Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for EM local currency funds, suggesting a new phase of inflows as investors anticipate USD weakness [10][17]. Core Insights - EM fixed income investors are shifting towards local market funds, with a notable preference for non-USD denominated assets, reflecting expectations of USD weakness [10][21]. - The GBI-EM Global Diversified Index has returned approximately 8.5% year-to-date, outperforming hard currency returns of 1.6% [10][22]. - The report highlights a significant rally in the TWD, driven by exporters selling USD and foreign inflows into Taiwan equities [34][40]. Summary by Sections EM Fixed Income Strategy - The report outlines a historical perspective on EM fund flows, categorizing them into four phases from 2008 to the present, with a recent shift towards local currency inflows [18][21]. - The analysis suggests that a weakening USD is crucial for sustaining inflows into local currency funds, with projections indicating further USD depreciation [17][18]. LatAm Oil & Gas - Strong capital expenditure levels in Latin America are expected to drive a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3% through 2030, primarily from Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana [4]. LatAm Macro Strategy - The report assesses risks to central bank pricing in Latin America, indicating mixed rate valuations but identifying potential pockets of value in the region [5]. IMF Spring Meetings Takeaways - The IMF's latest projections indicate a weaker global growth outlook, with emerging markets facing increased fiscal risks and debt levels [60][63]. - The report notes that while fiscal balances are under pressure, there are positive developments in several countries, including Argentina and Nigeria, which may support their reform programs [70].

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" on global markets and the responses from countries like Europe, Canada, and Japan [1] - It highlights the need for better understanding of U.S. policies from a global perspective, emphasizing the cultural and political differences that create an "information gap" [1] - The introduction of the "New York Talk" series aims to bridge this gap by providing insights into the financial world through expert analysis [1] Group 2 - Guo Shengbei, the founder of GSB Award Fund, has a background in computer science and has transitioned from a technical role to a prominent figure in finance [2][3] - His career began at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo during the early 1990s, where he capitalized on the market's volatility and gained significant experience [4][5] - Guo's tenure at Deutsche Bank from 1997 to 2009 was marked by consistent profitability and successful navigation through major financial crises [8][9] Group 3 - In 2010, Guo established his own hedge fund, focusing on quantitative trading strategies, which required him to adapt from a specialist to a more versatile role [10][11] - His insights into the Chinese market led to recognition from major institutions, resulting in leadership roles at Citic Securities and other firms [11][12] - Guo's return to New York in 2022 marks a new chapter in his career, as he aims to leverage his extensive experience in the hedge fund industry [13] Group 4 - The "New York Talk" series has received positive feedback for its unique teaching style and rigorous logical reasoning, fostering discussions among investors [25] - Guo's predictions regarding market trends, such as the impact of currency swaps on liquidity and the implications of Trump's tariffs, demonstrate his analytical prowess [18][22] - The upcoming second season of "New York Talk" will continue to provide insights into the U.S. economy and Wall Street trading logic [25]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the industry, with a projected GDP growth rate of 4.2% for China in 2025, reflecting a slowdown due to tariff impacts [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that China's growth is expected to soften significantly in the second and third quarters of 2025, with persistent deflationary pressures [3][4]. - It highlights the reactive nature of current policy measures, including faster government bond issuance and modest monetary easing, aimed at supporting the economy amid tariff uncertainties [9][16]. - The report suggests that while tariffs are currently high, there is potential for de-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China, which could alleviate some economic pressures [17][21]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Real GDP growth is forecasted to decline to 4.2% in 2025, with a notable softening in growth expected during Q2 and Q3 [2][4]. - The GDP deflator indicates a prolonged period of deflation, with expectations of deflationary pressures lasting until at least 2026 [5][6]. Policy Measures - The report outlines a series of policy measures aimed at stimulating the economy, including a supplementary fiscal package of RMB 1-1.5 trillion and enhanced support for infrastructure and technology investments [9][16]. - Specific measures include unemployment insurance rebates for exporters and a relending facility to support service consumption [16]. Tariff Impact - The report discusses the significant impact of tariffs on China's exports, noting that the current trade-weighted tariff on Chinese goods is projected to decrease to 34% with exemptions, while headline reciprocal tariffs remain at 60% [20][22]. - It highlights the low elasticity of certain Chinese exports to tariff changes, indicating that many products are highly reliant on the Chinese market [28][30]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies worthwhile investment areas, including manufacturing upgrades, urban infrastructure renewal, and basic scientific research, as sectors that may benefit from policy support [12][16]. - It also notes that the technology sector is expected to see increased capital expenditure, driven by AI adoption and government support [89][91]. Social Dynamics - The report points to evolving social dynamics that may trigger further policy pivots, particularly in response to changing consumer sentiment and economic conditions [13][16]. - It emphasizes the need for social welfare reforms to address low consumption rates and high household savings, which have been a barrier to economic growth [71][75].

