#寒武纪市值超5800亿#【高盛上调寒武纪目标价50%至1835元/股，看好AI芯片出货增长】#高盛将寒武 纪目标价上调至1835元#8月25日，高盛将寒武纪股价目标价上调50%至1835元人民币/股，主要因中国 云计算资本支出提高、芯片平台多样化及寒武纪研发投入增大。高盛同时上调寒武纪2025年—2027年净 利润预测59%、28%和29%，以反映AI芯片出货量增长。报告称，8月中旬中国信息通信研究院宣布寒 武纪等8家公司通过DeepSeek适配测试，印证了其研发能力。（新浪证券、中新经纬） 来源：@中国经营报微博 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reported significant institutional investor sell-offs in emerging markets (excluding mainland China) with a net sell amount of $4.8 billion from August 18 to 22 [1] - In contrast, the Chinese market experienced a capital inflow, indicating strong attractiveness [1] - EPFR data showed that as of the end of July, emerging market funds were heavily overweight in Indonesia and Thailand, while China and India saw the largest increases in allocation [3] Group 2 - Global actively managed public funds increased their allocation to the Chinese market in July, with China's share in these funds at 6.6%, which is 320 basis points lower than the past decade's benchmark [3] - Hedge funds accelerated net buying of Chinese stocks as of August 20, with the fastest buying pace in the past seven weeks, driven by both long positions and short covering [3] - From August 14 to 20, Chinese stock funds saw a turnaround in capital flow, with an inflow of $1.2 billion, following previous outflows of $1.1 billion, $1.2 billion, and $0.7 billion in the prior weeks [3] Group 3 - Passive funds reacted more swiftly, with five out of the top ten net inflow ETFs in the Asia-Pacific market being Chinese ETFs [4] - The iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) saw a net inflow of $226 million for the week ending August 21, while the KWEB ETF tracking the CSI Overseas China Internet Index had a net inflow of $183 million [4]

本文源自：金融界AI电报 高盛进一步上调中国芯片制造商寒武纪的目标价50%至1,835元人民币，称主要原因为中国云计算资本 支出提高、芯片平台多样化、寒武纪研发投入增大。高盛分析师Verena Jeng等人在报告中将公司2025 年-2027年净利润预测分别上调59%、28%和29%，以反映更高的AI芯片出货量。报告称，8月中旬，中 国信息通信研究院宣布包括寒武纪在内的8家公司通过了DeepSeek适配测试，再次印证了该行对寒武纪 强大研发能力的积极看法。中国云计算资本开支增长，2024年晚些时候基础模型推出后，推理需求不断 增加。其客户将芯片平台多样化，以在关税不确定性和数据安全担忧下降低单一供应的风险。 ...

Exhibit 1: 30-city daily property transaction volume in the primary market was below last year's level China Economic Activity and Policy Tracker: August 22 (Song) In this note, we update four sets of high-frequency indicators that we track: 1) consumption and mobility; 2) production and investment; 3) other macro activity; and 4) markets and policy. We publish our tracker on a bi-weekly basis. 1) Consumption and mobility Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 22 August 2025 | 3:58PM HKT And ...

