证券研究报告 2024 年 09 月 02 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 银行业周报 逆周期调节有望加强，银行股高股息价值延续 相关研究： 1.《2024年度策略：量质均衡，进 市场回顾：银行指数下跌 5.75%，大型银行市场表现居后 而致远》 2023.12.23 2.《地产融资支持加强，助力缓释 资产风险》 2024.01.31 价值延续》 2024.06.21 3.《中期策略：预期渐收敛，配置 4.《LPR全面下调，降息幅度符合 预期》 2024.07.22 5.《行业监管指标发布，上半年业 绩保持稳定》 2024.08.12 近十二个月行业表现 行业评级：增持（维持） 本周（截至 2024.09.01）银行(申万) 指数下跌 5.75%，市场表现弱于沪深 300 指数 5.57 个百分点。大型银行市场表现居后。 资金市场：资金环境明显宽松，存单净融资额较低 本周，央行公开市场操作净投放 5040 亿元。短期资金利率下行，跨月后资 金环境明显转松，周内资金利率下行至政策利率以下。国有大行/股份行/ 城商行/农商行 1 年期同业存单利率分别为 1.97%/1.98%/2.09%/2.04%，较 前值变化 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][6][19] Core Insights - New home sales in August showed a decline both year-on-year and month-on-month, with expectations for policy support during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [2][6] - The sales area of new homes in 30 major cities decreased by 27% year-on-year and 13% month-on-month in August, with the year-on-year decline widening by 10 percentage points [4][8] - Cumulatively, from January to August, the sales area of new homes fell by 34% year-on-year, with a slight narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [4][8] - The performance of the top 100 real estate companies in August showed a year-on-year sales amount decline of 22% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.4% [5][17] - The report highlights that the inventory in core cities has slightly decreased, with a faster absorption rate in first-tier cities [13] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In August, the sales area of new homes in first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities showed year-on-year changes of +6%, -43%, and -15% respectively, with month-on-month changes of -13%, -5%, and -18% [4][8] - The total sales area in August remained at the lowest level since 2020, indicating a gradual decline in the effectiveness of previous policies [4][8] Market Trends - The top 100 real estate companies reported a cumulative sales amount of 26,832 billion yuan from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 38.5% [5][17] - The market concentration is increasing during the downturn, with leading companies showing less decline compared to others [5][17] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality leading real estate companies with strong financing capabilities, land acquisition abilities, and reasonable land reserves [6][19]

证券研究报告 2024 年 09 月 04 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 锂电材料行业周报 上周板块大幅反弹，三元材料 9 月排产稳中略缩，铜箔价格下调 相关研究： | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|----------| | | | | 《上周碳酸锂价格反弹，正极价跌量平，负 | | | 极材料优先去库》 | 20240828 | | 《上周锂源价格再启大跌，产业链价格普遍 | | | 维持弱势》 20240820 | | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 锂电材料行业涨跌幅 对比基准:沪深300累计涨跌幅-右 -30% -15% 0% 15% 30% | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|----------|-----------| | | | | | | | | | | | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | 相对收益 | 0 | -14 | -34 | | 绝对收益 | -2 | -21 | ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 09 月 03 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 医疗服务行业周报 H1 业绩略承压，下半年有望逐季改善 --医疗服务行业周报 8.26-8.30 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|------------| | | | | | | | 相关研究： | | | 1. 《医药外包业绩承压，投融资情 | | | 况有望改善》 | | | | 2024.08.20 | | 2. 《中报密集披露， | ADC CDMO | | 业绩表现靓丽》 | 2024.08.27 | 行业评级：增持 近十二个月行业表现 -60.00% -40.00% -20.00% 0.00% 20.00% 23/9 23/10 23/11 23/12 24/1 24/2 24/3 24/4 24/5 24/6 24/7 24/8 沪深300 医疗服务II | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|------------|------------| | % | 1 个月 | 3 个 ...

