智通财经6月4日电，香港交易所信息显示，瑞银集团（UBS)在东风汽车股份的持股比例于05月29日从 4.63%升至5.02%，平均股价为4.4840港元。 ...

Group 1 - Miniso has reportedly hired JPMorgan and UBS to assist its subsidiary TOP TOY in an IPO in Hong Kong [1]

Group 1 - Miniso has reportedly hired JPMorgan and UBS to assist with the IPO of its subsidiary TOP TOY in Hong Kong [1]

美债收益率若升至5%，美股是否必然承压？ 据追风交易台消息，瑞银（UBS）最新报告指出，关键不在于美债收益率本身，而在于它如何上涨。"收益率上行的路径"是由经济增长驱动还是 由风险溢价（term premium）推动，其对股市的影响截然不同。 报告强调，若由经济增长和企业盈利预期改善推动，标普500有望上行至6200点；若由风险溢价上升（如财政赤字、政策不确定性）驱动，则对美 股尤其是防御板块构成压力。 收益率的变动路径比最终数值更重要 如果谈论美国债券收益率升至5%或更高，那么达到目标的过程将至关重要。 瑞银报告称，10年期美债收益率是全球无风险利率的重要锚，也是股市现金流折现的核心参数。当这一利率上升时，未来现金流的现值下降，从 而对股票估值构成压力。然而，市场并非静态调整，收益率的变化通常与其他变量同步发生，例如企业盈利预期、风险溢价和宏观经济环境。 "收益率从来不是孤岛"，瑞银策略师团队强调。10年期美债收益率的变动通常与股票估值的两大核心要素——风险溢价和盈利预期——同步波 动。真正决定股市走向的，是推动收益率上行的主导因素。 | Factors of investment returns | Ma ...

Group 1 - Hedge funds have rapidly increased their purchases of global stocks at the fastest pace in nearly six months, indicating a greater willingness to take on specific risks [1][3][5] - The S&P 500 index saw a cumulative increase of over 6% in May, marking its largest monthly gain since November 2023 and the best performance for May since 1990 [4][8] - The technology sector has attracted significant attention from hedge funds, with North American tech companies being the most favored, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing and technology hardware [5][6] Group 2 - Major Wall Street institutions have revised their outlook for the U.S. stock market, with Deutsche Bank raising its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6150 to 6550 points, citing reduced profit drag from tariff policies [8][9] - Other institutions, including RBC Capital Markets and UBS, have also increased their S&P 500 targets, reflecting renewed confidence in the market [9] - The U.S. Treasury market has shown signs of stabilization, with a 2 percentage point increase in the proportion of bullish positions among investors, reaching the highest level in two weeks [10] Group 3 - The OECD has downgraded its U.S. economic growth forecast for this year to 1.6%, a reduction of 0.6 percentage points from its previous estimate, while also raising inflation expectations to 3.2% [11]

Economic Indicators - UBS has identified that recession risks in the United States are increasing, with three main indicators showing concerning trends: real-world data, credit conditions, and the yield curve [1][2] - The probability of a US recession based on real-world data has risen to 46%, an increase of 12 percentage points in just one month, indicating broad-based weakness in key economic areas [4][3] - The yield curve currently suggests an 18% probability of recession, which, while lower than previous extremes, still represents a notable increase [5] Credit Conditions - UBS's credit-based model indicates a 48% probability of recession, marking the highest level since the pandemic, reflecting shifts in financial ratios and lending conditions [6] Composite Recession Risk - The composite gauge from UBS places the overall US recession risk at 37%, up from 26% in December, approaching levels historically associated with actual downturns [7] - Despite these indicators, UBS does not currently predict a recession, noting that the economy began the year on stable footing, but warns that further data deterioration could reignite recession discussions [7] Global Implications - The US consumer remains a critical driver of global demand, and any retrenchment in consumer spending or business investment could negatively impact the developed world [9] - The situation is being closely monitored, with upcoming data in May and June expected to influence market narratives significantly [10]

