Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 142.40 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 86.6 billion for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 18%, which exceeded consensus expectations by 1% [2][3]. - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 10.6 billion, surpassing expectations by 23%, while adjusted net profit reached RMB 10.9 billion, exceeding expectations by 11% [2][3]. - The management indicated that while short-term subsidy competition in the domestic food delivery market may impact profits, the long-term profitability is expected to return to reasonable levels due to the company's strong operational capabilities and market position [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown includes core local business revenue of RMB 64.3 billion (yoy +18%) and new business revenue of RMB 22.2 billion (yoy +19%) [2]. - The company has seen a 25% year-over-year increase in active merchants for its dine-in services, and the flash purchase segment has expanded its product categories significantly [2][3]. - The company anticipates revenue for 2025 to be RMB 385.9 billion, with adjusted net profit projected at RMB 40.5 billion, reflecting a cautious adjustment due to expected subsidy competition [4][5]. Valuation and Forecast - The valuation for the company's various segments includes an 8x PE for the food delivery business, 24x PE for the dine-in business, and 40x PE for the flash purchase business, leading to a target price of HKD 142.40 [4][11][12]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 23.5 billion from the food delivery segment in 2025, with a significant reduction in the previous forecast due to competitive pressures [11][12]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is RMB 40.5 billion, with a projected EPS of RMB 6.63 [5][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 142.40 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 86.6 billion for Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 18%, which exceeded consensus expectations by 1% [2][3]. - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 10.6 billion, surpassing expectations by 23%, while adjusted net profit reached RMB 10.9 billion, exceeding expectations by 11% [2][3]. - The management indicated that while short-term subsidy competition in the domestic food delivery market may impact profits, the long-term profitability is expected to return to reasonable levels due to the company's strong operational capabilities and market position [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown includes core local business revenue of RMB 64.3 billion (yoy +18%) and new business revenue of RMB 22.2 billion (yoy +19%) [2]. - The company has seen a 25% year-over-year increase in active merchants for its dine-in services, and the flash purchase segment has expanded its product categories significantly [2][3]. - The company anticipates revenue for 2025 to be RMB 385.9 billion, with adjusted net profit projected at RMB 40.5 billion, reflecting a cautious adjustment due to competitive pressures [4][5]. Valuation and Forecast - The valuation for the company's various segments includes an 8x PE for the food delivery business, 24x PE for the dine-in business, and 40x PE for the flash purchase business, leading to a target price of HKD 142.40 [4][11][14]. - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of RMB 40.5 billion in 2025, with a gradual increase in profitability anticipated in subsequent years [5][22].

Core Viewpoint - Credit Lyonnais has lowered the target price for Meituan to HKD 185 due to profit margin pressures from competition in the food delivery sector and global expansion efforts [1] Financial Performance - Meituan's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue and adjusted EBITDA increasing by 18% and 62% year-on-year, reaching RMB 86.6 billion and RMB 11.2 billion, respectively, surpassing Credit Lyonnais's estimates by 1% and 12% [1] - The company anticipates a slowdown in core local commerce revenue growth and a year-on-year decline in profits for Q2 2025, as it prioritizes competitive responses and faces increased losses from new business ventures due to global expansion [1] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Credit Lyonnais projects a 13% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q2 2025, while adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline by 21% [1] - Core local commerce revenue is forecasted to grow by 10% year-on-year, with adjusted EBITDA anticipated to decrease by 12% [1] Adjustments to Profit Predictions - The firm has revised its adjusted net profit forecasts for Meituan downwards by 7% and 6% for the next two years, leading to a reduction in the target price from HKD 195 to HKD 185 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the food delivery market has intensified following Meituan CEO Wang Xing's statement about winning at all costs, raising concerns among investors about the sustainability of this cash-burning war [1][2][11] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The entry of JD into the food delivery sector has led to significant stock price fluctuations for both JD and Meituan, reflecting investor anxiety over the ongoing subsidy and traffic competition [2][11] - Since JD's official entry on February 11, 2025, the market has experienced a rollercoaster ride, with both companies' stock prices showing volatility amid investor concerns about profitability [3][11] Group 2: JD's Strategy and Performance - JD adopted a disruptive approach by offering "permanent zero commission + social insurance for riders," which initially boosted market