Corporate Structure and Compliance - Weibo Corporation reported a total of 244,271,505 shares outstanding as of December 31, 2024, comprising 156,449,481 Class A ordinary shares and 87,822,024 Class B ordinary shares[10]. - The company is classified as a large accelerated filer under the Securities Exchange Act[12]. - Weibo Corporation's financial statements are prepared in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP)[12]. - The annual report is submitted in compliance with the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, specifically under sections 13 and 15(d)[12]. - The company has confirmed that it has submitted all required reports under the Securities Exchange Act in the past 12 months[12]. - Weibo Corporation's annual report is available for review on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange website and its own investor relations website[3]. - The report includes audited financial results for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024[3]. - The board of directors includes notable members such as Chairman Cao Guowei and independent directors[4]. - The company has not indicated any errors in previously issued financial statements that require correction[12]. - Weibo Corporation is not classified as a shell company under the Securities Exchange Act[12]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the last quarter was reported at $1.2 billion, a 15% increase compared to the previous quarter[16]. - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $1,754.677 million, a slight decrease from $1,759.836 million in 2023[51]. - Net profit attributable to Weibo shareholders for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $300.801 million, compared to $342.598 million in 2023, reflecting a decrease of approximately 12.2%[51]. - Third-party revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $1,512.278 million, down from $1,531.675 million in 2023, indicating a decline of about 1.3%[51]. - Operating expenses for the year ended December 31, 2024, totaled $1,260.353 million, compared to $1,286.902 million in 2023, showing a reduction of approximately 2.1%[51]. - The company reported a profit before income tax expense of $420.655 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $502.782 million in 2023, a decrease of around 16.3%[51]. - The share of profits from subsidiaries for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $438.191 million, down from $529.304 million in 2023, representing a decline of approximately 17.3%[51]. - The company recorded a decrease in inter-company revenue from $714.835 million in 2023 to $712.383 million in 2024, a marginal decline of about 0.3%[51]. - The total cost and expenses for the year ended December 31, 2024, were $1,417.757 million, compared to $1,430.782 million in 2023, reflecting a decrease of approximately 0.9%[51]. - The net profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $310.105 million, compared to $357.495 million in 2023, indicating a decrease of about 13.2%[51]. - The company’s income tax expense for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $110.550 million, compared to $145.287 million in 2023, a decrease of approximately 24%[51]. User Engagement and Growth - The company reported a significant increase in daily active users, reaching an average of 250 million, representing a 10% year-over-year growth[15]. - User engagement metrics improved, with a 25% increase in content creation by top content creators[15]. - As of December 2024, the monthly active users reached 590 million, with an average daily active user count of 260 million[68]. - The company acknowledges that user growth rates are expected to continue to fluctuate and slow down due to market saturation and increased competition[68]. - The ability to retain existing users and enhance user engagement is critical for the company's future performance and financial health[68]. Market Strategy and Expansion - The company plans to expand its market presence in Southeast Asia, targeting a 20% increase in user base by the end of the next fiscal year[18]. - New product launches are expected to contribute an additional $300 million in revenue over the next year[19]. - The company is focusing on enhancing cybersecurity measures, allocating $10 million for upgrades in the next year[19]. - Future guidance indicates a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and exploring potential acquisitions to drive growth in the upcoming fiscal year[53][54]. Risks and Challenges - The management highlighted potential risks related to market volatility and regulatory changes that could impact future performance[18]. - The company faces significant risks related to the enforceability of its contractual arrangements with VIEs under Chinese law[27]. - There is uncertainty regarding future Chinese regulations that may affect the VIE structure and the company's operations[29]. - The company faces various legal and operational risks related to its business in China, including regulatory approvals for overseas issuance and foreign investment, which may significantly impact its operations and the value of its American Depositary Shares[30]. - The evolving regulatory environment regarding data security and privacy in China poses challenges for compliance, particularly with laws enacted in 2021 and 2024, which may affect the company's operations and lead to potential penalties[31]. - The company faces significant risks related to its business operations in China, which may impact its financial performance[61]. - The company is navigating competitive pressures in social media, online marketing, and other related businesses[23]. Regulatory Environment - The company is subject to the HFCAA, which may impact its ability to trade on U.S. exchanges if its auditor is not PCAOB inspected for two consecutive years[38]. - The company must file with the China Securities Regulatory Commission for any future overseas issuance of securities[37]. - The company is required to establish internal security management systems and implement data security measures, including data classification and encryption[184]. - The National Cybersecurity Law imposes stricter requirements on operators deemed as "critical information infrastructure," particularly regarding data storage and cross-border data transfer[185]. - The company may be classified as a "critical information