Core Viewpoint - The rapid proliferation of AI applications is driving demand for advanced packaging technologies in the semiconductor industry, with TSMC's CoWoS becoming a well-known solution. The company is also developing next-generation packaging technologies like CoPoS and CoWoP to enhance area utilization and cooling efficiency [1][10]. Group 1: Advanced Packaging Technologies - CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) integrates multiple chips on a substrate to reduce space and improve performance, particularly for AI chips requiring high bandwidth and low latency [2][6]. - TSMC's CoWoS-L variant has seen a significant increase in demand, accounting for approximately 60% of CoWoS sales, due to its lower cost and ability to integrate passive components [6][9]. - The next-generation packaging technologies, CoPoS and CoWoP, aim to reduce costs and improve efficiency, with CoPoS utilizing a rectangular panel to enhance area utilization [10][11]. Group 2: Market Growth and Projections - The Taiwanese semiconductor packaging industry is projected to reach NT$710.4 billion by 2025, with a CAGR of 13.9%, and further growth to NT$759 billion by 2026, driven by AI and HPC infrastructure demands [1][2]. - TSMC's advanced packaging capacity is expected to grow significantly, with CoWoS capacity increasing by over 80% and SoIC capacity by more than 100% from 2022 to 2026 [2][9]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Developments - The semiconductor industry faces challenges in meeting the increasing demand for advanced packaging, necessitating collaboration and innovation among manufacturers [10]. - TSMC is expanding its advanced packaging facilities in the U.S. and Taiwan, with plans to start testing CoPoS by 2026 and mass production by 2028 [8][9]. - The shift towards advanced packaging is shortening the time from design to mass production, reducing the development cycle from approximately 1.5 years to less than a year [9][10].

Summary of AWS Trainium3 UltraServer Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Technology, specifically focusing on AI Supply Chain and Hardware related to AWS Trainium3 UltraServer Key Points and Arguments 1. **Launch of Trainium3 UltraServer**: AWS introduced the Trainium3 UltraServer at the re:Invent 2025 keynote, highlighting its advanced server system architecture [1][7] 2. **Performance Improvements**: The Trainium3 UltraServers, powered by new Trainium3 chips, offer 3x higher throughput per chip and 4x faster response times compared to the previous generation, Trainium2 [2][7] 3. **Energy Efficiency**: Trainium3 chips provide 40% more energy savings than earlier models, which is significant for large-scale deployments [2][7] 4. **Volume Shipments Timeline**: Volume shipments of Trainium3 server PCBs and racks are expected to begin in Q2 2026 and Q3 2026, respectively [3][7] 5. **Architecture Changes**: The new server architecture integrates multiple Trainium3 chips and a Graviton CPU in a single compute tray, differing from the previous generation's design [4][7] 6. **Future Developments**: AWS is already planning the next-generation Trainium4 chips, which will be built on TSMC's 2nm technology and are expected to be available in late 2027 [5][7] 7. **Key Beneficiaries**: Companies benefiting from the Trainium3 UltraServer include GCE, Wiwynn, Accton, King Slide, AVC, BizLink, and Delta [1][6][7] 8. **Revenue Projections for Wiwynn**: Wiwynn is projected to generate at least NT$300 billion in revenue from Trainium3 based on an estimated production of 1.2 million chips in CY26 [13][7] 9. **Gold Circuit PCB Contribution**: Gold Circuit is expected to maintain a 60% market share for Trainium3 PCBs, with revenue contributions projected between NT$13.5 billion and NT$17.6 billion [16][7] Additional Important Information - **Market Dynamics**: The introduction of Trainium3 is expected to significantly impact the AI hardware supply chain, with various companies positioned to benefit from increased demand for high-performance computing solutions [1][6][7] - **Sensitivity Analysis**: Detailed sensitivity analyses for revenue contributions from both Wiwynn and Gold Circuit highlight the potential financial impact of Trainium3 on these companies [13][16][7] - **Technological Integration**: Trainium4 will support NVIDIA NVLink Fusion technology, indicating a trend towards more integrated and high-performance computing solutions [5][7] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding AWS's advancements in AI hardware and the implications for the associated supply chain.

