相较于辉达第一季69% 的营收暴增，台积电第二季成长幅度略显保守，不过在高阶芯片制造领域， 台积电依然占据无可动摇的领先地位。 业界普遍认为，未来数年内难有竞争对手能撼动其地位。英特尔（Intel）持续努力吸引AI 业者采用 其制造设施，但成效有限。 公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来源：内容来自 巴伦周刊 。 《巴隆周刊》报导，辉达是当今人工智能(AI) 芯片的超级巨星，不过全球晶圆代工龙头台积电有望 成为比辉达更大的AI 芯片赢家。 根据台积电周四(10 日) 公布的最新月度报告，第二季营收达新9338 亿新台币(约319.3 亿美元)，优 于市场预期的9240.5 亿新台币，年增幅高达39%，虽略低于第一季42% 的年增，但仍展现强劲动 能。 台积电并未揭露各产品线营收细节，预计将于7 月17 日的法说会中进一步说明。 不过报导指出，市场普遍认为，推升营收的主力来源正是来自AI 芯片的订单，尤其来自主要客户辉 达( NVDA-US ) 的需求。辉达近期市值突破4 兆美元，成为市场焦点，其高效能运算需求亦同步带 动台积电产能满载。 尽管台积电ADR 周四小幅回落0.90%，市场认为这可能与 ...

Group 1: Trade and Tariffs - The US announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods starting August 1, prompting Brazilian President Lula to seek negotiations with the US and consider retaliatory measures if negotiations fail [1] - Lula emphasized that Brazil can survive without trading in US dollars and suggested that Trump should address tariff issues at the G20 [1] - The US Treasury Secretary hinted at the need for patience in trade discussions, comparing Trump's temperament to that of George Soros [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Major US stock indices reached new highs, with the Nasdaq up 0.09%, S&P 500 up 0.27%, and Dow Jones up 0.43% [1][3] - Nvidia's stock rose 47% since the announcement of tariffs, reflecting strong performance in the tech sector [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 0.90%, with Alibaba rising over 2% and Netease dropping over 2% [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5 were reported at 227,000, lower than the expected 235,000 [14] - The US Treasury yields showed slight changes, with the 10-year yield at 4.351% [5] - The dollar index increased by 0.10%, indicating a slight strengthening of the US dollar [5] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Tesla's stock rose by 4.73%, while AMD increased by 4.15% [2] - TSMC reported a 26.9% year-on-year increase in sales for June, with total sales for the first half of the year up 40% [11] - BYD announced its advanced parking assistance technology, claiming it can achieve L4-level autonomous parking [12]

Group 1 - The Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) has revised its forecast for semiconductor equipment sales in Japan for the fiscal year 2025, increasing it to 4.8634 trillion yen, marking a historical high [1] - For the fiscal year 2024, sales are expected to increase by 29.0% year-on-year to 4.7681 trillion yen, the first time surpassing the 4 trillion yen mark [1] - The growth is driven by strong demand for AI server GPUs and HBM, along with increased investments in 2nm technology by Taiwan's TSMC and South Korea's DRAM/HBM sectors [1] Group 2 - For the fiscal year 2026, SEAJ has raised its forecast for semiconductor equipment sales to 5.3498 trillion yen, a 10.0% year-on-year increase, and the first time exceeding 5 trillion yen [2] - The anticipated growth is attributed to increased investments in 2nm technology outside Taiwan and a rising trend in investments for AI server HBM and NAND Flash products [2] - For the fiscal year 2027, sales are projected to grow by 3.0% year-on-year to 5.5103 trillion yen, potentially marking the fourth consecutive year of record sales [2] Group 3 - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Japan's semiconductor equipment sales from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 4.9% [2] - Japan's semiconductor equipment market share globally is approximately 30%, ranking second after the United States [2]

Financial Performance - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) achieved a first-half revenue surge of 40% [1] Industry Trend - The revenue surge is attributed to booming AI demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's EDA alliance membership has decreased from 16 to 13 members, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape of the EDA industry, with the inclusion of domestic player Primarius and the exclusion of Empyrean [1][2]. Group 1 - TSMC's latest EDA alliance member list shows a reduction in members from 16 in 2024 to 13 in 2025, with major players Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens EDA remaining dominant [1]. - Four companies, including Primarius, have made their debut in the alliance, while seven companies from the previous year, including Empyrean, are no longer listed [1][3]. - Primarius is recognized as the first domestic EDA listed company with competitive core technologies in the international market, focusing on comprehensive EDA solutions for integrated circuit design and manufacturing [3]. Group 2 - The inclusion of Primarius in the EDA alliance signifies a deeper collaboration with TSMC and represents a breakthrough for domestic EDA firms in adapting to international advanced processes [4].

TSMC and AI Growth - TSMC's overall revenue grew 40% in the first half of the year, driven by AI [2] - AI is currently about low teens percentage of TSMC's revenue and is expected to exceed 20% in the next two years [5] - Strong demand remains for AI chips, suggesting potential upward revisions to numbers [5][6] Smartphone Market and TSMC's Revenue - The smartphone ramp-up in the second half, particularly in the third quarter (3Q), is crucial for TSMC's revenue, as it's the holiday quarter preparation period [3] - There's a lack of growth in sectors outside of AI, such as autos or smartphones [3] - Potential pull-forward of smartphone ramp-up in the first half due to tariff situations [4] NVIDIA and AI Chip Demand - NVIDIA's performance, including crossing the $4 trillion mark, has implications for TSMC due to the strong link between the companies and AI chip demand [4] - The shift for SC Fab is moving towards what NVIDIA is selling, specifically AI chips [5] - TSMC has guided for 25% growth for the full year, but with 40% growth in the first half, a second-half deceleration is implied, which could impact NVIDIA [6] AI Talent War and Implications - There's a talent war in the AI industry, with significant pay packages being handed out [9] - Approximately 100 to 200 researchers are driving the innovation in large language models [10] - Open AI faces the risk of slowing down product launches due to the loss of key researchers [10] Grok and Voice AI in Tesla - X (formerly Twitter) unveiled Grok, with plans to integrate the chatbot into Teslas [7] - There's a potential use case for voice AI in Tesla cars, but concerns remain about the large language model's tendency to hallucinate [8] - The safety of using a chatbot in a car is questioned, with voice assistance being a more viable option [9]

