新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com 总第 4973 期 2026 年 3 月 4 日 星期三 研究观点 【公司研究】 银河娱乐集团（27，买入）：25 年第四季度 EBITDA 同比增长 33%，派息比率提升到 61% 【公司评论】 腾讯控股（700.HK）：周报 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 哔哩哔哩（BILI/9626）2025 年业绩前瞻 评级变化 | 公司 | 代码 | 评级 | 目标价(港元） | | 2025年EPS(港元) | | | 2026年EPS(港元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 新 旧 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | 新 | 旧 | 变动 | | 银河娱乐 | 27 | 买入 买入 51.05 | 50.06 | 2% | 2.400 | 2.300 | 4% | 2.600 | 2.600 | 0% | 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 咨 ...

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2026 年 3 月 4 日 星期三 【公司评论】 李京霖 + 852 2532 1957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk +852 2532 1539 Alexandra.lyu@ firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 股价 TMT 510.5 港元 市值 总股本 52 周高/低 每股净资产 4.65 万亿港元 91.06 亿 683 港元/414.5 港元 141.00 港元 股价表现 腾讯控股（700.HK）：周报 腾讯云：法兰克福数据中心扩容，混元 3D 加速海外 B 端商业化 2026 年 3 月 3 日世界移动通信大会（MWC2026）期间传来消息，腾讯云宣布将在德国 法兰克福新增 1 个云可用区。该新区预计今年二季度正式上线服务，届时腾讯云在 德国的可用区数量将增至 3 个。在基础设施持续布局的同时，腾讯混元 3D 模型已实 质性进入欧洲创意产业，德国软件公司 Maxon 已在其 Cinema 4D (C4D) 桌面应用中 集成了混元 3D API。该功能支持文本、图片 ...

要闻提示 NEWS REMIND 1. "满200减200"？ 豆瓣承认扛不住巨额损失：异常订单全退，每人补偿20元红包 2.N+1！上海一外企突然关闭，200名中国员工原地解散 3. 春节档泛运动相机"破圈"增长，大疆强势领跑三大细分赛道 4.智界汽车2月销量不足千辆！ 问界依旧是主力， 鸿蒙智行2月交付2.8万辆：同比增长31% 5.微信号竟成AI交友"盲盒"？女子突然收到陌生好友申请，对方直说"我是AI工具推荐的" 6. 原千里智驾首席科学家"秦海龙"加入Vbot维他动力，任研发副总裁 7.起售价4499元，苹果推出iPhone 17e！还是单摄刘海屏 8.索尼日本应届生起薪暴涨！玩家高喊：快复活日本工作室 今日头条 HEADLINE NEWS "满200减200"？ 豆瓣承认扛不住巨额损失：异常订单全退，每人补偿20元红包 3月2日消息，豆瓣商城在3月2日凌晨因优惠券系统漏洞引发全网"薅羊毛"热潮，大量用户以近乎零成本 抢购商品导致平台库存被清空。 豆瓣商城原计划推出"满200减20"的妇女节优惠活动，但因后台设置错误，将优惠力度错置为"满200减 200券"。用户只需支付10元运费即可获得原价200 ...

