Group 1: S&P Global - S&P Global is recognized for its financial market indicators, including the S&P 500 index, and has a significant business in debt ratings [2] - The company is classified as a Dividend King, having raised its dividend annually for at least 50 years, with a recent increase of 1% to $0.97 per share [3][6] - Despite its Dividend King status, S&P Global's dividend yield is relatively low at 0.7%, making it less attractive as an income stock compared to others [5] Group 2: Goldman Sachs - Goldman Sachs announced a nearly 13% increase in its dividend to a quarterly rate of $4.50 per share, coinciding with its mid-January earnings release [8]

来源：图虫 没有一点点防备。 今天，COMEX白银跌幅一度超过16%，伦敦银现一度跌超18%，并且还在加速下跌中。 刚才看着分时图，所有人应该都被吓倒了，速度之快、幅度之大、抛盘之猛，都是前所未见。 场面极度血腥。 这不是基本面的崩塌，而是情绪与杠杆的雪崩。 大家都想跑，但门被焊死了。 01、集体叛变，趁火打劫 罪魁祸首是获利盘的集体叛变。 白银的炒作格局，本身就极其脆弱——资金进来的快，出去的更快，尤其是加了杠杆的投机资金，一旦市场出现风吹草动，就会疯狂出逃，引发踩踏。 具体可以分为三个层面： 第一，带头跑路的"聪明钱"。 机构不是慈善家，他们在110美元以上的高位看着手里巨额的浮盈，心里想的只有四个字：落袋为安。 他们不会发邮件通知你，只会悄悄地卖，直到把价格砸出一个缺口。 早从1月23日银价突破100美元开始，摩根大通、高盛就开始悄悄减持净多头持仓。截至今日，两大巨头的净多头持仓占比已从35%降至22%，累计减持3.2万 手。 而这期间，散户还在疯狂追高，Robinhood平台白银散户持仓量增长30%。 根据CFTC实时持仓数据，今日早盘，摩根大通、高盛等华尔街巨头率先减持白银非商业净多头持仓，其中摩根 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that long-term investors (10, 20, or 30 years) should prefer stocks over gold, despite the current high interest in gold. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon emphasizes that stocks outperform gold over decades [1] - In 2025, international gold prices surged nearly 70%, and in 2026, gold prices reached over $5600 per ounce. Solomon notes that while central bank gold purchases are noteworthy, stocks remain the superior long-term investment choice [1] - Geopolitical tensions are identified as a key driver for the recent rise in gold prices. Solomon stresses the importance of distinguishing between "noise" and substantive developments in investment decisions, indicating that the global economic structure remains fundamentally unchanged [1] Group 2 - Regarding the Chinese economy, Solomon acknowledges that China achieved its growth targets last year, highlighting its significant role in the global economy and its strengths in technological innovation and manufacturing [3] - He points out that China needs to shift from an export-driven economy to a consumption-driven one, predicting that future growth will increasingly come from consumption and services rather than manufacturing exports [3] - Solomon believes that the Chinese stock market remains attractive, although it is not as cheap as it was a year ago. He notes a gradual increase in foreign investment in the Chinese market, with expectations for a more balanced and open economy [3] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs' business in China focuses on investment banking, with recent improvements in IPO activity in Hong Kong and a recovery in consulting services, expanding opportunities for the firm [4] - Solomon advises young investors to create diversified investment portfolios to harness the power of compound interest, suggesting that a 7% annual return could lead to significant growth over time [6] - He emphasizes the importance of patience and a long-term perspective in wealth accumulation, encouraging young people to work hard and invest wisely for future financial security [6]

南方财经21世纪经济报道记者郑青亭 北京报道 "如果你是10年、20年或30年的长期投资者，股票长期表现优于黄金。"近日，美国高盛集团董事长兼首 席执行官苏德巍（David Solomon）在北京对21世纪经济报道记者等中国媒体说，"黄金当前热度很高， 但在数十年的时间段里，股票仍能跑赢黄金。" 苏德巍建议，资本配置都应采用广泛而多元的投资组合，覆盖美国、欧洲、中国等主要市场，并平衡配 置股票与固定收益资产。针对不同年龄段投资者，他提出差异化建议：年轻人可增加权益资产配置，利 用长期复利积累财富；年长者则需更保守配置。 中国经济需加速转向消费导向 对于中国经济，他表示，中国去年达成了其设定的增长目标，这是非常积极的。他说，中国在全球经济 中具有重要地位，是一个广泛、多元且复杂的经济体，在技术创新方面实力雄厚，并且受益于强大的制 造业和出口基础。 不过，他指出，中国在消费方面有些疲弱，经济需推动从出口导向到消费导向的再平衡。考虑到中国庞 大的人口基础和财富增长，他认为，有望在未来十年看到中国经济增长将更多来自消费和服务业的发 展，而非制造业出口。 2025年，国际黄金价格一路狂飙，全年涨幅近70%。进入2026 ...