Core Insights - TSMC's stock price appreciated by 4.37%, aligning with the benchmark, indicating continued upward momentum for the company [1] - The expectation is that TSMC's stock may continue to appreciate in price, driven by macroeconomic trends and investor behavior [1] Company Overview - TSMC is a key player in the semiconductor industry, and its performance is closely monitored by investors [1] - The company is influenced by central bank policies and sector rotation, which are critical factors in the investment landscape [1] Investment Strategy - The analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding macro trends to construct actionable investment strategies [1] - The focus is on long-term investing, encouraging investors to build confidence through shared insights and collaboration [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the technology sector, particularly in AI and compute, with expectations for strong growth into 2026 [4][19]. Core Insights - AI order books remain robust, with companies like Google and Anthropic reporting significant sales growth, indicating a strong demand for AI-related products [4][6]. - Companies are managing memory constraints effectively, with rising prices prompting adjustments in product specifications and pricing strategies [4][6]. - TSMC anticipates a 45% CAGR in AI accelerator revenue from 2024 to 2029, reflecting strong demand from fabless customers and hyperscalers [19]. Summary by Sections AI and Compute - Companies reaffirmed strong AI order books, with Anthropic scaling sales from US$1 billion to US$7 billion over the past year [4]. - NVIDIA expects US$500 billion in sales through 2026, driven by AI demand and partnerships with companies like Anthropic [4][17]. - Anthropic's B2B-first strategy is yielding significant revenue growth, with a focus on enterprise applications [6][7]. Equipment and Packaging - Applied Materials sees leading-edge logic as the strongest driver for growth, with a projected increase in demand for advanced packaging [8]. - Amkor is optimistic about AI growth from a low base, with expectations for recovery in various sectors including automotive and industrial [6][8]. Hardware and Mobile - Dell reported strong demand for AI servers, with a backlog of US$18.4 billion and expectations for continued growth in 2026 [10]. - Qualcomm anticipates a slowdown in premiumization trends but remains optimistic about future upgrades with new technology [4][10]. Power and Infrastructure - Infineon is targeting US$1.5 billion in AI revenue for FY2025, up from US$700 million, indicating a significant growth opportunity in the AI sector [12][13]. - Lightmatter is advancing optical interconnect solutions, which could significantly enhance compute efficiency [15][12]. Market Dynamics - The semiconductor market is expected to see a mid-30% CAGR in leading-edge logic and DRAM/ HBM wafers, driven by AI and data center demand [8]. - TSMC's proactive capex strategy aims to support the anticipated growth in Cloud AI, with investments projected to reach US$50 billion in 2026 [19].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's advanced packaging capacity is fully booked, leading to significant outsourcing opportunities, benefiting companies like ASE Technology Holding and Siliconware Precision Industries [1][2] Group 1: TSMC's Outsourcing and Market Impact - TSMC is experiencing strong demand for its advanced packaging services, particularly in CoWoS and CoWoP technologies, which are critical for high-performance computing [1] - The company has fully booked its advanced process capacities, including 2nm and 3nm technologies, prompting it to accelerate outsourcing of advanced packaging and testing to meet AI customer demands [1] Group 2: ASE Technology Holding and Siliconware Precision Industries - ASE Technology Holding and Siliconware Precision Industries have invested over NT$11.17 billion in the past two months to expand production and acquire equipment in response to TSMC's outsourcing orders [1][2] - ASE Technology Holding anticipates strong performance in its advanced packaging and testing business, projecting annual revenue of $1.6 billion for this year, with expectations to increase by over $1 billion by 2026, reflecting a growth rate of over 60% [2] Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The demand for high-performance computing driven by generative AI is expected to remain strong, with major companies like NVIDIA, AMD, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon AWS, and Google competing for capacity [1] - ASE Technology Holding's new facilities, including the Dulin and Douliu plants, are expected to be operational by next year, further solidifying its position in the semiconductor packaging market [2]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is experiencing a surge in orders for advanced packaging, particularly from major clients like Nvidia, Google, Amazon, and MediaTek, leading to full capacity utilization of its CoWoS series [1][2] Group 1: Advanced Packaging Demand - TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging orders are reportedly overflowing, with both CoWoS-L and CoWoS-S processes fully loaded [1] - The demand for advanced packaging is expected to remain high, with TSMC aiming to expand CoWoS-L capacity to 100,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026, driven by orders from Nvidia's GPUs and custom ASICs [1][2] Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Partnerships - TSMC is actively expanding its CoWoS capacity and collaborating with partners to meet customer demands, with plans to achieve supply-demand balance by 2025-2026 [2] - The company is outsourcing some of its advanced packaging processes to partners to ensure seamless integration of technologies and timely fulfillment of customer needs [1] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Despite rumors of major clients like Apple and Qualcomm considering Intel's advanced packaging as a backup option, industry insights suggest that TSMC's deep partnerships and comprehensive service offerings will limit the flow of orders to Intel [2]

