Group 1: Dollar Outlook - The US dollar is expected to continue weakening, with strategists from JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank indicating a bearish sentiment among traders, the highest in five years [1] - The dollar index has dropped 6% against a basket of currencies this year, reflecting concerns over the unpredictability of US policy [1] - There is skepticism among investors regarding the Trump administration's intentions to weaken the dollar to support US manufacturing [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index rose 4.5% this week, driven by optimism in tech stocks and subdued inflation data, with US stock funds attracting approximately $19.8 billion in inflows, the first in five weeks [4] - Despite a brief rise in the dollar following news of a temporary tariff reduction between the US and China, it later retraced most of its gains, indicating a lack of confidence from international investors in the US narrative [4] Group 3: Investment Trends - Deutsche Bank noted a slowdown in capital inflows into US assets, with Taiwan's banks reviewing their risk management agreements for US investments, suggesting a potential decrease in US Treasury purchases [6] - JPMorgan strategists argue that the softening of US tariff positions will support economic growth in other regions, boosting their currencies [7] - Investors are increasingly looking to short the dollar against currencies from countries holding significant dollar reserves, with a focus on the South Korean won and Indonesian rupiah [7]

Core Insights - Appaloosa Management, led by billionaire David Tepper, reported a total market value of $8.38 billion for Q1 2025, up 15.65% from $6.46 billion in the previous quarter [1][2] - The fund added 7 new stocks, increased holdings in 8 stocks, reduced holdings in 21 stocks, and completely exited 6 stocks during the quarter [1][2] - The top 10 holdings accounted for 77.25% of the total market value [2] Holdings Overview - The largest position was in SPDR S&P 500 Fossil Fuel Reserves Free ETF put options (SPYX.US), with 4.5 million shares valued at approximately $2.52 billion, representing 30.03% of the portfolio [3][6] - Alibaba (BABA.US) was the second-largest holding with 9.23 million shares valued at about $1.22 billion, a decrease of 22.06% from the previous quarter [3][6] - Other significant holdings included Pinduoduo (PDD.US) with 4.37 million shares valued at $517.19 million, Amazon (AMZN.US) with 2.51 million shares valued at $477.55 million, and JD.com (JD.US) with 8.05 million shares valued at $331.02 million [4][5][6] Trading Activity - Notable new purchases included put options for Apple (AAPL.US), Deutsche Bank (DB.US), L3Harris Technologies (LHX.US), Broadcom (AVGO.US), VanEck Semiconductor ETF put options (SMH.US), and Block (XYZ.US) [6][7] - The fund completely exited positions in AMD (AMD.US), Antero Resources (AR.US), EQT Energy (EQT.US), Expand Energy (EXE.US), FedEx (FDX.US), and Intel (INTC.US) [7] - Significant reductions were made in holdings of Microsoft (MSFT.US), NVIDIA (NVDA.US), Qualcomm (QCOM.US), ASML (ASML.US), and Micron Technology (MU.US) [7][8] Performance Metrics - The turnover rate for the quarter was 29.55%, with an alternative turnover rate of 20.07% [2] - The average holding period for the top 20 stocks was 8.85 quarters, while the top 10 stocks had an average holding period of 10.9 quarters [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses concerns regarding the dollar, deficits, and government policies as highlighted by Deutsche Bank's global foreign exchange research head, George Saravelos [1] - The commentary aligns with the recent rise in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 5% [1] - There is a growing consensus around the fiscal budget bill currently under consideration in Congress, indicating an increasing likelihood of rising deficits [1] - This trend contradicts the White House's stated goal of reducing the trade deficit, as rising deficits are expected to stimulate consumer demand [1] - The expectation is that the current account deficit will continue to rise [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's shares have reached a new 52-week high, driven by strong financial performance and investor confidence, outperforming peers in the banking industry [1][4]. Price Performance - Deutsche Bank's stock has gained 20.6% over the past month, compared to 14.1% for HSBC and 18.7% for Barclays [1]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Deutsche Bank reported a profit before tax of €2.8 billion, a 39.3% increase year over year, and net revenues rose 9.6% year over year, primarily due to growth in net interest income and commissions [4]. - The bank's net revenues have experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% over the last three years, continuing this trend into Q1 2025 [6]. Growth Factors - Deutsche Bank's strategic shift from investment banking to more stable, capital-light businesses such as private banking, corporate banking, and asset management is expected to support revenue growth [6]. - The acquisition of Numis in 2023 is anticipated to bolster the Asset Management segment [7]. Sales Estimates - Zacks Consensus Estimates for upcoming quarters indicate expected sales of €8.94 billion for the current quarter and €36.14 billion for the current year, reflecting a year-over-year growth estimate of 12.02% [8]. Liquidity and Capital Position - As of March 31, 2025, Deutsche Bank's liquidity coverage ratio was 134%, with total debt of €131.5 billion, of which only €15.1 billion was short-term borrowings [9]. - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET 1) ratio improved to 13.8% from 13.4% year-over-year, supported by risk-weighted asset reductions and strong organic capital generation [10]. Capital Return Strategy - Deutsche Bank initiated a €750 million share repurchase program and proposed a dividend of 68 cents per share, aiming to return €2.1 billion to shareholders in 2025 [11]. - The bank is on track to exceed its €8 billion capital distribution target for 2022-2026, indicating a commitment to strong shareholder returns [12]. Valuation - Deutsche Bank is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 8.33X, which is below the industry average of 9.31X, suggesting it may be undervalued compared to peers [14]. Investment Outlook - Given its strong financials, growth trajectory, and discounted valuation, Deutsche Bank is considered a solid investment opportunity [16].

