Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Macau's total gaming revenue (GGR) in January exceeded market expectations, growing by 24% year-on-year to MOP 22.6 billion, reaching 91% of 2019 levels, with an acceleration from the 15% growth seen in the previous quarter [1] Group 1: Revenue Performance - The average daily gaming revenue was MOP 730 million, compared to MOP 718 million in the previous quarter [1] - The strong performance is attributed to a healthy visitor volume, with mainland visitor numbers increasing by 18% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - The firm anticipates a strong performance during the Lunar New Year holiday, based on a low comparison base from last year and a longer holiday this year, alongside sustained domestic tourism demand [1] - Assuming gaming revenue is 25% to 35% above trend levels, estimated daily revenue could reach MOP 850 million to MOP 900 million [1] Group 3: Impact of Events - The firm does not expect the Winter Olympics to divert gaming demand, and while the World Cup in June and July may have some impact, it is projected to affect monthly revenue by no more than 5% [1] - The firm maintains that gaming revenue will continue to show healthy growth in the first half of the year, forecasting year-on-year growth of 17% and 8% for the first and second quarters, respectively [1]

高盛外汇策略师Mike Cahill也指出，沃什过去的观点与获得提名所需的现实承诺并不一致。 Cahill直 言，我们知道，愿意降息至少是获得这份工作的前提条件。 来源：滚动播报 Cahill分析指出，市场基于其历史观点进行的"鹰派资产负债表"交易有其道理，但在现实中实施会需要 更长时间。美联储的决策机制是一人一票，且相比于2017-2018年鲍威尔上任时委员会大规模换届，现 在的人事变动要少得多，新任主席建立影响力需要时间。 （来源：财闻） 高盛认为，沃什不会真正推动重启量化紧缩，因为这对风险资产的破坏性太大。 据了解，2006年，时任美国总统布什提名沃什填补美联储理事的空缺职位，在美联储任职期间，沃什持 鹰派货币政策立场，同时是美联储内量化宽松政策（QE）的内部批评者，他对美联储在金融危机后采 取的激进宽松措施持怀疑态度。2011年，沃什反对美联储第二轮QE，并从美联储离职。 不过，近期高盛交易和研究团队在就沃什进行深度分析后，认为市场可能再次误判了新美联储主席的实 际立场。 据追风交易台2月3日消息，来自高盛全球交易部门的反馈，普遍倾向淡化沃什的影响力。高盛美债交易 员BROWN认为，沃什不会真正推动重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The release of Google's Genie 3 has led to significant stock sell-offs in the gaming and advertising technology sectors, with companies like Unity, Roblox, and AppLovin experiencing declines of 17% to 24% in a single day. However, analysts from Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank argue that the market's reaction is an overreaction, as Genie 3 is primarily a development efficiency tool rather than a disruptor of business models [1][3]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement of Genie 3, the market interpreted it as a threat to traditional game engines and developers, leading to a sharp sell-off. This reaction was characterized as a "shoot first, ask later" approach, lacking rational pricing adjustments based on fundamental changes [5][6]. Analysis of Genie 3 - Genie 3 is officially positioned as a tool that can generate interactive 3D world models based on text or image prompts. However, this capability has been oversimplified by the market to suggest that it can create playable game worlds with a single sentence [4][5]. Misunderstanding of Value Creation - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the distinction between content generation and the creation of commercially successful games. The long-term value of games relies on structured systems, continuous content updates, and effective customer acquisition and retention mechanisms, which Genie 3 does not fully address [6][7]. Industry Structure Perspective - Deutsche Bank argues that the market has overlooked a critical fact: as content generation becomes easier, the truly scarce resources will be IP, user scale, and mature distribution and monetization systems, rather than the content itself [9][10]. Pricing Mismatches - The recent stock price declines reflect three mismatches: 1. A temporal mismatch, as the market assumed a mature state for Genie 3 while it is still in early validation [11] 2. A mismatch in pricing targets, as the sell-off affected companies with established platforms and cash flows rather than low-value content producers [12] 3. A mismatch in profit models, as the core valuation of gaming companies is based on stable cash flows from long-term operations, not short-term content generation efficiency [13]. Investment Implications - Both Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank maintain that the recent stock price fluctuations should be viewed as a correction following an overheated AI narrative, rather than a signal of systemic deterioration in the gaming industry. They suggest that the risk-reward structure for some companies has improved significantly post-sell-off [15].

