Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors (2333 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 17.36, indicating a potential upside of 20.7% from the current closing price of HKD 14.38 [3][5]. Core Insights - The third quarter net profit of Great Wall Motors declined due to foreign exchange losses, but the overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 19.0% year-on-year to RMB 142.25 billion, with a significant rise in net profit by 108.8% to RMB 10.43 billion [1][2]. - The company has optimized its export structure, with overseas sales growing by 53.2% year-on-year, contributing to a 7.5% share of China's automotive exports, ranking fourth in the market [2][3]. - The report projects a 5.1% and 13% increase in earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025, respectively, reflecting the positive impact of higher export sales [3][4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the projected revenue is RMB 202.19 billion, representing a 16.7% year-on-year growth, while net profit is expected to reach RMB 12.41 billion, a 76.8% increase [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 1.45, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.1 times [4][10]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 20.1% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 6.1% [10].

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 人民币 48.00 人民币 45.00↓ -6.2% 医药 2024 年 10 月 28 日 恒瑞医药 (600276 CH) 3Q 收入延续复苏态势、但利润率略有承压，维持中性评级 3Q24产品销售收入延续1H的高增长势头，但行业合规整治常态化后，公司营 销活动恢复正常，给公司利润率带来一定压力。我们下调目标价至 45 元（人 民币，下同）。公司创新药销售势头良好、出海持续取得重要进展，但仿制 药大品种集采仍是最大不确定性，且最新目标价对应 6%潜在股价降幅，因此 维持中性评级。 3Q24 收入延续高增速，利润率承压：恒瑞医药 3Q24 收入 65.9 亿元，同比 增长 12.7%，基本符合市场预期，增速相较于 2Q24（剔除首付款影响） 的 11.6%有所提高；归母净利润 11.9 亿元，同比增长 1.9%，低于市场预期 （13.5 亿元）。管理层表示，公司 3Q 创新药收入占比相比 1H24（超过 50%）有进一步提升。3Q 毛利率为 85.4%，同比提升 0.6ppt；但净利率同 比下降1.9ppts至18.0%。3Q销售费用增长25%，同时费用率 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 人民币 111.78 人民币 133.00 +19.0% 科技 2024 年 10 月 28 日 韦尔股份 (603501 CH) 3Q24 业绩高增长，多领域发力打开长期增长空间 3Q24 营收继续创历史新高，盈利能力持续改善。3Q24 营收为 68.2 亿元 （人民币，下同），再创历史新高，同比增长 10%，环比增长 6%，主要 来自下游需求回暖。伴随公司在高端智能手机市场的产品导入和在汽车自 动驾驶领域的持续渗透，3Q24 毛利率达 30.4%，同比增长 8.7 个百分点， 环比增长 0.2 个百分点，毛利率已连续五个季度环比增长，主要得益于产 品结构优化以及对供应链成本的良好控制能力。 智能手机 CIS 高端化进展显著，积极布局副摄，有望进一步提升份额。公 司 OV50H 已进入华为、小米等国内主流品牌旗舰机型主摄供应商名单。 公司 OV50K 作为全球首款采用 TheiaCel™技术的智能手机 CIS，首发搭载于 荣耀 Magic 6 至臻版/RSR 保时捷版的主摄。管理层在业绩会表示，明年会 密集推出200MP、50MP等高端产品，有望进一步提升其 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 收盘价 美元10.50 目标价潜在涨幅 美元13.80+31.4% 教育 2024 年 10 月 25 日 好未来教育 (TAL US) 培优素养表现稳健，学习机持续推新拉动销量 2025 财年 2 季度业绩：收入 6.2 亿美元，同比增 50%，高于我们/彭博一致 预期的增速 45%/46%，主要受益于旺季下强劲的素质教育培训需求及学习 机销售。调整后运营利润 6500 万美元，对比我们/彭博一致预期 1300 万 /2500 万美元。调整后运营利润率 10%，同比下降约 2 个百分点，但仍好 于我们及市场预期的 2%。 业绩亮点：1）学习服务：我们估算素养业务收入同比增~80%，超过此前 预期，得益于培优小班收入（100%+同比增速）保持增长动能，主要受强 劲需求以及教学点扩张下招生人数上升拉动。2）内容解决方案：学习机 销售收入保持高增速，根据蝉妈妈数据，我们估算2季度销量10-15万台， 5 月推出的 xPad 经典版 2024 拉动季度销量，9 月推出单价较低的学练机进 一步丰富产品线。产品的持续迭代拉动学习机品牌及口碑，带动收入增 长。3）营销费用占收比同比提升近 6 个百 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 收盘价 港元50.05 目标价潜在涨幅 港元80.00+59.8% 教育 2024 年 10 月 24 日 新东方教育科技 (9901 HK) 核心教育业务仍表现稳健，估值有修复空间 2025 财年 1 季度业绩：收入 14.4 亿美元，对比我们预期的 14.6 亿美元， 与彭博市场预期基本一致，同比增 30.5%。不包含东方甄选，收入增 33.5%，与我们预期基本一致，主要受教育新业务增长拉动。调整后运营 利润 3 亿美元，同比增 23%，对应调整后运营利润率 21%，不包含东方甄 选运营利润率为 24%，同比优化 2.2 个百分点，主要受益于教育业务旺季 及去年教学点扩张带来规模效应。调整后归母净利润 2.6 美元，与我们/彭 博市场预期基本一致，对应调整后净利率 18%，同比上升 1 个百分点。 核心教育业务概览：1）传统业务：留学备考/出国咨询/成人及大学生/高 中收入同比增 18.8%/20.7%/30.4%/~21%，贡献收入约 50%。因受 1 对 1 业 务影响，出国备考和高中收入较我们预期小幅降速，大学生业务增长加 速。