Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 1.90, reflecting a potential upside of 15% from the current price of HKD 1.65 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to recover profitability as production utilization rates rebound, with Q3 2024 performance indicating a stabilization after significant losses in previous quarters [2]. - The production and sales of granular silicon have shown stability, with production and shipment volumes increasing by 17% and 20% year-on-year, respectively, in Q3 2024 [2]. - Cash costs have decreased, aligning with expectations, and further cost reduction is anticipated as production processes improve [2]. - Supply-side reforms in the silicon material sector are expected to support inventory reduction and price recovery, benefiting leading companies in the industry [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from RMB 35,930 million in 2022 to RMB 16,668 million in 2024, before recovering to RMB 31,582 million by 2026, reflecting a significant year-on-year change of -51% in 2024 and a recovery of 32% in 2026 [1]. - Shareholder net profit is forecasted to drop sharply to RMB -3,200 million in 2024, with a recovery to RMB 3,032 million by 2026, indicating a year-on-year change of -228% in 2024 and a positive change of 203% in 2026 [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to turn negative at RMB -0.12 in 2024, with a gradual recovery to RMB 0.11 by 2026 [1]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 39.4 in 2025 and 13.0 in 2026, indicating a significant variation in valuation as profitability improves [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining (2899) with a target price of HKD 22.34, representing a potential upside of 32% from the current price of HKD 16.92 [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that rising gold and copper prices, driven by economic uncertainties and demand for safe-haven assets, are expected to support the company's profitability [1]. - The company has shown significant growth in production volumes, particularly in gold and silver, while maintaining stable cost levels [1]. - New projects, such as the acquisition of the Akyem gold mine in Ghana, are anticipated to enhance gold production in the future [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, Zijin Mining reported revenue of CNY 230.396 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 24.357 billion, up 50.68% [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved revenue of CNY 79.98 billion, a 7.11% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 9.273 billion, reflecting a 63.64% increase [1]. - The average price of gold reached USD 2,648.8 per ounce, a 13.64% increase since the end of June, while copper prices also remained at historical highs [1]. Production and Cost Analysis - The production volumes for key products in the first three quarters were as follows: gold at 54.3 tons (up 8.33%), silver at 331.1 tons (up 6.69%), and copper at 789,459 tons (up 4.67%) [1]. - The unit sales costs for copper concentrate, electrolytic copper, and refined copper were CNY 18,800, CNY 32,700, and CNY 35,700 per ton, with year-on-year changes of -4.16%, +5.49%, and -13.05% respectively [1]. - The report anticipates further cost reductions as production continues to ramp up in Q4 [1]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to CNY 325.8 billion, CNY 362.5 billion, and CNY 379.2 billion respectively, with net profit projections of CNY 30 billion, CNY 38.6 billion, and CNY 41.9 billion [1][3]. - The report indicates that the company is expected to maintain a high level of profitability, with a projected PE ratio of 18 times for 2024 [1].

来源: 公司资料, 第一上海预测 来源：彭博 五粮液（000858） 更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------|----------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------|-------------------------|------------|---------------|-------------------------------| | 经营业绩控速调整，分红规划再创新高 | 买入 | | | | | 黎航荣 | 2024 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Electronics, with a target price of HKD 47, indicating a potential upside of 45% from the current price of HKD 32.55 [2][3]. Core Insights - BYD Electronics reported a net profit of RMB 3.06 billion for the first three quarters, with total revenue reaching RMB 122.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.54%. The gross profit was RMB 9.06 billion, up 14.68% year-on-year, while net profit growth was modest at 0.64% [2]. - The growth in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to the consolidation of Jabil's profits following its acquisition, alongside growth in high-end Android devices and automotive electronics [2]. - The automotive electronics segment is expected to generate nearly RMB 20 billion this year, with high-value products like active suspension and smart cockpit gaining traction in the second half of the year [2]. - AI-related businesses are projected to contribute around RMB 1 billion in revenue this year, with expectations for significant growth in the following year [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 167.1 billion, representing a growth of 28.5%, with net profit expected to reach RMB 4.33 billion, a growth of 7.3% [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 1.79 in 2023 to RMB 1.92 in 2024, and further to RMB 2.39 in 2025 [4]. - The report anticipates a decrease in financial expenses in the coming year, which will positively impact profit contributions [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 15.4, indicating a potential upside of 52.4% from the current price of HKD 10.12 [1]. Core Views - The company has shown a slight increase in net profit quarter-on-quarter, with a 21.5% increase in Q2 net profit, aligning with market expectations. However, the year-on-year net profit has decreased by 22.5% [1]. - The coal business remains stable, with a quarterly production increase leading to a decrease in costs. The average selling price of coal is expected to rise slightly due to increased demand as the weather cools [1]. - The coal chemical segment has turned profitable, with a stable performance in the first three quarters, achieving revenue of RMB 187 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 106.6 billion, with a net profit of RMB 38.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 27% [1]. - The coal segment's quarterly revenue was RMB 228 billion, with a gross profit margin of 50.2%, an increase of 5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The coal chemical business reported a gross profit of RMB 15 billion in Q3, indicating a stable profitability outlook for the year [1]. Production and Sales Outlook - The company anticipates orderly production releases across various business segments, with new coal mines expected to commence operations by the end of the year and in 2026 [1]. - The coal production is projected to maintain growth, supported by new mining projects and increased operational efficiency [1]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB 1.53, RMB 1.76, and RMB 1.93 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a gradual recovery in profitability [2]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 15.3 billion, with a slight increase expected in subsequent years [2].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on Xiaomi Group (1810), indicating a new starting point for the company as it accelerates its move towards high-end products [1]. Core Insights - The performance of the new Surge OS 2.0 has significantly improved, with core technologies such as HyperCore, HyperConnect, and HyperAI being upgraded to enhance user experience across devices [1]. - The Xiaomi 15 series and new AIoT products have generated considerable excitement in the industry, showcasing Xiaomi's commitment to innovation and high-quality offerings [1]. - The launch of the SU7 Ultra prototype car has elevated Xiaomi's brand image in the high-end market, with a competitive price point compared to luxury brands [1]. - Xiaomi plans to increase its R&D investment significantly, with expectations of over 24 billion yuan in 2024 and more than 30 billion yuan in 2025, to further enhance its technological capabilities [1]. - The automotive division is ramping up production, with October deliveries reaching 20,000 units, and the company is on track to meet its annual delivery target of 140,000 units [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiaomi is focusing on high-end product development, with a strong emphasis on AI integration and user experience improvements through its new operating system [1]. Product Innovations - The Xiaomi 15 series features enhanced specifications and competitive pricing, while the introduction of various AIoT products demonstrates the company's commitment to meeting consumer needs [1]. Brand Development - The SU7 Ultra's record-setting performance has bolstered Xiaomi's high-end brand perception, with significant pre-orders indicating strong market interest [1]. Financial Outlook - The company anticipates improved margins in its automotive segment due to increased production efficiency and government subsidies for its core products [1].

