Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The adjustment of medical insurance and commercial insurance directories will enter the price negotiation stage, and attention should be paid to the progress of subsequent stages [7] - The market performance of the traditional Chinese medicine sector has shown a decline, with the TCM index dropping by 2.13% last week [3][12] - The demand for traditional Chinese medicinal materials remains relatively stable, while supply has increased due to the new harvest, leading to a slight decrease in price indices [6] Market Performance - The traditional Chinese medicine sector reported a decline of 2.13%, while the overall pharmaceutical sector fell by 2.07% [3][12] - The performance of individual companies varied, with leading companies including Weikang Pharmaceutical and Wanbangde, while companies like Jiuzhitang and Xintian Pharmaceutical lagged behind [4] Valuation - The TCM sector's PE (ttm) is 27.92X, down by 0.6X week-on-week, with a one-year maximum of 30.26X and a minimum of 22.85X [5] - The PB (lf) stands at 2.36X, also down by 0.06X week-on-week, with a one-year maximum of 2.65X and a minimum of 2.02X [5] Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. Price governance, emphasizing the importance of price reduction and market share for competitive products [8][9] 2. Consumption recovery, driven by macroeconomic improvement and increased health awareness among the aging population [10] 3. State-owned enterprise reform, which presents investment opportunities through performance enhancement [10] - Recommended stocks include Zhaoli Pharmaceutical, Pizaihuang, and Shouxiangu [10]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10][46] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry experienced a significant decline of 8.06% this week, underperforming the benchmark (CSI 300) by 7.62 percentage points [5][12] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) decreased from 95.79x to 88.3x, currently at the 94.2% historical percentile [5][12] - Supply of praseodymium and neodymium is expected to slightly increase due to stable operations of separation enterprises and increased output from recycling companies, while demand remains stable with expectations of increased end-user consumption in October [7][45] - The market is anticipated to remain in a stalemate with overall rare earth prices stabilizing [7][45] Market Performance - Over the past month, the industry has shown a relative return of -5%, a 3-month return of 37%, and a 12-month return of 108% [4] - Absolute returns for the same periods are 1%, 55%, and 149% respectively [4] Price Trends - Prices for light rare earth concentrates have mostly rebounded, while medium and heavy rare earth prices remain weak [9][14] - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.7% to 571,000 CNY/ton, and the metal price decreased by 0.43% to 700,000 CNY/ton [19][22] - The price of neodymium-iron-boron blanks saw a slight increase of 0.7% to 144.5 CNY/kg [41] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply is slightly increasing due to stable operations in the praseodymium and neodymium segment, while demand is supported by stable orders from major magnetic material manufacturers [7][45] - The demand from downstream sectors such as new energy vehicles is showing marginal decline, while industrial trends remain positive [7][45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a cautious approach due to potential valuation adjustments from suppressed risk appetite, while focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies and downstream magnetic material companies with strong customer structures and growth potential [10][46][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Insights - The basic chemical industry experienced a weekly decline of 1.33% from September 15 to September 19, 2025, ranking 20th among all Shenwan first-level industries [5][11] - The organic silicon price saw a slight increase, with the DMC intermediate price reaching 11,000 CNY/ton, up 1.9% from the previous week, supported by strong pre-sale orders and rising raw material costs [6][12] - The report suggests focusing on specific sectors within the basic chemical industry, including refrigerants constrained by quotas, industries benefiting from "anti-involution" trends like titanium dioxide, and sectors driven by domestic demand such as phosphate fertilizers and civil explosives [8][27] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry had a weekly decline of 1.33% from September 15 to September 19, 2025, with the top five gaining stocks being Kaimeite Gases, Guangdong Hongda, Jinghua New Materials, *ST Yatai, and Xinghua New Materials, while the top five losing stocks included Jianbang Co., Runyang Technology, Wankai New Materials, Jiaao Environmental Protection, and Changhua Chemical [5][11] Subsector - Organic Silicon - The organic silicon price increased slightly, with the DMC intermediate price at 11,000 CNY/ton as of September 19, 2025, reflecting a 1.9% rise from the previous week. This increase is attributed to strong pre-sale orders and rising costs of raw materials, particularly metallic silicon [6][12] - The operating rate and production of organic silicon intermediates showed significant month-on-month increases in August [12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to the following sectors in the basic chemical industry: 1) refrigerants affected by quota constraints (e.g., Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group); 2) industries benefiting from "anti-involution," such as titanium dioxide (e.g., Longbai Group); 3) domestic demand-driven sectors that can mitigate tariff impacts, such as phosphate fertilizers (e.g., Yuntianhua) and civil explosives (e.g., Guangdong Hongda) [8][27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6][8][32] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the strengthening of credit support in the service consumption sector, with the People's Bank of China implementing structural monetary policies to guide financial institutions in increasing credit allocation to key service consumption areas [6][27][30] - A total of 500 billion yuan has been allocated for "service consumption and elderly re-loans" to support credit for sectors such as accommodation, catering, cultural and entertainment, education, resident services, tourism, and elderly care [6][27][30] - The report indicates that as of the end of July, the loan balance in key service consumption areas reached 2.