交银国际研究 财务模型更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 人民币 48.00 人民币 45.00↓ -6.2% 医药 2024 年 10 月 28 日 恒瑞医药 (600276 CH) 3Q 收入延续复苏态势、但利润率略有承压，维持中性评级 3Q24产品销售收入延续1H的高增长势头，但行业合规整治常态化后，公司营 销活动恢复正常，给公司利润率带来一定压力。我们下调目标价至 45 元（人 民币，下同）。公司创新药销售势头良好、出海持续取得重要进展，但仿制 药大品种集采仍是最大不确定性，且最新目标价对应 6%潜在股价降幅，因此 维持中性评级。 3Q24 收入延续高增速，利润率承压：恒瑞医药 3Q24 收入 65.9 亿元，同比 增长 12.7%，基本符合市场预期，增速相较于 2Q24（剔除首付款影响） 的 11.6%有所提高；归母净利润 11.9 亿元，同比增长 1.9%，低于市场预期 （13.5 亿元）。管理层表示，公司 3Q 创新药收入占比相比 1H24（超过 50%）有进一步提升。3Q 毛利率为 85.4%，同比提升 0.6ppt；但净利率同 比下降1.9ppts至18.0%。3Q销售费用增长25%，同时费用率 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 133.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.0% from the current closing price of RMB 111.78 [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a record high revenue of RMB 68.2 billion in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6%, driven by recovering downstream demand [1]. - The gross margin improved to 30.4% in Q3 2024, an increase of 8.7 percentage points year-on-year and 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, attributed to product mix optimization and effective supply chain cost control [1][7]. - The company is actively expanding its presence in the high-end smartphone market and the automotive autonomous driving sector, which opens up long-term growth opportunities [2][3]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024 is set at RMB 26.209 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 24.7%, while the net profit is projected to reach RMB 3.409 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 502.8% [6][8]. - The basic earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 2.82, with further growth expected to RMB 3.70 in 2025 and RMB 4.60 in 2026 [6][8]. Market Position and Product Development - The company has made significant progress in the high-end smartphone CIS market, with its OV50H model being adopted by major domestic brands like Huawei and Xiaomi [2]. - The introduction of the OV50K, the world's first smartphone CIS utilizing TheiaCel™ technology, is expected to enhance the company's market share in high-end products [2]. - In the automotive sector, the OX08D10 camera, which employs TheiaCel technology, is positioned to provide higher resolution and lower power consumption for autonomous driving applications [3]. Financial Metrics - The company’s market capitalization stands at approximately RMB 133.89 billion, with a 52-week high of RMB 117.92 and a low of RMB 79.22 [5]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 20 million shares, with a year-to-date price change of 4.75% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TAL Education Group (TAL US) with a target price of $13.80, indicating a potential upside of 31.4% from the current price of $10.50 [1][3][6]. Core Insights - TAL Education's revenue for Q2 FY2025 reached $619 million, representing a 50% year-over-year increase, surpassing both internal and Bloomberg consensus estimates of 45% and 46% respectively. This growth was primarily driven by strong demand for quality education training and sales of learning machines [1]. - The adjusted operating profit for the same quarter was $65 million, with an operating margin of 10%, which, despite a year-over-year decline of approximately 2 percentage points, still exceeded expectations [1]. - The report highlights that the learning services segment saw an estimated revenue growth of around 80% year-over-year, driven by strong demand and an increase in enrollment due to the expansion of teaching points [1]. - The sales of learning machines also maintained high growth, with estimated sales of 100,000 to 150,000 units in Q2, supported by the launch of new products [1]. - Marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue increased by nearly 6 percentage points to 29%, while management expenses decreased by 9 percentage points to 19%, indicating ongoing operational efficiency improvements [1]. Financial Projections - For Q3 FY2025, which is typically a slower season for the education industry, revenue is expected to grow by 39% year-over-year to $520 million, supported by the performance of small class services and new product sales [1][5]. - The report projects that the adjusted operating profit margin will be -3.5% for Q3 FY2025, compared to -2.7% in the same period last year [1]. - Revenue forecasts for the fiscal years 2024 to 2027 are as follows: $1,490 million in 2024, $2,103 million in 2025, $2,444 million in 2026, and $2,797 million in 2027, with respective year-over-year growth rates of 46.2%, 41.1%, 16.2%, and 14.5% [2][8]. Valuation - The report adjusts the operating profit forecast for FY2025 to $48 million, up from breakeven, with a profit margin of 2%. For FY2026 and FY2027, the operating profit margins are expected to stabilize at approximately 6% and 10% respectively, with absolute profit values of $146 million