enthusiasm and led to a temporary stock price increase [3][5] - However, JD's stock has faced significant declines, with a cumulative drop of approximately 17.75% in its U.S. shares and about 15.82% in its Hong Kong shares from February 11 to May 22 [3][11] - The company's new business, including food delivery, reported a significant operating loss of 1.327 billion RMB in Q1 2025, raising further concerns about its profitability [5] Group 3: Meituan's Response and Challenges - Meituan's stock price dropped sharply following JD's entry, with a cumulative decline of about 16% from February 11 to May 22, reflecting fears of market share erosion [6][11] - In response to the competitive pressure, Meituan announced a substantial investment of 100 billion RMB to support its restaurant ecosystem and launched a new instant retail brand [8][11] - Despite the challenges, Meituan's established ecosystem, including a strong user base and merchant network, remains a significant competitive advantage [8][11] Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Market Outlook - Investors are divided on the long-term viability of the food delivery market, with some viewing JD's entry as an opportunity to enhance its valuation, while others express concerns about the unsustainable nature of the cash-burning competition [10][11] - The ongoing battle is expected to benefit consumers and some riders in the short term, but it may harm the overall profitability of the industry [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Meituan's revenue for Q1 2025 is in line with market expectations, while the operating profit margin for its takeaway business exceeds market predictions [1] - The competition in the takeaway market is expected to intensify in 2025, as competitors are aggressively offering high subsidies to capture market share [1] - The report suggests that this intense competition is unsustainable in the long term but will exert downward pressure on growth prospects and profit margins in the takeaway market in the short term [1] Group 2 - The forecast for Meituan's earnings per share for 2025 to 2027 has been revised down by 3% to 15% due to anticipated declines in takeaway profit margins and increased investments in Keeta [1] - Despite the adjustments, the report maintains a "buy" rating for Meituan, but lowers the target price from 235 HKD to 200 HKD [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690.HK) with a target price of HK$172.00, representing an upside of 32.9% from the current price of HK$129.40 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a solid profit beat for Meituan in 1Q25, driven by strong local commerce profits, although it anticipates mixed reactions due to increased competition in the food delivery sector leading to higher subsidies [1][7]. - Meituan is aggressively defending its leadership in food delivery, expecting a healthy growth in food delivery volume into 2Q25, with a forecast of 9% year-over-year growth [7][20]. - The competitive landscape is becoming more fragmented, with expectations of a three-player market, which may impact future profitability [22]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for Meituan have been adjusted, with 2025 estimates showing a revenue of Rmb382,513.3 million, reflecting a growth of 11% year-over-year [3][20]. - The adjusted EBIT for the core local commerce segment is projected at Rmb44.7 billion for 2025, down from previous estimates due to increased competition and subsidies [20][22]. - The report anticipates a decline in food delivery EBIT by 33% for 2025 due to increased user subsidies [20]. Market Position and Strategy - Meituan maintains a leading position with over 14.5 million local service merchants and a strong user base, supported by membership programs [7][15]. - The company is focusing on expanding its Instashopping segment, which is expected to grow by 27% in 2Q25, driven by improved purchase frequency among users [17][20]. - Meituan's strategy includes significant investments in AI to enhance operational efficiency and drive growth, with a projected capex of Rmb14 billion for FY25 [20][22]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides various valuation metrics, including a P/E ratio of 15.9 for 2024 and a projected P/B ratio of 4.0 [3][9]. - The estimated free cash flow yield for 2024 is 6.6%, indicating a strong cash generation capability [9][10]. - The report reflects a downward adjustment in the target price from HK$200 to HK$172, considering the competitive pressures and revised profit expectations [22][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Meituan (3690.HK) with a revised price target of HK$160, down from HK$200, implying a 24% upside from the current price of HK$129.40 [6][8][36] Core Views - The food delivery volume growth is expected to sustain at 10.5% in Q2 2025, but operating profit (OP) is anticipated to decline due to intensified competition [1][3] - Despite near-term margin pressures and widening losses from new initiatives, the long-term competitive moat of Meituan in food delivery remains strong [1][6] - The report highlights a successful expansion in Hong Kong and ongoing efforts in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia [4][6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, total revenue grew by 18% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA of Rmb12.3 billion, exceeding market expectations [30] - The core local commerce (CLC) revenue also increased by 18%, with an operating profit of Rmb13.5 billion, reflecting a 39% year-over-year growth [30] - New initiatives revenue rose by 19%, but operating losses were recorded at Rmb2.3 billion, attributed