来源：证券日报 作者：李豪悦 2025年是中国游戏市场和中国游戏"出海"规模爆发的一年，被业内视为"游戏大年"。越来越多优秀游戏 涌现，得益于近两年版号数量的增长。据《证券日报》记者梳理，2025年，我国累计发放国产网络游戏 版号1676款，相比2024年的1306款同比增长28.33%。 值得一提的是，越来越多游戏厂商在申请游戏版号时，不再局限于移动端，而是增加客户端或主机端的 申请，实现多端并进。其中，2025年多端游版号数量达到了103款，相比2024年的94款同比增长 9.57%。 大厂纷纷布局多端游戏 2025年，多家上市公司及头部企业的核心游戏在申请版号时都增加了客户端或主机端。 例如，腾讯旗下的《王者荣耀世界》，在今年5月份的版号审批中变更信息，在原移动端版本基础上， 新增了客户端版本；完美世界旗下的《异环》，在5月份版号审批中，更是同时申报了移动端、客户端 和主机（PS5）三个类别；创梦天地的《幻幻灵之战》，在12月份的审批中，也同时申请了移动端、客 户端和主机（PS5）。 "当前来看，客户端和主机游戏在中国开始进入高速发展期，之后的市场规模大概率会越来越大。最重 要的原因是，2025年游戏厂 ...

Core Viewpoint - The media industry is at a critical juncture with the accelerated development of AI applications and an upward cycle in the entertainment sector, with expectations for strong performance in 2025 and continued strength in 2026 due to product and policy resonance [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The media index has seen a maximum increase of over 40% within the year, with the gaming sector leading the gains [1]. - The media index recorded its lowest point on January 13 and its highest on September 25, with a maximum decline of 6.42% and a maximum increase of 42.24%, resulting in an overall increase of over 50% from the lowest to the highest point [1]. - The gaming index exhibited the most remarkable performance with a maximum increase of 98.45%, while the film and cinema index benefited from the 2025 Spring Festival, achieving a maximum increase close to 50% [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the media industry maintained steady total operating revenue, with a nearly 40% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [1]. - The gaming sector's net profit attributable to shareholders grew nearly 90% year-on-year in the same period, serving as the main driver for the industry's growth [1]. Group 3: AI and Entertainment Trends - The rapid development of AI applications and the upward cycle of the entertainment industry represent a golden period, with AI now elevated to a national strategic level following the August 2025 issuance of the "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan by the State Council [2]. - Domestic IPs like "Nezha" and "Black Myth: Wukong" have gained popularity not only in China but also globally, showcasing the strong vitality of entertainment content forms born during the internet era [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The launch of multiple new games in 2025 has shown high traffic and revenue, which is expected to enhance the performance of related companies, with similar trends anticipated to continue into 2026 [3]. - The implementation of new regulations in the film and television sector, including adjustments to policies like "costume drama ratio" and "one drama, two stars," is expected to lead to a reversal in both policy and performance for the entertainment industry [3]. - The company recommends focusing on sectors such as gaming, film, AI applications, and IP due to the upward trend in the cultural and entertainment sector [4].

从AI应用方面看，2025年8月《国务院关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》颁布，标志着AI已上升 至国家战略层面，"人工智能+"有望延续"互联网+"的热潮，造就新生态、新场景、新商业。再从文娱产 业来看，以"哪吒"、"黑神话：悟空"等为代表的本土IP不仅在国内深受消费者喜爱，更是在全球范围内 掀起热潮。而例如游戏、影视等互联网时期诞生的娱乐内容形式亦展现出极强的生命力，《超自然行动 组》、《无尽冬日》、《哪吒之魔童闹海》、《疯狂动物城2》等众多爆款文娱内容依旧在2025年发光 发亮，吸引众多玩家和观众深度参与其中。同时国家广播电视总局在8月出台新政，着力促进文娱产业 创新，为内容注入了新的生机和活力。 关注爆款游戏流水表现与广电新政落地情况 国泰海通发布研报称，传媒行业正处于AI应用加速发展和文娱产业周期向上的关键节点，2025年指数 表现较好，2026年在产品和政策的共振下有望延续强势。基于AI应用的发展进程及文化娱乐板块的周 期向上，该行重点推荐游戏、影视、AI应用、IP等板块。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 传媒指数年内最高涨幅超40%，游戏板块领涨 2025年1-11月传媒指数最低点的日期为1月13日， ...