在OPEC+上周末决定6月份大幅增产后，高盛一个月内第三次下调了其油价预测。 在上周六的一次线上会议中，以沙特和俄罗斯为首的OPEC+主要产油国同意将日均产量提高41.1万桶，几乎是原计划增产量 的三倍，目的是惩罚像哈萨克斯坦这样长期违反该联盟配额规定的国家。 OPEC+在5月份已经实施了类似举措，标志着该联盟从捍卫油价的努力中急剧转向，现在看来这明显是一场针对美国页岩油 生产商以及哈萨克斯坦等各个超额生产的OPEC+成员国的价格战。 高盛的分析师现在预计，布伦特原油今年的平均价格为每桶60美元，低于此前预测的每桶63美元；美国基准WTI原油在2025 年的平均价格下调至56美元，低于此前预期的每桶59美元。 就明年而言，布伦特原油的平均价格预计为每桶56美元，低于此前的58美元，而WTI原油预计为每桶52美元，低于4月中旬 之前预测的每桶55美元。 | | | GS Forecasts ($/bbl) | | | Brent | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Brent Prior | Brent New | WTI New | WTI Prior | ...

Financial Performance - The company reported net revenues of $17.7 billion for Q1 2025, a 17% increase from $15.1 billion in Q1 2024[23]. - Net income applicable to the company was $4.3 billion, reflecting a 26% increase compared to $3.4 billion in the prior year quarter[23]. - Diluted earnings per common share rose to $2.60, up 29% from $2.02 in the prior year quarter[23]. - Net revenues for the three months ended March 31, 2025, increased to $17,739 million, up 17.3% from $15,136 million in the same period of 2024[40]. - Earnings applicable to common shareholders rose to $4,157 million, representing a 27.2% increase from $3,266 million year-over-year[40]. - Earnings per diluted common share increased to $2.60, compared to $2.02 in the prior year, reflecting a 28.7% growth[40]. - Return on equity (ROE) increased to 17.4%, up from 14.5% in the prior year, while return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) rose to 23.0% from 19.7%[40]. - Net income applicable to Morgan Stanley increased by 39% to $2,529 million from $1,819 million in the prior year[61]. Revenue Breakdown - Institutional Securities generated net revenues of $9.0 billion, driven by strong performance in Equity and Investment Banking[27]. - Wealth Management achieved net revenues of $7.3 billion, with a pre-tax margin of 26.6 and net new asset additions of $94 billion[27]. - Investment Management reported net revenues of $1.6 billion, primarily from asset management fees on average AUM of $1.7 trillion[27]. - Total net revenues increased by 28% to $8,983 million in Q1 2025 compared to $7,016 million in Q1 2024[61]. - Advisory revenues rose by 22% to $563 million, while Equity underwriting revenues decreased by 26% to $319 million[61]. - Fixed Income revenues increased by 22% to $677 million, contributing to total Investment Banking revenues of $1,559 million, an 8% increase year-over-year[63]. - Wealth Management net revenues grew by 6% to $7,327 million, driven by a 15% increase in asset management revenues to $4,396 million[80]. Expenses and Efficiency - The company’s expense efficiency ratio was 68%, with non-compensation expenses increasing by 12% to $4.5 billion due to higher execution-related expenses[27][28]. - The expense efficiency ratio improved to 68%, down from 71% in the previous year, indicating better cost management[40]. - Non-interest expenses rose by 20% to $5,611 million, primarily due to increased compensation and benefits expenses[77]. - Non-interest expenses rose by 5% to $5,332 million, mainly due to higher compensation and benefits expenses[95]. Credit and Risk Management - The provision for credit losses was $135 million, reflecting portfolio growth and a weaker macroeconomic outlook[29]. - Provision for credit losses increased to $91 million, reflecting portfolio growth and a deteriorating macroeconomic outlook[75]. - Provision for credit losses was $44 million, primarily related to specific loans, compared to a net release of $8 million in the prior year quarter[94]. Assets and Capital - Total assets increased to $1,300,296 million, up from $1,215,071 million at the end of 2024, reflecting a growth of 7%[40]. - Total assets under management (AUM) reached $1,669 billion, up from $1,479 billion in the prior year[110]. - CET1 capital increased to $76,975 million at March 31, 2025, up from $75,095 million at December 31, 2024, representing a growth of 2.5%[180]. - Total capital rose to $97,772 million at March 31, 2025, compared