交银国际研究 公司更新 目标价潜在涨幅 美元197.00↓+18.5% 科技 2024 年 10 月 30 日 收盘价 美元 166.25 超微半导体 (AMD US) 数据中心业务推进顺利，4Q24 指引或受游戏业务影响 3Q24 业绩符合预期，4Q24 指引略低于市场预期。公司 3Q24 收入 68.2 亿 美元，毛利率 53.6%，均符合我们和市场预期。公司指引 4Q24 收入 72-78 亿美元，中位数低于此前我们预期的 79.2 亿和市场一致预期的 76.8 亿美 元，我们认为或主要由于游戏等数据中心以外业务承压。公司指引 4Q24 毛利率 54%，亦低于此前我们和市场的预期（54.9%/55.0%）。 GPU 业务推进顺利，传统数据中心业务持续复苏。公司把 2024 年数据中 心 GPU 收入预期从 45 亿美元上调到 50 亿美元以上，高于我们之前预期的 48 亿美元，并称新产品 MI325X 或将在 2024 年开始向客户发货。我们上调 数据中心 GPU 2024 年收入预测至 52 亿美元。考虑到 3Q24 公司单季 GPU 业务收入或超过15亿美元，4Q24之后数据中心GPU或超过每季20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2328 HK) with a target price raised from HKD 12.0 to HKD 14.9, indicating a potential upside of 22.1% [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The significant growth in net profit for the third quarter is primarily driven by investment income, with a year-on-year increase of 38% for the first three quarters, aligning with the company's previous earnings forecast [1][2]. - The insurance service revenue growth remains stable, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters, while the growth rates for auto and non-auto insurance are 4.7% and 6.1%, respectively [1][2]. - The combined ratio for auto insurance improved to 96.8%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the non-auto insurance segment experienced underwriting losses, leading to a combined ratio of 100.5% for the first three quarters, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Total investment income for the first three quarters increased by 70% year-on-year, exceeding the annual total investment income forecast for 2023 by 32%. The annualized total investment return stands at 4.4%, up by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][4]. - The report projects a 31% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) expected to reach 13% [2][5]. - The forecast for insurance service revenue is set at RMB 483,629 million for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8% [4][5]. - The underwriting profit is expected to decline by 3.2% in 2024, with total investment income projected to rise by 51.5% [5][6]. Stock Performance Metrics - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 31.47%, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 84.17 billion and an average daily trading volume of 18.79 million shares [3][8]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 14.04 and HKD 8.69, respectively [3].

交银国际研究 公司更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 4.40 港元 3.80↑ -13.6% 新能源 2024 年 10 月 31 日 凯盛新能 (1108 HK) 光伏玻璃价格大跌导致亏损扩大，维持中性 光伏玻璃价格大跌导致亏损扩大：公司 3 季度收入 7.16 亿元人民币（下 同），同/环比下降 63%/54%，归母/扣非净亏损 1.93/2.06 亿元，环比扩大 298%/265%。根据卓创资讯，3 季度 2.0 毫米光伏玻璃均价环比下跌 22%， 导致毛利率创出-18.8%的新低，同/环比下降 31.5/24.7 个百分点，销售/管 理/研发/财务费用率 0.6%/4.6%/6.3%/2.4%，同比提高 0.2/2.7/2.8/1.2 个百 分点。扣非归母净利率-28.7%，同/环比下降 31.9/25.1 个百分点。存货环 比增长35%，仍持续累库。公司10 月冷修合肥新能源650 吨产线，今年已 冷修 2150 吨，在产产能降至 4350 吨，其中低成本的 1200 吨窑炉占比升 至 55%，有望推动成本下降。 行业持续减产但需求不及预期，导致玻璃价格不断创新低：在亏损和库存 压力下，9 月以 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CITIC Securities (6030 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 25.00, indicating a potential upside of 21.7% from the current price of HKD 20.55 [1][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that CITIC Securities has seen a positive turnaround in profit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters, and a significant 21.9% increase in the third quarter alone, driven by policy expectations and a rebound in the stock market [1][2]. - The growth in revenue is primarily attributed to self-operated investment income, which surged by 37% year-on-year, contributing 13.7 percentage points to core revenue growth, despite a 3.8% decline in core revenue overall [2][3]. - The report anticipates continued support from policy measures aimed at stabilizing the capital market, which will benefit leading brokerage firms as market activity remains robust, with average daily trading volume in October approaching RMB 2 trillion [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the core revenue decreased by 3.8%, while self-operated investment income increased by 37%, leading to a 12.5% growth in core revenue in the third quarter [2][3]. - The report provides updated profit forecasts, projecting a 17.7% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, with a target price based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.1 times for 2025 [2][3]. - Key financial metrics for CITIC Securities include: - Operating income for 2024E is projected at RMB 64,941 million, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1% [5][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 23,174 million in 2024E, reflecting a 17.7% increase compared to the previous year [5][8]. - Total assets are forecasted to grow to RMB 1,704,120 million by 2024E, representing a 30.2% increase [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) with a target price of HKD 37.59, indicating a potential upside of 26.1% from the current closing price of HKD 29.80 [1][3][8]. Core Insights - Haier's overseas business continues to drive revenue growth, with a 3.8% year-on-year increase in Q3, while domestic sales declined by 3% [2][3]. - The company has improved its localization in the U.S. market, increasing its self-manufacturing and sales ratio to 98%, which enhances its ability to mitigate potential tariff risks [2]. - The overall profit outlook for the year remains positive, with expectations of a 15% growth in net profit [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, Haier's revenue and net profit grew by 2.2% and 15.3% year-on-year, reaching RMB 203 billion and RMB 15.1 billion, respectively [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenue and net profit showed a slight increase of 0.5% and 13.