业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 袁伟嘉 A0230519080013 yuanwj@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 黄俊儒 A0230525070008 huangjr@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 联系人 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 - ⚫ 我们认为悦己消费核心标的（游戏巨人、华通、恺英等，泡泡玛特、云音乐、大麦）当 前已经消化至 26 年 PE 不到 20x，有较高安全边际，同时全球化带动第 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Media, Internet, and Education sectors are highlighted for 2026 strategies, with significant emphasis on AI-driven advancements and market dynamics [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments Advertising Sector - **AI Impact**: AI has significantly improved advertising efficiency, with Tencent's advertising revenue growing by 20% year-over-year in Q2 and continuing to rise in Q3. Kuaishou has made notable progress in user profiling and targeted advertising, while Bilibili achieved over 20% growth through AI enhancements [6][4]. - **Competition**: Third-party programmatic advertising platforms like Huishuangzang Technology and Yidian Tianxia are gaining competitiveness, driving transformation in the advertising industry [1][5]. Gaming Industry - **Regulatory Environment**: The normalization of game license issuance ensures a steady supply of content, supported by a resilient consumer environment. Major companies like Century Huatong and Giant Network are expected to benefit from a concentrated release of new products [7][9]. - **Market Dynamics**: The gaming sector is projected to maintain a high level of activity, driven by product innovation and commercial efficiency. Key players include Tencent, Century Huatong, and Giant Network [14][9]. Instant Retail Market - **Market Growth**: The instant retail market is expected to reach 1.175 trillion yuan by 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28%. Major players like Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com are heavily investing in this space, although profitability is under pressure due to intense competition [11][8]. - **Consumer Trends**: The county-level market is emerging as a new growth point, supported by the increasing number of rural internet users and their consumption habits [11][10]. Autonomous Driving Sector - **Competitive Landscape**: The autonomous driving sector is entering a price competition phase, with companies like Xpeng and Li Auto differentiating themselves through chip technology and self-driving capabilities. This trend is expected to enhance user experience and drive further development in the electric vehicle industry [12][10]. Short Drama and AI Animation - **Market Expansion**: The short drama market is rapidly growing, with approximately 700 million users in China. The market share of Hongguo exceeds 50%, while companies like China Online and Kunlun Wanwei are performing well in overseas markets, particularly targeting the U.S. [18][1]. - **AI Animation Growth**: The supply of AI animation (dynamic comics) has surged, with a compound monthly growth rate of about 83% in the first half of the year, resulting in over 3,000 works produced and a revenue scale that has increased twelvefold [19][3]. Education Sector - **AI Integration**: AI is increasingly penetrating the education sector, with companies like Dou Shen Education expected to achieve full AI integration by 2026, with AI revenue accounting for 90% of total income. Fenbi Education's AI interview courses are projected to enhance profit margins significantly [20][21]. - **Valuation Appeal**: Dou Shen Education's valuation metrics, such as a PS ratio of around 7 and a PE ratio in the 30s, are considered attractive compared to other sectors, which often see PE ratios of 60-70 [21][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Resilience**: The macroeconomic environment is supporting consumer resilience, with trends like the "lipstick effect" maintaining consumption levels [9][8]. - **Content Supply Recovery**: The film and television sectors are experiencing a recovery in content supply, with stable growth in box office revenues and favorable policies aiding the industry [17][7]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current trends and future outlooks across various sectors.

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's Q3 2025 performance significantly exceeded expectations, driven by a strong recovery in the gaming business and effective monetization of AI technology in advertising [1] Financial Performance - Tencent reported total revenue of 192.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15%, surpassing market expectations by 2% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders reached 70.6 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 7% [1] - The gaming business grew by 23% year-on-year, with domestic growth at 15% and international growth at 43%, both significantly exceeding expectations [2][3] - Advertising revenue increased by 21% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 3.7 percentage points to 56.4% [1] Gaming Business Insights - Domestic gaming revenue reached 42.8 billion RMB, with notable performances from long-standing games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [2] - The new game "Delta Action" achieved over 30 million daily active users in September, ranking among the top three in revenue [2] - International gaming revenue reached 20.8 billion RMB, driven by strong performances from "PUBG Mobile" and new titles [2][3] - Despite a projected slowdown in international gaming growth in Q4 2025 due to high base effects, a robust pipeline of games for 2026 is expected to support long-term growth [2][3] AI and Advertising Performance - AI significantly enhanced advertising eCPM and inventory release efficiency, contributing to a 21% year-on-year increase in advertising revenue, totaling 36.2 billion RMB [3] - The gross margin for advertising improved from 53% to 57% year-on-year, driven by AI advancements [3] - AI-driven advertising targeting and technology upgrades contributed 40-50% of the eCPM increase [3] Other Business Segments - Financial Technology Services (FBS) revenue was 58.2 billion RMB, a 10% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin improvement of 2.4 percentage points to 50.2% [4] - The company experienced robust growth in online payments and improvements in offline retail and transportation sectors [4] - Cash capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was 20 billion RMB, with a downward adjustment in 2025 CapEx guidance due to temporary chip supply constraints rather than a strategic reduction [4] Investment Outlook - Tencent's Q3 performance highlights strong growth in gaming and AI-driven profit release, with a commitment to high-quality growth strategies [5] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, reflecting confidence in its strategic position in the consumer sector and healthy profit growth [5]

