华尔街新兴市场的投资者在多年错失美国股市飙升后，终于看到了机会。摩根士丹利投资管理公司、 AQR Capital Management、美国银行和富兰克林邓普顿等公司都押注，形势最终可能会转向有利于发展 中市场股票。 美国银行的Michael Hartnett将其称为"下一个牛市"。AQR预测，未来5到10年，这些股市以本币计算的 年回报率将接近6%，超过以美元计算的美国股市4%的涨幅。 尽管标普500指数近几周出现反弹，但截至上周五收盘，该指数年内持平，而新兴市场指数则上涨了 10%。这一涨势点燃了人们的希望：新兴市场过去15年的黯淡表现可能会结束。在这15年里，美国基准 股指飙升了400%以上，而发展中国家股市只上涨了7%。 富兰克林邓普顿投资策略师Christy Tan表示："美元的贬值风险给投资者敲响了警钟。"她将发展中国家 债券视为美国国债的替代品。"我们认为，美国例外论暂时结束了。" 过去14年，标普500指数的涨幅几乎是新兴市场指数的10倍 摩根士丹利投资管理公司副首席投资官Jitania Kandhari表示："现在我们终于有了催化剂。"两年前，她 从美国转向新兴市场股票，宣布新兴市场时代已经 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, the company achieved a return on average tangible common equity of 18.8% and diluted earnings per share of $7.95, with annual net revenues reaching a record $61.8 billion and net income of $13.4 billion [5][6] - The first quarter of 2025 produced a 23% return on average tangible common equity, with a capital increase of $2 billion and a 10% growth in equity capital base over the last five quarters [9][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Wealth Management and Investment Management businesses held $7.9 trillion in client assets at the end of 2024, on track to exceed $10 trillion [7] - The integrated firm strategy focuses on delivering strong results across wealth management, investment management, and institutional securities [6][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company capitalized on an improved capital markets backdrop in 2024, leading to strong results and durable earnings [8] - The outlook for the markets is anticipated to be less predictable in the short term, with adjustments expected due to trade policy and fiscal changes [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to capitalize on long-term growth drivers across wealth and investment management and its global investment bank [11] - A focus on a well-defined strategy, experienced management team, and a culture of rigor and partnership is emphasized for long-term success [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges a period of adjustment ahead, with higher volatility and uncertainty in the markets, but emphasizes the value of the company's global reach and insights [10][11] - The company is committed to prudent long-term planning despite near-term uncertainties [12] Other Important Information - The board of directors recommended against a shareholder proposal for disclosure of an energy supply ratio, which received only 13% support [27] - The company continues to invest in diversity and inclusion as a critical component of its culture and success [29][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry on Diversity and Inclusion Programs - The company highlighted its commitment to investing in talent and creating an inclusive workplace, which is essential for serving clients and delivering strong returns [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or assets discussed. Core Insights - The analysis suggests that foreign investors may be perceived as "overweight" in US assets, but this is complicated by the home bias of US investors, indicating that US investors are likely underweight in foreign assets [10][11][23]. - An appropriate allocation to US equities relative to the global opportunity set is estimated to be between 56-65% [10][16]. - The report indicates that the USD is expected to weaken if both foreign and domestic investors reduce their exposure to US assets through shifts in asset allocation or changes in currency hedge ratios [10][28]. Summary by Sections Foreign Exposure and Home Bias - The characterization of foreign exposure to the US as "overweight" requires a benchmark for analysis, with the US comprising 71% of the MSCI World index and 62% of the MSCI ACWI [12]. - Many investors exhibit a "home bias," holding a larger share of US equities than suggested by neutral weights, which complicates the assessment of whether they are truly overweight [10][19]. Market Capitalization and Earnings - The US share of global equity market capitalization is 67%, which adjusts to 60% when normalized by long-run P/E ratios [20]. - The US accounts for 56% of global corporate earnings and 27% of global GDP, indicating a significant presence in the global market [20]. Currency and Hedging Strategies - The report discusses the potential impact of changes in hedge ratios on currency markets, noting that investors from the eurozone have the largest holdings of US equities, followed by Canada and the UK [30][32]. - An increase in FX hedging could have a more substantial impact in markets with less liquidity, particularly for currencies like NOK, CAD, SEK, and KRW [34]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued USD weakness due to falling US rates, increased FX hedging of US investments, and rising risk premiums from policy uncertainty [45][58]. - The analysis suggests that the DXY could decline by 6% as a result of these factors, with the most significant weakness expected against JPY and CHF [44][58].

