Company Recommendation - BYD Electronics (0285) is recommended for purchase with a target price of HKD 38.50, indicating a potential upside of 16.7% from the current price of HKD 33.95 [2][10] - The catalysts for growth include the lifting of the EDA ban in the US and the completion of the US-Vietnam trade agreement, which is expected to ease concerns regarding upstream supply chain pricing and gross margin pressures [2][10] - The company is diversifying into AI servers, liquid cooling, and Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMR), with a strong partnership with NVIDIA, which is anticipated to drive new growth momentum [2][10] Valuation - The current price corresponds to a forecasted P/E ratio of 13.2x for FY25E and 11.2x for FY26E, with FY26E valuation being 29% lower than the 5-year average [2][10] - The expected revenue and net profit compound annual growth rates for FY24-FY27E are 11.6% and 22.4%, respectively [2][10] Market Review - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, influenced by US-China trade negotiations and limited progress in economic stimulus from mainland China [2][4] - The market is experiencing a slowdown in capital inflow from Northbound trading, with corporate earnings showing limited improvement [2][4] Industry Insights - The automotive sector in China is showing resilience, with a 22.2% year-on-year increase in vehicle exports in June, and production and sales also reflecting positive growth [11] - The construction and real estate sectors are seeing increased land sale revenues, particularly in first and second-tier cities, with a 40% increase in land sale amounts [11] - The gaming industry in Macau is expected to benefit from strong summer season revenues, with June's gaming income exceeding expectations [5]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The recent US-China trade talks have led to a temporary reduction in tariffs, but further progress remains uncertain, impacting corporate earnings and capital inflow [2][4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,892 points, down 1.06% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.76% [6] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting cautious optimism about inflation [5][8] - China's June CPI unexpectedly rose by 0.1%, ending four months of deflation, while PPI fell by 3.6%, the largest drop in two years [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission estimates China's economy could reach 140 trillion yuan this year, emphasizing the importance of innovation in economic growth [9] Corporate News - New World Development is reportedly seeking to sell its K11 properties in Hangzhou and Shenzhen, aiming to attract investment from private firms [10] - Longfor Group's debt restructuring plan has been approved by creditors, allowing for adjustments in repayment arrangements [11] - BYD has achieved significant advancements in smart parking technology, promising comprehensive safety coverage for users [10] Sector Focus - Macau's June gaming revenue exceeded expectations, indicating a strong recovery as the summer peak season approaches [7] - The online music sector faces intensified competition, prompting a potential shift of funds towards more visible tech stocks [7] - The global PC shipment volume increased by 6.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with Lenovo leading the market share at 24.8% [9]

Company Recommendations - Chow Tai Fook (1929) is recommended for buy with a target price of HKD 15.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.8%. The catalysts for this recommendation include the historical high gold prices and an increase in the proportion of high-margin fixed-price gold products, which is expected to narrow the year-on-year decline in same-store sales and revenue [10][13] - Pop Mart (9992) is also recommended for buy with a target price of HKD 300.00, representing a potential upside of 16.3%. The catalysts include the sustained popularity of key IPs like the Monsters series and the new IP CRYBABY, with expectations of an earnings surprise announcement in mid-July [14][16] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is currently facing resistance at 24,700 points, with recent trade talks between China and the U.S. leading to a temporary reduction in tariffs. However, the lack of progress in trade negotiations and limited corporate profit improvements are contributing to a slowdown in capital inflow [3][7] - The Chinese stock market is showing signs of recovery, with the Hang Seng Index recently surpassing 24,000 points, reflecting a positive market sentiment despite external pressures [7] Sector Focus - The Macau gaming sector is expected to perform well, with June's gaming revenue significantly exceeding expectations and the summer peak season approaching [8] - The brokerage sector is also highlighted, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3,500 points and a continued trend of A+H share listings [8] Technical Analysis - Chow Tai Fook's stock price recently reached a 52-week high, supported by strong trading volume and a positive technical outlook, indicating potential for further gains [11][12] - Pop Mart's stock is currently supported at the 20-day moving average, with a favorable technical setup suggesting the possibility of new highs if it maintains above this level [15][18] Industry Growth - The traditional gold jewelry market in mainland China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22% from 2023 to 2028, with Chow Tai Fook holding a significant market share of 20% [13] - Pop Mart's sales growth in Q1 2025 is reported to be significantly higher than management's initial guidance, indicating strong demand for its IP products across both domestic and international markets [18]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The US-China trade talks have seen limited