and $274 million [1][5]. - The valuation is based on a 20x price-to-earnings ratio for the education business and a 1x price-to-sales ratio for learning machines, supporting the target price of $13.80 [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price of HKD 80.00, indicating a potential upside of 59.8% from the current price of HKD 50.05 [1][4]. Core Insights - The core education business remains robust, with a revenue of USD 1.44 billion for Q1 FY2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.5%. Excluding Dongfang Zhenxuan, revenue grew by 33.5% [1]. - Adjusted operating profit reached USD 300 million, a 23% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted operating margin of 21% [1]. - The company is expected to maintain a revenue growth of 30% for the fiscal year 2025, with an operating profit margin of 13% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025, revenue is projected to reach USD 5.235 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 21.4% [3]. - Net profit is expected to be USD 563 million, with an EPS of USD 3.40, reflecting a growth of 49% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 1.9 for FY2025, indicating attractive valuation [3]. Business Segments - Traditional business segments such as study abroad preparation and consulting showed year-on-year revenue growth of 18.8% and 20.7% respectively, contributing approximately 50% to total revenue [1]. - New business segments experienced a 50% year-on-year revenue increase, contributing about 24% to total revenue [1]. - The number of teaching points increased to 1,089 as of August 31, 2024, with a management target of 20-25% expansion for FY2025 [1]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that New Oriental remains a leading player in the education training industry, with opportunities to adjust its product structure in response to market demand [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from scale effects due to last year's expansion of teaching points, which will enhance profitability [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Power (836 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 25.02, reflecting a potential upside of 20.6% from the current price of HKD 20.75 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company has successfully raised HKD 7.2 billion through a share issuance, with 46% of the new shares subscribed by its parent company, China Resources Group, indicating strong support and confidence in the company [1]. - The new share issuance is expected to cover a significant portion of the capital expenditures for 2024 and 2025, with anticipated new installations of 8 GW and 9 GW of wind and solar capacity, respectively [1]. - The net debt-to-equity ratio is projected to decrease by 15 percentage points to 138% in 2024, further reducing to 130% in 2025, which will enhance the company's financial stability [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2026 are as follows: HKD 104,166 million (2024E), HKD 112,798 million (2025E), and HKD 121,494 million (2026E), with a modest growth rate of 0.8% in 2024 and 8.3% in 2025 [2][13]. - Net profit is expected to rise significantly from HKD 11,333 million in 2023 to HKD 14,782 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.4% [2][13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 is adjusted to HKD 2.50, down from a previous estimate of HKD 2.68, due to share dilution effects from the new issuance [2][13]. Capacity and Sales Forecast - The total installed capacity is projected to increase from 68,507 MW in 2024 to 78,507 MW in 2025, with renewable energy sources accounting for 48% of the total capacity in 2024 and increasing to 53% in 2025 [3]. - The total electricity sales are expected to grow from 207,618 GWh in 2024 to 227,041 GWh in 2025, driven by increased generation from both wind and solar power [3]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, estimating the value of the thermal power segment at HKD 18,014 million and the renewable energy segment at HKD 111,497 million, leading to a total valuation of HKD 129,511 million [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for Li Ning (2331 HK) with a target price of HKD 14.89, indicating a potential downside of 2.5% from the current closing price of HKD 15.28 [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The third quarter sales were pressured by foot traffic issues, with a low single-digit year-on-year decline in overall retail sales. Offline retail channels experienced a mid-single-digit decline, while online channels showed a middle single-digit growth [1][2]. - The fourth quarter is expected to perform better than the previous three quarters, driven by improved sales metrics and a favorable comparison to last year's low base. The company anticipates a recovery in sales during the National Day holiday, with offline