to narrowing losses from Meituan Select and increased overseas investments [30] Revenue and Profit Estimates - For Q2 2025, CLC revenue is estimated at Rmb67 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, while OP is projected to decline by 24% year-over-year to Rmb7.7 billion due to higher investments and a challenging comparison base [3][31] - The report has cut revenue estimates by 2% and non-IFRS net profit estimates by 14-19% for 2025-26, reflecting the impact of competition and new initiative losses [31][32] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape has intensified since May 2025, particularly with peers launching promotional activities for the 618 festival, which is expected to affect Meituan's operating profit [3][5] - The report notes that while regulatory changes regarding platform fees are being implemented, Meituan's take rates and subsidies have remained stable [5][6] Expansion and Initiatives - The report anticipates stable losses from new initiatives in Q2 2025, estimated at Rmb2.5 billion, but warns of potential further downside in FY25 due to the Brazil expansion [4][6] - The focus for expansion remains on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, with successful operations in Saudi Arabia [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan with a target price adjusted to HK$192 from HK$204, indicating an expected return of 48.4% from the current price of HK$129.40 [6][13]. Core Insights - Meituan's 1Q25 results exceeded expectations, with total revenues of RMB86.6 billion, reflecting an 18.1% year-over-year growth [15]. - Management anticipates a deceleration in core local commerce revenue growth for 2Q25 due to increased competition and counter-revenue subsidies [3][25]. - The company is expanding its Keeta brand into Brazil with a US$1 billion investment over five years, capitalizing on the strong partnership between China and Brazil [5][42]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1Q25, core local commerce revenue grew 17.8% year-over-year to RMB64.3 billion, with an operating profit of RMB13.5 billion, achieving a margin of 21.0% [19]. - The new initiatives segment reported revenues of RMB22.2 billion, with an operating loss of RMB2.3 billion, improving from a loss of RMB2.8 billion in 1Q24 [19]. Competitive Landscape - Management acknowledges the current irrational competition characterized by high subsidies, which is not sustainable long-term [18][25]. - Meituan's management is committed to defending market share through increased investments while adhering to fair competition principles [3][25]. Growth Strategies - Meituan Instashopping has seen significant growth, with transacting users exceeding 500 million in 1Q25, particularly in non-food categories [4][29]. - The company plans to enhance its service offerings and expand product categories to meet diverse consumer needs, especially targeting younger consumers [27][34]. Expansion Plans - The launch of Keeta in Brazil is expected to leverage the country's vibrant economy and large population, with management confident in the growth potential of global food delivery [5][42]. - Meituan is also focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities to improve operational efficiency and support merchants in their digital transformation [44][46]. Future Outlook - Management expects short-term volatility in financial results due to ongoing high subsidy ratios from competitors, but remains confident in solidifying market leadership [25][49]. - The company has revised its revenue and profit estimates for 2025-2027, reflecting anticipated challenges in core local commerce revenue growth [53][54].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the specific company is reiterated as BUY with a price objective of HK$155, down from HK$180 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a solid first quarter with total revenues growing 18% year-over-year to RMB86.6 billion, exceeding consensus estimates [4]. - The core local commerce (CLC) revenues also grew 18% year-over-year, driven by a 22% increase in delivery revenues and a 20% increase in commissions [4]. - However, competition has intensified in the second quarter, leading to a forecasted slowdown in growth and profitability due to increased spending to maintain market share [2][3]. - The company is committing to a three-year RMB100 billion ecosystem upgrade program to support high-quality growth for merchants and improve rider benefits [2]. - The overseas expansion into the Middle East is progressing better than expected, with plans to enter Brazil with a US$1 billion budget [2]. Financial Estimates - Adjusted net income is projected to grow from RMB13.9 billion in 2023 to RMB54.4 billion by 2027, with a significant increase in EPS from 2.23 in 2023 to 9.00 in 2027 [5]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB43.6 billion, reflecting a revenue growth of 14% [3]. - The operating margin for the CLC segment improved to 21% in the first quarter, up from 18% in the previous year [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leader in the multi-category service eCommerce sector in China, providing a wide range of services including food delivery, travel, and lifestyle services [13][14]. - The large user base is seen as a competitive advantage, with opportunities for cross-selling across high-frequency categories [14]. - The company’s strong execution amid intense competition and growth potential from overseas expansion are highlighted as key strengths [3].

无需港股通，A股账户就能T+0买港股>> 美团低开高走盘中涨超1%，此前一度跌近5%。消息面上，美团公告，第一季度营收865.6亿元人民币， 同比增18.1%，预估854.4亿元人民币；第一季度调整后净利润109.5亿元人民币，同比增长46.2%，预估 97.3亿元人民币。 ...