progress, and there is a lack of willingness from China to implement further economic stimulus measures [2] - The inflow of capital from the north has slowed down, indicating limited improvement in corporate earnings [2] Macro Focus - The US has announced tariffs on Japan and South Korea at 25%, and on Laos and Myanmar at 40%, effective August 1 [4][8] - The US Treasury Secretary anticipates discussions with Chinese officials to advance trade and other issues [4][8] - The US Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting a cautious stance on inflation uncertainties [4][8] - The Chinese central bank increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in June, continuing a trend of accumulation [4][8] Sector Highlights - The biotechnology sector is expected to benefit from new measures supporting the high-quality development of innovative drugs [7] - Macau's gaming revenue in June increased by 19% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [7] - The power sector is seeing increased demand due to high temperatures [7] Company News - Lens Technology (6613) priced its shares at HKD 18.18, a discount of nearly 28% compared to A-shares [10] - Dongfeng Motor (0489) aims to maintain its annual sales target of 3 million vehicles, with a focus on 1 million new energy vehicles [10] - Xiaomi (1810) reported a 20-fold increase in air conditioner sales in Northeast China due to unprecedented high temperatures [10] - NIO (9866) plans to officially launch its third factory in Hefei in September [10] - JD Logistics (1519) reported a 23.5% year-on-year increase in parcel volume for the second quarter [10]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The index closed at 23,916 points, down 0.64% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.45% [4] - The market is experiencing a slowdown in capital inflow from mainland investors, and corporate earnings improvements are limited [2][5] Macro Focus - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting a cautious stance on future inflation uncertainties [3] - OPEC+ has agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, which may limit the upward potential of international oil prices [8] Company News - China Feihe (6186) expects a decline in half-year earnings, projecting net profit between 1 billion to 1.2 billion RMB, with a total dividend of no less than 2 billion RMB for the year [9] - Xiaomi (1810) has officially delivered its first batch of the YU7 SUV, priced between 253,500 to 329,900 RMB, with significant initial order numbers [9] - BYD (1211) reported a 54.4% month-on-month increase in sales of its Tang L model, reaching 12,700 units in June [9] - NIO (9866) announced that its L90 model will be priced below 300,000 RMB, with a product launch event scheduled [9] Industry Insights - The biotechnology sector is expected to benefit from new government measures supporting the high-quality development of innovative drugs [6] - Macau's gaming revenue in June increased by 19% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations, indicating a recovery in the gaming industry [6] - The textile industry anticipates improved orders as Nike's performance is expected to stabilize [6] Economic Indicators - China's smartphone shipments fell by 22% year-on-year in May, with 5G phone shipments decreasing by 17% [8] - The average price of international tickets from mainland China has decreased by 15% this summer, with significant drops in prices for flights to Canada and Japan [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months, following a reduction in tariffs between the US and China [2] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to limited progress in US-China trade talks and a lack of significant economic stimulus from mainland China [2] Macro Focus - The Caixin China Services PMI fell to 50.6 in June, below expectations, indicating a slowdown in service sector expansion [3][8] - Retail sales of new energy vehicles in China increased by 25% year-on-year in June, with a penetration rate of 52.7% [8] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to strengthen guidance on second-hand vehicle exports, aiming to support the development of the second-hand car market [8] - The Macau gaming sector saw a 19% year-on-year increase in June gaming revenue, exceeding expectations [6] Company News - Alibaba issued over 12 billion HKD in zero-coupon convertible bonds for Alibaba Health [3] - Geely Auto is entering the Italian market, while XPeng's G7 model starts at 195,800 RMB [3] - HSBC Holdings sold its UK insurance business for approximately 260 million GBP [3] Industry Insights - The biotechnology sector is expected to benefit from new measures supporting the high-quality development of innovative drugs [6] - The textile industry anticipates improved orders as Nike's performance is expected to stabilize [6] - The solar industry is facing challenges due to low-price competition, prompting the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to call for comprehensive governance [9] IPO Market - KPMG estimates that the total amount raised from new IPOs in Hong Kong could reach up to 250 billion HKD this year, with over 200 applications currently being processed [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The recent US-China trade talks have led to a reduction in tariffs, with US tariffs on Chinese imports dropping from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on US imports decreasing from 125% to 10% [2] - The inflow of capital from mainland investors has slowed, and corporate earnings improvements are limited [2] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has mandated that cash transactions over 100,000 RMB for gold and diamonds must be reported starting August [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has completed the allocation of 800 billion RMB for