美股科技股突遭猛烈抛售。 隔夜美股市场，科技股全线重挫，纳指盘中一度大跌超2%，芯片股集体大跌，费城半导体指数一度暴跌超6%， AI算力芯片公司AMD暴跌超17%，"存储四巨头"集体大跌，闪迪暴跌超15%，美光科技跌超9%。另外，AI应用股 AppLovin、Palantir均跌超10%。 有分析指出，AMD的财报指引不及分析师的高预期是芯片股大跌的"导火索"。另外，软件板块掀起的抛售持续蔓 延加剧了市场担忧情绪。对此，英伟达公司首席执行官黄仁勋公开表示；"难以理解，软件产品是工具，人工智能 （AI）会使用这些工具，而不是重新发明它们。" 美股盘后，科技巨头谷歌的母公司Alphabet披露的财报显示，公司2026年资本支出将达到惊人的1750亿美元至 1850亿美元，大超市场预期。受财报影响，其股价盘后剧烈波动，截至发稿，跌超1%。 科技股全线重挫 美东时间2月4日，美股开盘后，三大指数明显分化，资金迅速从前期强势的科技板块撤出，纳指跌幅一度扩大至 2.45%，芯片股指数一度大跌超6%，道指则逆势走高，截至收盘，纳指跌1.51%，标普500指数跌0.51%，道指涨 0.53%。 美股大型科技股多数下挫，英伟达 ...

分组1 - Alphabet reported quarterly earnings of $2.82 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.57 per share, and up from $2.15 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +9.73% [1] - The company posted revenues of $97.23 billion for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.58%, and up from $81.62 billion year-over-year [2] - Alphabet has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates over the last four quarters, indicating strong performance [2] 分组2 - The stock has gained approximately 8.5% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.1% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $2.51 on revenues of $88.66 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $11.06 on revenues of $397.39 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank places the Internet - Services sector in the bottom 36% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges ahead [8]

分组1 - Alphabet Inc. reported quarterly earnings of $2.82 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.57 per share, and up from $2.15 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of +9.73% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $97.23 billion for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.58%, and an increase from $81.62 billion year-over-year [2] - Alphabet has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates over the last four quarters, indicating strong performance [2] 分组2 - The stock has gained approximately 8.6% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 1.1% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $2.51 on revenues of $88.66 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $11.06 on revenues of $403.01 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank places the Internet - Services sector in the bottom 36% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8]

来源：滚动播报 1、在多位中东领导人紧急游说特朗普政府放弃退出谈判的威胁后，原定于6日举行的美伊核谈判计划得 以恢复，谈判将在阿曼举行。此次僵局引发了整个中东地区的担忧，担心特朗普会转而采取军事行动。 2、谷歌公司2025年营收首次突破4000亿美元，Q4营收同比增长18%，AI技术驱动核心业务全面增长。 全年净利润1321.70亿美元，同比增长32%。 3、AMD收跌17.31%，创2017年以来的最大单日跌幅，成 交218.17亿美元。 4、美联储周三宣布，在2026年压力测试周期内不会调整大型银行的资本水平，因美 联储正考虑对这项年度测试进行若干调整以提升透明度。 5、SpaceX已与美国以外的银行就其首次公开 募股（IPO）举行会谈。 6、美国平等就业机会委员会周三称，正在调查耐克涉嫌通过多元化政策歧视 白人的行为。 7、美国财长贝森特周三表示，他在2024年1月，也就是美国总统特朗普赢得大选之前， 曾与其对冲基金Key Square向合作伙伴称"关税会带来通胀"，而这一判断是错误的。 8、纳斯达克考虑 在SpaceX等大型IPO之前推出新的"快速入指"规则。 9、俄外交部：俄美不再受《新削减战略武器 ...

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Core Insights - The focus is on Alphabet's performance, particularly regarding its AI product Gemini and its impact on user metrics and cloud services growth [2][4][10] Group 1: Gemini Performance - Gemini has reportedly surpassed some AI competitors, with over 600 million monthly active users as of Q4, and investors are looking for this number to approach 1 billion to match OpenAI [2][3] - The conversion of Gemini's user base into cloud services usage is critical, with expectations for growth in the low to mid-30% range [4] Group 2: Capital Expenditure (CapEx) - Alphabet's CapEx is viewed positively, as it is flexible between search and cloud business, showing efficiency in spending compared to competitors like Meta [6][7] - The market's threshold for CapEx is not clearly defined, but as long as revenue continues to rise, increased spending is acceptable [5][6] Group 3: Advertising Revenue - Search revenue is expected to grow by 14%, with investors hoping for a slight acceleration to 15% or more [9] - Advertising remains a significant profit driver for Alphabet, and there is anticipation for how AI will further enhance ad opportunities [11][12]

Guy, what's your quick take on this >> big numbers. I mean, and the capex guide is clearly not scaring anybody. I'm sure Nvidia's hires.Well, here's my quick take. It is a very strong quarter and you know, I guess the rumors of the death of Google six, seven months ago were obviously exaggerated. >> Greatly exaggerated.But the problem I think now is back then you can make a very compelling valuation case. Now, not as much. So at 31 timesish, I I'm not saying you got to get out of Google here, but I think yo ...