Core Insights - Tencent's Q3 2025 revenue reached 192.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 63.1 billion, up 19% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast by 12% [1] - AI is driving significant revenue growth across all business lines, with expectations for continued increases in AI penetration [1] Revenue Breakdown - Value-added services revenue for Q3 2025 was 95.9 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3% [1] - Game revenue reached 63.6 billion, up 23% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast by 5%, driven by both international and domestic games [1] - Daily active users (DAU) for "Peacekeeper Elite" reached a new high of 33 million, supported by AI enhancements [1] Advertising and Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue for Q3 2025 was 36.2 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 2%, with a year-on-year growth of 20% [2] - The increase in advertising revenue is attributed to improved ad exposure and AI-driven eCPM enhancements [2] - The new intelligent advertising product AIM+ is expected to drive sustained high growth [2] Financial Technology and Cloud Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue for Q3 2025 was 58.2 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, with payment business growth continuing to recover [2] - Cloud services revenue is primarily driven by AI-related service demand and merchant technology service fees [2] - Short-term cloud business growth may be limited due to prioritizing internal AI computing needs [2] Future Outlook - Anticipation for sustained growth in gaming and advertising, with new game releases expected to contribute to revenue in 2026 [3] - Adjusted IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 226 billion, 261.1 billion, and 297 billion respectively [3] - A sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation suggests a target price of 664.22 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Core Insights - Tencent's Q3 2025 performance shows strong growth in both revenue and profit, driven by overseas gaming and marketing services [1] - The company continues to leverage AI technology to enhance advertising and e-commerce operations, improving efficiency and creating new opportunities [2] - The gaming segment exhibits robust performance from both new and existing titles, with a rich pipeline for future growth [3] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tencent achieved revenue of 192.9 billion yuan (up 15% year-on-year, up 5% quarter-on-quarter) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 63.1 billion yuan (up 19% year-on-year, up 13% quarter-on-quarter) [1] - Non-IFRS net profit was 70.6 billion yuan (up 18% year-on-year, up 12% quarter-on-quarter) [1] - The gross margin increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year to 56%, driven by high-margin self-developed games and services [1] Business Segments - Value-added services revenue reached 95.9 billion yuan (up 16% year-on-year), with domestic gaming revenue at 42.8 billion yuan (up 15% year-on-year) and overseas gaming revenue at 20.8 billion yuan (up 43% year-on-year) [1] - Marketing services revenue was 36.2 billion yuan (up 21% year-on-year), benefiting from increased user engagement and AI-driven improvements in advertising efficiency [1] - Financial technology services revenue was 58.2 billion yuan (up 10% year-on-year), driven by growth in commercial payments and AI-related services [1] AI Technology Development - The company is continuously upgrading its AI models, with its latest image generation model ranking first globally as of November 12 [2] - New advertising products enhance marketing ROI and support small and medium-sized advertisers [2] - AI integration in e-commerce is boosting transaction volumes on platforms like WeChat [2] Gaming Performance - New games like "Delta Force" and "Valorant" are performing well, with "Valorant" achieving over 50 million monthly active users in China [3] - Established titles like "Honor of Kings" continue to show strong user engagement, with daily active users surpassing 139 million [3] - Upcoming game launches, including "Honor of Kings World" and "Honor of Kings Chess," are expected to drive further business growth [3]

Group 1 - The A-share gaming sector remains strong, with the gaming ETF (159869) rising nearly 1.5%, and its product scale reaching 10.965 billion yuan as of October 30 [1] - The game industry is experiencing high demand, highlighted by the success of Bilibili's self-developed game "Escape from Duckkov," which surpassed 1 million sales by October 22 and achieved a peak of over 255,500 concurrent users on Steam [1] - Despite a year-on-year decline of 4.8% in the gaming market size for Q3 2025, the industry shows resilience with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.2%, and listed companies are expected to maintain high growth rates due to popular games [1][2] Group 2 - The actual sales revenue of China's gaming market for Q3 2025 was 88.026 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.96% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.08%, both figures exceeding market expectations [2] - The gaming sector is undergoing transformations driven by AI, content, and commercialization models, indicating potential for growth and investment opportunities in the gaming ETF (159869) [2]

Industry Overview - In October, a total of 166 games received approval for release, with 159 being domestic games and 7 imported games, marking the highest number of new game approvals in recent years [3] - The actual sales revenue of the Chinese gaming market for Q3 (July-September) was 880.26 billion yuan, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.96% but a year-on-year decline of 4.08% [5] Domestic Companies - NetEase's head of the tenth division, Li Kaiming, announced his departure to pursue entrepreneurship, with the company confirming that his exit will not affect the studio's operations [6] - Tencent announced that "Honor of Kings World" is set to be released in spring 2026 [6] International Developments - A report indicated that 26% of European developers faced layoffs in 2025, with 13% leaving the gaming industry altogether [8] - The price of in-game items in "CS2" plummeted following a patch that expanded the trade-up system, with the price of the Karambit Doppler skin dropping from over $2,700 to around $1,100 [10] - Koei Tecmo Holdings significantly raised its profit forecast for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year (April to September), expecting both ordinary profit and net profit to double, driven by strong game sales and effective cost control [11]