to $95,567 million at December 31, 2024, reflecting an increase of 2.3%[183]. - Total Risk-Weighted Assets (RWA) reached $502,622 million at March 31, 2025, up from $489,316 million at December 31, 2024, indicating a rise of 2.7%[184]. Liquidity and Funding - Average liquidity resources for the five months ended March 31, 2025, were $351,740 million, compared to $345,440 million at the end of 2024[40]. - Cash deposits with banks averaged $351.7 billion for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $345.4 billion for the previous quarter, reflecting a growth of 1.0%[134]. - The Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) stood at 130% as of March 31, 2025, consistent with the previous quarter's LCR of 130%[141]. - The company maintained sufficient liquidity resources to meet current and contingent funding obligations as modeled in its Liquidity Stress Tests[131]. Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased 8 million shares at an average price of $125.88 per share during the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to 12 million shares at $86.79 in the same period last year[163]. - The common stock dividend announced on April 11, 2025, is $0.925 per share, payable on May 15, 2025[165]. Regulatory Compliance - The company is in compliance with all Total Loss-Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) requirements, with external TLAC at $268,879 million as of March 31, 2025[187]. - The Stress Capital Buffer (SCB) remains at 6.0% through September 30, 2025, contributing to a required CET1 ratio of 13.5%[192]. - The company plans to submit its capital plan and stress test results as part of the Federal Reserve's annual CCAR framework[191].

潘森宏观的Claus Vistesen在报告中写道，关税的不确定性将限制法国经济的任何重大反弹。法国截至3 月的三个月里经济增长了0.1%，扭转了去年年底的收缩，但几乎没有显示出强劲势头的迹象。根据潘 森宏观的估计，由于国内需求疲软，加上美国贸易关税造成了破坏性的不确定性，法国经济将在第二季 度保持这种蹒跚的增长速度，然后在今年剩余时间里陷入停滞。然而，关税政策的变化可能会改变这种 前景。 国外 1. 高盛：大幅下调美国一季度GDP增速至-0.8% 高盛最新研报表示，美国3月份商品贸易逆差扩大幅度超过预期。三月份货物进出口双双增长。贸易逆 差扩大的主要原因是消费品进口增加，这可能反映了在关税上调之前进口的"抢跑"。先行经济指标报告 的细节显示，与我们之前的GDP追踪假设相比，进口增长明显强劲，但出口增长温和走强，库存积累速 度加快。总体而言，我们将美国第一季度GDP跟踪预测下调了0.6个百分点至-0.8%（季度环比年化）。 美国GDP数据将于30日晚间公布。 2. 大摩：关税政策的不确定性，叠加美联储独立性受到质疑，或导致外资削减对美投资 摩根士丹利报告指出，美国政府关税政策的不确定性，尤其是多次政策反复，叠 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley indicates that the global oil market is in a rare state, with futures prices showing recent supply tightness while signaling a future "meaningful surplus" [1] - The Brent crude oil futures curve is currently unusual, with the first nine contracts sloping downwards and then upwards, a pattern with almost no historical precedent [1] - In April, Brent crude oil prices fell by 12% due to the impact of the US-led trade war, OPEC+'s faster-than-expected supply increase, and rising surplus expectations [3] Group 2 - The current spot premium in Brent crude prices indicates a bullish sentiment, as traders are willing to pay a premium for immediate oil, but this is expected to shift to a futures premium by 2026 [3] - Analysts predict that Brent crude oil prices will drop to a low of $60 per barrel later this year, with current forecasts maintaining June futures at $65.03 per barrel [3] - Trade tariffs are expected to be a significant obstacle to oil demand, with a projected deficit in oil supply-demand balance in Q3, followed by a substantial surplus thereafter [3]

智通财经APP注意到，上周，标普500指数一度突破摩根士丹利设定的5500点阻力位，这主要受到中美 之间可能降低关税和美联储政策转向的乐观情绪推动。不过分析师警告称，这种突破行情仍然脆弱。 摩根士丹利分析师建议超配美股而非国际股票，尤其是容易受到美元走势影响的欧洲和日本股票。威尔 逊总结道："美国企业盈利的稳定性、质量因子优势以及潜在的汇率利好，在这个波动加剧的周期末段 创造了相对优势。" 摩根士丹利首席美股策略师兼首席投资官迈克尔.威尔逊在报告中指出："要持续突破5600-5650点区间， 需要四个催化剂取得实质性进展：关税实质性减免、美联储转向鸽派、长期利率低于4%且不伴随衰退 信号，以及盈利预期上调。" 他重申："投资者应该利用市场波动来增加优质资产配置——包括防御股和精选周期股——而不是追逐 那些缺乏基本面确认的突破行情。" 债券与股票相关性变化使得收益率走势对市场方向至关重要，近期10年期美债收益率的波动凸显了周期 末段的风险。摩根士丹利分析师指出："如果10年期收益率因期限溢价压缩而跌破4%，可能推动股市上 涨，但如果收益率超过4.5%，则可能引发避险行为。" 