ETF进化论 但斌：国内能对标谷歌的公司，可能只有2家… 原创 阅读全文 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略月报 2025 年 12 月 01 日 全球策略月报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 海外市场：货币政策方面，美联储内部分化加剧，12 月是否降息存在不确定性。 当前 CME 模型预期 12 月降息的概率重新回升至 80%以上，但我们认为 12 月或 明年 1 月降息对于实体经济的影响差异并不大，耐心等待 FOMC 会议中的指引或 是更好的选择。产业方面，谷歌 Gemini 3 或重塑 AI 产业格局，行业内部或迎来 分化。 展望 12 月，我们认为美股 AI 板块整体情绪或阶段性放缓，美股整体缺乏明确方 向，或维持高位震荡。截止 11 月末，美国科技七巨头的市值已经占到标普 500 的 33%，占纳斯达克指数的 48%。资本开支是驱动美股 AI 板块持续上行的重要因 素，但我们认为这个逻辑已经出现松动迹象，原因有三：第一，市场或担忧于资 本开支增速放缓。从七巨头中英伟达的下游公司来看，2025 年微软、谷歌、亚马 逊和 Meta 的资本开支占经营活动 ...

In a joint effort to address the increasing need for reliable connectivity, Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Alphabet Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) Google have launched a new multicloud networking service.Check The Stock Price Of Amazon HereFaster Multicloud Links LaunchThe new service, announced on Sunday, will enable customers to establish private, high-speed links between the two companies’ computing platforms in a matter of minutes, rather than weeks. This initiative comes at a time when even bri ...

Core Insights - Google's self-developed AI chip, TPU, is showing significant potential to challenge the existing market landscape in the competitive AI chip sector [1] Supply Chain and Production Forecast - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that uncertainties surrounding Google's TPU supply chain are diminishing, with expectations for explosive growth in production over the next two years [1] - The production forecast for Google's TPU has been significantly raised for 2027 and 2028, with the 2027 estimate increasing from approximately 3 million units to about 5 million units, representing a growth of around 67% [1] Revenue Potential - If Google initiates a "third-party sales" model for TPU, it could open up a substantial new revenue stream [1] - The report estimates that for every 500,000 TPU chips sold, Google could potentially add approximately $13 billion in revenue and $0.40 in earnings per share (EPS) by 2027 [1]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett is set to retire as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of 2025, having led the company for 60 years, during which its Class A shares increased nearly 6,200,000% [2] - Despite his impending retirement, Buffett continues to manage Berkshire's substantial investment portfolio, which is valued at nearly $312 billion [4] Group 1: Bank of America Stake Reduction - Buffett has been selling shares of Bank of America (BofA) for five consecutive quarters, reducing Berkshire's stake by 464,781,994 shares, which is a 45% decrease from over 1.03 billion shares previously held [7] - The selling of BofA shares is interpreted as profit-taking, as the stock has more than tripled in value over the past decade [8] - The current valuation of BofA's common stock is at a 39% premium to its book value, indicating it may not be the attractive investment it once was [11] Group 2: Economic Considerations - Buffett acknowledges the nonlinear nature of economic cycles, suggesting that long periods of economic growth can benefit banks like BofA, which can prudently expand their loan portfolios [6] - The ongoing Federal Reserve rate-easing cycle may impact BofA's net interest income, prompting Buffett to reduce his stake in the bank [12] Group 3: Investment in Alphabet - Buffett made a significant investment in Alphabet, purchasing 17,846,142 Class A shares valued at over $4.3 billion, marking a notable shift in investment strategy [14] - Alphabet holds a dominant position in the internet search market, with a 90% global market share, and has shown robust growth in its cloud services, with a 34% growth rate in the third quarter [15][19] - The valuation of Alphabet shares was attractive at the time of purchase, trading between 16 and 22 times forward-year earnings per share, reflecting its strong market position and growth potential [22]

Core Viewpoint - Google's self-developed AI chip, TPU, is showing significant potential to challenge the existing market landscape, with expectations of explosive growth in production over the next two years, indicating a possible shift towards large-scale sales to third parties [1][3][4]. Supply Chain Signals - The uncertainty surrounding the TPU supply chain is diminishing, with a substantial increase in production forecasts for 2027 and 2028. The production estimate for 2027 has been raised from approximately 3 million units to about 5 million units, a 67% increase [1][3]. - For 2028, the production forecast has surged from around 3.2 million units to approximately 7 million units, reflecting a remarkable 120% increase [3][4]. Financial Implications - If Google initiates an external sales strategy for TPU, it could open up a significant new revenue stream. Each sale of 500,000 TPU chips could potentially add around $13 billion in revenue and $0.40 to earnings per share (EPS) in 2027 [1][4]. - The report estimates that over the two years from 2027 to 2028, Google could secure 12 million TPU units, compared to a total of 7.9 million units over the past four years, indicating a rapid expansion in AI hardware investment and positioning [1][4]. Strategic Shift - The increase in TPU production suggests a strategic shift for Google from a "self-use" model to directly competing with major players in the AI chip market. This transition could position Google as a hardware seller rather than just a consumer and service provider [4].

