Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the global equity market, particularly the performance and positioning of long-only funds across various sectors, including Semiconductors, Industrials, and Health Care [1][2][24]. Core Insights - **Equity Flow Trends**: Long-only funds globally purchased $27.2 billion in the Semiconductors sector, driven by positive sentiment towards AI, while they sold $42.3 billion in Industrials and $27.1 billion in Health Care [1]. - **Regional Activity**: Funds bought $21.0 billion in Asia Pacific excluding Japan, while selling $56.5 billion in the US [1]. - **Top Stock Movements**: In the US, NVIDIA saw a significant inflow of $16.9 billion, while Apple experienced an outflow of $11.2 billion. In Emerging Markets, TSMC gained $5.9 billion, and MercadoLibre lost $1.4 billion [2]. Crowded Stocks Analysis - **Crowded Positives**: Stocks with high ownership and positive momentum include Meta, Broadcom, Netflix, Visa, Mastercard, and Wells Fargo [3][4]. - **Crowded Negatives**: Stocks with high ownership but negative momentum include Meituan, LVMH, and Pilbara Minerals [3]. - **Under-owned Negatives**: Stocks like BHP, Targa Resources, and Lockheed Martin are under-owned but have potential upside [4]. Fund Ownership and Active Exposure - **Fund Ownership Metrics**: The report indicates that 73% of relevant funds own Stock B, highlighting the importance of fund ownership in investment decisions [28]. - **Active Exposure Analysis**: The analysis includes over 5,647 active long-only funds managing more than $29 trillion in equities, with a focus on their relative weight against benchmarks [18][19]. Performance Metrics - **Back-tested Performance**: Crowded Positive stocks have outperformed the global combined universe by 4.4% since January 2015, while Under-owned Negatives have consistently underperformed [73]. - **Equity Flow Calculation**: The report emphasizes the importance of equity flow in understanding fund behavior, with cumulative long-only equity flow for China stocks reaching $193.0 billion [27]. Methodology and Limitations - **Methodology**: The analysis combines fund ownership, active exposure, and Triple Momentum to identify investment opportunities and risks [36][63]. - **Limitations**: The report notes that the analysis does not include funds that do not declare holdings regularly or those with less than $500 million in AUM, which may skew results [72]. Conclusion - The report provides a comprehensive overview of fund flows, stock positioning, and performance metrics, highlighting significant trends in the equity market and identifying potential investment opportunities and risks across various sectors and regions.

Market Performance - The main board led the gains with notable increases in stocks such as Guoan Co. (+10.07%), Tongfu Microelectronics (+10.01%), and Jianghai Co. (+10.01%) [1] - The ChiNext board saw significant growth with Tongda Sea (+20.01%) and Jiebang Technology (+20.00%) leading the way [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation board was led by Aerospace Hongtu (+17.94%) and Kaipu Cloud (+16.52%) [1] - Active sub-industries included SW Printed Circuit Boards (+3.54%) and SW Integrated Circuit Packaging and Testing (+1.73%) [1] Domestic News - A research team from Peking University and Hong Kong City University proposed a concept for a "Universal Photonic Fusion Wireless Transceiver Engine," successfully developing a chip for high-speed wireless communication with a coverage range exceeding 110 GHz [1] - TSMC is set to begin construction of a new 1.4nm advanced process wafer plant in Taiwan, with an estimated total investment of NT$1.2 trillion to NT$1.5 trillion (approximately $39.2 billion to $49 billion) [1] - GalaxyCore launched a high-performance 5MP image sensor GC5605 designed for AI PC applications, enhancing video quality for scenarios like video conferencing [1] - Tailin Micro announced plans to acquire 100% of Shanghai Panqi Microelectronics to expand its low-power IoT wireless connection platform [1] Company Announcements - Howey Group reported a total revenue of 13.956 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.42%, with