The Swiss Senate has turned down a proposal that would have mandated parliamentary review of all new capital regulations for UBS, Reuters has reported. This outcome allows the government to directly move ahead with measures that could potentially raise UBS's core capital requirements by around $9bn. In June, the government outlined a strategy aimed at minimising the bank's risk exposure, which included a directive that UBS would no longer be permitted to include software and deferred tax assets in its co ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, increased demand for safe-haven assets, and supply-demand imbalances, with forecasts for gold prices potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce sooner than previously anticipated [1][2][3] Gold Market Analysis - As of September 16, COMEX gold futures reached a record high of $3,731.9 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of over 6% in September, surpassing the 5% increase in August [1] - Morgan Stanley has set a year-end target price for gold at $3,800 per ounce, emphasizing the strong inverse correlation between gold and the US dollar [2] - UBS predicts gold prices will rise to $3,700 per ounce by June 2026, with a possibility of reaching $4,000 per ounce amid geopolitical or economic risks [2] - JPMorgan has revised its gold price forecast to an average of $3,800 per ounce in Q4 2023, with expectations of surpassing $4,000 per ounce in Q1 2026, driven by increased investor demand [2] Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices are also on the rise, with COMEX silver futures increasing by 41% year-to-date, outperforming gold's 35% increase [4] - The Shanghai silver futures market has entered a new phase, surpassing 10,000 yuan per kilogram [4] - The silver market is more volatile due to its smaller size compared to gold, making it susceptible to rapid price changes [4][5] - Despite optimism for silver prices, JPMorgan expresses greater confidence in the gold market, citing silver's complex outlook and significant industrial demand that may be impacted by macroeconomic risks [5] Macro Economic Factors - The weakening US job market, with non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations and an unemployment rate reaching 4.3%, is contributing to heightened market volatility and increased demand for precious metals [5] - The potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence and rising US deficit rates are expected to further undermine the credibility of the US dollar and US Treasury securities, intensifying the global trend of "de-dollarization" [3]

Momentum investing revolves around the idea of following a stock's recent trend in either direction. In "long context," investors will be essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." With this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving that way. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.While many investors like to look for momentum i ...

The Swiss Banking Alliance, in partnership with PostFinance, Sygnum Bank, and UBS, recently conducted its first-ever legally binding bank payment transaction facilitated through a public blockchain. According to a study published by the Alliance, the group conducted a pilot program to investigate the viability of smart contracts and token-based deposits compared to traditional account-based banking systems. The “Deposit Token” trial tested interbank deposit transfers on public blockchain to ensure their ...

Core Insights - UBS Group AG is facing a significant challenge due to a $26 billion increase in capital requirements imposed by the Swiss government, prompting global investment banks to propose various transaction strategies to address this issue [2][5][6] Group 1: Potential Strategies - Options being considered range from a merger or acquisition with a non-Swiss bank to technical adjustments that could help UBS manage capital over the coming years [3][4] - UBS is currently not inclined towards drastic changes, preferring to engage in lobbying and public positioning as a bill progresses through the Swiss parliament [4][8] - The bank's chairman has criticized the new capital demands as "extreme," indicating that they could hinder UBS's competitiveness against global rivals [6][7] Group 2: Impact of Capital Requirements - The proposed capital requirements could lead to UBS's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio rising to approximately 19% over the next decade, which is significantly higher than what peers operate with [10] - Higher capital requirements may enhance safety but could also reduce profitability, as they require the bank to account for risks in foreign subsidiaries against its parent bank's capital [9][10] Group 3: Business Adjustments - UBS may consider downsizing or divesting risky business units to improve compliance with the new capital rules, particularly focusing on its investment banking division [12][15] - The bank's core business in global wealth management holds about $166 billion in risk-weighted assets, managing over $4 trillion in client assets [12] - Specific riskier areas, such as lending to highly-indebted companies and prime brokerage, are potential targets for reduction [17] Group 4: Technical Solutions - UBS is exploring technical methods to optimize its balance sheet, including the use of Significant Risk Transfers to shift credit risk to outside investors [20][21] - The bank is also considering "upstreaming" excess capital from its foreign subsidiaries, with plans for approximately $5 billion in transfers over time [22][23] Group 5: Future Considerations - UBS executives are currently focused on maintaining performance and hope for favorable outcomes from Swiss parliamentarians regarding the capital requirements [37] - There is speculation about the potential for UBS to shift its headquarters to escape stringent Swiss regulations, although this option has become less likely in recent months [31][33] - The uncertainty surrounding regulatory changes has negatively impacted UBS's share price, even as the broader European banking sector has seen a 30% rally [30][37]