22 August 2025 | 1:00PM EDT Weekly Fund Flows Faster Foreign Flows to Mainland China Global fund flows, week ending August 20 | | | Global Fund Flows Summary | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Millions USD | | % AUM | | | | 4wk sum | 20-Aug | 4wk avg | 20-Aug | | Equity | 7,355 | 3,034 | 0.01 | 0.01 | | Fixed Income | 98,580 | 23,489 | 0.27 | 0.26 | | of which: EM | 9,311 | 3,246 | 0.38 | 0.53 | | Money Markets | 129,229 | 1,283 | 0.32 | 0.01 | | FX Flows* | 26,382 | 20,363 | 0.05 | 0.15 | *Cross-bor ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has paved the way for a rate cut in September, but the key factor remains the upcoming non-farm employment data, which could provide decisive guidance on the pace and magnitude of the rate cut [1][10]. Employment Data Concerns - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the outlook for employment growth is bleak, similar to the slowdown in economic activity this year, indicating that the slowdown in employment growth is not solely due to trade and immigration policy changes [2]. - There are significant uncertainties regarding balanced employment growth, with Goldman Sachs estimating a balanced level of around 80,000 jobs, while the three-month average growth is concerningly low at 35,000 jobs [3]. Rate Cut Pathway - The potential for a more significant slowdown in employment data is currently high, which could influence the Fed's decision-making process regarding rate cuts [4]. - Goldman Sachs believes that the market has moved past the most severe uncertainties regarding tariffs, and if the next two data releases show improvement, the current weakness may be a temporary fluctuation [5]. Data Revision Worries - The market's heightened focus on the August non-farm data is concerning, especially given the scale of previous data revisions [6]. - Several factors contribute to the negative bias in future employment growth revisions, including overly optimistic birth-death models and historical trends of negative revisions during economic slowdowns [7]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the rate cut cycle could conclude by the first half of 2026, regardless of whether the economy is slowing or normalizing [8][9]. - The current yield curve indicates a flat state, providing a framework for future policy considerations [9]. Conclusion - Powell's statements have opened the door for a September rate cut, but the actual pace and trajectory of cuts will depend on the August employment data, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a cautious stance on the labor market due to multiple concerns [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that if the non-farm employment growth in September is below 100,000, it will help determine the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with concerns about the labor market's downward risks highlighted by Powell [1][2][13] Employment Data Concerns - Goldman Sachs expresses worries about future employment growth revisions leaning negative due to several factors, including overly optimistic birth-death models and historical trends of negative revisions during economic slowdowns [3][4] - The firm notes that the ADP data raises questions about healthcare sector employment growth, and household surveys may be overestimating immigration and job growth [4] Labor Market Outlook - The company is particularly concerned that the "catch-up hiring" in a few sectors seems to have ended, with employment growth outside these sectors nearing zero [5] - There is significant uncertainty regarding balanced employment growth, with Goldman estimating a balanced level of around 80,000 jobs, making the current average growth of 35,000 jobs concerning [6] Rate Cut Path - The path for rate cuts is heavily dependent on labor market performance, with the current window for observing significant slowdowns in employment data being now [7] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the high level of market focus on the August non-farm data, given the scale of previous data revisions, which raises concerns [9] Future Rate Cut Expectations - The firm believes that regardless of whether the economy is slowing or normalizing, there is a strong possibility that the rate cut cycle will conclude by mid-2026, coinciding with the next Federal Reserve chair's term [10][14] - The current yield curve in June 2026 is flat, providing a framework for future policy considerations [11]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has paved the way for a rate cut in September, but the key remains whether the upcoming non-farm payroll data can provide decisive guidance on the pace and magnitude of the cuts [1][9] Employment Data Concerns - Goldman Sachs indicates that future employment growth revisions are likely to be negative due to several factors [2] - The birth-death model may be overly optimistic [3] - Historical data revisions during economic slowdowns tend to be negative [3] - ADP data raises questions about healthcare sector employment growth [3] - Household surveys currently overestimate immigration and employment growth [3] Labor Market Performance - The outlook for employment growth is bleak, with a significant uncertainty regarding balanced employment growth [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates a balanced employment growth level of around 80,000, while the three-month average growth is concerning at 35,000 [3] - The substantial revision of July data has raised concerns for the Federal Reserve about potentially delayed responses to an impending economic slowdown [3] Rate Cut Path - The window for a more significant slowdown in employment data is currently open [4] - Market focus on August non-farm data is heightened due to previous data revisions [4] - The Federal Reserve is on track for a September rate cut, followed by cautious observation of the labor market for signs of further weakness [4] Rate Cut Cycle Completion - Goldman Sachs believes there is a high likelihood that the rate cut cycle will conclude by mid-2026, regardless of whether the economy is slowing or normalizing [5][7] - Powell's term as Fed Chairman ends in May next year, which may coincide with the end of the rate cut cycle [5] Yield Curve Considerations - The U.S. yield curve is currently flat as of June 26/28, 2026, providing a framework for future policy considerations [6]

美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上为9月降息铺平了道路，但关键仍在于即将公布的非农就业 数据能否为降息节奏和幅度提供决定性指引。 8月23日，高盛固定收益部门（FICC）交易员Rikin Shah等表示，在杰克逊霍尔会议之前，市场一直处 于观望状态。鲍威尔的最新表态已为9月降息开了绿灯，特别是在最近的就业数据修正引起美联储对就 业市场关注的背景下。 这正是鲍威尔在上次FOMC新闻发布会上提及并在杰克逊霍尔央行年会演讲中重申的"劳动力市场下行 风险"的典型例证。高盛交易员认为，如果8月非农就业增长低于10万人，特别是在政治压力面前，将有 助于确定9月降息。 高盛指出，如果劳动力市场进一步疲软，时间窗口就在当前。该行认为，无论是在经济放缓还是正常化 情景下，美联储都很有可能在下任美联储主席上任前完成本轮降息周期，即2026年上半年结束前。 就业数据修正引发担忧 高盛指出，对未来就业增长修正更可能偏向负面，原因包括多个方面。 首先，出生-死亡模型可能过于乐观； 此外，7月份数据的大幅修正规模也让美联储感到担忧。美联储可能担心，如果经济放缓即将到来而他 们反应过晚怎么办？这种担忧可能促使他们采取更加积极的降息行动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The attitude of international capital towards Chinese assets is undergoing a significant shift, with increased foreign investment and optimism about the Chinese market's future performance [1][8]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Hedge funds have rapidly increased their net purchases of Chinese stocks, marking the highest net buying volume globally in August, with 90% of hedge funds holding long positions in Chinese stocks [2][3]. - Emerging market funds have significantly reduced their holdings in the Indian stock market while increasing their allocations to Chinese mainland and Hong Kong markets [4][5]. - In June, foreign institutional investors saw a net inflow of $1.2 billion into the Chinese stock market, which further increased to $2.7 billion in July [6]. Group 2: Market Performance - On August 22, Chinese assets experienced a substantial rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.45% to surpass 3,800 points, reaching a 10-year high, and the STAR Market 50 Index soaring over 8% [2][3]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index also saw a significant increase of 2.71%, reflecting strong performance across various Chinese asset classes [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the influx of foreign capital into the Chinese market will continue, driven by the attractive valuation of Chinese stocks and the potential for significant liquidity from domestic investors [8][9]. - The Bank of America survey indicates a rising optimism among fund managers regarding China's economic growth, marking the highest level of confidence since March 2025 [8]. - The potential for over 10 trillion RMB in additional capital inflow exists, as only 22% of household financial assets are currently allocated to funds and stocks [8].