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [6][29][30] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The banking index fell by 4.21% during the period from September 15 to September 21, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.77 percentage points [10] - Among different bank types, rural commercial banks showed relatively better performance [10] 2. Funding Market - The central bank's net injection in the open market was 1.1923 trillion yuan, indicating a tightening of the funding environment [17] - The average issuance rates for 1-year interbank certificates of deposit for various bank types showed slight changes, with state-owned banks at 1.67% [20] 3. Industry and Company Dynamics - The report emphasizes the collaborative efforts between the People's Bank of China and local business departments to address the financial needs of private and small to medium-sized enterprises in the service consumption sector [30] - Financial institutions have reported nearly 60 billion yuan in applications for "service consumption and elderly re-loans" [29] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with the ongoing implementation of fiscal interest subsidies, bank credit demand is expected to improve, and the performance of bank stocks is anticipated to remain relatively stable [8][32] - Specific banks recommended for investment include CITIC Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Chengdu Bank, and others, highlighting their potential for absolute return investment value [8][32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3][8]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant recovery in new and second-hand housing transactions in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen following recent policy adjustments [6][8]. - The report notes that the Shanghai property tax policy has been optimized, with first-time homebuyers exempt from property tax and second-home buyers benefiting from a threshold on taxable area [5]. - The report anticipates a new round of policy announcements by the end of September, which could further influence the real estate market [8]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - Over the past month, the real estate sector has shown a relative return of -1% compared to the CSI 300 index, while absolute returns were 7% [4]. - In the last 12 months, the absolute return for the real estate sector was 41% [4]. Transaction Data - In Beijing, the average daily transaction for second-hand homes increased by 58% year-on-year, while new homes saw an 18% increase [6]. - Shanghai experienced a 72% year-on-year increase in second-hand home transactions and an 86% increase in new home transactions [6]. - Shenzhen reported a 121% year-on-year increase in second-hand home transactions and a 23% increase in new home transactions [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and land reserves in core cities, such as Poly Developments [8]. - It also recommends monitoring leading intermediary firms that may benefit from an increase in second-hand home transactions, such as Wo Ai Wo Jia [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry experienced a decline of 2.53% from September 14 to September 19, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.09 percentage points [5][10] - The overall valuation of the food and beverage industry is at a relatively low level, with a PE ratio of 22X, ranking 22nd among Shenwan's primary industries [5][15] - In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [6][7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry underperformed the market, with a relative return of -5.3% over one month, -12.5% over three months, and -20.0% over twelve months [4] - The industry saw an absolute return of 1.3% over one month, 4.6% over three months, and 20.8% over twelve months [4] Valuation Analysis - As of September 19, 2025, the food and beverage industry's PE ratio is 22X, with sub-industries like other alcoholic beverages at 57X, health products at 44X, and snacks at 35X, while white liquor is at 19X, pre-processed foods at 21X, and beer at 24X [5][15] Consumer Demand - The retail sales of beverages increased by 2.8% year-on-year in August, while tobacco and alcohol sales decreased by 2.3% [6] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have introduced measures to expand service consumption, which may positively impact the food and beverage sector [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable demand and strong risk resistance, as well as those actively innovating in new products, channels, and consumption scenarios [8][43] - Key companies to watch include New Dairy, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, Andeli, Yanjinpuzi, and Qingdao Beer [8][43]