a net profit of 2.028 billion yuan, up 48.34% [2] - Dingjie Smart reported total revenue of 1.045 billion yuan for H1 2025, a 4.08% increase, with a net profit of 45 million yuan, up 6.09% [2] - Lingyi Technology reported total revenue of 23.625 billion yuan for H1 2025, a 23.35% increase, with a net profit of 930 million yuan, up 35.94% [2] - Kaisheng Technology reported total revenue of 2.765 billion yuan for H1 2025, a 24.7% increase, with a net profit of 52 million yuan, up 23.7% [2] Overseas News - Dell Technologies reported $5.6 billion in AI server orders for Q2, a significant drop from $12.1 billion in the previous quarter, with AI server shipments totaling $8.2 billion [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the revocation of export exemptions for Intel Semiconductor (Dalian), Samsung China Semiconductor, and SK Hynix Semiconductor (China) [2] - Research from Stanford University indicated a 13% decline in employment rates for workers aged 22 to 25 in AI-affected occupations since 2022, with software development and customer service being the most impacted [2] - Intel announced modifications to its funding agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce, allowing it to access approximately $5.7 billion in cash earlier than planned [2]

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is positioned for significant growth, potentially reaching a $2 trillion market cap due to its critical role in the semiconductor industry and the ongoing demand driven by AI technologies [2][14]. Group 1: Company Overview - TSMC currently has a market cap of $1.2 trillion and is one of only 19 companies worldwide with a market cap exceeding $500 billion [1]. - The company is a key chip fabricator for major tech firms like Apple and Nvidia, which design their chips in-house and rely on TSMC for production [4]. Group 2: Investment and Growth Potential - TSMC's $165 billion investment in its Arizona facility enhances its attractiveness as a partner, with production capacities reportedly sold out through 2027 [5]. - The company is expected to achieve a 45% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in AI-related chip revenue over the next five years starting in 2025, with overall revenue projected to grow nearly 20% [13]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - TSMC is advancing its technology with the introduction of 2nm chips, which are anticipated to consume 25% to 30% less power than 3nm chips, making them ideal for energy-intensive AI workloads [7][8]. - The company is also developing A16 and A14 chips aimed at improving energy consumption [8]. Group 4: Market Position and Valuation - Despite a revenue growth rate of 44% in Q2, TSMC trades at a valuation similar to the broader market, with a forward earnings ratio of 23.9 compared to the S&P 500's 23.7 [10][12]. - TSMC's stock is not currently valued at a premium despite its rapid growth, indicating potential for future appreciation as market recognition increases [10][12].

Core Insights - The AI market is projected to grow to $4.8 trillion by 2033, presenting significant investment opportunities for companies that leverage this technology [1] Company Summaries Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) - TSMC holds a nearly 70% share of the global semiconductor manufacturing industry, serving major clients like Apple, Alphabet, and AMD [4] - The company has achieved an annual revenue and profit growth rate of 18% since its IPO in 1994, maintaining a consistent dividend payout since 2004 with a current yield of 1.2% [5] - TSMC's earnings surged over 60% to $2.47 per ADR in Q2, driven by strong sales of AI chips [6] Amazon - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the largest cloud computing platform, projected to generate annual revenue of nearly $1.2 trillion by 2030 [7] - AWS is a $100 billion business with operating margins exceeding 30%, experiencing a 17% sales increase in Q2 [9] - Amazon's investment in automation, including the deployment of its one millionth robot, is expected to reduce labor costs and enhance profit margins in its e-commerce operations [10] - The combination of growth in cloud computing and e-commerce positions Amazon as a strong investment opportunity [11]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's 2024 Sustainability Report highlights the company's strong employee compensation and benefits, with 84% of employees considering them reasonable, surpassing global high-performance companies and high-tech firms [2][3] Employee Compensation and Benefits - TSMC's total employee compensation and benefits reached NT$357 million, with 84% of employees deeming it reasonable, significantly higher than the global average of 66% and 61% for high-tech companies [2][3] - The company added over 10,000 employees in the past year, bringing the total to 84,512 [2] - TSMC's employee stock purchase plan, initiated in 2022, has over 85% participation, with a 15% subsidy provided by the company [2] - From 2020 to 2024, total employee compensation expenses increased from approximately NT$140.8 billion to NT$301.8 billion, while average per capita compensation rose from NT$2.47 million to NT$3.57 million [2] Financial Performance - TSMC's financial data for 2024 shows record-breaking figures: consolidated revenue of approximately $89.7 billion, net profit of about $36.4 billion, and capital expenditures of around $29.6 billion [4] - R&D investment reached $6.361 billion, accounting for 7.1% of revenue, with a 3.1 times increase in R&D expenses over the past decade [4] - 69% of revenue comes from advanced processes of 7nm and below, an increase of 11 percentage points from the previous year [4][5] Patent Accumulation and Economic Impact - As of 2024, TSMC has been granted over 70,833 patents, reflecting its strong R&D output [5] - TSMC contributes approximately $76 billion to Taiwan's economy and supports around 358,000 jobs [5] - The company serves 522 customers and delivered 12.9 million 12-inch wafer equivalents in the past year [5] Competitive Advantage - TSMC's competitive edge is summarized in a "triple spiral" model: - Capital spiral: High capital expenditures drive capacity and advanced process expansion - R&D spiral: Continuous investment in R&D creates advantages in advanced processes and yield - Talent spiral: Competitive compensation packages attract and retain top talent [5] - This combined effect ensures TSMC's technological leadership and stability amid global geopolitical and industrial fluctuations [5]

台积电2nm产线将全面排除中国设备的消息引发市场担忧，不止大陆半导体设备遭受冲击，台湾半导体业界亦风声鹤唳。 据悉，台积电2nm已逐步替换 中微公司和屹唐股份美国子公司Mattson Technology的设备，这些企业曾参与其先进制程生产。 最近据Digitimes报道，台积电将再次对其供应链进行提前审查，这次的目标涵盖"大联盟"与"小联盟"成员，其中包括众多台湾本地设备与材料供应商。 需要指出的是，随着中国大陆加速半导体自主化，我国台湾厂商在台积电之外获得了大量订单。无论是直接合作、通过本地合作伙伴，还是在中国大陆设 厂，与中国大陆客户合作变得愈加有吸引力，因为来自中国大陆晶圆厂和封测厂的订单往往毛利更高、规模更大。业内人士指出，台积电不仅在排除大陆 供应商、审查台湾厂商的中国大陆营收，还在增加对美欧日设备与材料的依赖。然而，由于台湾厂商本身占比相对较小（主要集中于后段设备），转单至 国外的实际好处有限。 部分供应商进一步指出，台积电订单利润较低，且往往要求提供两年的免费试用。因此，一些企业不愿意为争取台积电订单而亏损。 虽然成为台积电供 应商能提升企业形象、技术认可度与市场声誉，但实际财务收益有限。在必 ...

台积电去年度永续报告书完整版已出炉，其中报告书提及，去年度采购需求带动供应链逾2.4万亿元新 台币产值。 台积电去年度永续报告书提到，台积电善用全球半导体业领导地位，提升在地供应商技术与能力，运用 投入产出模型（Input-output Model）分析采购活动衍生的社会与环境外部性。 台积电去年度永续报告书提到，2024年因采购需求带动供应链创造新台币2.4576万亿元产值，创造46万 个供应链员工就业机会与2928 亿元新台币薪资收入；供应链产生的环境足迹及人权侵害风险亦带来581 亿元新台币潜在社会成本，辅导供应商提升节电、节水及减废绩效则带来16亿元新台币环境效益。 为促进供应链永续运营，台积电通过热点分析找出具显著冲刺的产业类别及地区，纳入采购策略及选商 标准，并通过辅导及设定目标，携手供应商找出制程最佳化及环境足迹最小化机会，同时针对关键原物 料进行盘查评估，截至2024年已累计分析147种原物料，持续发掘改善契机，带动产业永续转型。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Big tech companies are projected to spend $375 billion on AI infrastructure in 2023, increasing to $500 billion in 2024 [1] - The semiconductor sector is the largest expense in building AI data centers, with Nvidia being the primary beneficiary due to its leading GPUs [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Broadcom's stock price has surged over fivefold since the beginning of 2023, with a current market cap of $1.4 trillion [3] - AI revenue for Broadcom grew 46% year-over-year to $4.4 billion, with expectations of reaching $5.1 billion in the current quarter, indicating a growth rate of approximately 60% [5] - AI-related revenue now constitutes about 30% of Broadcom's total sales, with projections for continued growth [5] Group 3: Strategic