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement to 31.3% [1][2]. - The company has optimized its expense ratios, with sales and management expense ratios improving by 0.5% and 0.1% year-on-year in Q3 [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Haier are set to increase from RMB 261.4 billion in 2023 to RMB 273.3 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 4.5% [5]. - Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 16.6 billion in 2023 to RMB 19.6 billion in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 17.9% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from RMB 1.79 in 2023 to RMB 2.11 in 2024 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price of HKD 13.15, indicating a potential downside of 11.1% from the current price of HKD 14.80 [1][7]. Core Insights - The company's performance has significantly declined due to a sharp drop in photovoltaic glass prices, resulting in a net loss of RMB 203 million in Q3 2023, marking the first loss since its listing [1]. - Revenue for Q3 2023 was RMB 3.91 billion, down 37% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter, which was far below market expectations of a profit of RMB 100 million [1]. - The report anticipates that the industry will begin to balance supply and demand due to ongoing production cuts, but significant price recovery will require further reductions in production capacity [1]. - The report suggests that potential government supply-side reforms could accelerate industry consolidation and benefit leading companies with lower energy consumption [1]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 21.524 billion in 2023, RMB 17.881 billion in 2024 (down 16.9% year-on-year), RMB 20.130 billion in 2025, and RMB 23.444 billion in 2026 [2][8]. - Net profit estimates are projected to be RMB 2.760 billion in 2023, RMB 1.114 billion in 2024 (down 59.6% year-on-year), RMB 1.137 billion in 2025, and RMB 2.297 billion in 2026 [2][8]. - The report indicates a significant adjustment in earnings forecasts, with a reduction of 44% for 2024, 49% for 2025, and 29% for 2026 [1]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic glass market has seen a drastic price decline, with average prices for 2.0mm and 3.2mm glass dropping by 22% and 11% respectively in Q3 2023 [1]. - Despite production cuts, demand has not met expectations, leading to continued inventory accumulation and further price declines of 8% and 10% since September [1]. - The report highlights that the industry has reduced production capacity by 9% compared to peak levels, with the company itself reducing output by 20% since August [1]. Valuation Metrics - The estimated price-to-book ratio for the company is projected to be between 0.8 and 1.9 times for the next 12 months, reflecting the volatility in earnings and policy expectations [1]. - The report uses a price-to-book ratio of 1.2 times for 2025 as a valuation benchmark, which corresponds to the target price of HKD 13.15 [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Rongchang Biopharma (9995 HK) with a target price of HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 45.6% from the current price of HKD 16.48 [1][3][5]. Core Insights - The company's 3Q24 core product sales continue to grow, with significant progress in overseas clinical registrations. The financial forecast for 2024 has been adjusted upwards based on better-than-expected performance in 3Q24 [1][3]. - The report highlights that the sales of the core products, Taitasip and Vidisizumab, are expected to expand further in the domestic market and continue steady progress in overseas clinical trials [1][3]. - The company has sufficient cash reserves of approximately RMB 1.12 billion and a credit line of RMB 2.8 billion to support its operations without needing to secure business development (BD) transactions in the near term [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 3Q24, Rongchang Biopharma reported a revenue of RMB 470 million, a year-on-year increase of 34.6%. The sales of Taitasip reached RMB 270 million, up 43% year-on-year, while Vidisizumab sales were around RMB 200 million, up 25% year-on-year [2][3]. - The net loss for 3Q24 was RMB 290 million, a significant reduction from RMB 430 million in 2Q24. The gross margin improved to 82.1%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The report projects a 6% increase in the 2024 revenue forecast to RMB 1.74 billion, with Taitasip and Vidisizumab expected to generate sales of RMB 960 million and RMB 760 million, respectively [3][4]. Future Outlook - Key upcoming milestones include the initiation of the second phase of the overseas SLE III trial for Taitasip in 4Q24, with data readout expected in 1H25. The report also notes ongoing registration and critical clinical trials for various indications in China [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the registration progress of Vidisizumab for breast cancer and the timeline for overseas submissions based on the progress of the first-line UC III trial [3][4].

