank is focused on consolidating its position in the European FICC franchise, while the Private Bank is seeing improvements in returns due to transformation efforts [6][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a compound annual growth rate of 5.9% since 2021, within the target range of 5.5% to 6.5% [7] - The liquidity coverage ratio increased by around two percentage points to 136%, driven by lower net cash outflows [14] - The net stable funding ratio slightly increased to 120, reflecting a stable funding base with over two-thirds of funding from global deposits [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is on track to meet its 2025 financial targets, focusing on operational efficiencies and capital efficiencies [9] - The strategy includes further increasing value generation beyond 2025, with a focus on self-help and improving the bank's fundamentals before considering mergers and acquisitions [35][39] - The company aims to maintain a CET1 ratio above 14% to provide flexibility for additional shareholder distributions [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates a reduction in provisioning levels in the second half of the year despite uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment [24] - The company is optimistic about the recovery of debt capital markets and expects a normalization of activity in the second half of the year [58] - Management is focused on risk management actions to minimize exposure in commercial real estate and is actively working on loan modifications and sales [51][63] Other Important Information - The company has completed around 60% of its issuance plan for the year and plans to issue primarily more senior instruments in the second half [25] - The strong capital position and second-quarter performance led to a rating upgrade from Morningstar DBRS and an upgrade of short-term ratings by Fitch [24][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on capital and shareholder distributions - The company intends to repatriate 50% of earnings via dividends and share buybacks, maintaining a CET1 ratio at the low end of the target range [29] Question: Expectations on ratings and future upgrades - Management is confident that continued delivery of targets will result in further positive rating revisions over time [32] Question: Involvement in M&A over the next eighteen months - The company remains focused on self-help and improving its fundamentals before considering any M&A activity [35][39] Question: Current status of U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) provisions - The cumulative credit loss allowance against the stress test outcome is EUR 700 million, with ongoing efforts to manage and stabilize the portfolio [49][51] Question: Need for new AT1 issuance to call upcoming AT1 securities - The company is assessing the need for new AT1 issuance to call the upcoming AT1 securities, with no decision made yet [48] Question: Investment banking pipeline and market conditions - The investment banking pipeline is strong, but there have been delays in transactions due to market stability concerns [56][58]

Group 1 - The current market is experiencing heightened speculative behavior and rising leverage levels, leading to accumulated bubble risks [1][2][3] - Goldman Sachs indicates that speculative trading activity is at historical highs, only surpassed by the 2000 internet bubble and the 2021 retail trading frenzy [1][2] - Deutsche Bank warns that margin debt has exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, with an 18.5% increase in margin debt over two months, marking the fastest pace since late 1999 or mid-2007 [1][3] Group 2 - Bank of America highlights that loose monetary policy and relaxed financial regulations are contributing to increased bubble risks, with global policy rates expected to drop further [1][4] - The increase in speculative trading is reflected in the rising trading volumes of unprofitable stocks and those with high valuation multiples, particularly among major tech companies and firms involved in digital assets [2][3] - The potential for a widening of high-yield credit spreads by 80 to 120 basis points is anticipated due to the rapid growth of margin debt [3]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank anticipates that the price trends of silver and platinum may align closely with those of gold [1] Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's forecast suggests a correlation between the price movements of silver, platinum, and gold [1]