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's stake in Bilibili-W decreased from 23.24% to 22.84% as of May 9 [1]

金十数据5月13日讯，德意志银行经济学家Sanjay Raja在一份报告中说，最新的英国劳动力市场数据显 示，薪酬趋势出现了降温迹象。在4月初上调最低工资标准和雇主工资税的双重打击出现之前，劳动力 市场就有明显的松动迹象。在截至3月份的三个月里，不计奖金的工资年增长率下滑至5.6%，失业率小 幅上升，职位空缺下降。薪酬协议几乎肯定会进一步放缓，这应该会让英国央行的降息周期继续下去， 今年晚些时候可能会加速降息。 英国工资增长放缓可能会让英国央行继续降息周期 ...

Company Overview - 51Talk Online Education Group is a global online education platform specializing in English education, aiming to make quality education accessible and affordable [4] - The company utilizes online and mobile platforms to provide live interactive English lessons, connecting students with qualified teachers through a shared economy approach [4] Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of 2024, gross billings reached US$21.4 million, reflecting a 93.4% growth compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 [7] - Net revenues for the same period were US$16.2 million, marking a 117.3% increase from US$7.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 [7] - The number of active students who attended lessons was approximately 74,200, representing an 83.2% increase from about 40,500 in the fourth quarter of 2023 [7] Investor Engagement - David Chung, Vice President of Investor Relations, will present at the dbVIC - Deutsche Bank ADR Virtual Investor Conference on May 15, 2025, aimed at introducing global companies with ADR programs to investors [1] - The conference will be a live, interactive online event allowing real-time questions from investors, with an archived webcast available for those unable to attend live [2]

Core Viewpoint - First Pacific Company Limited is focused on defensive businesses in Southeast Asia and is set to present at the dbVIC - Deutsche Bank ADR Virtual Investor Conference on May 15, 2025, to engage with investors [1][2]. Company Overview - First Pacific is a Hong Kong-based investment holding company with operations in consumer food products, telecommunications, infrastructure, and mining [6]. - The company is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and offers shares in the U.S. through American Depositary Receipts (ADR) [6]. Financial Performance - The company has experienced six consecutive years of profit growth, with the last four years achieving record highs [3]. - First Pacific's share price increased by 25% in 2023 and 45% in 2024, with a recurring price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 3.6x for FY 2024 [5]. Strategic Focus - First Pacific's strategy emphasizes maximizing shareholder returns through investments in defensive industries that are not significantly affected by changes in foreign trade tariffs [3]. - The company maintains a focus on emerging economies in Southeast Asia and holds majority stakes in its investments to ensure control over cash flows [8]. Key Assets - First Pacific's portfolio includes major companies such as Indofood (largest maker of instant noodles), MPTC (largest privately owned toll road operator), Meralco (largest power company), PLDT (largest telecommunications company), and Maynilad (largest water company) in the Philippines [4]. - The company is also the largest shareholder in Philex Mining, which plans to open a second gold and copper mine in 2026 [4]. Financial Health - First Pacific has low borrowings with an interest coverage ratio of 4x and has maintained investment-grade credit ratings from Moody's and S&P Global for three years [5].

Core Viewpoint - Large institutional investors, including pension funds, are significantly reducing their exposure to U.S. dollar assets and reallocating towards European markets, driven by factors such as unpredictable Trump policies and ongoing tariff conflicts [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Investor Behavior - Investors are experiencing a historic reduction in U.S. stock allocations, with the largest outflow of funds to Europe since 1999, as reported by Bank of America [1]. - European ETFs saw a record outflow of €2.5 billion in April, marking the highest since the beginning of 2023 [1]. - The Finnish Veritas pension fund and Danish pension funds have both reduced their U.S. stock exposure, with the latter increasing European stock investments to the highest level since 2018 [2]. Group 2: Currency and Asset Trends - There is a notable shift towards non-dollar safe-haven assets, with the euro and German bonds rising sharply, indicating a departure from traditional investment patterns [2]. - Institutional investors are actively selling dollars to buy euros, as observed by Bank of America and Deutsche Bank [2]. - The potential for a structural impact on the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt markets is highlighted, as capital flows reverse from the U.S. to other markets [3]. Group 3: Market Valuation Concerns - Concerns over high valuations in the U.S. stock market are prompting investors to question the rationale behind maintaining such premium prices, as noted by the CIO of Veritas [2]. - The California Teachers' Retirement Fund is reassessing its positions, warning of risks associated with tariff policies that could lead to significant sell-offs of U.S. debt by major trading partners [3].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index experienced significant volatility, starting the year strong before dropping nearly 20% due to tariff concerns, but has since recovered most losses after a 90-day tariff pause was announced [1][2] Barclays - Barclays shares have risen nearly 23% this year and 54% over the past year, despite European banks facing challenges such as low interest rates and weak GDP growth [3][5] - The bank generated a 14% return on tangible equity (ROTE) in Q1 2025, up from 12.3% a year prior, attributed to strong performance in investment banking and wealth management [5][6] - Management anticipates an 11% ROTE in 2025, with capital levels elevated for potential share repurchases and a current dividend yield of approximately 2.7% [7] Deutsche Bank - Deutsche Bank shares have increased by 56% this year, overcoming economic challenges and regulatory issues related to anti-money-laundering infractions [9][10] - The bank has made financial progress, achieving an 11.9% ROTE in Q1 2025, up from 7.4% in Q1 2024, with a compound annual revenue growth rate of 6.1% since 2021 [11] - Management plans to spend €750 million ($842 million) on share repurchases, contributing to a total distribution of €2.1 billion in the quarter, with expectations to exceed an annual €8 billion distribution target [13]