Core Viewpoint - The development of artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the global technology and industrial landscape, evolving into a comprehensive competition among nations, particularly between China and the United States, with other countries also formulating their own AI strategies [1][3]. Group 1: AI Competition Landscape - The AI competition has transcended algorithms, becoming a national-level competition involving chip manufacturing, computational infrastructure, talent mobility, and capital investment [1]. - The United States leads in AI model and chip innovation, while China is closing the gap due to its strong industrial base and large AI talent pool [1][3]. - Other regions, including the EU, Japan, South Korea, India, Israel, and the UAE, are also establishing national AI strategies to secure a position in global standards and industry applications [1]. Group 2: China's AI Policy - China has a comprehensive and effective AI policy framework that encompasses six foundational elements: chips, data, talent, capital, energy, and applications [3]. - In 2023, China added 400 GW of energy infrastructure to support large model training, and established a national data exchange to promote data market circulation [3]. - The Chinese AI talent pool remains robust, with local teams like DeepSeek being predominantly composed of domestic personnel [3]. Group 3: United States' AI Policy - The U.S. AI policy is characterized by fragmentation and volatility, relying on executive orders rather than legislative support, leading to inconsistent policies across different administrations [4]. - The U.S. government is attempting to establish global leadership through the AI Action Plan, focusing on accelerating innovation, building AI infrastructure, and enhancing AI diplomacy [5]. - Key initiatives include promoting open-source AI, supporting AI labs in cloud environments, and streamlining data center approvals for large projects [5]. Group 4: European Union's AI Approach - The EU's AI policy is risk-oriented, centered around the AI Act, emphasizing transparency, data protection, and consumer rights [4]. - While the EU has a clear legal framework, it struggles to adapt to rapid technological changes, resulting in a lag in AI startup incubation and technology commercialization [4]. Group 5: Other Countries' AI Strategies - Countries like the UAE, Estonia, India, and Brazil are exploring localized AI governance paths, with initiatives such as appointing AI ministers and integrating AI into education systems [4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported funds from operations (FFO) of $371 million or $0.56 per unit, representing a 10% year-over-year increase driven by strong hydro generation and growth initiatives [18][20] - FFO per unit is expected to continue growing at a target rate of over 10% for the year [8] - The company has $4.7 billion of available liquidity, indicating strong financial flexibility [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The hydroelectric segment saw FFO increase by over 50% year-over-year, attributed to strong performance from U.S. and Colombian fleets [18][19] - The Distributed Energy, Storage, and Sustainable Solutions segments delivered nearly 40% year-over-year FFO growth, driven by Westinghouse's performance in the nuclear sector [20] - Wind and solar segments reported flat FFO compared to the prior year due to asset dispositions and gains from the previous year [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has commissioned 2.1 gigawatts of new renewable energy capacity in the quarter and anticipates bringing on approximately 8 gigawatts in 2025, a record for the business [8][9] - The company is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance for energy across its operating regions, necessitating substantial expansion of energy generation [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on a safe harboring strategy to secure tax credit eligibility for nearly all U.S. projects through 2029 [6][39] - The recent Hydro Framework Agreement with Google aims to deliver up to 3 gigawatts of hydroelectric capacity, reflecting a shift in procurement strategies among large tech companies [11][12] - The company is actively investing in critical technologies, including hydro, nuclear, and battery storage, to support growing energy demand and grid reliability [13][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to navigate changes in tax credit eligibility and maintain development margins [37][39] - The outlook for the business remains robust, driven by strong demand for power and the need for diverse energy solutions [9][20] - Management highlighted the increasing sophistication of large tech companies in their energy procurement strategies, emphasizing the importance of long-term partnerships [79] Other Important Information - The company has successfully completed $19 billion of financings year-to-date, optimizing its capital structure and extending maturities [21][23] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing nuclear capacity in the U.S. and globally, with Westinghouse playing a leadership role [70][74] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can the company accelerate development in light of recent capacity auction results? - Management noted that the supply-demand imbalance is evident and they are pulling projects forward as quickly as possible while leveraging M&A capabilities and partnerships with large power buyers [26][28] Question: What is the outlook for the hydro M&A environment in the U.S.? - Management indicated that the hydro market is becoming more liquid, and they are well-positioned to pursue opportunities that fit their framework agreements [40][41] Question: How is the company adapting to challenges in the U.S. market? - Management emphasized the importance of interconnection speed in development activities and has been prioritizing regions with better connection capabilities [46][48] Question: What are the key milestones for nuclear development in the Westinghouse business? - Management highlighted the focus on new build nuclear projects in the U.S. and Europe, with significant government interest in expanding nuclear capacity [72][74] Question: How have discussions with tech companies changed regarding new facilities? - Management noted an increased appetite for diverse energy solutions beyond wind and solar, with a focus on broader relationships with tech companies [78][79]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.84%, Nasdaq down 1.38%, and S&P 500 down 0.95% [2] - European major indices also experienced declines, with Germany's DAX down 2.17%, France's CAC40 down 2.39%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.68% [6] Company Specifics - Amazon's stock fell over 7% due to third-quarter operating profit guidance being below expectations and underperformance in its AWS business compared to competitors Microsoft and Google [2][8] - Apple saw an increase of over 1% as its third-quarter earnings exceeded expectations [2] - Reddit's stock rose over 12% after its third-quarter revenue forecast surpassed expectations [2] Futures and Commodities - Dow futures fell by 0.89%, S&P 500 futures dropped by 1.02%, and Nasdaq futures decreased by 1.22% [4][5] - Spot gold prices reached $3,330 per ounce, marking a 1.21% increase [9] - The U.S. dollar index experienced a sharp decline of over 80 points, settling at 99.4, down 0.6% [10]