证券研究报告 （增持，维持） / 17 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 分析师：顾华昊 | | | | 登记编号：S0500523080001 | | | | 2024年9月3日 | | 基础化工行业 化工周期或已见底，建议关注供需格局改善的 细分领域 核心要点 2 n 化工周期或已见底 中国化工产品价格指数（CCPI）从2021年10月达到高点后，2022年上半年由于俄乌冲突，随着原油价格出现反弹，此后总体呈现下 行的态势，2023年6月触底，此后整体呈现震荡运行。CCPI与原油的价差仍然处于历史底部区间。2024H1，基础化工行业盈利能力有所 提升，销售毛利率18.0%，销售净利率6.5%。2024Q2，销售毛利率18.1%，销售净利率6.6%，环比2024Q1分别提升了0.3、0.2pct，同比 2023Q2分 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 9 月 3 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 食品饮料行业周报 相关研究： | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|--------------| | | | | | | | 1. 《中报预告陆续披露，关注估 | | | 值修复机会》 | 2024.07.17 | | 2. 《食品饮料行业 | - 市场情绪低 | | 迷》 2024.07.30 | | | 3. 《业绩分化明显，关注旺季催 | | | 化》 2024.08.27 | | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|----------|--------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | % 相对收益 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 2.2 -9.5 -14.9 | | 绝对收益 | | 0.2 -17.6 -27.2 | | | | 300 相比 | 分析师：李育文 证书编号：S0500523060001 Tel：021-50295328 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" based on the expectation of demand recovery and limited supply [5][39]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown a slight increase of 0.7%, outperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 0.87 percentage points, with current PE and PB valuations at 14.09 times and 0.77 times, respectively, indicating historical low levels [2][3]. - Supply has slightly contracted with a decrease in production, while demand is showing signs of recovery, particularly as the traditional peak season approaches [3][4]. - Steel prices have rebounded from their lows, leading to an improvement in profit margins for steel mills, although they remain at historically low levels [4][39]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The steel sector's valuation is at a historical low, with PE at 14.09 times and PB at 0.77 times, indicating a potential investment opportunity [2][3]. Supply and Demand - Supply: The operating rate of sampled steel mills is at 76.39%, down 1.06 percentage points week-on-week, with total production of 778.61 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.05% [3]. - Demand: Apparent consumption of major steel products reached 857.58 million tons, up 2.45% week-on-week but down 8.18% year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend [3][27]. - Inventory: Total inventory of major steel products is at 15.631 million tons, down 4.8% week-on-week, suggesting a tightening supply situation [3]. Price and Profitability - Steel prices have increased, with rebar prices rising by 2.25% week-on-week, leading to an improvement in the profit margin of steel mills to 3.91%, up 2.62 percentage points week-on-week [4][39]. Investment Recommendations - Short-term demand is expected to improve as the traditional peak season approaches, while supply remains constrained due to ongoing maintenance at some steel mills. Long-term focus should be on energy-efficient green steel companies following the government's new environmental regulations [5][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [6][28]. Core Insights - The demand for new homes has shown resilience in first-tier cities, while the sales volume of second-hand homes has significantly decreased in key cities [2][6]. - The report highlights that the policy effects are gradually fading after a concentrated release of demand, leading to a notable decline in second-hand home transactions in August [6][28]. - The report emphasizes the need for cities to accelerate new policies to support demand recovery, with potential for further policy enhancements on both demand and supply sides [6][28]. Summary by Sections New and Second-hand Housing Sales Data - In the week of August 26 to September 1, the new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 1.71 million square meters, down 25% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month, with a significant year-on-year decline of 13 percentage points [2][8]. - First-tier cities recorded a new housing transaction area of 560,000 square meters (up 11% year-on-year), while second-tier cities saw a 37% year-on-year decline [2][8]. Key City Transactions - **Shanghai**: Second-hand home transactions fell to 17,900 units in August, down 12% month-on-month, while new home daily transactions averaged 337 units, down 8.5% year-on-year [3][15]. - **Guangzhou**: Second-hand home transactions decreased by 9.7% week-on-week, marking the largest decline in August, while new home transactions averaged 165 units daily, up 51% year-on-year [3][18]. - **Shenzhen**: New home transactions continued to decline, with daily second-hand home transactions averaging 126 units, down 1% month-on-month [3][22]. - **Beijing**: Second-hand home transactions increased to an average of 548 units daily, up 50% year-on-year, while new home transactions grew by 20% [3][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading quality real estate companies with strong financing channels, land acquisition capabilities, and reasonable land reserves, maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry [6][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry [19] Core Insights - The defense and military industry index rose by 1.2% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.4% [5][8] - Since the beginning of 2024, the defense and military industry index has declined by 14.4%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 11.2 percentage points [5][8] - As of August 30, 2024, the defense and military industry PE (TTM) is 45.4 times, positioned at the 9.8 percentile since 2012; the PB (LF) is approximately 2.5 times, at the 18.7 percentile since 2012 [5][8] Summary by Sections Market Review - The defense and military industry index increased by 1.2% from August 26 to August 30, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.4% [5][8] - The PE (TTM) of the defense and military industry is 45.4 times, and the PB (LF) is about 2.5 times as of August 30, 2024 [5][8] C919 Aircraft Development - China International Airlines and China Southern Airlines received their first C919 aircraft, marking a significant step in the delivery of domestically produced large aircraft [6] - The C919 aircraft has a current domestic production rate of approximately 60%, with expectations for gradual increases due to supportive policies and improved domestic technology [19] Investment Recommendations - The successful commercial operation and capacity enhancement of the C919 aircraft signify a breakthrough in Chinese aviation technology, creating substantial market opportunities for the entire aviation supply chain [19] - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in upstream raw materials, midstream components, and downstream assembly related to the large aircraft industry [19]

证券研究报告 2024 年 09 月 02 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 机械行业周报 8 月我国 PMI 为 49.1%，环比下降 0.3 个百分点 ——机械行业周报（08.26~09.01） 相关研究： 1.《20240819湘财证券-机械行业：7 月我国金切机床产量约5.4万台，同 比增长8.0%》 2.《20240826湘财证券-机械行业： 7月我国新增光伏装机约21.0GW， 同比增长12.3%》 行业评级：增持 近十二个月行业表现 机械设备(申万) 沪深300 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|--------------------|----------|------------------| | | | | | | 23/09 23/11 | 24/01 24/03 | 24/05 | 24/07 | | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | 相对收益 | | | -1.9 -5.9 -8.4 | | 绝对收益 | | | -4.8 -13.2 -20.8 | | | 注：相对收益 ...