Core Insights - 2025 is anticipated to be a significant year for China's gaming market and the "going global" trend, with a notable increase in the number of game approvals, reaching 1,676 titles, a 28.33% increase from 2024 [1] - The trend of multi-platform game approvals is rising, with 103 titles approved for multiple platforms in 2025, marking a 9.57% increase from 2024 [1] Group 1: Multi-Platform Game Development - Major companies are increasingly applying for game approvals across multiple platforms, including client and console versions, as seen with Tencent's "Honor of Kings World" and Perfect World's "Yihuan" [2] - Multi-platform games are contributing to revenue growth for listed companies, with Tencent's "Delta Action" and NetEase's "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" achieving significant player engagement and sales [2] Group 2: Revenue Trends in Gaming - The client game market is experiencing a strong recovery, with sales revenue reaching 78.16 billion yuan in 2025, a 14.97% increase, while the console game market is growing rapidly with a revenue of 8.362 billion yuan, an 86.33% increase [3] - The rise of multi-platform games is attributed to broader player coverage and increased confidence in high-quality game production, particularly following the success of "Black Myth: Wukong" [3] Group 3: Channel Revenue Sharing Dynamics - The revenue-sharing model with distribution channels is becoming increasingly contentious, with Android channels taking up to 50% and Apple around 30%, impacting profit margins for game developers [4] - High distribution fees are prompting developers to explore alternative channels, with many opting to withdraw from Android platforms to mitigate costs [4][5] - The emergence of lower-cost client platforms is seen as a strategic response to high mobile game distribution fees, indicating a potential shift in the market dynamics [5]

Core Viewpoint - The media industry is at a critical juncture with the accelerated development of AI applications and an upward cycle in the entertainment sector, with expectations for strong performance in 2025 and continued strength in 2026 due to product and policy resonance [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The media index has seen a maximum increase of over 40% within the year, with the gaming sector leading the gains [1]. - The media index recorded its lowest point on January 13 and its highest on September 25, with a maximum decline of 6.42% and a maximum increase of 42.24%, resulting in an overall increase of over 50% from the lowest to the highest point [1]. - The gaming index exhibited the most remarkable performance with a maximum increase of 98.45%, while the film and cinema index benefited from the 2025 Spring Festival, achieving a maximum increase close to 50% [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the media industry maintained steady total operating revenue, with a nearly 40% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [1]. - The gaming sector's net profit attributable to shareholders grew nearly 90% year-on-year in the same period, serving as the main driver for the industry's growth [1]. Group 3: AI and Entertainment Trends - The rapid development of AI applications and the upward cycle of the entertainment industry represent a golden period, with AI now elevated to a national strategic level following the August 2025 issuance of the "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan by the State Council [2]. - Domestic IPs like "Nezha" and "Black Myth: Wukong" have gained popularity not only in China but also globally, showcasing the strong vitality of entertainment content forms born during the internet era [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The launch of multiple new games in 2025 has shown high traffic and revenue, which is expected to enhance the performance of related companies, with similar trends anticipated to continue into 2026 [3]. - The implementation of new regulations in the film and television sector, including adjustments to policies like "costume drama ratio" and "one drama, two stars," is expected to lead to a reversal in both policy and performance for the entertainment industry [3]. - The company recommends focusing on sectors such as gaming, film, AI applications, and IP due to the upward trend in the cultural and entertainment sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - The media industry is at a critical juncture with the accelerated development of AI applications and an upward cycle in the cultural and entertainment sector, with expectations for strong performance in 2025 and continued strength in 2026 driven by product and policy resonance [1] Group 1: Media Industry Performance - The media index has seen a maximum increase of over 40% within the year, with the gaming sector leading the gains [2] - The media index reached its lowest point on January 13, 2025, and its highest on September 25, 2025, with a maximum decline of 6.42% and a maximum increase of 42.24%, resulting in over 50% growth from the lowest to the highest point [2] - The gaming index exhibited the most remarkable performance with a maximum increase of 98.45%, while the film and cinema index benefited from the 2025 Spring Festival, achieving nearly 50% growth [2] - The media industry reported steady revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a nearly 40% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, driven primarily by the gaming sector, which saw a nearly 90% increase in net profit [2] Group 2: AI Applications and Entertainment Industry Trends - The rapid development of AI applications is highlighted by the issuance of the "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan by the State Council in August 2025, indicating that AI has become a national strategic priority, potentially creating new ecosystems, scenarios, and businesses [3] - Domestic IPs such as "Nezha" and "Black Myth: Wukong" have gained popularity not only in China but also globally, showcasing the strong vitality of entertainment content forms like games and films that emerged during the internet era [3] - Popular entertainment content such as "Supernatural Action Group," "Endless Winter," "Nezha: The Devil's Child," and "Zootopia 2" continues to attract significant engagement from players and audiences in 2025 [3] - New policies from the National Radio and Television Administration in August aim to promote innovation in the entertainment industry, injecting new vitality into content creation [3] Group 3: Future Expectations in Gaming and Film - The launch of multiple new games in 2025 has demonstrated high traffic and revenue, which is expected to continue into 2026 [4] - Anticipated new games such as "Honor of Kings World," "Yihuan," and "Famous Generals Kill" are expected to contribute positively to the gaming market in the upcoming year [4] - Following