Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The retail sector saw a slight increase of 0.16% last week, closing at 2462.73 points, ranking 24th among Shenwan's primary industries, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.79 percentage points [2][7] - The current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for the retail sector is 52.17X, with a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 2.09X, indicating a slight increase in valuation metrics compared to the previous week [3][16][17] - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,763 billion yuan, growing by 3.0% year-on-year, with a year-to-date growth of 3.5% [4][19] - The offline retail landscape showed varied performance, with convenience stores and supermarkets leading growth, while department stores and specialty stores lagged [4][20] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The retail sector's performance over the last month shows a relative return of 2.8%, a 3-month return of 6.0%, but a 12-month decline of 9.3% [2] - The sector's absolute returns were 5.7% over the last month, 7.4% over the last three months, and 7.7% over the last year [2] Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio for the retail sector is currently at 52.17X, with a maximum of 52.76X and a minimum of 31.27X over the past year [3][16] - The PB ratio stands at 2.09X, with a maximum of 2.12X and a minimum of 1.52X in the last year [3][17] Industry Dynamics - The November retail sales data indicates a 2.8% year-on-year growth in goods retail, with dining revenue increasing by 4.0% [4][19] - Online retail sales grew by 9.1% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the overall retail sales growth [20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the retail sector, highlighting opportunities in offline chain supermarkets, high-end domestic beauty brands, and sectors related to emotional consumption [5][21][23]

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the medical consumables sector is "Overweight" (maintained) [2][5] Core Insights - The medical consumables sector saw a slight increase of 0.08% last week, while the broader pharmaceutical and biological sector decreased by 0.18% [2][4] - The current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for the medical consumables sector is 35.44X, with a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 2.55X, indicating a slight increase in valuation metrics compared to the previous week [3][14][16] - The sixth batch of national high-value medical consumables procurement has officially started, with a focus on optimizing selection rules to ensure long-term stability in the industry [4][17] Industry Dynamics and Key Announcements - The sixth batch of national procurement for high-value medical consumables was launched on December 22, 2025, with specific demand quantities for various products outlined [4][17] - The procurement aims to provide opportunities for domestic products to gain market share and replace imports, particularly in drug-coated balloons and urological intervention consumables [4][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong cost control and innovation capabilities, particularly in high-value consumables such as interventional and electrophysiological products [5][21] - Companies like Microelectrophysiology and Maipu Medical are highlighted for their rich product lines and high innovation levels, while companies like Weigao Orthopedics are noted for their improving performance [5][21]

Macro Environment Outlook - The global economy is in a recovery phase but remains uncertain, with the IMF predicting a decline in global economic growth from 3.2% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026 [15] - Developed economies are expected to maintain a growth rate of 1.6% in 2026, while emerging markets and developing countries will see a decrease from 4.2% to 4.0% [15] - China's economic growth is projected to slow from 4.8% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026, reflecting a broader trend of economic deceleration [15] Equity Market Outlook - The equity market is anticipated to exhibit a "slow bull" structure in 2026, characterized by interwoven themes of technological growth, anti-involution, consumption, and low-volatility dividends [6][49] - Long-term capital is expected to continue entering the market, with liquidity remaining moderately loose for most of the time [6][49] - The A-share market has shown a steady upward trend in 2025, with significant contributions from the technology sector and policies promoting cyclical stocks [40][41] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in 2026, with limited downward space for yields, particularly in the 10-year government bond yield projected to fluctuate between 2.0% and 1.5% [6][7] - The overall economic fundamentals are not expected to improve significantly in the short term, limiting the upward pressure on interest rates [6][7] - Investment strategies in the bond market should shift from "buy and hold" to trading to capture short-term opportunities [6][7] Commodity Market Outlook - The outlook for commodities in 2026 remains positive, particularly for gold and copper, driven by expectations of a shift in U.S. monetary policy and a global central bank gold-buying trend [6][7] - The anticipated weakening of the U.S. dollar is also expected to benefit emerging market assets [20] Investment Strategy - The recommended asset allocation for 2026 prioritizes equities over commodities, followed by bonds and cash [6][7] - The report suggests that insurance capital will continue to increase its equity investments, with an estimated inflow of around 2 trillion yuan into the A-share market in 2026 [49][50]

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 25 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 食品饮料行业点评 深加工是中国乳业的发展方向 ——对欧盟乳制品征收反补贴政策点评 相关研究： | 1.《品类创新扬帆，穿越液奶周期 | | | --- | --- | | ——伊利股份2026年经销商大会 | | | 点评》 | 2025.12.19 | | 2.《妙可蓝多：品牌破圈，国产替 | | | 代加速》 | 2025.11.28 | | 3.《板块情绪回暖，估值极具性价 | | | 比》 | 2025.11.24 | 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 | 相对收益 | -3.8% | 0.3% | -22.9% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对收益 | 4.4% | 1.4% | -13.7% | | | | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 | | 分析师：张弛 证书编号：S0500525110001 Tel：17621838100 Email：zc08241@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 ❑ 首先利好 ...

