金十数据6月24日讯，野村发报告指，泡泡玛特(09992.HK)上周受多项不利因素出现调整，包括旗下标 志性IP Labubu二手交易价格显著下跌，及被内地官方媒体批评向未成年人销售盲盒等，集团股价于6月 16至20日下跌12%。然而，野村认为，短期股价疲软提供良好的入场机会，故上调目标价43%，由204 港元升至291港元，维持买入评级。野村认为，Labubu产品的二手交易价格下降主要是由于供应量的增 加而非需求量的减少；官方媒体亦旨在保护未成年人避免在交易卡上的过度或非理性消费，而非遏制泡 泡玛特的发展。整体而言，该行认为泡泡玛特的快速销售增长轨迹不会发生实质变化，尤其是受到美国 及欧洲市场强劲销售表现的支持。 野村：泡泡玛特股价短期疲软提供入场机会 升目标价43% ...

Core Insights - A traveler was found carrying a large quantity of counterfeit "POP MART" branded toys and packaging while departing from Beijing Daxing Airport, raising significant intellectual property infringement concerns [1] Group 1: Incident Details - Customs officials discovered 952 counterfeit toys and 1,586 pieces of plastic and paper packaging during a routine inspection of outbound luggage [1] - The traveler admitted to carrying these items for resale purposes, indicating a commercial intent behind the infringement [1] Group 2: Legal Actions - The customs authorities have detained the goods based on preliminary assessments of substantial infringement risks [1] - The rights holder, "POP MART," confirmed that the toys and packaging were unauthorized, leading to a formal request for intellectual property protection from customs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the stock prices of Pop Mart and its peers in the new consumption sector reflects a market correction, driven by high valuations and a cooling consumer sentiment [1][4]. Group 1: Pop Mart's Stock Performance - Pop Mart's stock price has dropped over 15% from its peak, resulting in a market capitalization loss of more than 500 billion HKD [1][2]. - The trading price of Pop Mart's popular IP, Labubu, has plummeted in the secondary market, with a 45% drop for hidden versions and a 54% drop for non-hidden versions [2]. - On June 20, Pop Mart's stock closed at 239.6 HKD per share, down 3.62%, with significant trading volume nearing 10 billion HKD and net selling by southbound funds reaching 617 million HKD, the highest since May 12, 2025 [2][3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - The new consumption sector, including Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group, has experienced a collective decline, with Lao Pu Gold down over 19% and Mixue Group down nearly 17% [1][4]. - Analysts indicate that the current high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios in the new consumption sector suggest overvaluation, with Pop Mart's P/E ratio at 97.17, compared to traditional consumer giants like Kweichow Moutai at 20.04 [4]. - Some analysts warn that if market sentiment cools or consumer enthusiasm wanes, stock prices may face further adjustments due to inflated expectations [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, some fund managers remain optimistic about the long-term growth potential of new consumption companies, focusing on emotional consumption, cost-effective products, and international expansion [5]. - Lao Pu Gold and Mixue Group have shown signs of recovery, with Lao Pu Gold rising nearly 6% after opening its first overseas store in Singapore, indicating strategic growth opportunities [6].