2）新业务：收入同比增50%，收入贡献约24%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Power (836 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 25.02, reflecting a potential upside of 20.6% from the current price of HKD 20.75 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company has successfully raised HKD 7.2 billion through a share issuance, with 46% of the new shares subscribed by its parent company, China Resources Group, indicating strong support and confidence in the company [1]. - The new share issuance is expected to cover a significant portion of the capital expenditures for 2024 and 2025, with anticipated new installations of 8 GW and 9 GW of wind and solar capacity, respectively [1]. - The net debt-to-equity ratio is projected to decrease by 15 percentage points to 138% in 2024, further reducing to 130% in 2025, which will enhance the company's financial stability [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2026 are as follows: HKD 104,166 million (2024E), HKD 112,798 million (2025E), and HKD 121,494 million (2026E), with a modest growth rate of 0.8% in 2024 and 8.3% in 2025 [2][13]. - Net profit is expected to rise significantly from HKD 11,333 million in 2023 to HKD 14,782 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.4% [2][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 is adjusted to HKD 2.50, down from a previous estimate of HKD 2.68, due to share dilution effects from the new issuance [2][13]. Capacity and Sales Forecast - The total installed capacity is projected to increase from 68,507 MW in 2024 to 78,507 MW in 2025, with renewable energy sources accounting for 48% of the total capacity in 2024 and increasing to 53% in 2025 [3]. - The total electricity sales are expected to grow from 207,618 GWh in 2024 to 227,041 GWh in 2025, driven by increased generation from both wind and solar power [3]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating the value of the thermal power segment at HKD 18,014 million and the renewable energy segment at HKD 111,497 million, leading to a total valuation of HKD 129,511 million [4].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|--------------|--------------|----------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 交银国际研究 | | | | | | 公司更新 | | | | | | | | | | | | 消费 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2024 年 10 月 23 日 | | | 港元 15.28 | 港元 14.89 | -2.5% | | | 李宁 | (2331 HK) | | | | | | | | | | 3 季度流水因客流量压力而承压；预期 4 季度表现好于前三季度 客流量压力延续，3 季度销售情况承压。李宁于 2024 年 3 季度的全渠道零 售流水同比下滑中个位数，环比压力增大（对比 2 季度的低个位数下 滑）。分渠道来看，线下零售渠道受客流量压力而表现不佳，3 季度呈现 中个位数下滑（相比第 2 季度同比持平的表现）；线下批发渠道延续 2 季 度约高个位数下滑的表现。总体线下渠道呈高个位数下滑趋势。线上渠道 表现良 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for iQIYI (IQ US) with a target price of **USD 3.80**, implying a potential upside of **57.7%** from the current price of USD 2.41 [1][4] Core Views - **3Q24 Preview**: The report expects iQIYI's 3Q24 revenue and adjusted operating profit to remain largely unchanged at **RMB 7.2 billion** and **RMB 350 million**, respectively, representing a YoY decline of **10%** and **61%** due to pressure on membership and brand advertising revenue [1] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: The adjusted net profit for 3Q24 is revised upward to **RMB 450 million** (vs Bloomberg consensus of RMB 120 million), driven by foreign exchange gains from RMB appreciation, with an adjusted net margin of **6%** [1] - **Membership and Advertising Pressure**: Membership revenue is expected to decline **13% YoY** and **3% QoQ** in 3Q24, while advertising revenue is projected to drop **21% YoY** to RMB 1.3 billion due to budget cuts in FMCG and other industries [1] - **Content Strategy Upgrade**: iQIYI is focusing on a "long + short" premium content strategy, introducing "Short Theater" (5-20 minutes) and "Micro Theater" (1-5 minutes) to enhance member engagement and diversify content offerings [2] - **Valuation**: The report maintains the 2024 revenue forecast and slightly adjusts the 2025 net profit forecast, valuing iQIYI at **10x 2025 P/E** and reiterating the target price of **USD 3.80** [2] Financial Data Summary - **Revenue**: Expected to decline **5.6% YoY** to RMB 30.1 