several years of a "cold winter" in the film industry, the implementation of new regulations, including adjustments to policies on "costume drama ratios," "one drama two stars," "40-episode limits," and "banning mid-show advertisements," is expected to lead to a reversal in both policy and performance for the entertainment industry [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [5][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights that core consumer brands in the gaming and entertainment sectors, such as Giant Network, Huatuo, and Bubble Mart, have reached a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of less than 20x for 2026, providing a significant safety margin. The structural consumption dividend from young domestic users willing to pay for enjoyment remains intact, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity at this time [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Gaming Sector - The gaming industry is experiencing a demographic shift with Generation Z users accounting for 65% of the market. The potential of female-oriented gaming segments is still underestimated. The overseas market expansion is expected to unlock further growth potential. The report emphasizes the resilience of leading companies in managing product cycles and suggests focusing on Giant Network, which has a strong daily active user (DAU) base and potential for IP development [6][7]. Trendy Toys - Bubble Mart is viewed as having overly pessimistic expectations regarding single IPs. The expansion of IPs and geographical reach (especially in Europe and North America) is seen as a cornerstone for mid-term growth. The company has 171 overseas stores, with significant room for growth in North America and Europe. The report anticipates that the upcoming holiday season will boost sales and social engagement for new IPs [7][8]. Music Sector - The valuation of Tencent's music companies is projected to average a PE of 17x for 2026. The demand for subscription-based music services among young users is stable, and the report suggests that the market is currently undervaluing this segment. It notes a clear segmentation in music consumption, with Tencent focusing on premium content and community engagement, while competitors like Soda Music target the low-cost segment [8][9]. Other Entertainment Companies - The report mentions that companies like Red Child City are expected to show high growth with low PE ratios. The Hong Kong internet sector is also highlighted, with Alibaba Cloud validating AI narratives and anticipating growth from AI applications and chip production [9][10]. AI and Technology Integration - The report discusses the integration of AI in various applications, including advertising and video content. Companies like Tencent and Alibaba are working on enhancing their chatbot capabilities to create a more integrated ecosystem for advertising, e-commerce, and lifestyle services. The potential for AI applications in gaming and robotics is also noted for the years 2026-2027 [10][11].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Media, Internet, and Education sectors are highlighted for 2026 strategies, with significant emphasis on AI-driven advancements and market dynamics [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments Advertising Sector - **AI Impact**: AI has significantly improved advertising efficiency, with Tencent's advertising revenue growing by 20% year-over-year in Q2 and continuing to rise in Q3. Kuaishou has made notable progress in user profiling and targeted advertising, while Bilibili achieved over 20% growth through AI enhancements [6][4]. - **Competition**: Third-party programmatic advertising platforms like Huishuangzang Technology and Yidian Tianxia are gaining competitiveness, driving transformation in the advertising industry [1][5]. Gaming Industry - **Regulatory Environment**: The normalization of game license issuance ensures a steady supply of content, supported by a resilient consumer environment. Major companies like Century Huatong and Giant Network are expected to benefit from a concentrated release of new products [7][9]. - **Market Dynamics**: The gaming sector is projected to maintain a high level of activity, driven by product innovation and commercial efficiency. Key players include Tencent, Century Huatong, and Giant Network [14][9]. Instant Retail Market - **Market Growth**: The instant retail market is expected to reach 1.175 trillion yuan by 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28%. Major players like Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com are heavily investing in this space, although profitability is under pressure due to intense competition [11][8]. - **Consumer Trends**: The county-level market is emerging as a new growth point, supported by the increasing number of rural internet users and their consumption habits [11][10]. Autonomous Driving Sector - **Competitive Landscape**: The autonomous driving sector is entering a price competition phase, with companies like Xpeng and Li Auto differentiating themselves through chip technology and self-driving capabilities. This trend is expected to enhance user experience and drive further development in the electric vehicle industry [12][10]. Short Drama and AI Animation - **Market Expansion**: The short drama market is rapidly growing, with approximately 700 million users in China. The market share of Hongguo exceeds 50%, while companies like China Online and Kunlun Wanwei are performing well in overseas markets, particularly targeting the U.S. [18][1]. - **AI Animation Growth**: The supply of AI animation (dynamic comics) has surged, with a compound monthly growth rate of about 83% in the first half of the year, resulting in over 3,000 works produced and a revenue scale that has increased twelvefold [19][3]. Education Sector - **AI Integration**: AI is increasingly penetrating the education sector, with companies like Dou Shen Education expected to achieve full AI integration by 2026, with AI revenue accounting for 90% of total income. Fenbi Education's AI interview courses are projected to enhance profit margins significantly [20][21]. - **Valuation Appeal**: Dou Shen Education's valuation metrics, such as a PS ratio of around 7 and a PE ratio in the 30s, are considered attractive compared to other sectors, which often see PE ratios of 60-70 [21][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Resilience**: The macroeconomic environment is supporting consumer resilience, with trends like the "lipstick effect" maintaining consumption levels [9][8]. - **Content Supply Recovery**: The film and television sectors are experiencing a recovery in content supply, with stable growth in box office revenues and favorable policies aiding the industry [17][7]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current trends and future outlooks across various sectors.

