美团5月27日耗资3.92亿港元回购301.87万股。 ...

近几个月，即时零售领域风起云涌，"东团大战"硝烟弥漫。今年2月，京东外卖正式上线，迅速在全国126个 城市布局，入驻品质堂食餐厅门店数突破30万家。4月11日，京东外卖百亿补贴上线，以"全民补贴+爆品直 降"的双重机制，计划一年内投入超百亿元，试图在即时零售市场分得一杯羹。4月30日，淘宝即时零售业 务"小时达"升级为"淘宝闪购"，在淘宝app首页以"闪购"作为一级流量入口，还联合饿了么共同加大补贴力 度。凭借淘宝的巨大流量和饿了么的运营能力，淘宝闪购订单量直线上升，不到一个月，日订单数就已超 4000万。 （图片来源：摄图网） 5月26日，美团发布2025年第一季度业绩报告，该季度营收达866亿元，同比增长18%。在财报电话会上，美 团CEO王兴谈到如何应对京东的竞争时表示，美团将"不惜代价赢得竞争"。王兴指出，美团过往也经历了几 轮非常激烈的竞争，相信美团这次也能获胜。他强调美团欢迎新玩家进入这一市场，也认可外卖行业有巨大 的潜力，但当前行业竞争中，有些补贴是非理性的，伴随着低质量和低价格。"我们欢迎新玩家加入市场， 共同推动餐饮外卖市场的扩大，新公司的加入也表明了外卖市场巨大的增长潜力得到了广泛认可，我 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index closed up by 0.43% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.48% [1] - Meituan (03690.HK) initially fell after earnings but later rose, closing up by 2.09% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Meituan's revenue and adjusted net profit for Q1 exceeded expectations, but short-term performance is expected to decline due to competitive pressures in the food delivery sector, while long-term confidence remains strong [1] Financial Performance - Meituan's Q1 revenue grew by 18% year-on-year to 86.6 billion RMB, surpassing CICC's expectations by 1.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 10.95 billion RMB, exceeding expectations by 21%, driven by better-than-expected core local business operating profits and lower-than-expected losses from undistributed projects [1] - The adjusted net profit margin stood at 12.6% [1] Business Outlook - CICC anticipates steady growth in Meituan's food delivery order volume and in-store hotel and travel GTV for Q2 [1] - The firm has revised down its adjusted net profit forecasts for Meituan for 2025 and 2026 by 13% and 5% to 40.9 billion RMB and 54.1 billion RMB, respectively, due to increased food delivery subsidies and greater overseas investments [1] Investment Rating - Despite the short-term performance adjustments, CICC maintains a positive outlook on Meituan, rating it as outperforming the industry with a target price of 177 HKD, corresponding to adjusted P/E ratios of 25x and 18x for 2025 and 2026, respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Credit Lyonnais has lowered the target price for Meituan to HKD 185 due to profit margin pressures from competition in the food delivery sector and global expansion efforts [1] Financial Performance - Meituan's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue and adjusted EBITDA increasing by 18% and 62% year-on-year, reaching RMB 86.6 billion and RMB 11.2 billion, respectively, surpassing Credit Lyonnais's estimates by 1% and 12% [1] - The company anticipates a slowdown in core local commerce revenue growth and a year-on-year decline in profits for Q2 2025, as it prioritizes competitive responses and faces increased losses from new business ventures due to global expansion [1] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Credit Lyonnais projects a 13% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q2 2025, while adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline by 21% [1] - Core local commerce revenue is forecasted to grow by 10% year-on-year, with adjusted EBITDA anticipated to decrease by 12% [1] Adjustments to Profit Predictions - The firm has revised its adjusted net profit forecasts for Meituan downwards by 7% and 6% for the next two years, leading to a reduction in the target price from HKD 195 to HKD 185 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the food delivery market has intensified following Meituan CEO Wang Xing's statement about winning at all costs, raising concerns among investors about the sustainability of this cash-burning war [1][2][11] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The entry of JD into the food delivery sector has led to significant stock price fluctuations for both JD and Meituan, reflecting investor anxiety over the ongoing subsidy and traffic competition [2][11] - Since JD's official entry on February 11, 2025, the market has experienced a rollercoaster ride, with both companies' stock prices showing volatility amid investor concerns about profitability [3][11] Group 2: JD's Strategy and Performance - JD adopted a disruptive approach by offering "permanent zero commission + social insurance for riders," which initially boosted market enthusiasm and led to a temporary stock price increase [3][5] - However, JD's stock has faced significant declines, with a cumulative drop of approximately 17.75% in its U.S. shares and about 15.82% in its Hong Kong shares from February 11 to May 22 [3][11] - The company's new business, including food delivery, reported a significant operating loss of 1.327 billion RMB in Q1 2025, raising further concerns about its profitability [5] Group 3: Meituan's Response and Challenges - Meituan's stock price dropped sharply following JD's entry, with a cumulative decline of about 16% from February 11 to May 22, reflecting fears of market share erosion [6][11] - In response to the competitive pressure, Meituan announced a substantial investment of 100 billion RMB to support its restaurant ecosystem and launched a new instant retail brand [8][11] - Despite the challenges, Meituan's established ecosystem, including a strong user base and merchant network, remains a significant competitive advantage [8][11] Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Market Outlook - Investors are divided on the long-term viability of the food delivery market, with some viewing JD's entry as an opportunity to enhance its valuation, while others express concerns about the unsustainable nature of the cash-burning competition [10][11] - The ongoing battle is expected to benefit consumers and some riders in the short term, but it may harm the overall profitability of the industry [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Meituan's revenue for Q1 2025 is in line with market expectations, while the operating profit margin for its takeaway business exceeds market predictions [1] - The competition in the takeaway market is expected to intensify in 2025, as competitors are aggressively offering high subsidies to capture market share [1] - The report suggests that this intense competition is unsustainable in the long term but will exert downward pressure on growth prospects and profit margins in the takeaway market in the short term [1] Group 2 - The forecast for Meituan's earnings per share for 2025 to 2027 has been revised down by 3% to 15% due to anticipated declines in takeaway profit margins and increased investments in Keeta [1] - Despite the adjustments, the report maintains a "buy" rating for Meituan, but lowers the target price from 235 HKD to 200 