billion in 2024E, with a recovery to **5.2% YoY growth** in 2025E [3] - **Net Profit**: Forecasted at RMB 1.88 billion in 2024E, a **33.9% YoY decline**, but expected to rebound to **40.5% YoY growth** in 2025E [3] - **EPS**: Adjusted EPS for 2024E is revised upward by **16.3%** to RMB 1.92, while 2025E EPS is slightly adjusted downward by **2.2%** to RMB 2.70 [3] - **P/E Ratio**: Stands at **8.9x** for 2024E and **6.3x** for 2025E, indicating an attractive valuation [3] Market Performance - **Share Price Performance**: iQIYI's share price has declined **50.61% YTD**, underperforming the MSCI China Index [4] - **Market Cap**: As of the report date, iQIYI's market cap is **USD 1.27 billion** [4] Content and Market Share - **Drama Market Share**: iQIYI's drama share in the TOP20 rankings improved to **37%** in 3Q24, up from **20%** in 1H24, driven by better-performing series [1][5] - **Variety Show Market Share**: iQIYI ranked **3rd** in variety shows, with a stable share compared to 1H24 [1][5] Membership and ARM Trends - **Membership**: Paid members are expected to decline **3% QoQ** to 43.68 million in 3Q24, with a **13% YoY drop** in membership revenue [7] - **ARM (Average Revenue per Member)**: ARM growth remains under pressure, with a projected **3% QoQ decline** in 3Q24 [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 28.75, indicating a potential upside of 123.2% from the current closing price of HKD 12.88 [1][4]. Core Insights - The recent decision to deconsolidate Legend Biotech and treat it as an associate company is expected to have a positive one-time profit impact, clarifying the company's profit trajectory [1]. - The accounting treatment change will result in a non-cash tax-exempt gain estimated between USD 2 billion to USD 3 billion, reflecting the fair market value of the investment in Legend Biotech [1]. - The company anticipates achieving profitability starting in 2024, driven by a clearer reflection of its non-cell therapy business performance and a recovery in revenue growth [1]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to USD 1.056 billion, USD 709 million, and USD 842 million, respectively, with a significant increase in net profit forecasted for 2024 at USD 2.293 billion [2][3][6]. - The gross profit for 2024 is expected to be USD 567 million, with a gross margin of 53.7% [3][6]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve significantly, reaching 217.2% in 2024, indicating a strong recovery from previous losses [6]. Market Performance - The company's stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 35.15%, with a 52-week high of HKD 24.45 and a low of HKD 8.23 [2][4]. - The market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 27,050.70 million, with an average daily trading volume of 27.76 million shares [2][4]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is projected at 1.5, indicating a low valuation relative to expected earnings [2][6]. - The book value per share is expected to rise to USD 1.70 by 2024, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.98 [2][6]. Conclusion - The report highlights a significant turnaround potential for the company following the deconsolidation of Legend Biotech, with expectations of improved financial performance and a clear path to profitability starting in 2024 [1][3][6].

2024年10月 品 听 师 三十五 U 300785 CH 我们预计中国集成电路设计公司中期内将 继续获得更高的市场份额。0 010 0 我们认为下游行业本土化、技术进步和强 有力的政策支持是加速中国集成电路设计 行业发展的主要驱动力。 // 我们认为，随着全球半导体市场的复苏， 中国半导体设计公司的基本面正进一步稳 定向好，市场可能忽略中国集成电路设计 公司的机会。 首次覆盖 首次覆盖韦尔股份（603501 CH）和卓 胜微(300782 CH)，两家公司分别在 CIS和射频前端领域处于市场领先地位。 U 603581 CH 交银国际研究 行业剖析 估值概要 2024 年 10 月 7 日 科技行业 中国集成电路设计行业首次覆盖：本土化进程或将加速 我们首次覆盖中国集成电路（IC）设计行业，给予领先评级，预计中国集 成电路设计公司将继续获得更高的市场份额。我们预计 2023-32 年中国集 成电路设计行业复合年增长率将达到 9.8%，超过同期全球集成电路市场 8.5%的复合增长率。我们还预计中国集成电路设计行业的自给率将从 2022 年的 18%提高到 2028 年的 27%。 我们认为下游行业本土化、技 ...