Group 1: Machinery Industry - In November 2025, sales of construction machinery showed mixed results, with 8 products experiencing year-on-year growth while 4 declined, particularly driven by strong demand for cranes, which saw sales growth of 16.6% for truck cranes, 44.6% for all-terrain cranes, and 66.2% for crawler cranes, largely due to wind power installations and electrification trends [2][3] - Excavator sales in November increased by 13.9% year-on-year, with domestic sales up 9.1% and exports up 18.8%, attributed to recovering demand in Europe and the US, as well as sustained high demand in mining [2][3] - The loader segment also saw significant growth, with total sales up 32.1% year-on-year, driven by replacement demand and electrification, with electric loader penetration reaching approximately 25.7% in November [2][3] - Forklift sales rose by 14.1% year-on-year in November, with domestic sales increasing by 23.9%, primarily due to equipment upgrades and electrification [3] - The outlook for the machinery industry remains positive, with expectations of continued growth in domestic sales driven by major projects and overseas demand from emerging markets and mineral-rich countries [2][3] Group 2: Machine Tool Sector - In November 2025, the production of metal cutting machine tools was approximately 71,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, while cumulative production from January to November reached 783,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [4][5] - The production of metal forming machine tools in November was about 15,000 units, up 7.1% year-on-year, with cumulative production for the year at 161,000 units, also showing a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [4][5] - Fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector grew by 1.9% year-on-year, maintaining positive growth, while manufacturing profits increased by 7.7% year-on-year, although the growth rate has slowed [5] Group 3: Robotics Industry - Industrial robot production in November 2025 reached approximately 70,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, with cumulative production from January to November at 674,000 units, up 29.2% [5] - Strategic partnerships in the robotics sector are emerging, such as the collaboration between UBTECH and Texas Instruments, which aims to enhance the deployment of humanoid robots in manufacturing [5] - The introduction of innovative humanoid robots, such as the TRON 2 by Zhijidongli, showcases advancements in modular design and adaptability for various operational tasks [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The manufacturing PMI in November rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2%, indicating a recovery in production and new orders, driven by the end of the National Day holiday effects and positive outcomes from US-China trade talks [6] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the machinery sector, highlighting the potential for sustained growth in the construction machinery segment and the burgeoning humanoid robotics market [6]

