Core Viewpoint - The stock market is expected to deliver subpar gains, with Goldman Sachs projecting an average annual gain of only 6.5% for the S&P 500 over the next decade, a decline from the historical average of around 10% [1][2] Valuation Concerns - U.S. stocks are currently considered expensive, with the S&P 500's trailing price-to-earnings ratio near a multiyear high of 23 [4] - The concentration of massive companies involved in the AI revolution is contributing to the broader valuation issues, and a correction in these stocks could negatively impact the overall market and economy, potentially reducing net market progress by about 1% per year through 2035 [5] Interest Rate Impact - The widening of the S&P 500's profit margins since 1990 has largely been due to falling interest rates and corporate tax rates, neither of which are expected to decline significantly in the next decade [6] Investment Strategy - Despite the lackluster outlook, Goldman Sachs encourages investors to remain in the stock market but suggests adapting strategies by favoring stocks outside the current high-flying sectors [7][9] Regional Market Performance - The subdued outlook is primarily an American issue, with other regions like Japan and Asia expected to perform better, projecting average market growth of 8.2% and 10.3% respectively, while emerging markets are anticipated to achieve average annualized returns of 10.9% through 2035, driven by earnings growth [10]

随着向清洁能源的转型步伐加快，铜等金属正成为全球经济增长的关键驱动力——从电动汽车到智能电 网，无所不在。高盛的预测表明，项目延误和供应链缺口波及整个经济体。对于着眼于长期基础设施建 设的政府和企业而言，确保这些关键资源的供应正迅速成为一项战略要务。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛刚刚将其对 2025 年 12 月铜价的目标上调至每吨 10610 美元，显示出其对铜价 前景的乐观态度;与此同时，该行预计随着新供应进入市场，铝价将会走软。 高盛预测铜供应将持续短缺，而来自可再生能源和电动汽车等关键领域的需求将不断增长。该银行维持 其对 2026 至 2027 年每吨 10000 至 11000 美元的预期，并预计到 2035 年长期目标为每吨 15000 美元 ——远高于大多数其他预测。这种看涨观点基于许多推迟的采矿项目将被搁置，从而在未来造成供应不 足。另一方面，高盛预计铝可能面临困境：由于预计会有新的供应，高盛现在预计到 2026 年底铝价将 跌至每吨 2350 美元，直到下个十年的某个时候才会反弹至 2025 年的高点。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite Nvidia's impressive earnings, the US stock market experienced a significant reversal, indicating that traders did not receive the risk "full relief" signal they anticipated, leading them to seek hedges against further losses [1] - The S&P 500 index initially surged by 1.9% but later fell by 1.1%, marking the largest intraday volatility since April, with over $2 trillion in market value evaporating from its peak [1] - The VIX index rose above 26, reflecting increased market fear and uncertainty [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs' trading department noted an increase in short positions across macro products, including ETFs and futures, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - The report highlighted poor market liquidity, with the depth of S&P 500 orders dropping below $5 million, compared to an average of $11.5 million over the past year, which may amplify market volatility [1] - Historical data shows that since 1957, there have been eight instances of the S&P 500 opening up over 1% and then reversing to close down, with an average positive performance following such events [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 copper price forecast from $10,385 per ton to $10,610 per ton, reflecting an upward trend in the fourth quarter [1] - The bank maintains a price range of $10,000 to $11,000 per ton for 2026-2027, anticipating a slight market surplus [1] - A supply deficit is expected in the latter part of this decade due to increasing resource constraints and accelerated demand in key sectors, driving prices higher [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs projects a long-term copper price of $15,000 per ton by 2035, which is above market expectations and forward contract prices of approximately $10,390 per ton, based on the assumption that long-delayed mining projects will not come online [1] - The bank remains bearish on aluminum prices for the next 12 months, forecasting a decline to $2,350 per ton by the fourth quarter of 2026 due to new supply leading to market oversupply [1] - Although aluminum prices are expected to recover thereafter, they are not anticipated to return to current levels until the early part of the next decade, with long-term forecasts predicting prices to fluctuate between $2,900 and $3,400 per ton from 2030 to 2035 [1]