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's Q3 2025 performance significantly exceeded expectations, driven by a strong recovery in the gaming business and effective monetization of AI technology in advertising [1] Financial Performance - Tencent reported total revenue of 192.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15%, surpassing market expectations by 2% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders reached 70.6 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 7% [1] - The gaming business grew by 23% year-on-year, with domestic growth at 15% and international growth at 43%, both significantly exceeding expectations [2][3] - Advertising revenue increased by 21% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 3.7 percentage points to 56.4% [1] Gaming Business Insights - Domestic gaming revenue reached 42.8 billion RMB, with notable performances from long-standing games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [2] - The new game "Delta Action" achieved over 30 million daily active users in September, ranking among the top three in revenue [2] - International gaming revenue reached 20.8 billion RMB, driven by strong performances from "PUBG Mobile" and new titles [2][3] - Despite a projected slowdown in international gaming growth in Q4 2025 due to high base effects, a robust pipeline of games for 2026 is expected to support long-term growth [2][3] AI and Advertising Performance - AI significantly enhanced advertising eCPM and inventory release efficiency, contributing to a 21% year-on-year increase in advertising revenue, totaling 36.2 billion RMB [3] - The gross margin for advertising improved from 53% to 57% year-on-year, driven by AI advancements [3] - AI-driven advertising targeting and technology upgrades contributed 40-50% of the eCPM increase [3] Other Business Segments - Financial Technology Services (FBS) revenue was 58.2 billion RMB, a 10% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin improvement of 2.4 percentage points to 50.2% [4] - The company experienced robust growth in online payments and improvements in offline retail and transportation sectors [4] - Cash capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was 20 billion RMB, with a downward adjustment in 2025 CapEx guidance due to temporary chip supply constraints rather than a strategic reduction [4] Investment Outlook - Tencent's Q3 performance highlights strong growth in gaming and AI-driven profit release, with a commitment to high-quality growth strategies [5] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, reflecting confidence in its strategic position in the consumer sector and healthy profit growth [5]

Core Insights - Tencent's Q3 2025 revenue reached 192.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 63.1 billion, up 19% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast by 12% [1] - AI is driving significant revenue growth across all business lines, with expectations for continued increases in AI penetration [1] Revenue Breakdown - Value-added services revenue for Q3 2025 was 95.9 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3% [1] - Game revenue reached 63.6 billion, up 23% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg's forecast by 5%, driven by both international and domestic games [1] - Daily active users (DAU) for "Peacekeeper Elite" reached a new high of 33 million, supported by AI enhancements [1] Advertising and Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue for Q3 2025 was 36.2 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 2%, with a year-on-year growth of 20% [2] - The increase in advertising revenue is attributed to improved ad exposure and AI-driven eCPM enhancements [2] - The new intelligent advertising product AIM+ is expected to drive sustained high growth [2] Financial Technology and Cloud Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue for Q3 2025 was 58.2 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, with payment business growth continuing to recover [2] - Cloud services revenue is primarily driven by AI-related service demand and merchant technology service fees [2] - Short-term cloud business growth may be limited due to prioritizing internal AI computing needs [2] Future Outlook - Anticipation for sustained growth in gaming and advertising, with new game releases expected to contribute to revenue in 2026 [3] - Adjusted IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 226 billion, 261.1 billion, and 297 billion respectively [3] - A sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation suggests a target price of 664.22 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]