每经编辑｜马子卿 更名"消费物语"的这一天，小编发了一封致读者的信（《当"每经影视"决定成为你的"消费搭子" 买2万元冲锋衣的人和薅1.28元咖啡羊毛的人，在 这里神奇汇合》）。 这既是一次深情的告白，也是一次盛大的"宠粉"活动。我们邀请读者们在留言区写下与每经影视相识的故事，或是对消费物语的未来期许。从6月 18日到6月22日，欢迎大家在留言区留言。我们根据读者留言的点赞数量高低，"揪"出25位幸运儿，送上来自"消费物语"新朋老友的好礼。 这五天时间，是小编的幸福时光。每天都能收到让人感动的留言，比如读者小样儿说："三年前偶然读到朋友分享的每经影视对《战狼2》贴片广 告的深度调查，那些资本暗流与行业博弈的真相让我震撼，原来镜头之外的世界同样惊心动魄。你们用财经手术刀剖开文旅神话的泡沫、解读冲 锋衣两万元溢价背后的中产焦虑，让我从看客蜕变为清醒的观察者。期待更名后的你们继续在人间烟火中打捞时代切片，一手握物质脉搏，一手 抚精神脉络，做浮华世相里那束不灭的光。" 这篇刊发于2017年9月4日的报道《深度调查│<战狼2>搭载预告片不付费引爆"口舌" 背后暗藏30亿映前广告市场》，我们在公告信里并未提及。竟 能被小 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has significantly declined after reaching a historical high of 283.4 HKD, with a notable drop of 14.46% to 239.6 HKD, leading to a market capitalization loss of approximately 38 billion HKD, primarily driven by a sharp decrease in the prices of its flagship product, Labubu [2][9]. Group 1: Stock Price and Market Reaction - Following the news of Labubu's price collapse, Pop Mart's stock experienced a sharp decline, with a drop of over 6% on June 20, closing at 239.6 HKD, marking a 3.62% decrease for the day [2][9]. - The significant drop in stock price is attributed to the drastic reduction in Labubu's market price, which was exacerbated by a large-scale restock by Pop Mart [5][9]. - The market has seen a surge in short-selling activity, with short positions increasing from 1.438 million shares in early April to 3.692 million shares by June 17, a rise of 157% [10][12]. Group 2: Product Pricing and Market Dynamics - The price of Labubu's 3.0 series has plummeted, with the average transaction price dropping by 45% to 2547.84 RMB, and non-hidden variants experiencing a 54% decline [6][9]. - The drastic increase in supply due to Pop Mart's restocking efforts has outpaced market demand, leading to a rapid decline in secondary market prices [5][6]. - The overall market sentiment has shifted, with many consumers expressing dissatisfaction after purchasing Labubu at high prices, only to see their value drop significantly [9]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Pop Mart's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 95.34, significantly higher than competitors, raising concerns about a potential market bubble [12][14]. - Analysts have pointed out that the high valuation of Pop Mart, combined with the recent price drops, indicates a possible overvaluation in the current market environment [14][18]. - The company's reliance on IP products, such as Labubu, poses risks due to the cyclical nature of IP popularity and the potential for diminishing returns as the novelty wears off [17][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that JPMorgan maintains a "buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992), projecting a target price of HKD 330 by June 2026 based on a PEG ratio of 1.5, which is lower than the PEG ratios of leading Chinese (1.9) and global (2-3) consumer goods companies [1] - Pop Mart's stock has declined by 14% over the past five trading days, presenting a potential "buying opportunity" as the Hang Seng Index fell only 3% during the same period [2] - The company is expected to release positive earnings guidance in mid-July, with a forecasted profit of RMB 3.5 billion for the first half of 2025, surpassing the total profit for 2024 [2] Group 2 - Pop Mart is recognized as a leader in China's rapidly growing IP product market, boasting a strong portfolio of over 100 proprietary and licensed IPs, with 521 self-operated retail stores and 2,472 robot stores across more than 30 countries [3] - The company is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 51% in sales and 65% in profits from 2024 to 2027, with a net profit margin of 31.9% and a return on equity of 45.9% by 2027, driven by strong IP, new store openings, productivity improvements, and margin expansion [3] - Pop Mart's global expansion ambitions are significant, with overseas sales expected to grow by 214% year-on-year in 2025, contributing 67% to total sales by 2027 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup maintains a constructive outlook on Pop Mart's growth potential despite recent stock price weakness, attributing concerns to the decline in second-hand prices of LABUBU V3 and calls for stricter regulation on blind boxes and blind cards by the People's Daily [1] Group 1: Market Concerns - The recent stock price weakness of Pop Mart is primarily due to market worries regarding the decline in second-hand prices of LABUBU V3 and regulatory calls for blind box products [1] - The decline in LABUBU V3 second-hand market prices is attributed to increased supply rather than a decrease in the popularity of the IP [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Despite replenishment efforts, LABUBU V1 and V2 continue to be in short supply, indicating sustained demand and rising popularity of the IP [1] - The article from the People's Daily serves as a reminder against blind purchases, particularly highlighting the popularity of these products among minors, while noting that Pop Mart's primary customer base consists of adults [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Citigroup views the recent stock price adjustment as providing more entry opportunities for investors interested in Pop Mart [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market for new consumption concepts opened lower but rebounded, with notable gains in specific stocks [1] - Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK) increased by over 7%, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Mao Ge Ping (01318.HK) rose by more than 4%, reflecting positive market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Other companies such as Pop Mart (09992.HK) and Mixue Group (02097.HK) also experienced upward movement, suggesting a broader trend in the new consumption sector [1]