Core Insights - The launch of ChatGPT by OpenAI three years ago marked a significant turning point in AI technology, evolving from a simple chatbot to a critical component of digital life [1][6][34] - The rapid advancement of AI has led to a mix of excitement and anxiety among the public, with concerns about job displacement and the implications of AI on various industries [8][21] - Google’s recent launch of Gemini 3 is seen as a strategic move to reclaim dominance in the AI space, challenging OpenAI's previous lead [10][21] Group 1: Evolution of AI Technology - Over the past three years, OpenAI has consistently led AI advancements with models like GPT-3.5, GPT-4o, and GPT-5, which have set new standards in speed, accuracy, and reasoning ability [12][13] - The introduction of multi-modal AI, such as GPT-4o and Midjourney, has expanded AI capabilities beyond text to include images, audio, and video [17][21] - The user engagement with Gemini has surged, with monthly active users increasing from approximately 400 million in May to 650 million [21][23] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - OpenAI's market share remains significant with over 800 million users, but user engagement with Gemini has surpassed that of ChatGPT [23][27] - The competitive landscape has shifted, with industry leaders like Google leveraging their resources to challenge OpenAI's position [21][27] - OpenAI's CEO faces immense pressure to accelerate monetization and maintain stability amid fierce competition [27][28] Group 3: Financial Strategies and Risks - OpenAI is pursuing an aggressive financial strategy, planning to invest $1.4 trillion in computing power over the next eight years, significantly exceeding its current revenue [28][31] - The financial burden of OpenAI's operations is largely borne by its partners, with estimates suggesting that nearly $1 trillion in debt is associated with its collaborations [29][31] - Analysts predict that substantial borrowing will be necessary to fulfill OpenAI's contracts, raising concerns about the sustainability of its financial model [32]

格隆汇12月1日丨新开普(300248.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，目前公司暂未与谷歌合作。 ...

Core Insights - Google's self-developed AI chip, TPU, is showing significant potential to challenge the existing market landscape as supply chain uncertainties are diminishing [1][4] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a substantial increase in TPU production forecasts for 2027 and 2028, suggesting a strategic shift towards external sales [2][6] Supply Chain Signals - Morgan Stanley's analysis reveals a clear increase in TPU orders, leading to a revised forecast of 12 million TPUs for 2027-2028, compared to a total of 7.9 million over the past four years [2][4] - The anticipated production surge indicates Google's accelerated investment and expansion in AI hardware [2] Production Forecasts - The production forecast for 2027 has been raised from approximately 3 million to about 5 million units, reflecting a 67% increase [6] - For 2028, the forecast has jumped from around 3.2 million to 7 million units, marking an impressive 120% increase [6] Strategic Shift - The new production data suggests that Google's previous supply constraints may no longer be an issue, allowing for a potential shift from an internal-use model to competing directly in the AI chip market [4] - The projected production of 12 million TPUs over two years indicates the potential for Google to sell more TPUs through its Google Cloud Platform (GCP) and as standalone products [4] Financial Implications - Each sale of 500,000 TPU chips could generate approximately $13 billion in revenue and $0.40 in earnings per share (EPS) for Google in 2027 [5][7] - Successful implementation of the TPU external sales strategy could significantly enhance Google's revenue and profit growth, potentially reshaping market valuations and the competitive landscape in the AI chip sector [7]

Core Insights - The emergence of space computing and satellite industries is expected to revolutionize data center deployment, with significant advancements in technology and cost efficiency [2][3][5]. Group 1: Space Computing Developments - Nvidia has launched its H100 GPU into space, marking a significant step towards establishing large-scale computing infrastructure in orbit, with Starcloud predicting that most new data centers will be built in space within the next decade [2]. - Elon Musk anticipates that deploying large-scale AI systems in space will be more cost-effective than on Earth due to the availability of free solar energy and efficient cooling methods, estimating future AI computing needs could reach 200 to 300 gigawatts [3]. - Google's Project Suncatcher aims to develop satellites equipped with TPU AI chips to create a scalable computing network in space, with plans to launch test satellites by early 2027 [4]. Group 2: China's Space Computing Initiatives - China successfully launched the world's first space computing satellite constellation, "Body Computing Constellation," which is expected to achieve a total computing power of 1000 Peta Operations Per Second (POPS) [5]. - The constellation features advanced onboard computing capabilities and high-speed inter-satellite communication, enabling significant advancements in space-based data processing [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Companies such as Potevio Technology, Shunhao Co., China Satellite, Haige Communication, and Shanghai Hantong are identified as potential investment opportunities in the burgeoning space computing sector [6].