行业评级：买入（维持） 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 16 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 机械行业周报 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -3.3 -5.2 16.5 绝对收益 -2.8 5.0 33.1 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/09 机械设备(申万) 沪深300 关注锂电专用设备、机床工具、机器人 相关研究： 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：轩鹏程 证书编号：S0500521070003 Tel：(8621) 50295321 Email：xuanpc@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 ——机械行业周报（2025.11.10~2025.11.14） 核心要点： ❑ 锂电专用设备：10 月我国新能源汽车销量同比增长 19.9% 根据 Wind 数据，2025 年 10 月，我国新能源汽车销量约 171.5 万 辆，同比增长 19.9%，1-10 月我国新能源汽车总销量约 1294.3 万辆， 同比增长 32.7% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry [2] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry experienced a slight decline of 0.56% from November 3 to November 7, while the overall market indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.40% [5][10] - The industry valuation is currently at a low level, with a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 22X as of November 14, 2025, ranking 23rd among Shenwan's primary industries [5][15] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2% in October, indicating a recovery in consumer sentiment, particularly in service consumption [6][8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector outperformed the broader market, with a 2.82% increase, ranking 6th out of 31 sectors [5][10] - Sub-sectors such as pre-processed foods, baked goods, and dairy products saw increases of 6.93%, 5.07%, and 4.33% respectively [5][10] Valuation Metrics - The food and beverage industry's PE ratio is 22X, with other alcoholic beverages at 58X, health products at 38X, and snacks at 36X, while white spirits, beer, and pre-processed foods have lower valuations at 20X, 23X, and 23X respectively [15] Consumer Trends - The CPI's increase is attributed to policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and the impact of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [6] - Food prices saw a decline of 2.9% year-on-year, with dairy prices down by 1.7% and alcoholic beverages down by 2.0% [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable demand and strong risk resilience, as well as those innovating in new products, channels, and consumption scenarios [8][42] - Recommended companies include New Dairy, Andeli, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Yanjinpuzi [8][42]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a rising trend in influenza activity, suggesting a structural opportunity in the flu vaccine market. It emphasizes the importance of focusing on innovative vaccines and companies with differentiated pipelines to capture alpha opportunities in a competitive landscape [8][9][27]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Performance - Over the past twelve months, the vaccine sector has shown a relative performance of -25% compared to the CSI 300 index, with an absolute return of -5% [3][4]. - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is reported at 101.87X, with a PB (lf) of 1.99X, indicating a slight increase in valuation metrics [7][20]. Domestic and International Vaccine Dynamics - Recent approvals for clinical trials include various vaccines from companies like Zhifei Biological Products and CanSino, indicating ongoing innovation in the sector [4][8]. - The National Influenza Center reported an increase in flu cases, with 621 outbreaks reported, suggesting a potential uptick in demand for flu vaccines [4][8]. Market Review - The vaccine sector experienced a 3% increase in the last week, reflecting a moderate performance compared to other pharmaceutical segments [5][6]. - Companies such as Jindike and Hualan Biologicals showed strong performance, while others like Wantai and Zhifei Biologicals lagged behind [6][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the vaccine industry is currently under pressure, with a need for companies to focus on innovation and international expansion. It recommends monitoring companies with high technical barriers and differentiated pipelines [8][9][27]. - Specific companies to watch include CanSino for its innovative capabilities and Kanghua Biologicals for its stable demand products [9][27].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][10] Core Views - Credit recovery is pending the effectiveness of policies, with social financing growth declining by 0.2 percentage points to 8.5% in October, indicating a continued downward trend [6][12] - The demand for loans from residents and medium to long-term corporate loans remains weak, and the impact of policy tools on credit has yet to be fully realized [6][12] - The total amount and structure of credit data in October are weak, but monetary easing support is still expected, enhancing the relative advantage of high-dividend banks [9][32] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - Relative return over the past 12 months shows a 5.4% increase in 1 month, a decrease of 13.7% in 3 months, and a 4.2% increase in 12 months [5] - Absolute return indicates a 7.7% increase in 1 month, a decrease of 1.1% in 3 months, and an 18.5% increase in 12 months [5] Credit Market Analysis - In October, social financing increased by 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan, primarily due to a significant drop in government bond financing [6][12] - The new loans from financial institutions amounted to 220 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan, reflecting weak demand in the real estate market [7][15] - Policy financial tools have been implemented but their effect on credit demand remains insufficient, with expectations for continued monetary policy support if credit demand weakens further [16][32] Deposit Trends - In October, M1 grew by 6.2% and M2 by 8.2%, with both growth rates declining compared to previous values [8][24] - New RMB deposits increased by 610 billion yuan, with fiscal deposits showing a significant increase, indicating a slowdown in fiscal spending [27][24] - Non-bank institutions saw a significant increase in deposits, suggesting a shift of funds towards wealth management products [27][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned banks for stable high-dividend investment opportunities and potential valuation recovery for joint-stock and regional banks as economic conditions improve [9][32] - Recommended banks include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, CITIC Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and Suzhou Bank [9][32]

