交银国际研究 公司更新 医药 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年3月28日 港元30.50 港元49.00↑ +60.7% 海吉亚医疗 (6078 HK) FY23 符合预期，FY24 内生外延驱动高增长，新医院经营情况持续改善  FY23业绩符合预期，维持2024年经调整净利润增速指引：2023年收入同 个股评级 比增长 27.6%（剔除核酸检测影响后+34.0%），净利润/经调整净利润 买入 +42.1%/+17.5%（剔除核酸后+42.1%/+31.1%）。整体业绩符合公司2023年 底更新的指引。肿瘤业务收入+23.6%，占总收入比重43.6%。医院业务收 入38.90亿元（+28.5%，剔除核酸后+35.4%），其中门诊/住院收入分别为 1年股价表现 13.51 亿/25.39 亿元（+23.1%/+31.6%），剔除核酸检测后的门诊收入 6078 HK 恒生指数 +43.2%。手术量增长 34.6%至 83,770 例。毛利率/经调整净利率分别为 10% 0% 31.6%/17.5%（-0.6/-1.5个百分点）。管理层表示，2M24整体收入同比增 -10% 长超40%，并维持此前指引：202 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 58.68, indicating a potential upside of 42.3% from the current price of HKD 41.25 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The company's 2023 performance exceeded expectations, with a net profit margin reaching a historical high of 28.3%. Sales and net profit grew by 28.4% and 42.2% year-on-year, respectively, totaling RMB 42.67 billion and RMB 12.08 billion [1][5]. - The beverage segment's revenue contribution surpassed that of packaged water for the first time, with tea beverages showing exceptional growth of over 100% in the second half of 2023 [1][5]. - The company anticipates double-digit revenue growth for 2024, despite some challenges in e-commerce channels, and expects gross margins to remain stable in the first half of 2024 [1][5]. Financial Overview - **2023 Financial Performance**: - Revenue: RMB 42.67 billion, up 28.4% YoY - Net Profit: RMB 12.08 billion, up 42.2% YoY - Gross Margin: 59.5%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points YoY - Net Profit Margin: 28.3%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points YoY [1][5][8]. - **2024 Projections**: - Expected Revenue: RMB 49.36 billion, with a growth rate of 15.7% - Expected Net Profit: RMB 12.99 billion, with a growth rate of 7.6% - Projected Gross Margin: 59.6% [2][8]. Segment Performance - **Beverage Segments**: - Packaged Water: Contributed 48% of sales, with a YoY growth of 11% - Tea Beverages: Contributed 30% of sales, with a remarkable YoY growth of 83% - Functional Beverages: Contributed 11% of sales, with a YoY growth of 28% - Juice: Contributed 8% of sales, with a YoY growth of 23% [1][5][6]. Market Position - The company has established a strong market position with a significant increase in its tea beverage offerings, driven by consumer health trends and new product launches [1][5]. - The stock has shown resilience, with a 52-week high of HKD 46.30 and a low of HKD 38.50, reflecting a stable market presence [4][7].

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年3月27日 港元9.33 港元11.30↓ +21.1% 顺丰同城 (9699 HK) 首次实现全年盈利，长期利润率 3 倍提升空间 个股评级  2023年首次实现全年盈利。2023年全年收入同比增21%至124亿元（人民 币，下同），利润扭亏为盈达5100 万元，对应净利率0.4%。对比我们/市 买入 场预期的132亿元/134亿元收入及4800万元/-100万元利润。全年毛利润 7.9亿元，同比提升93%（约3.8亿元），毛利率提升2.4个百分点，毛利 1年股价表现 增速明显快于收入，得益于通过对商圈及订单的精细化管理、技术算法升 9699 HK 级提升骑手人效等有效降低成本，以及业务量增长（30%+同比增速）带 5% MSCI中国指数 来规模效应。 0% -5% -10%  2023年运营亮点：1）同城业务收入73.9亿元，同比增13%，其中商户端 -15% -20% （2B）/客户端（2C）收入增速分别为12%/14%，受商户品类扩充拉动， -25% -30% 尤其是茶饮商家需求提升。2023年全年商户数增加14万（上半年增5万/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to HKD 4.20, indicating a potential upside of 28.8% from the current price of HKD 3.26 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company's 2023 performance fell short of expectations, with total revenue increasing by only 0.4% year-on-year to RMB 15.44 billion, which was 3.4% lower than Bloomberg consensus estimates. This was primarily due to a 47% decline in revenue from value-added services, impacted by the real estate market adjustment [1][5]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 4.9 percentage points to 17.1%, with all four business segments experiencing margin declines. The most significant drops were in owner/value-added services, which fell by 12.8 and 14.8 percentage points to 21.4% and 15.8%, respectively [1][5]. - Net profit plummeted by 74.9% year-on-year to RMB 460 million, significantly below market expectations, largely due to the decline in gross margins and a 107% increase in asset impairment losses [1][5]. - The company has proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.06, leading to a total annual dividend of RMB 0.085, with a payout ratio of approximately 26% [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was