Core Viewpoint - The expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have changed significantly, with major Wall Street banks pushing back their predictions for rate cuts to December 2023, indicating a more cautious outlook on monetary policy [2][5][7]. Group 1: Changes in Rate Cut Expectations - Goldman Sachs has delayed its forecast for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut from July to December 2023, citing recent developments in trade tensions and a significant easing of financial conditions [5]. - Barclays has also revised its prediction for a rate cut to December, while Citigroup has pushed its forecast back by one month [2][7]. - The latest interest rate swap contracts indicate that the Federal Reserve may only cut rates by approximately 55 basis points this year, down from previous expectations of 75 basis points [3][10]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Trade Policies - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller highlighted that the Trump administration's tariff policies could increase inflation and hinder economic growth, even with a reduction in trade tensions [4][14]. - Waller noted that the current average tariff rate in the U.S. is significantly higher than historical levels, which could lead to higher inflation and slower economic growth [15]. - The increase in new car prices in April suggests that the tariffs on imports from countries like Mexico and Canada are beginning to impact the market [15]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market has reduced its expectations for rate cuts, leading to a rise in the two-year Treasury yield, which briefly surpassed 4% [11]. - Analysts from Morgan Stanley identified four key factors supporting the continued rebound of U.S. stocks, including optimism about trade agreements with China and a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [18]. - However, concerns remain as the ten-year Treasury yield has exceeded 4.4%, which could pose challenges for stock valuations [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite a recent surge in the US stock market, caution is advised as not all favorable conditions for sustained growth have been met [1][2][4] - Morgan Stanley analysts indicate that for a more durable rise in the US stock market, four conditions need to be fulfilled, of which only two have progressed: optimism around a trade agreement with China and stabilization in earnings revisions [2] - The S&P 500 index has recovered nearly half of its losses since February, attributed to the US government's engagement in trade negotiations with other countries [2][3] Group 2 - The current earnings season has seen a record number of mentions of "tariffs" by US companies, reflecting concerns over tariff uncertainties, with approximately 30 companies having canceled or suspended their earnings forecasts [3] - Following a significant rise, the S&P 500 index has surpassed previous resistance levels around 5700 points, returning to the range of 5700 - 6100 points prior to what was termed "liberation day" on April 2 [3] - For the US stock market to achieve more significant gains, further progress in US-China trade relations and improved earnings performance from listed companies are essential [4]

Group 1 - After the US-China tariff agreement, multiple financial institutions have raised their economic forecasts for China, with a significant reduction in tariffs impacting trade dynamics [1][2] - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its GDP forecast for China, predicting an acceleration in exports due to lower tariffs, with expectations for Q2 GDP to exceed previous estimates [1] - JPMorgan has also revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025, increasing the expected growth rate for Q2 to Q4 of 2025 to 3% [2][3] Group 2 - Optimism regarding growth prospects is improving the outlook for the Chinese stock market, with Nomura upgrading Chinese stocks to "tactical overweight" [4] - Citigroup has raised its year-end target for the Hang Seng Index by 2% to 25,000 points, anticipating it will reach 26,000 by mid-2026 [4] - Some experts caution against excessive optimism, noting that the Chinese stock market's performance still heavily relies on domestic fundamentals [4]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index has recovered about half of its losses since February, driven by optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations, despite concerns