特朗普提名沃什出任下届美联储主席后，市场迅速押注更鹰派的资产负债表政策，但高盛认为市场可能 误判。 华尔街见闻提及，1月30日，特朗普提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席。消息公布后，长 期债券收益率小幅上涨，美元反弹，贵金属重挫。市场似乎正为其"鹰派"的资产负债表观点定价。 但近期，高盛交易和研究团队纷纷就沃什进行深度分析，认为市场可能再次误判了新美联储主席的实际 立场。 高盛外汇策略师Mike Cahill提醒，仅凭沃什此前在美联储的言论判断其政策取向是错误的，他指出： 我们知道，至少表示愿意降息是他获得这份工作的先决条件。 高盛美债交易员BROWN表示，曲线陡峭化和互换利差收窄的交易已经充分计价，沃什关于资产负债表 的鹰派言论不太可能转化为重启量化紧缩政策。他说： 这对风险资产破坏性太大。 市场习惯性地误读新任美联储主席的初始立场，而每位近期前任都在上任第一年出现过显著的"误 导"。投资者正在经历又一次对新任美联储主席的"误判"周期，需要时间让市场适应新的沟通风格。 高盛经济学家Mericle：缩表难以推进，制度框架已成既定事实 高盛经济学家David Mericle梳理了沃什的核心政策立场。 ...

另外，当地时间2月2日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文称，他于当日上午与印度总 理莫迪进行了电话交谈。特朗普表示，双方达成了一项美印贸易协议，美国对印度的商品加征的所 谓"对等关税"将从25%降至18%，立即生效。印度也将相应地降低对美国的关税和非关税壁垒，直至降 至零。 据证券时报，特朗普称，莫迪承诺将大幅增加对美国产品的采购，包括价值超过5000亿美元的美国能 源、技术、农产品、煤炭（核心股）以及其他许多产品。特朗普还称，莫迪同意印度停止购买俄罗斯石 油并从美国购买更多石油，印度还可能从委内瑞拉购买石油。 昨夜美股大涨则主要与芯片股集体爆发相关。其中，费城半导体（核心股）指数收涨1.7%，闪迪涨超 15%，西部数据涨近8%，希捷科技涨超6%，美光科技涨超5%。 高盛(GS)在最新发布的报告中指出，尽管现货市场出现波动，但DRAM的合约价格不仅未跌，反而迎来 了更猛烈的上涨预期。 2月3日，在经历暴跌后，黄金、白银（核心股）价格迎来大反攻。截至北京时间8:00，现货黄金大涨 2.7%，报4784.89美元/盎司；现货白银大涨5.04%，报83.12美元/盎司。值得注意的是，就在2月2日，现 ...

⾼盛顶级交易员对周五暴跌后市场的看法 BY TYLER DURDEN MONDAY,FEB 02,2026-08:15 AM 这是极其忙碌的⼀周，⻛险偏好不断下滑，尤其是像贵⾦属和加密货币这样的"法定货币替代品"， 由于市场错误地认为凯⽂·沃什会采取鹰派⽴场，它们在市场上遭受了重创。 ⾼盛交易员迈克·华盛顿在评论上周的表现时写道，卖单流速最⾼的板块出现在管理式医疗和软件 ⾏业。但各类资产的动量破位也尤其加剧了市场的负⾯反应（我们已经就周五⽩银27%、⻩⾦9% 的历史性跌幅写了很多相关内容）。 ⾼盛的交易台数据显⽰，资产管理公司本周最终净买⼊约30亿美元，主要受科技和⼯业领域部分 个股推动，⽽对冲基⾦最终净卖出40亿美元，主要由宏观产品驱动。ETF交易量依然居⾼不下（盘 中占⽐超过40%，表明市场情绪偏空），且标普指数最优买卖盘⼝情况依然很差，当⽇平均仍约为 540万美元（相⽐之下，⼀年平均为1160万美元）。到⽬前为⽌，约44%的标普市值公司已发布财 报，股票反应总体符合预期，尽管不及预期的公司受到了严厉的惩罚。 机构经纪业务：美国多空 gross 杠杆率连续第4周上升，上升2.9个百分点⾄226.2%（创历 ...