RMB 15.44 billion, a slight increase of 0.4% from 2022. The property management service revenue rose by 7.8% to RMB 10.81 billion, while value-added services revenue dropped by 46.6% to RMB 915 million [5][7]. - The adjusted core net profit for 2023 was RMB 1.55 billion, aligning closely with expectations despite the overall net profit decline [1][2]. - The company’s cash position at the end of 2023 was RMB 3.95 billion, approximately 0.9 times its market capitalization, suggesting limited downside risk for the stock price [2][6]. Business Outlook - The company is expected to reduce its reliance on cyclical value-added services, with projections indicating that such services will only account for 5-10% of total revenue in the future [1][2]. - The management area under third-party contracts remains robust, with a maintained proportion of approximately 83%, indicating lower dependency on related real estate companies compared to peers [1][2]. Future Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to RMB 17.44 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. The core profit is expected to rebound to RMB 1.39 billion, marking a significant recovery from the 2023 figures [3][7]. - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in profit margins, with the gross margin forecasted to stabilize around 17.3% in 2024 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenzhou International (2313 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 116.00, indicating a potential upside of 76.3% from the current price of HKD 65.80 [1][2][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong order growth and full capacity utilization across all factories, suggesting a robust outlook for 2024. Despite a 10.1% year-on-year decline in sales for 2023, net profit remained stable at RMB 4.557 billion, aligning with market expectations. The second half of 2023 saw a narrowing of sales decline from -15% in the first half to -5.5% [1][5]. - The management anticipates a sales increase of no less than 15% year-on-year for 2024, with an average selling price growth of 1-2% in USD. Key clients such as Uniqlo, Adidas, and Puma are expected to see order growth exceeding 10%, while new clients like Lululemon may experience a 40-50% increase in orders [1][5]. - The report projects a gross margin improvement, estimating it to reach 28-29% in Q1 2024, driven by increased capacity utilization and a recovery in orders [1][5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, Shenzhou International reported revenues of RMB 24,970 million, a decrease of 10.1% year-on-year, with a projected recovery to RMB 30,008 million in 2024, reflecting a growth of 20.2% [4][8]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 4,557 million, with earnings per share (EPS) remaining stable at RMB 3.03. The forecast for 2024 anticipates an EPS increase to RMB 4.57, representing a growth of 50.8% [4][8]. - The dividend payout ratio increased to 60.3%, with a dividend yield of 3.1% for 2023, and is expected to maintain a high payout ratio in the coming years [1][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD Company Limited (1211 HK) with a target price of HKD 306.48, indicating a potential upside of 51.1% from the current price of HKD 202.80 [1][3][10]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 met market expectations, with a net profit growth of 81% year-on-year to RMB 30 billion, and total revenue increased by 42% to RMB 602.3 billion [1][6]. - BYD's vertical supply chain advantage and pricing power are expected to continue leading the industry, while accelerated exports and high-end product offerings are anticipated to enhance profitability [3][5]. - The report predicts a 24.9% increase in sales volume for 2024, reaching 3.77 million units, with a market share increase expected [2][3]. Financial Summary - In 2023, BYD's gross profit reached RMB 121.76 billion, with a gross margin of 20.2%, up from 17.0% in 2022 [6]. - The company’s net profit margin improved to 5.0% in 2023, up from 3.9% in 2022, reflecting operational efficiency [6]. - The report projects revenues of RMB 764.81 billion for 2024, with a net profit forecast of RMB 36.06 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% [5][12]. Sales and Market Strategy - The report highlights