Group 1 - The report highlights the launch of LPDDR5X by Changxin Storage, which is expected to enhance the domestic storage industry chain [2][3] - LPDDR5X offers significant improvements in capacity, speed, and power consumption, with a maximum speed of 10667Mbps, a 66% increase over the previous generation, and a 30% reduction in power consumption [2][3] - The product's innovative uPoP® packaging meets the demand for lighter and thinner mobile flagship phones, optimizing user experience and breaking performance bottlenecks [2][3] Group 2 - The report indicates that Changxin's LPDDR5X product launch is synchronized with international competitors, achieving leading speed levels and a thickness of only 0.58mm, positioning it among the thinnest in the industry [3] - The report expresses optimism about the potential for Changxin to gain a larger share in the global DRAM market, reflecting the technological advancements of domestic storage manufacturers [3] - Investment opportunities are identified in AI infrastructure, end-side SOC, foldable smartphone supply chains, and the storage industry chain, maintaining an "overweight" rating for the electronics sector [3]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank emphasizes maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions and improving the execution and transmission of monetary policy[2] - The report highlights the need for counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to strengthen economic recovery[3] - The central bank aims to optimize monetary policy intermediate variables and gradually reduce focus on quantitative targets, suggesting that loan growth may be slightly lower than nominal economic growth[4] Group 2: External Economic Factors - The report expresses caution regarding external uncertainties, noting challenges in international economic and trade order, and concerns about the diminishing effects of "export grabbing" and "import grabbing"[3] - High tariffs are expected to increase trade costs and create policy uncertainties that may suppress long-term investment and supply chain decisions, indicating a structural shift in global trade growth trends[3][12] Group 3: Interest Rate Management - The central bank stresses the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships across various dimensions, transitioning from setting a single price to managing a system[7][18] - The report identifies five key interest rate relationships that are crucial for effective monetary policy transmission, including the relationship between central bank policy rates and market rates[18][20] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The central bank's commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy is expected to support interest-sensitive assets and sectors backed by clear policy support, such as technology innovation and green industries[21] - The likelihood of significant policy easing measures, such as rate cuts, is low for the remainder of the year, with more substantial easing expected to be deferred until early 2026[21][22] Group 5: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, unexpected policy changes, and disturbances in the global economy[23]

Group 1: Inflation Data - In October, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of food items in CPI recorded a decline of -2.9%, narrowing the drop by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous value[3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, showed a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[3] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI decreased by -2.1% year-on-year in October, improving by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[16] - From July to October, the PPI year-on-year declines were -3.6%, -2.9%, -2.3%, and -2.1%, indicating a trend of monthly recovery[4] - The overall industrial product PPI decreased by -2.7% from January to October[16] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The rise in both CPI and the narrowing decline in PPI suggest a potential need for further stimulus policies to boost domestic demand and sustain inflation recovery[5] - The PPI is expected to continue to recover, supported by policies aimed at reducing internal competition and improving upstream prices[5] - Monitoring marginal changes in indicators such as food prices, oil prices, and coal prices is recommended[5] Group 4: Risks - Risks include potential underperformance in consumer recovery, unexpected economic recession, and unforeseen impacts from tariffs on related industries[20]