HKD [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the specific company is reiterated as BUY with a price objective of HK$155, down from HK$180 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a solid first quarter with total revenues growing 18% year-over-year to RMB86.6 billion, exceeding consensus estimates [4]. - The core local commerce (CLC) revenues also grew 18% year-over-year, driven by a 22% increase in delivery revenues and a 20% increase in commissions [4]. - However, competition has intensified in the second quarter, leading to a forecasted slowdown in growth and profitability due to increased spending to maintain market share [2][3]. - The company is committing to a three-year RMB100 billion ecosystem upgrade program to support high-quality growth for merchants and improve rider benefits [2]. - The overseas expansion into the Middle East is progressing better than expected, with plans to enter Brazil with a US$1 billion budget [2]. Financial Estimates - Adjusted net income is projected to grow from RMB13.9 billion in 2023 to RMB54.4 billion by 2027, with a significant increase in EPS from 2.23 in 2023 to 9.00 in 2027 [5]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB43.6 billion, reflecting a revenue growth of 14% [3]. - The operating margin for the CLC segment improved to 21% in the first quarter, up from 18% in the previous year [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leader in the multi-category service eCommerce sector in China, providing a wide range of services including food delivery, travel, and lifestyle services [13][14]. - The large user base is seen as a competitive advantage, with opportunities for cross-selling across high-frequency categories [14]. - The company’s strong execution amid intense competition and growth potential from overseas expansion are highlighted as key strengths [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan with a target price adjusted to HK$192 from HK$204, indicating an expected return of 48.4% from the current price of HK$129.40 [6][13]. Core Insights - Meituan's 1Q25 results exceeded expectations, with total revenues of RMB86.6 billion, reflecting an 18.1% year-over-year growth [15]. - Management anticipates a deceleration in core local commerce revenue growth for 2Q25 due to increased competition and counter-revenue subsidies [3][25]. - The company is expanding its Keeta brand into Brazil with a US$1 billion investment over five years, capitalizing on the strong partnership between China and Brazil [5][42]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1Q25, core local commerce revenue grew 17.8% year-over-year to RMB64.3 billion, with an operating profit of RMB13.5 billion, achieving a margin of 21.0% [19]. - The new initiatives segment reported revenues of RMB22.2 billion, with an operating loss of RMB2.3 billion, improving from a loss of RMB2.8 billion in 1Q24 [19]. Competitive Landscape - Management acknowledges the current irrational competition characterized by high subsidies, which is not sustainable long-term [18][25]. - Meituan's management is committed to defending market share through increased investments while adhering to fair competition principles [3][25]. Growth Strategies - Meituan Instashopping has seen significant growth, with transacting users exceeding 500 million in 1Q25, particularly in non-food categories [4][29]. - The company plans to enhance its service offerings and expand product categories to meet diverse consumer needs, especially targeting younger consumers [27][34]. Expansion Plans - The launch of Keeta in Brazil is expected to leverage the country's vibrant economy and large population, with management confident in the growth potential of global food delivery [5][42]. - Meituan is also focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities to improve operational efficiency and support merchants in their digital transformation [44][46]. Future Outlook - Management expects short-term volatility in financial results due to ongoing high subsidy ratios from competitors, but remains confident in solidifying market leadership [25][49]. - The company has revised its revenue and profit estimates for 2025-2027, reflecting anticipated challenges in core local commerce revenue growth [53][54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Meituan (3690.HK) with a revised price target of HK$160, down from HK$200, implying a 24% upside from the current price of HK$129.40 [6][8][36] Core Views - The food delivery volume growth is expected to sustain at 10.5% in Q2 2025, but operating profit (OP) is anticipated to decline due to intensified competition [1][3] - Despite near-term margin pressures and widening losses from new initiatives, the long-term competitive moat of Meituan in food delivery remains strong [1][6] - The report highlights a successful expansion in Hong Kong and ongoing efforts in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia [4][6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, total revenue grew by 18% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA of Rmb12.3 billion, exceeding market expectations [30] - The core local commerce (CLC) revenue also increased by 18%, with an operating profit of Rmb13.5 billion, reflecting a 39% year-over-year growth [30] - New initiatives revenue rose by 19%, but operating losses were recorded at Rmb2.3 billion, attributed to narrowing losses from Meituan Select and increased overseas investments [30] Revenue and Profit Estimates - For Q2 2025, CLC revenue is estimated at Rmb67 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, while OP is projected to decline by 24% year-over-year to Rmb7.7 billion due to higher investments and a challenging comparison base [3][31] - The report has cut revenue estimates by 2% and non-IFRS net profit estimates by 14-19% for 2025-26, reflecting the impact of competition and new initiative losses [31][32] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape has intensified since May 2025, particularly with peers launching promotional activities for the 618 festival, which is expected to affect Meituan's operating profit [3][5] - The report notes that while regulatory changes regarding platform fees are being implemented, Meituan's take rates and subsidies have remained stable [5][6] Expansion and Initiatives - The report anticipates stable losses from new initiatives in Q2 2025, estimated at Rmb2.5 billion, but warns of potential further downside in FY25 due to the Brazil expansion [4][6] - The focus for expansion remains on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, with successful operations in Saudi Arabia [4][6]