Core Insights - A South Carolina-based team managing approximately $1.25 billion in client assets is transitioning from UBS to join LPL Financial, forming an independent practice named Ox Road Capital [1][2] - The team, which includes four principals and additional associates, primarily serves ultra-high-net-worth individuals, C-Suite executives, and medical professionals [3] - The decision to move was driven by a desire to build a lasting legacy and brand, as the team felt they had entered a new "season" in their business [3] Team Background - The team is based in Greenville, S.C., and has been together since 2016, with all members having spent their careers at UBS, except for one who had a prior stint at JPMorgan [2] - The team consists of Jeffrey Allen, Steve Armaly, Brian Blackburn, and Michael S. Lee, along with several associates [3] Transition to LPL Financial - The team conducted due diligence on potential partners and ultimately chose LPL's supported independent model, which offers greater autonomy compared to traditional employment structures [4][5] - LPL Financial's Strategic Wealth Services, launched in 2020, is designed for advisors exiting wirehouses or regional firms, particularly those managing over $200 million [5] Support from LPL Financial - LPL will provide various transitional services to the new team, including assistance with their exit from UBS, client onboarding, real estate search, technology integration, and brand development [6] - Additional support includes access to third-party CFO consultants, marketing strategists, tech support, and administrative assistance [6]

Core Insights - Three Swiss banks, including UBS, have successfully conducted a binding payment using bank deposits on a public blockchain for the first time, marking a significant innovation in the banking sector [1] - The payment was part of a feasibility study on the use of deposit tokens by PostFinance, Sygnum Bank, and UBS, indicating a collaborative effort among these institutions to explore blockchain technology [1][2] Group 1: Deposit Tokens - Deposit tokens are bank deposits that have been tokenized for use on the blockchain, allowing clients to send tokens representing bank deposits to settle transactions [2] - The tokenized deposits can be utilized across different banks, a feature that was previously unavailable, enhancing interoperability among financial institutions [2][3] Group 2: Counterparty Risk and Payment Innovation - The study demonstrated that the participating banks could effectively manage their counterparty risk, which is crucial for the adoption of such technologies [3] - This initiative represents a new form of payments on the blockchain, serving as an alternative to stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies pegged to other assets [3] Group 3: Future Prospects - Future developments could enable immediate and definitive payment processing on shared infrastructure, with potential integration into automated business processes [4] - Further work is required before the banks can fully roll out this product, indicating that while progress has been made, additional steps are necessary for implementation [4]

Core Viewpoint - UBS is exploring all options to address the capital requirements proposed by the Swiss government and plans to submit formal comments by the end of the month [1] Group 1 - UBS's CFO Todd Tuckner indicated the company's proactive approach in responding to regulatory changes [1]

Core Insights - The gold price has reached a new historical high, with COMEX gold futures hitting $3731.9 per ounce, indicating a strong bullish trend in precious metals [1][2] - Analysts predict that the target price for gold could reach $4000 per ounce sooner than previously expected due to factors such as shifts in Federal Reserve policy, increased demand for safe-haven assets, and supply-demand imbalances [1][2] Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price has increased by over 6% in September, surpassing the 5% increase in August [2] - Morgan Stanley has set a year-end target price for gold at $3800 per ounce, emphasizing the strong inverse correlation between gold and the US dollar [2] - UBS has revised its forecast, predicting gold prices could reach $3700 per ounce by June 2026, with a possibility of hitting $4000 in case of geopolitical or economic deterioration [2] - JPMorgan has also raised its gold price expectations, forecasting an average of $3800 per ounce in Q4 2023 and a breakthrough of $4000 in Q1 2026, which is a quarter earlier than their previous estimate [2][3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have also surged, with COMEX silver futures showing a year-to-date increase of 41%, outperforming gold's 35% increase [4] - The Shanghai silver futures market has entered the "ten thousand yuan era," indicating a significant price milestone [4] - Analysts suggest that the silver market is more volatile due to its smaller size compared to gold, making it susceptible to rapid price changes [4][5] - Despite the bullish outlook for silver, its industrial demand could be negatively impacted by rising prices, as seen in past speculative bubbles [4][5] Group 3: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The current economic environment, characterized by weakening employment data and rising unemployment rates, is contributing to increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [5][6] - Market sentiment remains high regarding the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [5][6] - The weakening dollar and the potential erosion of the Fed's independence are seen as key factors driving the demand for precious metals [3][5][6]

UBS faces tough new regulations in its home country Switzerland. It could still respond by taking a nuclear option https://t.co/RQNYMaB4bj ...