Group 1: Machinery Industry - In October 2025, the total sales of excavators in China increased by 7.8% year-on-year, with domestic sales and exports growing by 2.4% and 12.9% respectively. From January to October, total excavator sales rose by 17.0%, with domestic sales and exports increasing by 19.6% and 14.4% respectively [2] - In October, the total sales of loaders in China grew by 27.7% year-on-year, with domestic sales and exports increasing by 33.2% and 22.6% respectively. From January to October, total loader sales increased by 15.8%, with domestic sales and exports rising by 21.8% and 9.7% respectively [2] - The average working hours for major engineering machinery products in October were 80.9 hours, a decrease of 9.0% year-on-year. However, the decline in working hours for excavators and loaders narrowed, indicating a potential for continued growth in domestic sales of earth-moving machinery [2] Group 2: Robotics Industry - Xiaopeng Motors launched a new generation humanoid robot, IRON, featuring a unique bionic design with a skeletal structure, muscle lines, and flexible skin for realistic touch experiences. The robot has 22 degrees of freedom for precise movements [3] - Tesla announced that its third-generation humanoid robot production line will be established next year, with an expected cost of less than $20,000 per unit once mass production begins. Tesla's humanoid robot project aims to deliver 1 million units [4] - UBTECH has secured a contract worth 159 million yuan for humanoid robots, with the Walker S2 model expected to be delivered by the end of November. UBTECH's Walker series has received over 789 million yuan in orders this year [4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The manufacturing PMI in China fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49.0% in October, with various sub-indices showing declines due to factors such as pre-holiday demand release and a complex international environment. However, domestic policies and measures are expected to gradually improve manufacturing profitability and overall demand for machinery [5] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the machinery industry, recommending companies that benefit from domestic and international demand, such as Liugong, Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Hengli Hydraulic. It also highlights the growth potential in the humanoid robotics sector, recommending companies like UBTECH, Estun, and Harmonic Drive [5]

Core Insights - The Chinese medicine sector showed a positive performance with an increase of 0.81% last week, while the overall pharmaceutical sector declined by 2.4% [2] - The valuation metrics for the Chinese medicine sector are as follows: PE (ttm) at 28.11X and PB (lf) at 2.37X, indicating a slight increase from the previous week [3][5] - The recent price index for traditional Chinese medicine materials has risen by 0.2%, with 9 categories increasing in price and 3 categories decreasing [6] Industry Analysis - The fourth batch of national procurement for traditional Chinese medicine includes 90 varieties, which presents both challenges and opportunities for production companies [7] - The investment recommendation maintains an "overweight" rating for the industry, focusing on three main lines: price governance, consumption recovery, and state-owned enterprise reform [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The first investment line emphasizes price governance, suggesting to monitor price reductions and market share in the context of procurement and medical insurance negotiations [8] - The second line focuses on consumption recovery, driven by macroeconomic improvement and an aging population, favoring companies with strong brand and product advantages [9] - The third line highlights opportunities arising from state-owned enterprise reforms, particularly in companies with strong R&D capabilities and unique products [9] Company Performance - Among the companies in the Chinese medicine sector, notable performers include ST Huhuluwa, Darentang, and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, while underperformers include Wanbangde and Qidi Pharmaceutical [2]

Macro Strategy - In October, China's exports showed a year-on-year decline of -1.10%, marking the first negative growth since March 2025, which affected the cumulative year-on-year growth rate, decreasing from 6.10% in September to 5.30% in October. This decline is attributed to a high base in October 2024 and a temporary escalation in trade conflicts between China and the US in early October 2025 [3][4]. Market Overview - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, A-share indices experienced wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.08% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.65%. The market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend with wide fluctuations in November due to reduced short-term trade conflict risks between China and the US [4][5]. - Among the 31 first-level industries, the top performers were electric equipment and coal, with weekly increases of 4.98% and 4.52%, respectively. Conversely, the beauty care and computer sectors saw declines of -3.10% and -2.54% [6][7]. North Exchange Market - As of November 7, 2025, the North Exchange had 282 listed stocks, with an average total market value of 908.24 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.24% increase from the previous week. The liquidity decreased, with average trading volume dropping by 17.23% [11][12]. - The highest weekly gain was recorded by Danna Biological, which surged by 377.78% in its first week of trading, while the largest decline was seen in Beiyikang, which fell by 12.35% [13]. Vaccine Industry - The vaccine industry is experiencing structural differentiation, with companies like Kangtai Biological and Zhonghui Biological making significant advancements in vaccine development for specific populations, such as infants and pregnant women. The updated technical guidelines emphasize the importance of vaccination for high-risk groups [17][21]. - The vaccine sector's performance remains under pressure, with a year-to-date decline of -1.57%. The industry is focusing on innovation and international expansion to navigate current challenges [19][21]. - The vaccine sector's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is currently at 99.07X, reflecting a decrease of 4.97X from the previous week, while the price-to-book ratio (PB) remains stable at 1.94X [20]. Investment Recommendations - The vaccine industry is advised to focus on innovation and international markets, as the current market conditions present challenges due to supply-demand imbalances and intense competition. Companies with strong technological capabilities and differentiated product lines are recommended for investment [21][23].