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is positioned to benefit significantly from the ongoing AI infrastructure investments, potentially leading to a breakout similar to Nvidia's by 2026 [5][18]. Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry has been a key player in the rise of generative AI applications, with companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom being prominent names [2][3]. - There is a growing interest among investors to explore opportunities beyond the traditional chip manufacturers as hyperscalers increase their investments in AI infrastructure [2][3]. Company Analysis: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - TSMC holds approximately 68% market share in the global chip foundry market, making it the largest by revenue [6]. - The company's diverse customer base allows it to benefit from the overall increase in chip demand, positioning it as a "pick-and-shovel" opportunity in the semiconductor sector [7]. - Analysts predict that AI capital expenditures among hyperscalers could reach nearly $500 billion next year, with the potential for multi-year opportunities worth several trillion dollars [9][10]. Future Outlook - The year 2026 is anticipated to mark the beginning of a significant AI infrastructure era, with increasing demand for chips expected to drive TSMC's revenue and profit growth [13]. - Recent large-scale deals indicate sustained demand for GPUs, suggesting that TSMC will play a crucial role in fulfilling these needs [11][12]. - TSMC's expansion efforts in regions like Arizona, Germany, and Japan have helped mitigate geopolitical risks associated with tensions between China and Taiwan [16]. Investment Consideration - Despite a premium valuation compared to earlier lows, TSMC's stock remains an attractive long-term investment due to the early-stage nature of the AI infrastructure opportunity [14][17]. - The ongoing deal flow and TSMC's critical role in the AI landscape suggest a potential for prolonged share price increases as the market recognizes its influence [17].

Core Insights - The article provides a contrasting view of the analyst's portfolio, highlighting a diverse range of stocks that the analyst is interested in [1]. Group 1 - The analyst expresses a beneficial long position in shares of NVDA and AVGO, indicating confidence in these stocks [2]. - The article emphasizes that the analysis is for informational purposes and encourages investors to conduct their own research before making investment decisions [3]. - It is noted that past performance does not guarantee future results, and no specific investment recommendations are provided [4].

Core Insights - Nvidia's dominance in the AI computing unit market is facing increasing competition, prompting investors to focus on market trends for 2026 rather than the end of 2025 [1] Company Summaries Alphabet - Alphabet has been developing its custom AI accelerator unit in collaboration with Broadcom, previously using its Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) mainly for internal purposes [4] - The potential sale of TPUs to Meta Platforms could create a new revenue stream for Alphabet, which could significantly impact its finances if it generates an additional $10 billion in revenue per quarter [5][7] - Alphabet's recent quarter showed a revenue growth of 16% and diluted EPS growth of 35%, indicating that it does not solely rely on TPU sales for success [7] Broadcom - Broadcom is positioned as a key partner for companies looking to design custom AI hardware, with the potential to outperform Nvidia's GPUs at a lower price point [9] - Broadcom has multiple clients, including OpenAI, and has received a mysterious $10 billion order for custom AI chips, indicating strong demand for its services [11][12] - The company is expected to gain market share in the AI hardware space, making it an attractive investment heading into 2026 [12] Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing - Taiwan Semiconductor is the leading chip fabricator and supplies chips to all major players in the AI market, benefiting from increased spending in the sector [13] - With projections of global data center capital expenditures reaching $3 trillion to $4 trillion annually by 2030, Taiwan Semiconductor is well-positioned for growth as AI spending increases [15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The NAND Flash wafer contract prices have significantly increased, driven by strong demand from AI applications and enterprise-level SSD orders. The average monthly price increase for various products reached 20%-60% in November [2][3] - Micron Technology announced plans to gradually shut down its Crucial consumer storage business by the end of February 2026, reallocating capacity and investment towards enterprise-level DRAM and SSD products to meet the growing demand in the AI sector [2][3] - ByteDance has launched the Doubao mobile assistant, marking a significant step towards the realization of AI-integrated smartphones. This assistant can perform tasks across various scenarios, potentially leading to a new wave of AI smartphone releases from other manufacturers [2][3] Market Performance Summary - The performance of the electronic sub-sectors has varied, with the following year-to-date changes: Semiconductors (+40.98%), Other Electronics II (+42.02%), Components (+88.55%), Optical Electronics (+10.22%), Consumer Electronics (+44.83%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+38.67%). Weekly changes include: Semiconductors (+0.88%), Other Electronics II (-1.34%), Components (-0.67%), Optical Electronics (+4.42%), Consumer Electronics (+1.61%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+0.34%) [2][9] - In North America, key stocks showed mixed performance, with notable changes including Tesla (+5.77%), Qualcomm (+4.00%), and Micron Technology (+0.31%) [2][10] Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include: For overseas AI - Industrial Fulian, Huadian Co., Pengding Holdings, Shenghong Technology, and Shengyi Technology; For domestic AI - Cambricon, Chipone, Haiguang Information, SMIC, and Shenzhen South Circuit; For storage - Demingli, Jiangbolong, Zhaoyi Innovation, Jucheng Co., and Purun Co.; For SoC - Rockchip, Lexin Technology, Hengxuan Technology, Amlogic, and Zhongke Lanyun [3]