Developments - Broadcom's acquisition of VMware has been a significant growth driver, with over 87% of customers transitioning to the VMware Cloud Foundation, resulting in double-digit growth in annual recurring revenue [6] Group 4: Valuation and Growth Prospects - Broadcom's stock has a forward P/E ratio of 45, indicating it is considered expensive despite strong growth in AI chip sales and margin improvements from VMware [7] - TSMC, a key player in semiconductor manufacturing, holds over two-thirds market share and is expected to maintain strong revenue growth driven by AI-related demand [9][12] Group 5: Future Outlook - TSMC anticipates AI-related revenue growth averaging mid-40% annually from 2024 to 2029, contributing to an overall revenue growth of about 20% [12] - TSMC's stock trades at a more reasonable earnings multiple of 24, with potential for significant earnings growth, positioning it to exceed a $2 trillion valuation by 2028 [13]

Group 1 - XPeng Motors showcased its AI technology lineup at the Chengdu Auto Show, featuring new models including the XPeng P7, G7, 2025 XPeng X9, MONA M03, and the next-generation humanoid robot IRON, under the theme "AI Changes the World" [2] - The national satellite navigation positioning benchmark station network has expanded to nearly 7,000 stations, providing high-precision measurement and location services, significantly contributing to economic, national defense, social development, and ecological protection [2] - TSMC plans to accelerate its 1.4nm advanced process with a new factory expected to start construction in October, with an investment of approximately NT$1.2 to 1.5 trillion, aiming for mass production by 2028 [2] Group 2 - Global smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 1% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 1.24 billion units, driven by a 3.9% increase in iOS device shipments, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.5% expected from 2024 to 2029 [2] - IDC forecasts that shipments of generative AI smartphones will exceed 370 million units by 2025, accounting for 30% of the overall market, with expectations that this will rise to over 70% by 2029 as consumer awareness and application scenarios expand [3]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is entering a significant expansion phase for its 2nm process technology, driven by strong demand for AI chips, leading to a substantial investment in etching equipment, which is critical for wafer fabrication [4][6]. Group 1: TSMC's 2nm Expansion - TSMC is making unprecedented investments in expanding its 2nm production capacity due to the rising demand for AI chips from international clients [4][6]. - The etching process is a key step in wafer fabrication, with each high-precision etching machine costing around 3 to 4 million USD (over 100 million TWD), and each 2nm facility requiring more than 100 such machines [6][7]. Group 2: Supplier Competition - TSMC employs a multi-supplier strategy to mitigate risks and achieve cost efficiency, with major suppliers including Tokyo Electron (TEL), Lam Research, and Applied Materials [5][6]. - TEL holds a dominant market share in critical equipment like photolithography and furnace systems, but faces stiff competition in the etching equipment sector [5][6]. Group 3: Equipment Supplier Dynamics - The etching equipment market is characterized by a "three-horse race" among TEL, Lam Research, and Applied Materials, with each company focusing on different segments of the etching process [6][7]. - Suppliers are under pressure to enhance their equipment to meet TSMC's production demands, which is crucial for gaining market share in this competitive landscape [6][7]. Group 4: Confidentiality Breach Incident - A recent incident involving TSMC's etching equipment procurement revealed that engineers from TEL attempted to access confidential data to improve their equipment, leading to legal actions against them [7][8]. - The prosecution emphasizes the severity of the breach, as it threatens Taiwan's semiconductor industry's international competitiveness, with significant penalties sought for the involved individuals [7][8].