法币贬值风险 (Debasement 高盛关于贵金属市场（主要是黄金和白银）报告的主要内容总结，日期为2026年2月2日，基于几位核心分析师和 交易主管的观点： 核心观点与市场背景 主要驱动主题： 去美元化 (De-dollarisation)：这是最持久的主题。 各国央行持续增持黄金，全球持有的美债储备总量已低于黄金储备总量，且此趋势预计将在2026年延续。 高盛关于贵金属市场（主要是黄金和白银）报告的主要内容总结，日期为2026年2月2日，基于几位核心分析师和 交易主管的观点： 核心观点与市场背景 主要驱动主题： 去美元化 (De-dollarisation)：这是最持久的主题。 各国央行持续增持黄金，全球持有的美债储备总量已低于黄金储备总量，且此趋势预计将在2026年延续。 法币贬值风险 (Debasement ofFiat Currencies)：自2025年起，机构投资者因担忧法定货币长期贬值而寻求黄金等资产 进行配置。 去全球化 (De-globalization)与地缘政治秩序变化：地缘政治事件（如报告中提及的委内瑞拉和格陵兰岛相关事件） 及政策变动，导致投资者将黄金视为避险资产，这部分资金倾向 ...

全球贵金属市场在上周五经历了一场历史性的暴跌，白银单日重挫近30%，黄金也大幅回撤。 尽管跌幅惊人，但多家华尔街投行分析师认为，这是一场由过度拥挤的持仓和保证金上调引发的技术性 出清，而非基本面逻辑的根本性逆转。 市场数据显示，iShares Silver Trust上周五下跌28.5%至75.44美元，创下有史以来最大单日跌幅；SPDR Gold Shares下跌10.3%至444.95美元。 据高盛交易部门观察，白银的波动率飙升至仅在全球金融危机最严重时期和新冠疫情封锁期间才出现过 的极端水平，其ETF名义交易量超过320亿美元。 该行在周日的研究报告中写道，黄金仍是一个动态的、多层面的投资组合对冲工具，央行和投资者的需 求依然强于预期。摩根大通预测，在央行购金和投资者需求的推动下，金价将在2026年年底达到每盎司 6,300美元。尽管金价越高"空气越稀薄"，但结构性反弹并未面临崩盘风险。 摩根大通目前预测，2026年各国央行的黄金购买量将达到800吨，理由是外汇储备多元化的趋势正在持 续不断。 相比之下，摩根大通对白银持"更加谨慎"的态度。分析师指出，白银近期上涨的驱动因素难以量化，且 缺乏像央行那样明 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to enter a medium to long-term consolidation phase after a short-term momentum decline [10] - The Shanghai government has initiated a program to purchase second-hand housing for affordable rental housing projects, targeting new citizens, young people, and graduates [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has approved a new national standard for automotive door handles, set to be implemented in 2027, addressing safety and usability issues [5] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have released guidelines for the construction of a low-altitude economy standard system, aiming for over 300 standards by 2030 [3] - The Ministry of Finance has introduced a temporary method for long-term asset input tax deduction, allowing full deduction for mixed-use assets upon purchase [4] - The stock of Guokai Military Industry has experienced significant price fluctuations, with a recent announcement clarifying that its commercial aerospace projects are still in the R&D phase and have minimal impact on revenue [7]

Goldman Sachs Asset Management's Global co-head of Third-Party Wealth and Chief Transformation Officer Bryon Lake tells Bloomberg that investor demand is increasingly focused on outcomes, particularly yield and downside protection. He says buffered and income-oriented ETFs remain a key growth area. Lake also outlines Goldman's broader ETF strategy, which emphasizes active management, technology, and data-driven investing across public and private markets. He joined the discussion on "Bloomberg ETF IQ" with ...