that BYD's strategy of launching multiple models in the budget segment (under RMB 200,000) is aimed at capturing market share through cost reduction and price competition [2][3]. - The introduction of high-end models is expected to contribute positively to profitability, with high-end brands projected to account for approximately 8% of total sales, an increase of 4 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date decline of 5.41%, with a 52-week high of HKD 275.60 and a low of HKD 171.70 [4][10]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 20.63 million shares, indicating active market participation [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a projected P/E ratio of 22x for 2024, reflecting a slight adjustment from previous estimates [3][5]. - The estimated book value per share is expected to rise from RMB 61.61 in 2023 to RMB 78.46 in 2024, indicating strong growth in shareholder equity [5][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Mengniu Dairy is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 21.50, indicating a potential upside of 25.9% from the current price of HKD 17.08 [1][10]. Core Insights - Despite facing market headwinds, Mengniu Dairy has shown resilience with a 6.5% year-on-year sales growth in 2023, although net profit decreased by 9.3% to RMB 4.809 billion, falling short of consensus expectations by 14% [1][2]. - The company has experienced an increase in gross margin by 185 basis points to 37.2% due to lower raw milk costs, which also contributed to a slight increase in operating profit margin [1][2]. - The guidance for 2024 is disappointing, with expected sales growth in the low to mid-single digits, which is below previous expectations of 7.5% [2]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 98.624 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [3][11]. - Net profit for 2023 is expected to be RMB 4.809 billion, reflecting a decrease of 9.1% compared to the previous year [3][11]. - The company anticipates a slight expansion in operating profit margin by 30-50 basis points for 2024, while gross margin is expected to improve due to declining raw milk prices [2][11]. Segment Performance - The liquid milk segment, particularly high-end products like "Telunsu" and low-temperature yogurt, has shown strong performance, while ice cream and milk powder segments have faced challenges [1][6]. - Sales growth by category in 2023: liquid milk +5%, ice cream +7%, milk powder -2%, cheese +230% (excluding "Miaokelando" which saw a decline of 68%), and other products -32% [1][6]. - The high-end product trend continues, with fresh milk sales increasing by 16% year-on-year for premium offerings [1][6]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at RMB 103.644 billion, with expected growth of 5.1% [3][11]. - The forecast for net profit in 2024 is RMB 5.482 billion, indicating a recovery with a growth rate of 14% [3][11]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from 30% to 40% [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to HKD 12.80, indicating a potential upside of 24.0% from the current price of HKD 10.32 [1][2][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance slightly exceeded expectations after excluding impairment impacts, with a net profit of RMB 4.35 billion for the last year, down 67% year-on-year, aligning with the earnings forecast [1][2]. - The production cost of polysilicon has significantly decreased, reaching RMB 54,000 per ton in Q4, with expectations for further reductions as production ramps up [1][2]. - Demand for polysilicon is expected to exceed forecasts, potentially stabilizing prices at a higher bottom level, with an anticipated average selling price of around RMB 60,000 per ton from 2024 to 2026 [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of RMB 30.75 billion in 2023, a decline of 18.1% year-on-year, with a projected revenue of RMB 27.68 billion for 2024 [4][9]. - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be RMB 4.35 billion, a significant drop of 67.6% compared to the previous year, with forecasts of RMB 1.88 billion, RMB 2.25 billion, and RMB 2.79 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][9]. - The company plans to increase its polysilicon production capacity to 280,000 to 300,000 tons in 2024, with