Core Viewpoint - Alphabet is facing challenges in the current market environment, but its fundamentals remain strong, particularly in Google Cloud, which is expected to grow by 35% [2][4]. Company Performance - Google Cloud is projected to continue its robust growth, contributing significantly to Alphabet's overall performance [2]. - Despite market volatility, Alphabet's advertising model remains resilient, and its search and YouTube metrics are strong [4][5]. Market Trends - There is a notable rotation in investments, with some investors moving towards traditional companies like Walmart and Starbucks, while still recognizing the importance of AI companies like Google, Meta, and Amazon [8]. - The current market sell-off appears indiscriminate, affecting various sectors, but the demand for AI-related technologies remains high [12]. Competitive Landscape - Concerns about competition from OpenAI and other AI companies have been addressed by Alphabet's advancements, particularly with the introduction of Gemini [4][5]. - The narrative around Google oscillates between it being a declining entity or a monopoly, highlighting the polarized views on its market position [4]. Investment Considerations - The stability of Google is emphasized, with the potential for continued investment in capital expenditures (capex) being a key focus for the company [6]. - The ongoing buildout of AI infrastructure by major players like Google and Microsoft indicates a sustained demand for computing resources, despite short-term market corrections [10][11].

Market Overview - The stock market closed mixed, with the Dow up 0.5% (259 points), while the NASDAQ fell 1.5% [1][2] - The S&P 500 was down about 0.5%, but the equal-weighted S&P 500 index closed up nearly 1% at a record high [2][3] - Small-cap indices showed varied performance, with the Russell 2000 down 0.7% and the S&P 600 up 0.9% [3] Sector Performance - The Dow Jones transports surged over 2% for three consecutive days, totaling an 8% increase, a trend not seen since May 2025 [4] - The materials sector led gains, with gold and silver trades up over 2%, followed by energy, which also rose by 2% [5] - The technology sector was the biggest loser, down 2.82%, with significant declines in major tech stocks like AMD (down 17%) and Palantir (down 11%) [5][6] Alphabet's Q4 Earnings - Alphabet reported Q4 operating income of $35.93 billion, slightly below the expected $36.95 billion, with total revenue of $113.83 billion, exceeding the estimate of $111.4 billion [9][10] - Google Cloud revenue was reported at $17.66 billion, surpassing the estimate of $16.2 billion, indicating strong performance in that segment [10][24] - The company projected 2026 capital expenditures between $175 billion and $185 billion, significantly higher than the consensus estimate of $120 billion, leading to a drop in stock price by about 6% in after-hours trading [11][12] Qualcomm's Q1 Results - Qualcomm reported Q1 EPS of $3.50, exceeding estimates of $3.41, with revenue of $12.3 billion, also better than the expected $12.2 billion [34][35] - The outlook for Q2 revenue is projected between $10.2 billion and $11 billion, below the previous estimate of $11.18 billion, due to headwinds from memory shortages in the smartphone market [36][40] - Qualcomm is diversifying its business beyond smartphones, focusing on markets like PC chips and robotics [37][38] Investment Strategies - A neutral stance on equities is maintained, with an underweight position in U.S. stocks compared to international markets, driven by attractive valuations overseas [43][45] - The current market environment shows targeted selling primarily in technology, with a focus on quality investments outside the tech sector [47][48] - Concerns about future earnings growth and valuation in the tech sector, particularly among the Magnificent Seven, are leading to a cautious investment approach [53][56]

Market Overview - The market is mixed, with the Dow up 336 points (0.7%) while the NASDAQ is down over 1% [1] - The S&P 500 is down 0.21%, but the equal-weighted S&P 500 is performing better, indicating strength in smaller stocks [1] - The Dow transports have surged 2.5% over the last three days, up nearly 8% since the ISM manufacturing report [1] Sector Performance - Materials sector is leading with a 2.4% increase, followed by real estate and energy sectors, which is up over 15% year-to-date [1] - The healthcare, staples, and financials sectors are also showing gains of more than 1% [1] - The tech sector is under pressure, with significant declines in major stocks like Tesla (down 3%), Broadcom (down 4%), and AMD (down 16%) [1] Earnings Growth Forecast - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 17% earnings growth for the S&P 500 this year, driven by positive operating leverage and improved pricing power [2] - The median stock in the Russell 3000 is experiencing a 13% year-over-year earnings growth, the best in four years [2] Valuation Insights - Current valuation is extended historically, with the median stock in the S&P trading at a three-turn discount to the cap-weighted index [2] - Historical data suggests that when earnings growth exceeds 8% and the Fed funds rate declines, market multiples tend to expand 90% of the time [2] Investment Opportunities - Small caps and consumer discretionary sectors are highlighted as areas of opportunity, with the S&P 600 small cap index showing 10% earnings growth, the best since 2022 [2] - Consumer discretionary is favored due to improving unit demand and pricing, alongside a fiscal tailwind of $65 billion expected in 2026 [2] Tech Sector Analysis - Despite recent pressures, the fundamental setup for large-cap tech remains intact, with revenue revisions at 20-year highs [2] - The market is rewarding high capital expenditure to sales behavior, benefiting AI enablers and hyperscalers [2] Crypto Market Dynamics - The crypto market has seen significant volatility, with Bitcoin down approximately 40% from its October highs, raising concerns about leverage and liquidity [5] - Tokenization is expected to gain traction in 2026, with tokenized treasuries and stocks showing substantial growth [6] Ford's EV Strategy - Ford's US vehicle sales dropped about 5% in January, with EV sales collapsing by approximately 70% [5] - The company is working on a universal EV platform expected to be profitable by 2027-2028, while also exploring partnerships with Chinese OEMs [5] Uber's Business Model - Uber reported strong fourth-quarter results, with bookings up 22% and revenue up 20%, but guidance weighed on stock performance [5] - The long-term risk for Uber lies in the evolution of autonomous vehicles and potential market share loss to vendors like Waymo and Tesla [5]