that the U.S. stock market has not fully escaped its challenges [1][5]. Market Breadth Indicators - The equal-weighted S&P 500 index has outperformed the market-cap weighted index for six consecutive trading days, indicating increased investor confidence across various companies [1]. - All sectors of the S&P 500 have seen gains since the suspension of the most severe tariffs by Trump on April 9, with technology, industrials, and consumer discretionary sectors leading the way [1]. - Craig Johnson from Piper Sandler highlights that a broader participation in stock price increases strengthens the market, as it reflects the number of stocks that are performing well [2]. - A market breadth indicator tracked by Johnson is about to trigger a buy signal, suggesting a positive outlook for the market [4]. Investor Sentiment and Economic Factors - Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Michael Wilson, caution that while investor sentiment is improving, it is premature to declare the market out of danger, identifying four necessary factors for a sustained rally, of which only two have progressed [5]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy and the current yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds exceeding 4.4% are seen as potential headwinds for market valuations [5]. - Concerns over tariffs have led approximately 30 companies to cancel or suspend their earnings forecasts, particularly in the automotive, durable goods, and industrial sectors, although these stocks have seen an increase in average gains since reporting [7]. Future Market Outlook - The S&P 500 index has surpassed the previous resistance level of 5500 points, and further meaningful gains will depend on the achievement of a U.S.-China trade agreement and a renewed acceleration in earnings revisions [7]. - The next significant technical test for the S&P 500 is at the intersection of the 200-day and 100-day moving averages, around the 5750-5800 point range [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the S&P 500 index rising for nine consecutive days, it is still down 3% year-to-date, while the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF has increased by 14% this year [1] - Morgan Stanley's chief market strategist, Mike Wilson, emphasizes a focus on cyclical factors rather than structural ones when evaluating U.S. and international stock performance [1] - Wilson believes that high-quality growth assets are favored in a slowing macro environment, with U.S. large-cap indices performing well due to their lower earnings volatility [1] Group 2 - Wilson identifies that the next significant test for the S&P 500 index will occur in the 5750 to 5800 range, where the 200-day and 100-day moving averages converge [2] - Two of the four conditions necessary for a sustained rally have been met: increased optimism regarding the U.S.-China trade agreement and stable corporate earnings forecasts [4] - For continued upward movement, a more dovish Federal Reserve and a 10-year Treasury yield below 4% are required [5] Group 3 - One downside risk is the deterioration of the labor market, although companies have not broadly implemented layoffs according to earnings call data [6] - Another risk is if the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 4.5%, which could negatively impact stock valuations by reversing the correlation between stock returns and bond yields [6]

智通财经APP获悉，中美贸易谈判初现曙光，摩根士丹利表示，出于对贸易谈判取得进展的乐观预期， 对冲基金，尤其是美国对冲基金，加大了对中国股票的多头押注。 该行在上周五发布的报告中指出，看到贸易协议有望达成的积极信号后，美国对冲基金通过增持在美上 市的中概股和国内A股，重新"拥抱"中国市场。 与此同时，该行称，对冲基金在泰国、中国香港、印度和澳大利亚等亚洲多数地区减持了头寸。 中美官员结束为期两天的日内瓦谈判后，双方表态积极。谈判前，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普释放缓和贸 易紧张局势的信号，称对中国商品征收80%的关税"似乎合理"，这是他对中国进口商品加征145%关税 后，首次提出具体的降税目标。 特朗普宣布加征关税后的那一周，中国股市曾一度大幅下跌，但随后开始回升。目前，沪深300指数和 香港恒生指数已基本回到特朗普宣布全面加征关税时(4月2日)的水平。 摩根士丹利补充道，对冲基金在中国市场的风险敞口仍远低于峰值水平。 "我们并不能准确预测中国市场走向。但在某个时点，其风险回报极具吸引力。"戴尔提到，全球投资者 对中国股市的持仓处于极低水平，且中国股票估值偏低。 中美两国周末在瑞士日内瓦展开关键贸易谈判。而在谈判前 ...

券商中国记者统计，从员工分布来看，各大外资投行的业务侧重点不同，欧美国际投行更为重视投行业务，虽 受A股IPO、再融资政策调整，投资银行净收入大幅减少，但该条线减员情况并不明显。而个别侧重经纪业务 的外资券商，比如野村东方国际证券受影响较为明显，2024年经纪业务条线的员工减少了41%。 值得注意的是，这无关外资对中国市场战略布局的变化，而是受行业周期和短期政策影响，去年9·24一揽子政 策出台之后，A股市场活跃度大幅提升，外资机构纷纷重估中国市场并加大配置力度。目前，瑞银集团正在推 进对瑞银证券实现100%持股，摩根大通中国则在4月底重启人才招聘寻求扩张。 外资券商2 0 2 4年减员1 0% 我国金融业对外开放进一步深化，A股市场活跃度和风险偏好提升，多家国际投行在中国设立的全资或合 资券商2024年盈利能力提升，不过受市场环境波动和业务侧重点调整的影响，员工人数有所减少，平均较 2023年末减少了10%。 近日，市场传闻野村东方国际证券有意调整在中国的业务布局，收缩最初的财富管理业务，转而扩展经纪及资 产管理业务，不过目前尚未得到官方证实。 据券商中国记者不完全统计，2024年我国外资券商（包括外资控股 ...