infrastructure" operator, which would impose additional obligations under Chinese cybersecurity laws[185]. Financial Structure and Debt - The company has outstanding principal amounts of $750 million for 3.375% senior notes due in 2030 and $330 million for 1.375% convertible senior notes due in 2030 as of December 31, 2024[125]. - The company has a $1.2 billion revolving credit facility, which includes a $900 million term loan and a $300 million revolving credit line, with a floating interest rate of SOFR plus 1.28%[125]. - The company has fully drawn $900 million from the term loan and partially drawn $5 million from the revolving credit line, repaying $100 million of the term loan in Q4 2023[125]. - The company relies on dividends and distributions from its Chinese subsidiaries to meet cash needs, which are subject to various restrictions under Chinese law[128]. - The company’s ability to pay interest and repay debt depends on its operational management and cash flow generation capabilities[128]. Intellectual Property and Legal Risks - The company relies on patents, copyrights, trademarks, and trade secrets to protect its intellectual property, but faces challenges in monitoring unauthorized use and may incur significant legal costs[132]. - The company is at risk of third-party intellectual property infringement claims, which could adversely affect its business and financial outlook, especially in the competitive internet and technology sectors[133]. - The company allows users to upload content on its platform, which may lead to copyright infringement claims and potential legal disputes, impacting its reputation and financial performance[134]. - The company anticipates ongoing impacts from legal, regulatory, and administrative processes related to its operations, which may adversely affect its financial performance and condition[135]. Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - Alibaba is a crucial strategic partner and major shareholder for the company, and failure to maintain this partnership could significantly impact business performance and development prospects[88]. - The company's sales, marketing, and branding efforts significantly benefit from its collaboration with Sina, and any negative developments in Sina's market position could adversely affect these efforts[156]. - The company benefits significantly from its relationship with Sina, which provides extensive support, including financial, management, and marketing services[153]. User-Generated Content and Compliance - The company faces legal risks related to user-generated content on its social media platform, which may lead to significant costs and liabilities[143]. - The company has implemented measures to comply with regulations, including filtering and removing offensive content and closing illegal accounts, but some forms of online misconduct may still be difficult to detect[180]. - Non-compliance with content regulation could result in significant costs and distract management from core business operations[180]. Economic and Market Conditions - The company is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, with potential declines in advertising budgets from clients if the economic situation worsens[149]. - The overall economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected the company's revenue and business growth[76]. - Concerns about economic downturns may lead to reduced advertising budgets from clients, negatively impacting business performance[96].

Financial Performance - Revenues from VIEs accounted for 83.9%, 87.0%, and 86.2% of total revenues for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively[30]. - The consolidated total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2024, amounted to US$1,754.7 million, with third-party revenues contributing US$1,512.3 million[61]. - Total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2023, were $1,759,836 thousand, a decrease from $1,836,332 thousand in 2022, representing a decline of approximately 4.2%[62]. - Net income attributable to Weibo's shareholders for 2023 was $342,598 thousand, compared to $85,555 thousand in 2022, indicating a significant increase of 300.5%[62]. - The net income attributable to Weibo's shareholders for the year ended December 31, 2024, was US$300.8 million[61]. - The total amount of service fees paid by VIEs to the relevant WFOE for the years ended December 31, 2022, 2023, and 2024 was US$1,076.4 million, US$757.8 million, and US$769.0 million, respectively[55]. - The share of income from subsidiaries for 2023 was $529,304 thousand, compared to $305,672 thousand in 2022, reflecting an increase of 73.5%[62]. - The company had total shareholders' equity of $3,448,888 thousand as of December 31, 2023, compared to $3,533,783 thousand in 2022, indicating a decrease of 2.4%[65]. Regulatory Environment - The PRC regulatory environment regarding data security and privacy is rapidly evolving, posing compliance challenges[38]. - New anti-monopoly regulations in China may impact the company's operations and compliance requirements[39]. - The company may face penalties if it fails to comply with PRC laws and regulations, which could adversely affect its business[42]. - The company is subject to risks associated with the interpretation and enforcement of PRC laws, which could affect its operations[42]. - The company must file with the CSRC for future overseas offerings and listings, which may impact capital raising activities[44]. - The PCAOB has not issued any new determination regarding the inspection of accounting firms in mainland China and Hong Kong, which may affect the company's status under the HFCAA[47]. - The company does not expect to be identified as a Commission-Identified Issuer under the HFCAA after filing the annual report on Form 20-F[46]. - The Chinese government has implemented new advertising regulations effective May 1, 2023, requiring internet platform operators to prevent illegal advertisements and establish compliance mechanisms[101]. - The company is obligated to monitor advertising content for compliance with PRC laws, which could expose it to penalties if not adhered to[100]. - The company is subject to numerous cybersecurity regulations, which may lead to significant operational disruptions if compliance is not met[228]. Corporate Structure and VIEs - The company relies on contractual arrangements with VIEs for operations, which may not