Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer, says labor market data revisions could eventually drive the Fed to lower rates further. https://t.co/dBXSFcw9Za ...

Group 1 - Oil prices have experienced their worst year since the pandemic, with Wall Street predicting that the decline is not over yet [1] - The average forecast from major banks indicates that Brent crude oil futures, currently trading around $62 per barrel, will further decline to approximately $59 by 2026, reflecting a 17% drop this year [1] - The five banks predict a surplus of about 2.2 million barrels per day in the global oil market next year due to production exceeding demand growth [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs holds the most pessimistic forecast among the five banks, with an annual average price of $56 per barrel, while Citigroup is the most optimistic at $62 per barrel [4] - Goldman Sachs believes that delayed oil projects during the pandemic will come online, increasing supply in the market [4] - JPMorgan expects the oil surplus to be less than the reported figures, as the OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, may reverse its strategy and significantly cut production by mid-next year [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of Morgan Stanley Investment Management is that the current 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, close to 4%, may be too low relative to the economic outlook for the U.S. [1] - The company anticipates that economic growth in 2026 will face increasingly favorable tailwinds, suggesting a stronger growth environment combined with persistent inflation [1] - As a result, it is likely that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates less than what the current market pricing indicates over the next 12 to 18 months [1] Group 2 - In this context, Morgan Stanley Investment Management has adopted an underweight position on U.S. Treasuries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the high probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which has risen to nearly 90% from about 30% three weeks ago, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards a potential "Santa Rally" in the stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%–3.75% [2]. - Concerns about the labor market are driving the rationale for rate cuts, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% and the unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20-24 reaching 8.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 2022 [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased to $6.5 trillion, with bank reserves at $2.9 trillion, leading to speculation about the potential resumption of quantitative easing to enhance market liquidity [3][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Seasonal Trends - Despite a surprising sell-off in November, traders are preparing for a "Santa Rally," as December typically shows strong seasonal performance for U.S. stocks [5]. - The Nasdaq 100 index has historically outperformed other indices in December, with an average increase of 1.7%, and if it records positive returns, the average gain could rise to 6% [6]. - The Russell 2000 index has shown even stronger performance, with a December average return of 2.3% and a monthly average positive return of 4.3%, indicating its stability and potential for higher returns compared to major benchmarks [6]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - Major Wall Street firms maintain a positive outlook for the market heading into 2026, with Morgan Stanley projecting the S&P 500 to reach 7800 points, supported by strong earnings growth and operational leverage [7]. - Bank of America adopts a more cautious stance, forecasting the S&P 500 to end 2026 at 7100 points, citing concerns over liquidity and the shift in capital expenditure priorities [8]. - There is a consensus among institutions regarding the ongoing earnings divergence, with AI leaders showing resilience while smaller companies may have greater recovery potential [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with market sentiment shifting towards a potential "Santa Rally" in the stock market as traders prepare for year-end performance [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The market anticipates a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% [4]. - Goldman Sachs highlights that the labor market is weakening, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% and the unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20-24 reaching 8.5%, indicating potential negative impacts on consumer spending [5][6]. - There is speculation about the Fed potentially restarting balance sheet expansion to increase market liquidity, with current assets at $6.5 trillion and bank reserves at $2.9 trillion [6][7]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Seasonal Trends - Despite a surprising sell-off in November, traders are preparing for a "Santa Rally," as December typically shows strong seasonal performance for U.S. stocks [8][9]. - The Nasdaq 100 index has historically shown the highest returns in December, with an average increase of 1.7%, while the S&P 500 index has a 75.6% probability of positive returns [10]. Group 3: Wall Street Outlook for 2026 - Major Wall Street firms maintain a positive outlook for the market, with Morgan Stanley projecting the S&P 500 to reach 7800 points in the next 12 months, driven by strong earnings growth and operational leverage [12]. - Bank of America adopts a more cautious stance, forecasting a target of 7100 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, citing concerns over liquidity and capital expenditure trends [13]. - Barclays notes a continuing trend of earnings divergence, with AI leaders showing resilience while smaller companies may have greater recovery potential [14].

Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson thinks the Fed has been slow to cut rates into the start of a new bull market, which could mean more rate cuts in 2026 than expected, supporting stocks. Wilson's view underpins Morgan Stanley's bullish take on U.S. stocks, contrasting others' calls for anemic growth in the coming years. Investors can find confirmation that a new bull market began in April in S&P 500 constituents' earnings, which are now growing close to 10%, the best in four years, according to Wilson. "That ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that economic growth in China and India is expected to remain stable, but China faces significant challenges, particularly deflation [2][3] - The actual GDP growth rate in China is projected to remain stable when adjusted for price changes, but nominal GDP growth is expected to continue to be sluggish [2][3] - China is anticipated to transition from deflation to low inflation by 2026, with a complete exit from deflation expected by 2027 [3] Group 2 - The outlook for the Japanese economy is described as very optimistic [3] - Despite global economic uncertainties, Asian stock markets, including those in China, Japan, and India, have shown resilience recently [2]

Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the "long context," investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Even ...

Group 1 - In November, China's exports grew by 5.9% year-on-year, reaching $330.3 billion, exceeding economists' expectations and improving from a 1.1% contraction in October [1] - Despite a nearly 29% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. for the eighth consecutive month, China's overall trade surplus for the first 11 months surpassed $1 trillion, reaching approximately $1.08 trillion, marking a historical high [1] - China's imports also increased by 1.9% in November, totaling over $218.6 billion, which is an improvement from the 1% growth in October [1] Group 2 - The U.S.-China trade truce, established during a meeting between President Trump and President Xi in late October, is expected to influence future export figures, although the full impact of tariff reductions may not be reflected until the coming months [2] - An official survey indicated that factory activity in China contracted for the eighth consecutive month in November, leading economists to caution against premature conclusions regarding the rebound in external demand post-truce [2] - Morgan Stanley projects that by 2030, China's share of global exports will increase from approximately 15% to 16.5%, driven by advancements in manufacturing and high-growth sectors such as electric vehicles and robotics [4]

《顶级投资人》本期嘉宾是摩根士丹利投资管理新兴市场股票团队主管Amy Oldenburg。摩根士丹利旗 下的摩根士丹利投资管理成立于1975年，在全球拥有超过50年的专业资产管理经验。目前，摩根士丹利 投资管理全球资产管理规模达1.8万亿美元，是全球不多的万亿美元资管俱乐部成员之一。 2023年，摩根士丹利基金由中外合资转为外商独资，成为摩根士丹利投资管理在中国内地全资控股的公 募基金公司。 Amy拥有26年的行业经验。这次是她今年第二次来到中国。她走访了深圳，上海和杭州的中国科技，制 造以及生物医药企业。她对自己看到的一切印象很深，她说，国际投资人应该来中国实地看看，否则将 错过很多机会。 第一财经：Amy，非常感谢你抽出时间参加我们的节目。首先，您此行的目的是什么？ Amy Oldenburg：非常感谢您的邀请，很高兴能来到这里。这是我今年第二次来到中国，很 高兴能再次实地走访企业、深入考察市场环境和整体经济状况。我们深感亲临实地进行深度 调研至关重要。 第一财经：您这次打算走访哪些企业？ Amy Oldenburg：（我们关注的）领域涉及方方面面，除了重点关注创新、制造业外，我们 也会聚焦深入解读"十五 ...