Group 1 - Hedge funds have rapidly increased their purchases of global stocks at the fastest pace in nearly six months, indicating a greater willingness to take on specific risks [1][3][5] - The S&P 500 index saw a cumulative increase of over 6% in May, marking its largest monthly gain since November 2023 and the best performance for May since 1990 [4][8] - The technology sector has attracted significant attention from hedge funds, with North American tech companies being the most favored, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing and technology hardware [5][6] Group 2 - Major Wall Street institutions have revised their outlook for the U.S. stock market, with Deutsche Bank raising its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6150 to 6550 points, citing reduced profit drag from tariff policies [8][9] - Other institutions, including RBC Capital Markets and UBS, have also increased their S&P 500 targets, reflecting renewed confidence in the market [9] - The U.S. Treasury market has shown signs of stabilization, with a 2 percentage point increase in the proportion of bullish positions among investors, reaching the highest level in two weeks [10] Group 3 - The OECD has downgraded its U.S. economic growth forecast for this year to 1.6%, a reduction of 0.6 percentage points from its previous estimate, while also raising inflation expectations to 3.2% [11]

Economic Indicators - UBS has identified that recession risks in the United States are increasing, with three main indicators showing concerning trends: real-world data, credit conditions, and the yield curve [1][2] - The probability of a US recession based on real-world data has risen to 46%, an increase of 12 percentage points in just one month, indicating broad-based weakness in key economic areas [4][3] - The yield curve currently suggests an 18% probability of recession, which, while lower than previous extremes, still represents a notable increase [5] Credit Conditions - UBS's credit-based model indicates a 48% probability of recession, marking the highest level since the pandemic, reflecting shifts in financial ratios and lending conditions [6] Composite Recession Risk - The composite gauge from UBS places the overall US recession risk at 37%, up from 26% in December, approaching levels historically associated with actual downturns [7] - Despite these indicators, UBS does not currently predict a recession, noting that the economy began the year on stable footing, but warns that further data deterioration could reignite recession discussions [7] Global Implications - The US consumer remains a critical driver of global demand, and any retrenchment in consumer spending or business investment could negatively impact the developed world [9] - The situation is being closely monitored, with upcoming data in May and June expected to influence market narratives significantly [10]

香港交易所信息显示， 瑞银集团（UBS)在 美的集团的持股比例于05月28日从5.05%降至4.95%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar is primarily a result of market trading and uncertainty, leading investors to reduce their overweight positions in US assets [1][3] Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Market Reactions - The dollar index has fallen below 100, with Asian currencies appreciating significantly [1] - The so-called "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" has been cited as a catalyst for the weak dollar, suggesting that the dollar has been overvalued due to its status as the world's primary reserve currency [1][3] - UBS's chief economist, Arend Kapteyn, emphasizes that the dollar's weakness is not a deliberate policy but a byproduct of market uncertainty [3] Group 2: US Debt Concerns - Concerns regarding US debt remain, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields nearing 4.5% and 5% respectively [4] - The rise in Treasury yields is attributed to high government financing needs and market worries about increasing debt supply [4][5] - Despite rising yields, foreign investors have not reduced their holdings, while local investors are decreasing their positions [5] Group 3: Tax Policy and Fiscal Impact - The new tax policy proposed by Trump is not expected to significantly increase the fiscal deficit, as it is characterized as a "illusionary expansion" rather than a true tax cut [8] - The tax plan aims to extend personal tax cuts and increase standard deductions, while also including significant spending cuts [8] - The plan is projected to reduce taxes by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, but it also includes substantial cuts to programs like Medicaid [8] Group 4: Trade Negotiation Challenges - Ongoing trade negotiations between the US and EU are critical, with both sides facing significant misalignment in their demands [9] - The US aims to increase tariff revenues, which reached a record high in April, while the EU seeks to lower tariffs to zero [9][10] - The potential for increased tariffs could lead to higher inflation, with estimates suggesting core PCE inflation could rise to 3.5% under current tariff structures [10]