Group 1 - Shanghai Customs seized 6,960 counterfeit Pop Mart toys, indicating significant trademark infringement concerns [2] - The toys were found during a routine inspection and were confirmed to be unauthorized use of the Pop Mart brand [2] Group 2 - From January to May, China's national railways transported 1.641 billion tons of goods, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [6] - The average daily loading reached 181,000 cars, up 4.2% year-on-year, supporting the smooth operation of the national economy [6] Group 3 - In Henan province, a new policy was introduced to cap car loan interest rates at no more than double the current one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), limiting annual rates to a maximum of 6% [8] - This move follows strict regulatory measures against high-interest and high-return practices in automotive finance [8] Group 4 - 49 companies are set to have their restricted shares released this week, with a total market value exceeding 57 billion yuan based on the closing price on June 20 [26] - The release of shares includes significant companies such as Tiedao Heavy Industry and Sainuo Medical, with varying percentages of total shares being unlocked [27][28] Group 5 - One new stock is scheduled for issuance this week, with Yitang Co. expected to issue approximately 296 million shares, raising an estimated 2.654 billion yuan [29]

Core Insights - The article highlights the remarkable success of three companies from Henan, China: Mixue Ice City, Pop Mart, and Pang Donglai, which have transformed traditional industries and captured the global middle-class consumer market [2][12]. Group 1: Business Models - Mixue Ice City has established a clear business logic based on extreme cost performance, franchise expansion, and an efficient supply chain, allowing it to dominate the tea beverage market with low-priced products [3][4]. - Pop Mart has evolved from a small toy store to a cultural phenomenon through its blind box model, creating a unique ecosystem that combines IP operation, emotional engagement, and social currency [4][5]. - Pang Donglai has redefined the retail experience by transforming supermarkets into emotional spaces, focusing on high service quality and employee welfare, which has led to significant customer loyalty [5][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Mixue Ice City achieved a gross margin of 31.6% in 2024, significantly higher than the industry average, and expanded to 46,479 stores globally, making it the largest fresh beverage brand by store count [4][8]. - Pop Mart's Labubu series generated revenue of 3.041 billion yuan in 2024, a staggering year-on-year growth of 726.6%, contributing to a market valuation exceeding 370 billion HKD [5][10]. - Pang Donglai's single-store efficiency surpasses industry averages, demonstrating its successful adaptation to the retail landscape despite challenges from e-commerce [5][7]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - These companies have tapped into the emotional needs of contemporary middle-class consumers, offering not just products but emotional experiences that provide relief from daily pressures [8][10]. - Mixue Ice City appeals to consumers' desire for value, providing high-quality experiences at a fraction of the cost of premium brands, thus positioning itself as a smart consumption choice [8][10]. - Pop Mart capitalizes on the thrill of uncertainty and nostalgia, allowing consumers to relive childhood joys through collectible toys, which has resonated particularly well with younger audiences [10][11]. Group 4: Philosophical Approach - The success of these companies reflects a unique business philosophy from Henan, emphasizing patience, deep market understanding, and a blend of traditional values with modern practices [12][13]. - The concept of "slow is fast" and "local is trendy" underpins their strategies, focusing on sustainable growth rather than rapid expansion [12][13]. - The integration of social value with business profit is a hallmark of Henan entrepreneurs, as seen in Pang Donglai's employee welfare initiatives and Mixue's support for local suppliers [14][15]. Group 5: Cultural Impact - These companies are not only reshaping the consumer market but also promoting cultural confidence, with Pop Mart and Mixue Ice City successfully exporting Chinese cultural elements globally [15]. - Their stories illustrate that traditional industries can thrive through innovative thinking and emotional resonance, challenging the notion that only high-tech sectors can succeed in today's market [15].