Market Overview - The three major market indexes experienced a decline after an earlier surge, as investor optimism regarding potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts diminished [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a swing of nearly 1,100 points, ultimately falling by approximately 320 points (0.7%) after an earlier increase of over 700 points [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also faced losses, down 1.1% and 1.5% respectively, following a similar rally [1] Company Performance - Nvidia's shares initially rose by more than 3.5% after reporting quarterly earnings that exceeded Wall Street estimates, but later declined by 2.5% [2] - Other tech companies also faced losses, including Intel (down 2.8%), AMD (down 6%), Palantir (down 5.2%), Qualcomm (down 3.1%), Amazon (down 1.8%), Microsoft (down 1.5%), Meta (down 1.1%), and Tesla (down 1.5%) [2] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq and Dow were further impacted by losses from Boeing (down 3.7%), Walt Disney (down 1.8%), Goldman Sachs (down 1.1%), and Cisco (down 2.9%) [2] Economic Indicators - The decline in stock prices coincided with a reduced probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December, with current odds at just under 40% for a 25 basis point cut [3] - This probability had peaked at 90% the previous month, indicating a significant shift in market expectations [3] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September, surpassing analysts' estimates, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, suggesting a potential brief recovery in the labor market [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs (GS) stock has been on a strong uptrend since April, making it a potential candidate for bullish option investors [1] - A bull put spread is suggested as a defined risk strategy for trading Goldman stock, allowing investors to know the worst-case scenario in advance [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a significant drop of nearly 800 points, primarily driven by losses in AI stocks such as Nvidia and Palantir [2] Group 2 - The stock market is currently seeing strong performance from bank stocks, with major players like Goldman Sachs moving above buy points [4] - Goldman Sachs is highlighted as a leader in the Dow Jones, with its stock in or near buy zones, indicating potential investment opportunities [4] - The market is reacting to various factors, including a government shutdown ending and earnings reports from companies like Cisco, which have influenced stock movements [4]

格隆汇11月21日｜高盛在给客户的一份说明中说，标普500指数跌破了一个受到密切关注的水平，这给 那些按趋势交易股票的对冲基金开了绿灯，它们可能在未来一周抛售近400亿美元的股票。标普500指数 周三跌破6725点。高盛在当天晚些时候发给客户的说明称，追踪趋势的对冲基金将这一临界值视为一个 信号，要么卖出头寸，要么增加股票将进一步下跌的空头押注。在高盛的计算显示，在股价跌破这一数 字后，在接下来的一周里，全球可能有390亿美元的股票被抛售。如果股价继续下跌，该行估计系统性 趋势对冲基金可能抛售高达约650亿美元的股票。趋势追踪对冲基金旨在利用市场趋势开始时的信号 ——无论是上涨还是下跌。这些信号可以基于市场中的交易量、价格或资产价格在交易日中的变化速 度。高盛的报告说，在股票开始抛售之前，这些对冲基金做多了价值约1500亿美元的全球股票。高盛表 示，上一次股价跌穿这些密切关注的水平是在10月份，而在此之前的4月2日，美国总统特朗普宣布了一 系列关税提案。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs Asset Management's fixed income head, He, indicated that the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December remains due to the ongoing weakness reflected in the unemployment rate [1] Group 1 - The labor market is showing persistent weakness, as indicated by the unemployment rate [1] - The potential for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is still on the table [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has increased its stake in Dongfang Electric Corporation, acquiring 485,200 shares at a price of HKD 20.7115 per share, totaling approximately HKD 10.0492 million, resulting in a new holding of about 24.7231 million shares, representing a 6.06% ownership [1] Summary by Category Company Actions - Goldman Sachs increased its holdings in Dongfang Electric by 485,200 shares [1] - The purchase price per share was HKD 20.7115, leading to a total investment of approximately HKD 10.0492 million [1] - Following this transaction, Goldman Sachs' total shares in Dongfang Electric reached approximately 24.7231 million [1] Ownership Structure - After the increase, Goldman Sachs now holds a 6.06% stake in Dongfang Electric [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has increased its stake in Dongfang Electric Corporation, acquiring 485,200 shares at a price of HKD 20.7115 per share, totaling approximately HKD 10.0492 million, resulting in a new holding of about 24.7231 million shares, representing 6.06% of the company [1] Summary by Category Company Actions - Goldman Sachs increased its holdings in Dongfang Electric by 485,200 shares [1] - The purchase price per share was HKD 20.7115, leading to a total investment of approximately HKD 10.0492 million [1] Shareholding Structure - After the acquisition, Goldman Sachs holds approximately 24.7231 million shares of Dongfang Electric [1] - The new shareholding percentage stands at 6.06% [1]