2025年，国际黄金价格一路狂飙，全年涨幅近70%。进入2026年，黄金仍然涨势强劲，一度突破5600美 元/盎司。在回应黄金与股票的选择时，苏德巍强调，尽管近期央行购金趋势引人关注，但就长期投资 来看，股票仍是更优选择。 地缘政治紧张局势是推动本轮金价上涨的关键驱动因素之一。谈及地缘政治事件对投资决策的影响，苏 德巍表示，当前，如何区分"噪音"和实质性发展非常重要。"媒体会放大噪音，但全球经济结构没有根 本性变化。大经济体仍需在该结构下增长和运作。" 在他看来，当前，不确定性确实高于以往，但"并不过高"。"政治言论和地缘政治可能放大不确定性， 影响投资和市场，美国政府也会在市场对不确定性作出反应的情况下，迅速调整策略。" 苏德巍建议，资本配置都应采用广泛而多元的投资组合，覆盖美国、欧洲、中国等主要市场，并平衡配 置股票与固定收益资产。针对不同年龄段投资者，他提出差异化建议：年轻人可增加权益资产配置，利 用长期复利积累财富；年长者则需更保守配置。 中国经济需加速转向消费导向 对于中国经济，他表示，中国去年达成了其设定的增长目标，这是非常积极的。他说，中国在全球经济 中具有重要地位，是一个广泛、多元且复杂的经济 ...

0:00 南方财经21世纪经济报道记者郑青亭 北京报道 近期地缘政治局势波动引发市场对美国资产安全性的关注，甚至出现"抛售美国"的讨论。对此，1月28 日，美国高盛集团董事长兼首席执行官苏德巍（David Solomon）在北京向21世纪经济报道记者表示， 尚未观察到全球资本配置发生根本性转变，美元作为主要储备货币的地位并未面临实质性风险，当前也 看不到合适的替代选择。 苏德巍指出，尽管一些事件引发了媒体热议，但资本配置的基本方式并未改变。他承认，由于多数全球 投资者持有大量美元资产，可能会在边际上增加对美元的对冲操作，这也是近期美元走弱的部分原因。 但他认为，这种波动更可能是短期现象，中期将趋于平稳。 近期，格陵兰岛紧张局势触动美欧关系的敏感神经。据新华社报道，丹麦首相弗雷泽里克森1月28日对 媒体表示，没有所谓北约和美国总统特朗普达成的格陵兰岛协议。此前，特朗普在社交媒体发文称，他 已同北约秘书长吕特就未来达成有关格陵兰岛的协议制定了框架，因此不会实施原定于2月1日生效、对 欧洲8国加征关税的措施。 当被问到美欧关系是否会发生长期性转变，苏德巍强调，这是一段深厚且由来已久的关系。"美国和欧 洲长期以来一直 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs is committed to long-term development in the Chinese market and is optimistic about the further opening of China's capital markets [1][4]. Group 1: Business Development in China - David Solomon, Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs, emphasized the company's ongoing commitment to the Chinese market, noting a significant recovery and acceleration in business activities [1][3]. - Solomon highlighted that international investors are regaining interest in China, which is reflected in the rising stock market [6][7]. - Goldman Sachs has been operating in China for over 30 years, engaging in various services including investment banking, asset management, and wealth management, with a notable focus on the Hong Kong market [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Insights - Solomon acknowledged that China's economy has met its growth targets, attributing this success to technological innovation, manufacturing, and exports, while suggesting that future growth will rely more on consumer spending [3][4]. - He expressed optimism about the potential for a more balanced and stable Chinese economy if consumer spending increases [3]. Group 3: Market Perspectives - Solomon stated that stocks are expected to outperform gold in the long term, despite current trends where central banks are increasing gold holdings for short-term adjustments [5][6]. - He noted that international capital is gradually returning to China, with expectations for a more balanced and open Chinese economy attracting more investments [6][7]. Group 4: AI Investment Trends - Solomon affirmed the long-term potential of AI, indicating that current investments differ from past trends as they are driven by profitable companies recognizing their business needs [8]. - He compared the current AI investment climate to the early internet era, suggesting that while there may be concerns about bubbles, the market will eventually clarify real demand [8].