ab 27 May 2025 Global Research Global Oil Fundamentals Expert call feedback: OPEC+ meetings preview Expert call on OPEC+ ahead of next meeting this Saturday We hosted an expert call with Ben Cahill, Director, Energy Markets and Policy at the University of Texas at Austin's Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis, on the upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting tomorrow and the meeting of the 8 OPEC + members carrying out the voluntary cuts on Saturday. We also discussed the broader oil market outlook ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Hong Kong Economic Outlook - **Key Focus**: Economic growth projections, trade dynamics, financial sector performance, and tourism recovery Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Upward GDP Revision**: The GDP growth projection for 2025 has been revised up to 2.2% from a prior projection of 1.0%, surpassing the current market consensus of 2.0% [1][4] 2. **Strong 1Q Growth**: Hong Kong's GDP growth accelerated to 3.1% year-on-year in 1Q25, compared to 2.5% in 4Q24, marking the fastest sequential expansion since 1Q23 [2][4] 3. **Investment Growth**: Key supporting factors for the strong 1Q growth include improvements in investment growth and net service export growth, particularly in machinery, computer, and software investments [2][11] 4. **Financial Sector Momentum**: Despite the April tariff shock, financial sector activity has shown significant improvement, which is expected to support overall growth into 2Q25 [3][21] 5. **Tourism Recovery**: The May Golden Week holiday saw the highest daily visitor arrivals since the COVID shock, with nearly 20% growth in visitor arrivals, indicating a recovery in tourism [3][23][26] 6. **Tariff Risks**: Despite the positive outlook, growth is projected to moderate due to elevated trade tariff uncertainties, with significant risks tied to US-China trade talks [4][40] Additional Important Insights 1. **Interbank Rates**: The 3-month HIBOR fell to 1.37% as of May 26, down from 3.99% at the end of April, which is seen as positive for the economy, particularly for interest-sensitive sectors [6][40] 2. **Domestic Consumption**: Outbound consumption has shown signs of slowing, while inbound consumption is picking up, suggesting potential for domestic sector recovery if visitor numbers continue to rise [3][19][28] 3. **Investment Trends**: There is a noted stabilization and uptick in investment in machinery and equipment, which is crucial for supporting economic growth [13][11] 4. **Economic Indicators**: The report includes a summary of macro indicators, showing a projected real GDP growth of 2.2% for 2025, with private consumption expected to grow by 2.0% [8][4] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the economic outlook for Hong Kong, highlighting both opportunities and risks in the current environment.

"另外我们看好澳币，也看好新加坡等亚太区的货币，"吕子杰补充道，"而中国市场更是不可忽视的投 资标的。" （原标题：瑞银吕子杰，最新发声！） 【导读】瑞银吕子杰：中国是必须参与的重要市场 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 5月28日，第28届瑞银亚洲投资论坛在香港举办。该论坛不仅吸引了大量机构投资者参与，同时受到了 不少企业领袖、行业专家及家族办公室（以下简称家办）核心成员的高度关注。 瑞银财富管理中国区主管吕子杰在接受记者采访时透露，瑞银在前一天举办的全球家族办公室峰会，吸 引了超400位家办负责人亲临现场。与会者最关心的问题是在当前地缘政治复杂多变及全球经济较为波 动的背景下，如何让企业行稳致远，如何通过优化资产配置避免财富的大幅波动。 瑞银财富管理中国区主管吕子杰 分散投资成为主流趋势 被问及近期全球家办是否在减少美元资产时，吕子杰透露，有一些家办确实有类似想法。她认为，近期 资金从美元资产转向非美资产的趋势在短期内有可能持续，但分散投资已成为主流趋势。 吕子杰指出，黄金就是一个不错的分散投资的标的。近年来无论是主权基金还是家办，都在积极配置黄 金。早在金价在1700美元/盎司时，瑞银就建议客户买入黄金。瑞银不仅 ...

Core Insights - UBS Group AG's subsidiary, UBS Asset Management, has reached a definitive agreement to sell its hedge fund, private credit, and commodities business, O'Connor, to Cantor Fitzgerald as part of its strategy to streamline operations [1][5] - The transaction involves approximately $11 billion in assets under management and is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approvals [2][5] - UBS will maintain a long-term commercial arrangement with Cantor Fitzgerald to ensure continuity for UBS Global Wealth Management clients [3] Company Strategy - The divestiture aligns with UBS's broader strategy of focusing on core operations following the acquisition of Credit Suisse in 2023, aiming to reduce non-core and legacy risk-weighted assets to below $8 billion by the end of 2025 [5] - UBS has also formed a strategic partnership with 360 ONE WAM Ltd, acquiring a 4.95% share while selling its onshore Indian wealth business [6] Financial Performance - UBS aims to achieve $13 billion in gross cost savings by the end of 2026 through its restructuring efforts [7] - Despite these efforts, UBS shares have decreased by 2.4% over the past six months, contrasting with the industry's growth of 21.7% [8]

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for UBS (UBS) . Shares have added about 5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is UBS due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, estimat ...

Group 1 - UBS Group announced the sale of its hedge fund, private credit, and commodities business O'Connor to Cantor Fitzgerald, which will significantly enhance Cantor Fitzgerald's asset management business by adding $11 billion in managed assets [1] - The transaction is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter, pending regulatory approval and fulfillment of closing conditions [1] - UBS stated that the sale will result in a non-material gain and is part of its strategy to streamline operations following the acquisition of Credit Suisse in 2023, amid stricter capital requirements in Switzerland [1] Group 2 - Cantor Fitzgerald emphasized its unique advantage in developing the O'Connor business due to its understanding and experience, focusing on attracting and retaining investment talent and providing attractive risk-adjusted returns [2] - Post-acquisition, O'Connor's investment and support teams will be integrated into Cantor Fitzgerald as an independent alternative investment business within its asset management division, while continuing to serve UBS's global wealth management clients [2] - The acquisition is seen as transformative for Cantor Fitzgerald's asset management business, reflecting its commitment to investing in high-growth businesses [2]