交银国际研究 公司更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 人民币 54.07 人民币 57.10 +5.6% 新能源 2024 年 10 月 30 日 固德威 (688390 CH) 3 季度业绩低于预期；下调至中性评级 3 季度业绩低于预期：公司 3 季度收入/归母净利润 17.95 亿/3250 万元（人 民币，下同），同比下降2.2%/78.6%，环比下降11.2%/增长550.8%，低于 我们预期，主要是由于高毛利率的欧洲户储出货恢复仍较慢，同时，内地 户用新增装机放缓，对公司户用系统和内地户用并网逆变器销售产生一定 影响。3 季度毛利率为 23.4%，同比/环比分别下降 7.8/上升 3.3 个百分点， 主 要 是 由 于 收 入 结 构 变 化 。 销 售 / 管 理 / 研 发 / 财 务 费 用 率 分 别 为 7.5%/4.3%/7.1%/0.6%，同比+0.8/+0.6/+0.2/-0.6 个百分点，净利率 2.9%， 同比/环比分别下降 5.9/增长 1.7 个百分点。 逆变器对欧出口短期反复，但长期增长趋势不改，业绩逐季修复仍可期： 在环比持续回升后，9 月中国对欧洲逆变器出口金额同比/环比分 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|-----------------------|-------------------------|-----------------|-------------------------------| | 交银国际研究 \n公司更新 \n互联网 | 收盘价 美元 93.59 | 目标价 美元 111.00↓ | 潜在涨幅 +18.6% | 2024 年 10 月 30 日 | | 百度 (BIDU US) | | | | | 短期搜索广告收入或承压，关注 AI 对搜索改造带来的产品突破 2024 年 3 季度业绩预览：我们预计百度核心收入 263.6 亿元（人民币，下 同），同比降 0.8%，较此前下调 2.6%，主要因广告业务增长承压；调整 后运营利润 65.3 亿元，对应利润率 24.8%，对比 Visible Alpha 一致预期收 入降 0.7%/运营利润 64.4 亿元。预计百度（含爱奇艺）收入 334 亿元，同 比降 3%，调整后净利润 62 亿元，对应净利率 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price of HKD 1.77, indicating a potential upside of 3.5% from the current price of HKD 1.71 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a slight narrowing of losses in Q3 2024, with a net loss of RMB 1.492 billion, down from RMB 2.971 billion in the first three quarters, primarily due to reduced inventory impairment [1]. - The report highlights that supply-side reforms are expected to accelerate the clearing of polysilicon supply, which could enhance the company's market position due to its low electricity consumption advantage [2]. - The company is projected to become the first in the industry to achieve cash profitability in polysilicon production by Q1 2025, as cash costs are expected to drop below RMB 30,000 per ton [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to decline significantly in 2024 to RMB 16.169 billion, a 52% decrease year-on-year, before recovering in subsequent years [4]. - The average selling price of granular silicon is expected to rise to RMB 55,000 per ton by 2026, with a gradual increase in market share from 14% in 2024 to 22% by 2026 [3][6]. - The company’s production capacity is anticipated to reach 280,000 tons in 2024, with a projected increase to 456,600 tons by 2026 [6]. Valuation Adjustments - The valuation benchmark for the polysilicon segment has been raised from RMB 7 billion to RMB 10 billion per ton of capacity, reflecting increased visibility of profit recovery in 2025-2026 [3][7]. - The target price adjustment from HKD 1.31 to HKD 1.77 is based on the anticipated recovery in profitability and market conditions [3][7].