证券研究报告 2025 年 9 月 21 日 湘财证券研究所 宏观研究 宏观大类资产周报 国内权益小幅调整，商品涨跌不一 相关研究： | 1. | 《国内权益上涨，资金利率 | | --- | --- | | 下行》 | 2025.07.11 | | 2. | 《创业板领涨，贵金属回 | | 调》 | 2025.08.16 | | 3. | 《科创领涨，金价继续攀 | | 升》 | 2025.09.12 | 分析师：何超 证书编号： S0500521070002 Tel：021-50295325 Email： hechao@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 国内权益小幅调整 根据 Wind 数据，9 月 15 日~ 9 月 19 日，国内权益市场小幅调整，创业 板表现相对较好。上证指数周跌 1.30%、深证成指周涨 1.14%，创业板 周涨 2.34%，科创 50 周涨 1.84%。A 股上周在运行到前高附近又面临调 整压力，机器人板块面临较大回撤，消息面是特斯拉发推辟谣百万订 单。我们认为，在政策引导慢牛背景下，预计下周指数仍以震荡为主， 其中一些被 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market is currently experiencing a "slow bull" trend, supported by new policies and investment strategies, with expectations of a gradual upward movement in September 2025 [7][28]. - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a decline in fixed asset investment and retail sales, which may lead to increased market expectations for favorable policy interventions [6][25]. Market Performance - During the week of September 15-19, 2025, A-share indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.30% and the ChiNext Index up 2.34%, indicating volatility in the market [3][9]. - The largest weekly fluctuation was observed in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index, which had a volatility of 5.95% [9]. Sector Analysis - Among the 31 first-level industries, coal and electric equipment sectors performed well, with weekly gains of 3.51% and 3.07% respectively, while banking and non-ferrous metals sectors saw declines of -4.21% and -4.02% [4][19]. - In the second-level industry analysis, home appliance components and engineering machinery led with weekly gains of 11.35% and 6.10%, while small metals and marine equipment sectors faced significant declines of -7.66% and -6.99% [5][22]. Macroeconomic Data - Fixed asset investment growth continued to decline, with an August year-on-year growth rate of 0.50%, driven by decreases in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments [6][25]. - Retail sales growth also weakened, with August's year-on-year growth at 3.40%, leading to a cumulative growth rate of 4.60%, the lowest level in 2025 [26][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors related to anti-involution, technology (especially AI), and environmental protection, as these areas are expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and market trends [7][28].

Group 1: ETF Market Overview - As of September 12, 2025, there are 1,292 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with a total asset management scale of 52,387.73 billion [2] - The breakdown of ETFs includes 1,029 stock ETFs (35,315.17 billion), 39 bond ETFs (5,718.88 billion), 27 money market ETFs (1,564.76 billion), 17 commodity ETFs (1,611.53 billion), 173 cross-border ETFs (8,120.58 billion), and 6 unlisted ETFs (52.32 billion) [2] - In the week from September 8 to September 12, 2025, four new stock ETFs were launched, including two fintech-themed ETFs, with a total issuance scale of 5.682 billion [3][4] Group 2: ETF Performance Analysis - The median weekly return for stock ETFs was 1.97%, with the best-performing ETF being the China United Asset Management's Sci-Tech Chip Design ETF, which rose by 10.14% [3][4] - Conversely, the worst performer was the Guotai Junan Sci-Tech Innovation Drug ETF, which fell by 3.12% [4] - The average share change for stock ETFs was an increase of 6.6576 million shares, with the chemical ETF seeing the largest increase of 2.968 billion shares [4] Group 3: PB-ROE Framework and ETF Rotation Strategy - The PB-ROE framework categorizes industries into six quadrants, focusing on high PB and high ROE industries in the third quadrant and low PB and medium ROE industries in the fifth quadrant [5] - Backtesting from 2017 to February 2024 shows that only the third and fifth quadrants achieved excess returns, with annualized excess returns of 4.27% and 1.55%, respectively [5] - The combined PB-ROE rotation strategy yielded an annualized return of 11.93% and an annualized excess return of 13.22% [6] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the automotive, transportation, and public utilities sectors, corresponding to their respective industry ETFs [8]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.00%–4.25%, which aligns with market expectations[4] - The decision was passed with 11 votes in favor and 1 against, with the dissenting vote advocating for a 50 basis point cut[9] - Most officials anticipate two more rate cuts within the year, according to the updated dot plot[9] Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Outlook - Deteriorating employment data is the primary reason for the rate cut, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000[4] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, indicating a severe slowdown in the labor market[4] - The latest CPI and PPI data show inflation levels are manageable, with August CPI rising by 2.9% year-on-year, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[14] Group 3: Market Implications - The rate cut is expected to benefit the Hong Kong stock market, particularly technology stocks, due to increased liquidity from the Fed's actions[6] - A decline in U.S. Treasury yields may lead to a limited increase in foreign investment in Chinese bonds, as the yield gap remains inverted[21] - Gold prices are likely to rise further, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3,690 per ounce as of September 16, 2025, benefiting from the Fed's dovish stance[21] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in gold and Hong Kong stocks following the Fed's rate cut[7] - The potential for further easing in China's monetary policy is anticipated, following the Fed's actions[23] Group 5: Risks - Risks include potential escalation of U.S.-China tariffs, domestic monetary policy not meeting expectations, and prolonged geopolitical conflicts[24]