Company Overview - Proactive is a financial news publisher that provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The company has a team of experienced and qualified news journalists who produce independent content [2] Market Focus - Proactive specializes in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - The content includes insights across various sectors such as biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging digital and EV technologies [3] Technology Adoption - Proactive is recognized for its forward-looking approach and enthusiastic adoption of technology to enhance workflows [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring that all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Core Insights - TSMC reported June revenue of NT$263.71 billion, a decrease of 17.7% month-over-month but an increase of 26.9% year-over-year [1] - For the first half of the year, TSMC's revenue reached NT$1,773.046 billion, a 40.0% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - Q2 revenue was NT$933.796 billion (approximately US$31.95 billion), up 38.6% year-over-year, exceeding company guidance and market expectations [1] - Analysts had predicted Q2 revenue of NT$927.831 billion, while JPMorgan expected US$29.95 billion, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 17% [1] - Strong demand for 3nm and 5nm processes, along with urgent orders for older process nodes, contributed to the revenue growth despite significant appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar [1] - TSMC's gross margin for Q2 is expected to remain at 57.9% [1] Company Outlook - TSMC's CEO, C.C. Wei, indicated that while U.S. tariffs have had some impact, demand for AI remains strong and continues to exceed supply [2] - The company forecasts a mid-teens percentage growth in revenue for 2025 [1][2] - TSMC expects full-year revenue growth in USD to be close to the mid-20% range (24%-26%) [2] - The company plans to hold an earnings call on July 17, focusing on order outlook for the second half, capital expenditure plans for 2026, and progress on 2nm process technology [2] - TSMC benefits from the AI boom as the largest chip foundry, producing high-end processors for companies like NVIDIA and AMD [2] - The company announced plans to invest an additional US$100 billion in the U.S., following a previous commitment of US$65 billion for three factories [2]

Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant recovery, driven by optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), particularly generative AI, which has increased demand for microchips [1] - The robust demand across various sectors has resulted in substantial revenue growth for chipmakers, contributing significantly to overall market performance and last year's market rally [2] Sales Performance - Worldwide semiconductor sales rose 3.5% sequentially in May, increasing from $57 billion in April to $59 billion, with a year-over-year surge of 19.8%, marking the 11th consecutive month of growth above 17% [4] - SIA President and CEO John Neuffer noted that global semiconductor demand remains high, with first-quarter sales surpassing the previous year's figures, particularly driven by a 45% year-over-year increase in the Americas [5] Future Outlook - The semiconductor market is projected to continue expanding at a double-digit pace into 2025, supported by strong demand for data center chips and memory products [7] - Global semiconductor revenues reached $627.6 billion in 2024, up 19.1% from $526.8 billion in 2023, with the first quarter of 2025 generating $167.7 billion, an 18.8% increase from the previous year [6] Investment Opportunities - Recommended semiconductor stocks include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. (AEIS), and RF Industries, Ltd. (RFIL), all of which have strong earnings growth potential and favorable Zacks rankings [3] - TSM's expected earnings growth rate for the current year is 34.1%, with a 19.8% year-over-year sales increase in May [9] - AEIS is expected to see a 39.1% earnings growth rate, while RFIL's earnings growth rate is projected to exceed 100% [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC has issued a cash dividend of 4.5 New Taiwan Dollars per share, totaling approximately 116.7 billion New Taiwan Dollars, coinciding with the 94th birthday of its founder Morris Chang [2] Group 1: Dividend Distribution - TSMC's cash dividend distribution marks the second time since switching to quarterly dividends that it has not completed the fill on the ex-dividend date [2] - The next expected dividend per share is projected to increase to 5 New Taiwan Dollars [2] Group 2: Shareholder Benefits - Morris Chang, if he retains his 125 million shares, would receive approximately 562.5 million New Taiwan Dollars in dividends, equivalent to about 138 million RMB [2] - TSMC's current chairman and president, C.C. Wei, holds about 6.82 million shares, which would yield approximately 30.71 million New Taiwan Dollars (around 7.56 million RMB) in dividends [2] - Former chairman Liu Deyin is expected to receive about 58.09 million New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 14.29 million RMB) upon his retirement in June 2024, based on his 12.91 million shares [2] Group 3: Other Executives' Dividends - TSMC veteran and current director, Dr. Cheng, holds 29.47 million shares, resulting in a dividend income of about 130 million New Taiwan Dollars (around 31.98 million RMB) [3] - Executive Vice President and Co-COO, Qin Yongpei, with 5.04 million shares, is set to receive approximately 22.70 million New Taiwan Dollars (about 558.5 thousand RMB) [3] - Recently retired R&D Vice President Yu Zhenhua holds 330 shares, expected to yield nearly 1.5 million New Taiwan Dollars (around 369 thousand RMB) [3]