行业 乳制品/食品饮料 股价 28.30 元 目标价 35.87 元 （+26.7%） 股票代码 600887 总股本 63.66 亿股 总市值 1801.57 亿元 52 周高/低 31.96 元/21.13 元 每股净资产 8.83 元 主要股东 呼和浩特投资有限责 任公司(8.52%) 盈利摘要 股价表现 截止12月31日财政年度 2022历史 2023历史 2024预测 2025预测 2026预测 收入（百万元） 123,171 126,179 119,458 124,750 129,938 变动（%） 11.4% 2.4% -5.3% 4.4% 4.2% 净利润（百万元） 9,431 10,429 12,009 11,416 12,480 变动（%） 8.3% 10.6% 15.2% -4.9% 9.3% 每股收益（元） 1.48 1.64 1.89 1.79 1.96 市盈率@28.3元(倍) 19.1 17.3 15.0 15.8 14.4 每股派息（元） 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 股息现价比（%） 3.7% 4.2% 4.7% 4.5% 4.9% 来源: 公司资料, 第一上海预测 ...

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 8、semi 全球发布计划；9、德州算力集群建设进度。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|---------------------------------|----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 李京霖 | | | 2024 年 10 月 23 日 星期三 【公司评论】 \nTesla（TSLA.US）： 第三季度业绩前瞻 | | 852-25321957 | | | | | | Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk | | Tesla 2024 第三季度业绩前瞻 | | 李倩 | | | | | 852-25321539 | | | 特斯拉将于北京时间周四早上 5:30 召开 2024 年第三季度财报会。 | | | Chuck.li@firstshanghai.c ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to Deckers Outdoor (DECK) based on its significant financial growth and strategic progress [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved substantial financial growth in Q2 of FY2025, with revenue increasing by 20% to $1.3 billion and diluted earnings per share rising by 39% to $1.59, exceeding consensus expectations of $1.23 [1]. - The strong performance is attributed to the robust market presence of its two major brands, HOKA and UGG, which saw revenue growth of 35% and 13% respectively [1]. - The company has raised its revenue growth forecast for FY2025 to approximately 12%, expecting total revenue to reach $4.8 billion, driven by a projected 24% increase in HOKA sales [1][2]. Financial Overview - For FY2025, the company reported a revenue of $4.891 billion, reflecting a 14% increase from the previous year, with net profit expected to reach $838 million [4]. - The diluted earnings per share are projected to rise to between $5.15 and $5.25, indicating strong confidence in the product mix and market strategy [2][4]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve to between 55% and 55.5%, with an operating profit margin expected around 20% to 20.5% [1]. Brand Performance - HOKA brand revenue surged by 35% to $1.807 billion, while UGG brand revenue increased by 13% to $2.239 billion, both surpassing consensus expectations [1]. - The company’s direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel revenue grew by 22% year-over-year, with HOKA contributing significantly to this growth [1]. - The wholesale channel also saw a 20% global revenue increase, with HOKA and UGG brands driving notable growth in this segment [1]. Strategic Execution - The company continues to invest in product innovation and global market expansion, enhancing brand awareness and market share [3]. - HOKA's new product launches and UGG's seasonal offerings are expected to attract global consumers, supporting ongoing growth [1][3].

特斯拉（TSLA） 更新报告 毛利率与利润大超预期，新车型发布指日可待 三季度收入不及预期，毛利率、净利润超预期：2024 年第三 季度交付量同比增加 6%至 46.3 万台；产量同比增加 9%至 47.0 万台。Q3 总收入为 251.82 亿美元，同比增长 8%，略低 于市场预期。汽车业务收入为 200.16 亿美元；发电与储能业 务收入为 23.76 亿美元，储能系统部署为 6.9 GWh；服务和其 他业务收入为 27.90 亿美元。运营利润为 27.17 亿美元，运营 利润率为 10.8%，为过去一年以来最高值。净利润为 21.67 亿 美元，同比增长 17%，高于市场预期。 汽车毛利率回升至 20.1%，Cybertruck 毛利率首次转正：汽车 业务毛利率为 20.1%，剔除 7.39 亿美元碳排放收入后，NonGAAP 汽车业务毛利率为 17.1%，主要由于：1）本季度产量与 交付恢复同比增长，车均制造成本降至 35,100 美元，为历史 最低水平，所有工厂的单车成本均有下降；2）Cybertruck 毛 利率首次转正；3）推出 Cybertruck 搭载的 FSD Supervised 和智能 ...