Core Insights - Major U.S. companies are announcing significant layoffs, with a total of over 52,000 employees expected to be cut, indicating a shift from years of strong hiring to workforce reductions [1] Group 1: Layoff Announcements - Companies such as Amazon, United Parcel Service, Dow Chemical, Nike, and Home Depot are among those planning to reduce their workforce [1] - The layoffs are attributed to ongoing economic uncertainty and increased pressure to streamline operations due to investments in artificial intelligence [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The recent layoffs highlight concerns among Federal Reserve policymakers and private economists regarding the cooling of the previously hot job market [1] - David Mericle, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, noted that companies are increasingly discussing layoffs and are eager to leverage artificial intelligence to reduce labor costs [1]

Summary of Key Points from the 2026 Global Macro Conference on China Industry Overview - The conference focused on the Chinese economy, policy, and markets, reflecting the views of both domestic and global investors regarding China's economic outlook and key issues affecting the market [5][6]. Core Insights 1. **GDP Growth Expectations**: - Over two-thirds of investors anticipate China's official real GDP growth for 2026 to be between 4.6% and 4.9%. The baseline scenario predicts a growth of 4.8%, which is above the Bloomberg consensus of 4.5% due to resilient export growth and policy easing [6][10]. - More than half of the investors expect annualized real GDP growth to be 4-5% during the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), an increase from last year's expectation of 3-4% [6][16]. 2. **PPI Deflation Outlook**: - 82% of investors believe that PPI deflation will end in 2027 or later, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards caution compared to last year [6][12]. - The baseline forecast expects PPI inflation to rise from -2.6% in 2025 to -0.7% in 2026, turning positive by late 2026 or early 2027 [6][12]. 3. **Real Estate Market Predictions**: - Only 7% of investors expect house prices to bottom out in 2026, while 34% predict this will happen in 2027, and nearly 60% expect it to occur in or after 2028 [6][18]. 4. **RMB Exchange Rate Expectations**: - More than 90% of investors expect the RMB to appreciate against the USD this year, with a target range of 6.8-7.0 [6][14]. - Last year, only 3% of attendees anticipated the USDCNY to fall below 7.0 by the end of 2025 [9][14]. 5. **Equity Market Outlook**: - Over 90% of investors expect the China equity market price index to increase by at least 10% in 2026, aligning with the equity strategy team's views [9][23]. - However, research indicates that a stock market rally may have limited impact on household consumption, benefiting only a specific subgroup of the population [9]. 6. **Geopolitical Concerns**: - Investors expressed heightened concerns regarding geopolitical risks and military conflicts compared to other factors such as fiscal sustainability and US-China tensions [9][25]. Additional Important Insights - Domestic investors showed more confidence in China's export resilience, while foreign investors were more cautious about sustainability [8]. - Key topics of interest during client meetings included expectations for the "Two Sessions," property market policies, and consumption boosting measures [8]. - The majority of investors believe that central bank surprises this year may come from the US and Japan rather than China, with expectations of two 10 basis point cuts in the PBOC policy rate in 2026 [9][20]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference, highlighting the evolving perspectives on China's economic landscape and investor sentiment.

"高盛长期致力于中国市场发展，而且我们依然坚定不移地深耕中国市场。"1月28日，高盛董事长兼 CEO苏德巍 (David Solomon) 对证券时报·券商中国记者表示，期待中国资本市场进一步开放。 重申坚持长期在华发展业务 自20世纪90年代中期首次访华以来，苏德巍几乎每年都到访中国，亲眼见证了中国从基础设施建设到科技创新 的巨大发展。他表示，中国发展迅速，他将中国视为全球最重要、最具活力的经济体之一。 谈及对中国经济当下的最新看法，苏德巍表示，中国经济达成了其设定的增长目标，这是非常积极的，并肯定 了中国在全球经济中的重要地位，是一个广泛、多元的经济体。他认为，这主要得益于技术创新、制造业和出 口，而未来的增长引擎则更多要看消费。鉴于中国的人口规模与经济体量，如果未来能够提高消费在经济活动 中的比重，中国经济将变得更加平衡和稳定。 苏德巍于日前抵达北京，这是他自去年11月以来再次来到中国。在工作间隙，他与证券时报在内的多家媒体进 行了交流。他表示，此次到访北京，更加明显感受到高盛在华业务活动水平的进一步回升与加速。他观察到， 全球投资者对中国的兴趣正在重新升温。此外，他还就中国经济、资本市场以及黄金、美元 ...