provide the same control as direct ownership[36]. - The company is classified as a "controlled company" under Nasdaq rules, allowing it to rely on exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements[201]. - Current PRC laws restrict foreign ownership in internet-related businesses to a maximum of 50%, impacting the company's corporate structure[207]. - The company consolidates the operating results of its VIEs under U.S. GAAP, despite investors purchasing equity in a Cayman Islands holding company[207]. - The VIEs hold critical assets such as the Internet Content Provision License and Online Culture Operating Permit, which are essential for business operations[215]. - There are uncertainties regarding the interpretation and enforcement of PRC laws that could impact the viability of the company's corporate structure[209]. - The company may face adverse tax consequences if PRC tax authorities challenge the arm's length nature of its contractual arrangements[216]. - Shareholders of the VIEs may have conflicts of interest that could adversely affect the performance of contractual arrangements[214]. - The legal system in China presents uncertainties regarding the enforcement of contractual arrangements, which could disrupt business operations[211]. - The company may lose access to important assets if any VIE declares bankruptcy or undergoes liquidation proceedings[215]. User Engagement and Advertising - The company relies heavily on online advertising and marketing services for revenue generation, which poses risks if user engagement declines[78]. - Advertising and marketing services accounted for 87%, 87%, and 85% of total revenues in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, highlighting the company's reliance on this revenue stream[95]. - The effectiveness of the company's advertising services depends on user engagement and the size of its user base compared to competitors[105]. - The company emphasizes the importance of user-generated content and influencer contributions for maintaining user engagement and platform attractiveness[84]. - The company has introduced new functionalities and content formats, including Trends, Search, and live streaming, to enhance user engagement, but the effectiveness of these strategies remains uncertain[83]. - The company must adapt its advertising services to evolving user preferences, particularly the increasing demand for video content, to maintain revenue growth[98]. - The company is focused on developing new features and services to attract users and generate revenue, but new initiatives may not always succeed[117]. - The company has experienced revenue fluctuations due to external factors such as COVID-19, economic conditions, and competition, leading to a slowdown in revenue growth[94]. - The company continues to combat spam on its platform, which could negatively impact user engagement and operational costs[124]. - The company reported 590 million monthly active users (MAUs) and 260 million daily active users (DAUs) as of December 2024, indicating a potential decline in user growth rate due to market saturation[82]. Financial Obligations and Capital Needs - The company relies on dividends from PRC subsidiaries for cash needs, which are subject to restrictions under PRC laws, potentially impacting financial obligations[161]. - The company may need additional capital and financing, which may not be available on acceptable terms, potentially leading to increased debt obligations and operational restrictions[162]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company was in compliance with financial covenants related to its 2027 Loans, but failure to comply could lead to technical default[163]. - The company reported a net cash used in financing activities of $(1,029,439) thousand for the year ended December 31, 2024[67]. - The company experienced a decline in cash provided by operating activities from $(35,216) thousand in 2022 to $(84,940) thousand in 2023[68]. Legal and Compliance Risks - The company faces significant legal and regulatory risks related to data security and privacy, including potential penalties for non-compliance with various laws[131]. - The company may face liability for copyright or trademark infringement due to user-generated content on its platform, which could harm its reputation and financial condition[167]. - The company is required to verify the identities of all users who post on its platform, but has not been able to do so, exposing it to potential severe penalties[236]. - The company must conduct personal information protection compliance audits at least once every two years if processing data of over 10 million individuals[233]. - Regulatory investigations could lead to additional expenses and changes in business practices that may adversely affect the company's operations[239]. Operational Challenges - The company faces risks related to user misconduct on its platform, which could negatively impact brand image and financial performance[141]. - The company may face significant operational challenges if telecommunications and internet service costs rise, potentially affecting user growth and engagement[173]. - Service disruptions and infrastructure failures could hinder the company's ability to retain and attract users, impacting overall business performance[174]. - The company prioritizes product innovation and user experience over short-term results, which may adversely affect revenues and operating results[176]. - A prolonged economic downturn could materially affect the company's business and financial condition, particularly in advertising revenues[185]. Strategic Relationships - The relationship with SINA is crucial for the company's operations, and any reduction in support from SINA could lead to operational challenges[190]. - SINA has pledged 50% of its Class B ordinary shares in the company to secure a loan of up to $150 million, with a maturity date of March 13, 2028[196]. - If SINA defaults on the loan, it may lead to a change in control of the company, as the security agent could sell or foreclose on the pledged shares[198]. - Conflicts of interest may arise due to SINA's controlling ownership, potentially leading to decisions that favor SINA over the company's interests[203]. - The company has agreed to indemnify SINA for liabilities related to its business, which could create adverse interests between the two entities[204].