Group 1: Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - In July, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3, down 0.9 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw an increase to 49.5, up 0.9 percentage points, and small enterprises dropped to 46.4, down 0.9 percentage points [2] - The production index and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while new orders, raw material inventory, and employment indices were below the critical point [2] Group 2: AI and Technology Developments - The number of registered personal users for large model applications in China has exceeded 3.1 billion, with API call users surpassing 159 million [3] - Huawei has officially open-sourced its self-developed programming language "Cangjie," which includes a compiler, runtime, and standard library, aimed at intelligent applications [7] - OpenAI's annualized revenue has reached $12 billion, with an adjusted cash burn forecast of approximately $8 billion for 2025 [15] Group 3: Corporate Actions and Market Developments - Nvidia was summoned by China's internet regulator to explain security risks related to its H20 computing chip sold in China [4] - Energy Capital Partners and KKR announced plans to build a 190 MW data center in Texas, with an investment close to $4 billion, marking the first investment of their $50 billion strategic partnership [11] - Chevron has received limited permission from the U.S. government to operate in Venezuela, contingent on ensuring oil revenues do not benefit the Maduro government [17] Group 4: Financial Market Updates - The A-share market saw all three major indices close lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18% [18] - The Hong Kong GDP for Q2 2025 increased by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly up from a 3.0% increase in Q1 [4] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% and the Nasdaq up 0.15% [19]

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Group 1: Core Insights - The AI arms race is escalating rapidly, with Wall Street surprisingly applauding massive capital expenditures by tech giants [1][2] - Major tech companies like Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are expected to spend nearly $400 billion on AI infrastructure this year, surpassing the EU's total defense spending last year [1][3] - These investments are projected to contribute up to 0.5 percentage points to US GDP growth this year and next [1] Group 2: Winners in the AI Race - Meta has seen its AI investments translate directly into increased advertising revenue, leading to a stock price surge and a market cap increase of approximately $200 billion [4] - Microsoft reported a record capital expenditure of $30 billion for the quarter, with Azure's annual sales exceeding $75 billion, showcasing the returns from its AI investments [5] - Google's significant capital expenditure increase to $85 billion has not negatively impacted its revenue, with AI features driving a 10% increase in user queries [5] Group 3: Challenges Faced by Some Giants - Amazon's AWS cloud business is experiencing slower growth compared to competitors, raising doubts about its AI strategy despite a capital expenditure of around $118 billion [8] - Apple is perceived as lagging in AI investments, with internal challenges affecting its innovation capabilities, leading analysts to suggest acquisitions as a potential solution [6][7]

——数字经济双周报（202507 第 2 期） ⚫ 彭雅哲 研究助理 杨晓、曾昭睿 ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ 数字经济双周报(202507 第 2 期) 新发展研究院 日录 Catalog | 一、 本周焦点: 美国发布 AI 行动计划 . | | --- | | 二、 中国动态：《人工智能全球治理行动计划》发布 . | | 三、 美国动态：英伟达重启 H20 芯片对华销售 …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 7 | | 四、 欧洲动态: 人工智能治理加速推进 | | 五、 其他国家：新加坡通过产学研合作推动量子应用 . | | 六、 技术前沿: AI 大模型向开源、低成本演进 . | | 七、 智库观点:"人工智能州级监管暂停令"的正确性 …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 11 | | バ、 风险提示…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...