报告还强调，劳动力市场稳定是避免摩根 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reported strong first-quarter 2025 results, surpassing expectations due to solid capital markets performance and a robust wealth management business [1][2]. Group 1: Quarterly Performance - Investment Banking (IB) fees increased by 7.7% year-over-year to $1.56 billion, with debt underwriting fees rising 21.8% and advisory fees growing 22.1%, while equity underwriting fees fell by 25.8% [3]. - Trading revenues saw significant growth, with equity trading revenues up 45.2% to $4.13 billion and fixed-income trading income increasing by 4.8% to $2.6 billion [5]. - The company experienced net outflows of $13.6 billion in the Investment Management division, but assets under management grew by 9.4% year-over-year to $1.6 trillion [12]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - Morgan Stanley's partnership with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is expected to enhance its financials and solidify its position in the Japanese market [13][14]. - The company has diversified its revenue streams, with wealth and asset management operations contributing over 50% to net revenues in Q1 2025, up from 26% in 2010 [11]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Despite strong quarterly results, uncertainties related to tariff policies are expected to delay a significant rebound in the IB business, impacting revenue generation from M&A advisory fees [10][25]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has been revised upward to $8.61, indicating year-over-year growth of 8.3%, while the estimate for 2026 earnings has been revised downward by 1.1% to $9.21 [18][20]. Group 4: Valuation and Performance - Morgan Stanley's stock is trading at a forward P/E of 12.09X, slightly above the industry average of 11.11X, indicating a premium valuation [22]. - Year-to-date, the company has underperformed compared to its peers, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, as well as the broader market indices [25].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward revision in growth projections for Asia, with a specific focus on the impact of tariffs and related uncertainties on the economic outlook [3][29]. Core Insights - Asia's GDP growth is expected to slow sharply from 4.8% in 4Q24 to 3.6% in 4Q25, reflecting a decrease of 120 basis points [5][29]. - The weighted average tariff on Asia has increased significantly from 4.8% in January 2025 to 43.8%, contributing to a decline in trade and corporate confidence [1][13]. - The report emphasizes that uncertainty surrounding tariffs is likely to persist, affecting business cycles and investment decisions across the region [7][28]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Projections - The report forecasts a significant slowdown in Asia's GDP growth, with specific country projections indicating declines, such as China from 5.4% to 3.7% and Hong Kong from 2.4% to 1.2% [5][29]. - The overall GDP growth estimate for Asia is lowered to 4% for 2025, down from 4.4% previously [29]. Tariff Impact - The report highlights that the escalation of tariffs raises recession risks and has already negatively impacted the business cycle, leading to a wait-and-see approach among corporations [8][31]. - The likelihood of reaching trade deals varies by country, with economies like India, Japan, and Korea being more likely to secure agreements compared to China and Vietnam [10][9]. Monetary and Fiscal Policy Outlook - The report anticipates more monetary easing across Asia, with specific measures expected from central banks in response to the economic slowdown [46][49]. - In China, a significant fiscal easing package is expected, while other Asian economies may face constraints due to rising public debt levels [56][57]. Sectoral Analysis - Trade-oriented economies such as Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia are projected to experience sharper slowdowns due to their exposure to tariff impacts [31][32]. - India is viewed as relatively better positioned due to supportive policy measures, although its growth forecast has also been adjusted downward [33][44].