Market Capitalization Summary - The market capitalization of various companies is highlighted, with notable figures such as 71.94 billion for an unnamed company and 69.52 billion for another [2]. - Companies like Bilibili and TAL Education have market capitalizations of 64.03 billion and 61.59 billion respectively [2]. - The lowest market capitalizations listed include 0.90672 million for Happy Car and 0.17235 million for Easy Electric [3]. Stock Performance - Stock performance shows fluctuations, with companies like Zai Lab experiencing a decrease of 0.36 (-2.72%) and 0.13 (-3.87%) for another unnamed company [2]. - Positive movements are noted for companies such as 51Talk, which increased by 0.99 (+2.74%) [2]. - The performance of companies like Huya and Xunlei shows declines of 0.11 (-4.00%) and 0.10 (-3.11%) respectively [3]. Company Highlights - Notable companies include JD.com with a market cap of 71.94 billion and TAL Education at 61.59 billion, indicating strong positions in the market [2]. - Other companies like 9F Inc. and Yatsen Global have market caps of 4.98 billion and 3.28 billion respectively, showcasing a diverse range of market sizes [2]. - The report also mentions companies with smaller market caps, such as 1.34 million for Baozun and 1.07 million for Leopard Mobile, indicating a broad spectrum of company valuations [3].

Market Capitalization Summary - The market capitalizations of various companies are listed, with notable values including 70.93 billion, 68.75 billion, and 66.79 billion [2] - Companies such as SOU, 奇富科技, and 再鼎医药 show significant market values of 47.99 billion, 66.05 billion, and 32.90 billion respectively [2] - The market performance of companies like 陆金所控股 and 雾芯科技 reflects increases of +3.70% and +0.99% respectively [2] Stock Performance Highlights - Notable stock price changes include +0.80 (+1.87%) for one company and +2.10 (+5.82%) for another [2] - Companies like 乐信 and iQiyi show stock price changes of -1.16% and +2.91% respectively [2] - The stock performance of companies such as 优信 and 宜人智科 indicates increases of +1.07% and +5.64% respectively [2] Emerging Companies - Newer companies like 新氧 and 天境生物 have market capitalizations of 827.85 million and 561.38 million respectively, with stock price increases of +3.99% and +11.10% [3] - Companies like 华米科技 and 开心汽车 show market values of 36.39 million and 9.20 million, with stock price changes of +9.61% and -1.18% respectively [3]

Market Overview - The US stock market opened with all three major indices declining significantly, with the Dow Jones dropping over 1400 points, a decrease of 3.48%, the Nasdaq falling by 4.47%, and the S&P 500 down by 4.10% [1] - Major technology stocks experienced substantial declines, with Tesla down over 9%, Nvidia down over 7%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $176.9 billion (approximately 1.28 trillion RMB) [2] - Chip stocks collectively fell, with AMD, Intel, and Broadcom each dropping over 6%, and TSMC down over 4% [3] Chinese Stocks - Popular Chinese stocks also saw significant declines, with Bilibili down over 9%, Alibaba, JD.com, and iQIYI down over 8%, and Xpeng and NIO down over 7% [5] Commodity Prices - Spot gold prices fell by over 1%, while silver prices dropped by over 4% [6] - International crude oil prices plummeted, with both Brent and WTI crude oil down over 7% [7][9] European Market - European stock markets experienced rapid declines, with Germany's DAX index down over 4%, France's CAC40 down 3.90%, the UK's FTSE index down 4.36%, Italy's FTSE MIB index down over 6%, and Spain's IBEX35 down over 5% [10] Employment Data - The US non-farm payrolls report for March showed an increase of 228,000 jobs, surpassing expectations of 140,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, above the expected 4.1% [10][11] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month, matching expectations, while year-over-year growth was reported at 3.8%, slightly below the expected 4.0% [10] Trade Policies - The US government announced a 34% tariff on all imports from the US starting April 10, which may lead to increased layoffs in the private sector [11][12] - President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on trade partners, with higher tariffs for countries with significant trade deficits with the US [11][12]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the resilience of domestic consumption in 2024, driven by government policies and the emergence of experience-based consumption as a key trend [2][9][12]. Group 1: Market Changes - The marketing landscape is witnessing three significant changes: diversification of marketing touchpoints, continued dominance of IP and event marketing in capturing user traffic, and the rise of experiential consumption as a means to break through marketing barriers [2][3][4]. - Government policies, such as subsidies and trade-in programs, are significantly activating the market, particularly in durable goods like automobiles and home appliances [12][9]. - The 2024 consumption growth is characterized