sales achieving low single-digit growth and e-commerce channels experiencing a 30-40% increase [2][3]. - Discount rates are expected to remain under pressure due to poor foot traffic, leading to increased terminal discounting to maintain inventory levels. The management expects this trend to continue into the fourth quarter, although professional categories like badminton and running have shown strong performance [2][3]. Financial Overview - Revenue for Li Ning is projected to grow from RMB 25,803 million in 2022 to RMB 28,196 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.2% in 2024 [3][6]. - Net profit is expected to decline from RMB 4,064 million in 2022 to RMB 2,952 million in 2024, with a significant drop of 20.7% in 2023 [3][6]. - The company maintains a gross margin improvement expectation of approximately 1 percentage point for the year, despite the anticipated challenges [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for iQIYI (IQ US) with a target price of **USD 3.80**, implying a potential upside of **57.7%** from the current price of USD 2.41 [1][4] Core Views - **3Q24 Preview**: The report expects iQIYI's 3Q24 revenue and adjusted operating profit to remain largely unchanged at **RMB 7.2 billion** and **RMB 350 million**, respectively, representing a YoY decline of **10%** and **61%** due to pressure on membership and brand advertising revenue [1] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: The adjusted net profit for 3Q24 is revised upward to **RMB 450 million** (vs Bloomberg consensus of RMB 120 million), driven by foreign exchange gains from RMB appreciation, with an adjusted net margin of **6%** [1] - **Membership and Advertising Pressure**: Membership revenue is expected to decline **13% YoY** and **3% QoQ** in 3Q24, while advertising revenue is projected to drop **21% YoY** to RMB 1.3 billion due to budget cuts in FMCG and other industries [1] - **Content Strategy Upgrade**: iQIYI is focusing on a "long + short" premium content strategy, introducing "Short Theater" (5-20 minutes) and "Micro Theater" (1-5 minutes) to enhance member engagement and diversify content offerings [2] - **Valuation**: The report maintains the 2024 revenue forecast and slightly adjusts the 2025 net profit forecast, valuing iQIYI at **10x 2025 P/E** and reiterating the target price of **USD 3.80** [2] Financial Data Summary - **Revenue**: Expected to decline **5.6% YoY** to RMB 30.1 billion in 2024E, with a recovery to **5.2% YoY growth** in 2025E [3] - **Net Profit**: Forecasted at RMB 1.88 billion in 2024E, a **33.9% YoY decline**, but expected to rebound to **40.5% YoY growth** in 2025E [3] - **EPS**: Adjusted EPS for 2024E is revised upward by **16.3%** to RMB 1.92, while 2025E EPS is slightly adjusted downward by **2.2%** to RMB 2.70 [3] - **P/E Ratio**: Stands at **8.9x** for 2024E and **6.3x** for 2025E, indicating an attractive valuation [3] Market Performance - **Share Price Performance**: iQIYI's share price has declined **50.61% YTD**, underperforming the MSCI China Index [4] - **Market Cap**: As of the report date, iQIYI's market cap is **USD 1.27 billion** [4] Content and Market Share - **Drama Market Share**: iQIYI's drama share in the TOP20 rankings improved to **37%** in 3Q24, up from **20%** in 1H24, driven by better-performing series [1][5] - **Variety Show Market Share**: iQIYI ranked **3rd** in variety shows, with a stable share compared to 1H24 [1][5] Membership and ARM Trends - **Membership**: Paid members are expected to decline **3% QoQ** to 43.68 million in 3Q24, with a **13% YoY drop** in membership revenue [7] - **ARM (Average Revenue per Member)**: ARM growth remains under pressure, with a projected **3% QoQ decline** in 3Q24 [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 28.75, indicating a potential upside of 123.2% from the current closing price of HKD 12.88 [1][4]. Core Insights - The recent decision to deconsolidate Legend Biotech and treat it as an associate company is expected to have a positive one-time profit impact, clarifying the company's profit trajectory [1]. - The accounting treatment change will result in a non-cash tax-exempt gain estimated between USD 2 billion to USD 3 billion, reflecting the fair market value of the investment in Legend Biotech [1]. - The company anticipates achieving profitability starting in 2024, driven by a clearer reflection of its non-cell therapy business performance and a recovery in revenue growth [1]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to USD 1.056 billion, USD 709 million, and USD 842 million, respectively, with a significant increase in net profit forecasted for 2024 at USD 2.293 billion [2][3][6]. - The gross profit for 2024 is expected to be USD 567 million, with a gross margin of 53.7% [3][6]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve significantly, reaching 217.2% in 2024, indicating a