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a decline of 0.14% this week, ranking 22nd among the 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index [2] - The medical services sub-sector showed a positive performance with a 0.55% increase, while the chemical pharmaceuticals sub-sector declined by 1.74% [2] Industry Performance - The medical services sector's PE (ttm) is 31.74X, and PB (lf) is 3.20X, with a slight increase in both metrics compared to the previous week [5] - Notable performers in the medical services sector include Meinian Health (+24.1%) and Baihua Medicine (+8.8%), while underperformers include Nanhua Biology (-6.5%) and Meidisi (-5.2%) [4] Legislative Impact - The U.S. 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) has passed, incorporating the revised Biotech Safety Act, which limits federal contracts with certain biotechnology providers, potentially easing immediate impacts on the domestic biopharmaceutical industry [6][7] - The revised NDAA does not directly name specific companies, which may reduce the immediate shock to the industry [7] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the medical services sector, highlighting high-growth opportunities in ADC CDMO and peptide CDMO companies like WuXi AppTec and Haoyuan Pharmaceutical [8] - It also suggests focusing on companies with expected improvements in profitability, such as Aier Eye Hospital and Dian Diagnostics [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Insights - The retail sector experienced a significant increase of 6.66% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.94 percentage points [5][10] - The current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for the retail sector is 52X, which is a 3.25 percentage point increase from the previous week, with a one-year range of 31.27X to 52X [6][17] - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port and the implementation of a new customs supervision system are expected to create new growth opportunities for the retail sector, particularly through the expansion of the "zero tariff" product catalog [7][21][22] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The retail sector's index closed at 2458.79 points, with a weekly increase of 6.66%, ranking first among the Shenwan primary industries [5][10] - Various sub-sectors showed positive performance, with general retail up 9.67% and professional chains up 5.06% [11] Industry Dynamics - The Hainan Free Trade Port's full closure has been officially launched, allowing for maximum freedom of goods movement between Hainan and overseas, while maintaining efficient regulation with the mainland [7][21] - The "zero tariff" policy has expanded significantly, increasing the number of duty-free items from approximately 1,900 to about 6,600, enhancing the competitiveness of retail prices in Hainan [22][24] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading duty-free retailers that hold duty-free operating licenses, as they are the most direct beneficiaries of the new policies [8][25] - High-end consumer goods and department stores are expected to benefit from the favorable retail environment created by the closure [8][25] - Modern logistics and supply chain service providers will see increased business volume due to the expected growth in people and goods movement [8][25] Valuation Metrics - The current Price-to-Book (PB) ratio for the retail sector is 2.09X, with a one-year range of 1.52X to 2.1X [6][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the medical services industry [6][9] Core Insights - The medical services sector has shown resilience, with a slight increase in valuation despite overall market corrections, highlighting its value proposition [6][9] - The recent passage of the U.S. 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) is expected to ease the immediate impact on the domestic biopharmaceutical industry, particularly for companies like WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics [5][61] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical and biological sector declined by 0.14%, ranking 22nd among 31 primary industries [1][11] - The medical services sub-sector index closed at 6344.37 points, up by 0.55% [22][23] Company Performance - Top-performing companies in the medical services sector include: - Meinian Health (+24.1%) - Baihua Pharmaceutical (+8.8%) - Dian Diagnostics (+8.1%) [2][27] - Underperforming companies include: - Nanhua Biological (-6.5%) - Medisyn (-5.2%) [2][27] Valuation Metrics - The current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for the medical services sector is 32.03X, with a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 3.23X [3][29] - The PE ratio has increased by 0.29X from the previous week, while the PB ratio has risen by 0.03X [29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth areas such as ADC CDMO and the peptide CDMO in the weight-loss drug supply chain, with specific companies like WuXi AppTec and Haoyuan Pharmaceutical highlighted [9][62] - It also recommends monitoring third-party testing laboratories and consumer healthcare sectors, particularly in ophthalmology and dentistry, with companies like Aier Eye Hospital and Dian Diagnostics [9][62]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6][8][35] Core Insights - The "New Year Opening" strategy of small and medium-sized banks is characterized by high interest rates on deposits, which is expected to support steady credit issuance [6][30] - Large banks are experiencing a significant increase in deposit growth, attributed to regulatory changes and their strong wealth management capabilities, which allow them to attract deposits effectively [6][31] - The competitive landscape indicates that small and medium-sized banks must leverage their local advantages and focus on serving small and micro enterprises to differentiate themselves from larger banks [7][33] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Deposits are shifting from small and medium-sized banks to large banks, with large banks showing a notable increase in deposit growth since the first quarter of this year [6][31] - The increase in deposit rates by small and medium-sized banks aims to attract savings and counteract structural changes in the deposit market [30][31] Future Outlook - Large banks are expected to continue expanding their market share in the small and micro finance sector, supported by government policies aimed at reducing costs and improving efficiency [7][33] - The "New Year Opening" period is anticipated to see steady growth in credit issuance from large banks, bolstered by favorable fiscal policies [8][35] Investment Recommendations - It is advised to focus on state-owned banks with stable asset deployment and regional banks with growth potential under economic recovery expectations, including recommendations for specific banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, and others [8][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][5] Core Insights - The medical consumables sector saw a weekly increase of 2.29%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.14 percentage points [2][4] - The current PE (ttm) for the medical consumables sector is 35.38X, with a PB (lf) of 2.54X, indicating a slight increase in valuation metrics compared to the previous week [3][16] - Recent policy changes from the National Health Commission aim to enhance the capabilities of grassroots medical institutions, which is expected to drive demand for specialized medical equipment and consumables [4][19] - The initiation of centralized procurement for high-frequency electric knives across 29 provinces presents opportunities for domestic brands to gain market share [4][20][22] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The medical consumables sector reported a weekly increase of 2.29%, with a current index value of 5840.56 points [2][8] - The sector's performance over the past 12 months shows a relative decline of 9% compared to the CSI 300 index [2] Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio for the medical consumables sector is currently at 35.38X, with a year-to-date maximum of 40.1X and a minimum of 28.88X [3][16] - The PB ratio stands at 2.54X, with a maximum of 2.92X and a minimum of 2.13X over the past year [3][18] Industry Dynamics and Announcements - The National Health Commission's new guidelines encourage grassroots medical institutions to upgrade from general to specialized departments, increasing the demand for specific medical consumables [4][19] - The centralized procurement initiative for high-frequency electric knives is expected to facilitate domestic brands' entry into mainstream hospitals, with a pricing mechanism that rewards product differentiation [4][20][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong cost control and innovation capabilities, particularly those benefiting from domestic substitution and policy guidance in the rehabilitation and chronic disease management sectors [5][24] - Specific companies to watch include those with diverse product lines and high innovation in high-value consumables, such as electrophysiology and interventional products [5][24]