construction projects this year [4] - Hong Kong's retail sales rose by 2.4% in May, ending a 14-month decline [4][10] Corporate News - Luxshare Precision is planning to raise 1 billion USD through an H-share listing in Hong Kong [5][11] - Alibaba repurchased approximately 56 million shares for 805 million USD in the last quarter [11] - Xiaomi is prioritizing domestic delivery issues for its new car model YU7, with plans to expand production [11] - Geely is set to launch its brand of cars in the UK, starting with the electric SUV EX5 [11] IPO Market - PwC forecasts that Hong Kong's IPO fundraising will exceed 200 billion RMB this year, potentially making it the top global market [9] - The first half of the year saw Hong Kong's IPO market raise 107.1 billion RMB, a sevenfold increase from the previous year [9] Sector Focus - The biotech sector is expected to benefit from new government measures supporting high-quality development [8] - Macau's gaming revenue in June increased by 19% year-on-year, surpassing expectations [8] - The textile sector anticipates improved orders following Nike's performance [8] Banking Sector - KPMG reported that Hong Kong's banking sector showed resilient growth, with total assets increasing by 4.5% to 24 trillion RMB [10] - The non-performing loan ratio rose from 1.65% to 2.15%, primarily due to challenges in the commercial real estate sector [10]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months, as the US-China trade talks show limited progress and corporate earnings improvement remains constrained [2] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,072 points, down 0.87% [6] Macro Focus - The Central Economic Commission of China is advancing the construction of a unified national market, emphasizing the need for regulatory improvements and quality enhancement in products [3][8] - The official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs for June exceeded expectations, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [3][8] - Macau's June gaming revenue rose by 19%, surpassing expectations, reflecting a positive trend in the gaming sector [3][7] Company News - Xiaomi delivered over 25,000 vehicles in June, indicating strong performance in the automotive sector [4] - Geely's June sales increased by 42%, prompting an upward revision of its annual sales target by 11% [4] - New World Development secured a financing agreement worth 88.2 billion yuan, showcasing robust financial activity [4] Industry Insights - The gaming industry in mainland China saw the approval of 158 domestic and imported games in June, marking a significant increase in new titles [7] - The textile sector is optimistic about improved orders, driven by expectations of better performance from major brands like Nike [7] - The film industry in mainland China reported a total box office of over 29.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with the animated film "Nezha 2" accounting for over half of the revenue [9] Financial Market Developments - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened in the currency market, buying over 20 billion HKD to defend the peg against the US dollar [9] - The issuance of QDII quotas totaling 3.08 billion USD aims to support cross-border investment by qualified domestic institutional investors [9] - The Hong Kong government's financial situation showed a deficit of 78.4 billion HKD in the first two months of the fiscal year, primarily due to timing in tax revenue collection [9]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the China-U.S. trade negotiations, with a temporary reduction in tariffs but no long-term agreement in sight [2][6] - The Hang Seng Index is expected to face resistance at 24,700 points, reflecting a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The report indicates a stable performance from the shopping center management company, with a projected annual dividend of no less than 13.0 HKD cents over the next three years [5][9] Company-Specific Insights - The company is recognized as a leading shopping center management enterprise in the Greater Bay Area, with a stable operational background linked to a private real estate firm [5][9] - The same-store sales growth for the company's shopping centers is recorded at 8.8% for 2024 and 5-6% for the first five months of 2025, driven by strong consumer demand from Hong Kong residents [5][9] - The company's entrusted management business has shown stable performance, contributing 66.2% to total revenue and 73.9% to gross profit in 2024, despite a slight decline in gross margin [5][9] - The brand and management output business faces downward pressure, with a reduction in project numbers from 63 to 34 between 2021 and 2024, impacting revenue significantly [5][9] - The company maintains a healthy cash flow, with a net cash position of 1.37 billion RMB, which supports its dividend distribution plan [5][9] Industry Insights - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from increased domestic demand initiatives, including the continuation of trade-in subsidies [6] - The gold mining sector is influenced by geopolitical tensions, with central banks continuing to increase their gold reserves [6] - The report notes that Hong Kong's exports have increased by 15.5% year-on-year, marking 15 consecutive months of growth, driven by strong demand from Asia [10]

每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 恒指受制 24,700 點：中美在 5 月中旬於瑞士日內瓦經貿會談後發布聯合 聲明，雙方降低加徵關稅，互相保留加徵 10%關稅，美國對中國進口貨 品關稅將由 145%降至 30%，中國對美國進口貨品將由 125%降至 10%， 為期 90 日。中美 6 月倫敦談判達框架協議，後續關注 90 日對等關稅寬 限期過後能否取得長期協議。以伊停火，惟其後雙方是否遵循協議，仍有 待觀察。中美貿談續缺乏進展，內地現階段加推經濟刺激方案的意願不大， 企業盈利改善有限，北水於高位流入速度放緩。恒指阻力料見於 24,700 點，相當於未來 12 個月預測市盈率 11 倍。 短期看好板塊 今日市場焦點 ➢ 美國首季 GDP、核心 PCE 指數； 宏觀焦點 ➢ 財政部：根據形勢變化 及時推出增量儲備政策； 港滙觸7.85弱方 金管局今晨承接94.2億港元沽盤； 鮑威爾:未來貿易協議或允許聯儲局考慮減息； 歐盟警告：即使特朗普實施基準關稅，仍將進行報復； 企業消息 ➢ 據報比亞迪(1211)部分產能取消夜班及減產 暫 ...