by a reliance on promotions, with notable growth disparities between high-elasticity and essential goods [11][12]. Group 2: Consumer Characteristics - The mobile internet user base continues to grow, leading to a shift from traffic competition to stock operation and value reconstruction in marketing [15][19]. - There is an increase in the usage of decision-making apps, indicating a trend towards multi-platform price comparison for optimal decision-making [17][19]. - Female consumers dominate high-value purchases, while male consumers are increasingly focused on self-satisfaction, particularly in technology-related categories [21][23]. Group 3: Marketing Strategies - AI is being widely adopted in content creation, enhancing efficiency and quality, while also raising concerns about copyright and content details [25][27]. - Brands are focusing on integrating marketing resources at key points to enhance conversion rates and improve return on investment (ROI) [56][61]. - The marketing approach is evolving towards a multi-faceted strategy that balances brand exposure with asset accumulation, leveraging both hard advertising and content marketing [49][51]. Group 4: Media Ecosystem - The media landscape is entering a phase of value deepening, with short videos, social media, and e-commerce leading marketing growth [5][37]. - The content and scene value of media are crucial for capturing user attention, with significant growth in advertising capacity for video and social media platforms [37][40]. - Marketing resources are increasingly concentrating on top-tier and e-commerce media, indicating a trend towards commercializing high-traffic platforms [44][46]. Group 5: Future Trends - The marketing core is shifting from traffic to user engagement, with a focus on multi-touchpoint coverage and deep content to enhance user loyalty [48][86]. - Brands are expected to continue leveraging experiential marketing and cultural IPs to create deeper emotional connections with consumers [76][81].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Zijin Mining, Weichuang Electric, Ideal Auto, and Honghua Wisdom Energy [22][24][26][36] Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of recovery, with consumer demand beginning to stabilize, particularly in the real estate and automotive sectors [2][4] - The report highlights a positive outlook for the consumer sector driven by government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption, including the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" [17] - The technology sector, particularly companies like NVIDIA, is expected to benefit from upcoming product launches and advancements in chip technology [28] Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The report indicates that the U.S. economic growth expectations are being downgraded, while Germany's fiscal expansion plans are gaining traction [2] - Consumer demand is showing marginal improvement compared to the previous year, with signs of recovery in housing transactions and automotive sales [2][4] Sector Analysis - The consumer sector is expected to see a shift from "repair growth" to "endogenous expansion," with a focus on service consumption and quality improvement [17] - The report emphasizes the potential for structural investment opportunities in sectors such as AI-driven consumption and the aging population market [17][18] Company-Specific Insights - Zijin Mining is projected to maintain strong growth with a forecasted CAGR of 14% for net profit from 2025 to 2028 [22] - Weichuang Electric is recognized for its leadership in industrial control and is expected to expand into new markets, maintaining a "Buy" rating [22] - Ideal Auto's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with new models set to launch in 2025 [24] - Honghua Wisdom Energy reported a substantial increase in core profits, with a projected dividend yield exceeding 6% [29] Market Trends - The A-share market is anticipated to continue its upward trend, supported by a favorable macro environment and active market sentiment [7] - The report notes that the technology sector remains a key focus for investment, with expectations of strong performance in the coming quarters [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of $12.92 [7][18]. Core Insights - The company's 4Q revenue decreased by 1.5% year-over-year to $457 million, slightly below the consensus estimate by 0.5%. However, adjusted net profit increased by 39.6% to $107 million, exceeding expectations by 5.3% [1]. - Management anticipates an increase in advertising spending in the 3C, automotive, and e-commerce sectors in 2025, while the fast-moving consumer goods sector remains stable. The gaming and beauty sectors continue to face pressure [1][2]. - The company is focusing on building a content ecosystem and enhancing user engagement and quality, with daily active users (DAU) and monthly active users (MAU) at 260 million and 590 million, respectively [1][3]. Summary by Sections 4Q Performance - 4Q advertising revenue fell by 4.4% year-over-year to $386 