香港交易所信息显示， 瑞银集团（UBS)在 美的集团的持股比例于05月28日从5.05%降至4.95%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar is primarily a result of market trading and uncertainty, leading investors to reduce their overweight positions in US assets [1][3] Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Market Reactions - The dollar index has fallen below 100, with Asian currencies appreciating significantly [1] - The so-called "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" has been cited as a catalyst for the weak dollar, suggesting that the dollar has been overvalued due to its status as the world's primary reserve currency [1][3] - UBS's chief economist, Arend Kapteyn, emphasizes that the dollar's weakness is not a deliberate policy but a byproduct of market uncertainty [3] Group 2: US Debt Concerns - Concerns regarding US debt remain, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields nearing 4.5% and 5% respectively [4] - The rise in Treasury yields is attributed to high government financing needs and market worries about increasing debt supply [4][5] - Despite rising yields, foreign investors have not reduced their holdings, while local investors are decreasing their positions [5] Group 3: Tax Policy and Fiscal Impact - The new tax policy proposed by Trump is not expected to significantly increase the fiscal deficit, as it is characterized as a "illusionary expansion" rather than a true tax cut [8] - The tax plan aims to extend personal tax cuts and increase standard deductions, while also including significant spending cuts [8] - The plan is projected to reduce taxes by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, but it also includes substantial cuts to programs like Medicaid [8] Group 4: Trade Negotiation Challenges - Ongoing trade negotiations between the US and EU are critical, with both sides facing significant misalignment in their demands [9] - The US aims to increase tariff revenues, which reached a record high in April, while the EU seeks to lower tariffs to zero [9][10] - The potential for increased tariffs could lead to higher inflation, with estimates suggesting core PCE inflation could rise to 3.5% under current tariff structures [10]

ab 27 May 2025 Global Research Global Oil Fundamentals Expert call feedback: OPEC+ meetings preview Expert call on OPEC+ ahead of next meeting this Saturday We hosted an expert call with Ben Cahill, Director, Energy Markets and Policy at the University of Texas at Austin's Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis, on the upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting tomorrow and the meeting of the 8 OPEC + members carrying out the voluntary cuts on Saturday. We also discussed the broader oil market outlook ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Hong Kong Economic Outlook - **Key Focus**: Economic growth projections, trade dynamics, financial sector performance, and tourism recovery Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Upward GDP Revision**: The GDP growth projection for 2025 has been revised up to 2.2% from a prior projection of 1.0%, surpassing the current market consensus of 2.0% [1][4] 2. **Strong 1Q Growth**: Hong Kong's GDP growth accelerated to 3.1% year-on-year in 1Q25, compared to 2.5% in 4Q24, marking the fastest sequential expansion since 1Q23 [2][4] 3. **Investment Growth**: Key supporting factors for the strong 1Q growth include improvements in investment growth and net service export growth, particularly in machinery, computer, and software investments [2][11] 4. **Financial Sector Momentum**: Despite the April tariff shock, financial sector activity has shown significant improvement, which is expected to support overall growth into 2Q25 [3][21] 5. **Tourism Recovery**: The May Golden Week holiday saw the highest daily visitor arrivals since the COVID shock, with nearly 20% growth in visitor arrivals, indicating a recovery in tourism [3][23][26] 6. **Tariff Risks**: Despite the positive outlook, growth is projected to moderate due to elevated trade tariff uncertainties, with significant risks tied to US-China trade talks [4][40] Additional Important Insights 1. **Interbank Rates**: The 3-month HIBOR fell to 1.37% as of May 26, down from 3.99% at the end of April, which is seen as positive for the economy, particularly for interest-sensitive sectors [6][40] 2. **Domestic Consumption**: Outbound consumption has shown signs of slowing, while inbound consumption is picking up, suggesting potential for domestic sector recovery if visitor numbers continue to rise [3][19][28] 3. **Investment Trends**: There is a noted stabilization and uptick in investment in machinery and equipment, which is crucial for supporting economic growth [13][11] 4. **Economic Indicators**: The report includes a summary of macro indicators, showing a projected real GDP growth of 2.2% for 2025, with private consumption expected to grow by 2.0% [8][4] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the economic outlook for Hong Kong, highlighting both opportunities and risks in the current environment.