strong recovery from previous losses [6]. Market Performance - The company's stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 35.15%, with a 52-week high of HKD 24.45 and a low of HKD 8.23 [2][4]. - The market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 27,050.70 million, with an average daily trading volume of 27.76 million shares [2][4]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is projected at 1.5, indicating a low valuation relative to expected earnings [2][6]. - The book value per share is expected to rise to USD 1.70 by 2024, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.98 [2][6]. Conclusion - The report highlights a significant turnaround potential for the company following the deconsolidation of Legend Biotech, with expectations of improved financial performance and a clear path to profitability starting in 2024 [1][3][6].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of the Chinese integrated circuit (IC) design industry with a leading rating, expecting continued market share growth for Chinese IC design companies [5][9]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.8% for the Chinese IC design industry from 2023 to 2032, surpassing the global IC market's CAGR of 8.5% during the same period [5][9]. - The self-sufficiency rate of the Chinese IC design industry is projected to increase from 18% in 2022 to 27% by 2028 [5][9]. - Key drivers for the growth of the Chinese IC design industry include localization in downstream industries, technological advancements, and strong policy support [5][9]. - The report highlights the potential benefits for Chinese IC design companies from the recovery of global semiconductor markets and the increasing market share of domestic smartphone manufacturers [5][9]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The report covers the Chinese IC design industry and two leading companies, Weir Shares (603501 CH) and Zhaoshengwei (300782 CH), both of which are positioned favorably in the CIS and RF front-end sectors [9][10]. Valuation Overview - Weir Shares is rated as a buy with a target price of 133 CNY, while Zhaoshengwei is also rated as a buy with a target price of 107 CNY [10][12]. Downstream Localization - The report notes that by 2023, China assembled approximately 81% of personal computers, 75% of smartphones, and 58% of electric vehicles globally, indicating a strong domestic supply chain [16][18]. Market Share Growth Potential - The report emphasizes that the IC design sector is crucial for the entire semiconductor supply chain, contributing the highest added value at 34% of the total industry value [18][20]. Technology Gap Closing - The report indicates that the technology gap between domestic and international IC companies is narrowing, particularly in the CIS and RF front-end sectors [5][9]. Policy and Financial Support - Strong policy and financial backing, particularly from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, are identified as key pillars supporting the domestic semiconductor industry [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 2.37, indicating a potential upside of 16.2% from the current price of HKD 2.04 [11]. Core Insights - The impact of the Sichuan hydropower plant's exit from operation is expected to be minor, with compensation payments anticipated to be received in 2025 [1]. - The company forecasts a reduction in hydropower generation by approximately 110 million kWh in 2024, leading to a revenue decrease of about RMB 30 million [1]. - A one-time impairment is expected in 2024, but the core earnings impact for 2025-2026 is projected to be minimal [1]. - The dividend policy for 2024 is expected to remain unchanged, with a forecasted dividend of RMB 0.14 per share [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 20,867 million for 2024, RMB 22,696 million for 2025, and RMB 24,982 million for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 2.1%, 8.8%, and 10.1% respectively [2]. - Net profit estimates are RMB 2,932 million for 2024, RMB 3,523 million for 2025, and RMB 4,240 million for 2026, with a projected decline of 7.6% in 2024 followed by a recovery in subsequent years [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be RMB 0.34 for 2024, RMB 0.41 for 2025, and RMB 0.50 for 2026 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 5.4 for 2024, decreasing to 4.5 for 2025 and 3.7 for 2026 [2]. Operational Insights - The company’s total electricity sales for 2024 are projected to be 40,927 million kWh, with contributions from various energy sources: wind (13,836 million kWh), natural gas (19,424 million kWh), solar (6,066 million kWh), and hydropower (1,600 million kWh) [5]. - The operational profit from the wind and solar segments is expected to be significant, while the hydropower segment's contribution to operating profit is anticipated to be only 1% in 2025-2026 [1].