million, primarily due to a high base effect from 2023. Value-added services (VAS) revenue grew by 18.4% to $71 million [2]. - The automotive and mobile sectors showed steady growth, while the beauty sector continued to struggle. The impact of consumer stimulus policies is expected to gradually manifest in 1Q25 [2]. AI and Content Strategy - The company is deepening its AI initiatives, enhancing content distribution efficiency and user engagement through features like "Smart Search" and AI-generated comments [3]. - The integration of AI is expected to empower the company's search and advertising business, leveraging its strong content moat [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been lowered by 4.1% and 3.7% to $484 million and $495 million, respectively, mainly due to tax rate adjustments. The 2027 forecast is introduced with expected revenue and adjusted net profit of $1.87 billion and $509 million [4][13]. - The target price of $12.92 corresponds to a 6.5x PE ratio based on the 2025 adjusted net profit, which is at a discount compared to the global peer average of 21.3x due to liquidity factors and slower revenue growth [4][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Weibo, with a target price (TP) of US$14.50, down from the previous TP of US$15.00, indicating a potential upside of 39.2% from the current price of US$10.42 [3][6]. Core Insights - Weibo's 4Q24 results showed net revenue of US$457 million, largely flat year-over-year (YoY) on a constant currency basis, and non-GAAP net income grew by 40% YoY to US$107 million, exceeding consensus estimates by 9% due to effective operational expense control [1][6]. - The overall advertiser sentiment for FY25 remains mixed, with certain sectors like 3C and e-commerce increasing ad budgets due to national subsidy programs, while others like cosmetics and personal care are cautious [1][6]. - The forecast for Weibo's total revenue in FY25 is a growth of 2% YoY on a constant currency basis, with a reduction in FY25-26E earnings forecast by 3-5% due to a soft revenue outlook and increased AI investments [1][6]. Financial Performance - FY24 net revenue was US$1.75 billion, up 1% YoY on a constant currency basis, while advertising revenue in 4Q24 declined by 3% YoY to US$386 million [1][6]. - VAS (Value-Added Services) revenue increased by 18% YoY to US$71 million in 4Q24, driven by membership and game-related revenue growth [6]. - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) declined by 1% YoY to 590 million in December 2024, but the Daily Active Users (DAU) to MAU ratio improved to 44.1% [6]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The revenue forecast for FY25 is US$1.77 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to be US$481 million, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to be 27.2% for FY25, down from 27.3% in FY24, primarily due to increased investments in AI [6][12]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 79.0% for FY25, consistent with previous years [7][12]. Shareholding and Market Data - Major shareholders include Sina with 37.3% and Alibaba with 28.9% [4]. - The market capitalization of Weibo is approximately US$2.45 billion, with an average trading volume of US$13.4 million over the past three months [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at $14.5 based on an 8x P/E ratio for FY25E [1][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a net revenue of $457 million for Q4 2024, showing a year-over-year growth of approximately 0% in constant currency, aligning with Bloomberg consensus expectations. Non-GAAP net profit increased by 40% year-over-year to $107 million, exceeding expectations by 9% due to effective operational expense control [1][2]. - For FY25E, the overall sentiment among advertisers remains mixed, with certain verticals like 3C products and e-commerce increasing ad budgets supported by national subsidy programs, while others like cosmetics and gaming are cautious in ad spending. The company forecasts a 2% year-over-year revenue growth in constant currency for FY25E [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company expects a slight revenue recovery in FY25E, projecting a total revenue of $1.77 billion, which represents a 2% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by growth in advertising revenue from 3C and e-commerce sectors [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is estimated at $481 million, with an adjusted EPS of $1.81. The report indicates a decrease in the non-GAAP operating profit margin to 31% for FY25E, down from 33% in FY24, mainly due to increased investments in artificial intelligence [4][14]. User Engagement Metrics - As of December 2024, the monthly active users (MAUs) decreased by 1% year-over-year to 590 million, while the daily active users (DAUs) to MAUs ratio improved to 44.1% from 43.0% in December 2023 [2][3]. Dividend Policy - The company announced an annual dividend policy, planning to pay $200 million in dividends for FY24, which equates to an approximate 8% dividend yield [3][4].