no new capacity additions planned for the near term [1][2]. Production and Sales Metrics - The company achieved a polysilicon production and sales volume of 191,000 tons and 203,000 tons respectively in the previous year, marking a year-on-year increase of 52% and 90% [1][2]. - The company aims to enhance the proportion of N-type materials in its production to 85% this year, up from 65-70% currently, which is expected to improve its competitive edge [1][2]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a global solar installation growth rate of nearly 30% this year, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 20%, driven by strong demand [2][9]. - The company is expected to resume dividend payments following the completion of its A-share IPO, which is currently underway [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Anta Sports (2020 HK) with a target price of HKD 135.00, indicating a potential upside of 61.6% from the current closing price of HKD 83.55 [1][13]. Core Insights - Anta's 2023 net profit exceeded expectations, with a strong profit margin expansion. The sales and net profit for 2023 grew by 16.2% and 34.9% year-on-year, reaching RMB 62.356 billion and RMB 10.236 billion, respectively [1][5]. - The report highlights that the brand revamp of Anta is expected to drive future growth, with a focus on single-store sales growth and overseas expansion [1][5]. - The operating profit margin for Anta is projected to exceed 20% in 2024, with FILA and other brands maintaining margins around 25% [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **2023 Performance**: Sales reached RMB 62.356 billion, with a net profit of RMB 10.236 billion, reflecting a 34.9% increase year-on-year. The gross profit margin improved by 2.4 percentage points to 62.6% [4][5]. - **2024 Projections**: Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 71.151 billion, with a net profit forecast of RMB 13.571 billion, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% for earnings per share [4][14]. - **Dividend Policy**: The dividend payout ratio has increased to 50.7% in 2023, up from 44.3% in 2022, with expectations to maintain around 50% in the future [1][5]. Brand Performance - **Anta Brand**: Sales for the Anta brand grew by 9.3% in 2023, with a significant increase in single-store sales expected due to new product launches and store formats [1][5]. - **FILA Brand**: FILA's operating profit margin increased by 7.6 percentage points to 27.6% in 2023, driven by reduced discounts and effective marketing strategies [1][5]. - **Other Brands**: Other brands under Anta, including Descente and Kolon, are projected to see sales growth exceeding 20% and 30%, respectively, in 2024 [1][5]. Market Position and Strategy - Anta is focusing on brand revitalization and overseas expansion, with plans to establish research and development centers globally. The upcoming Paris Olympics is expected to enhance brand visibility [1][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of localizing product designs to cater to different markets, particularly in regions like the Middle East [1][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for the company with a target price of HKD 16.00, indicating a potential upside of 7.5% from the current price of HKD 14.88 [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 7.7% year-on-year for FY23, reaching RMB 10.104 billion, driven by a 37.1% increase in innovative drugs and collaboration products, which now account for 67.9% of total revenue [1][4]. - Net profit for FY23 increased by 26.9% to RMB 3.278 billion, exceeding expectations due to a gross margin of 89.8% and significant increases in bank interest and investment income [1][4]. - The company expects product sales growth to recover to double digits in FY24, with innovative drug revenue projected to exceed 70% of total revenue [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24 are set at RMB 12.310 billion, reflecting a 21.8% growth, with net profit expected to reach RMB 3.991 billion, a 21.6% increase [4][6]. - The company plans to double its capital expenditure from RMB 200 million in the previous year to invest in R&D headquarters [1]. - Key therapeutic areas such as oncology and metabolic diseases showed strong performance, with revenue growth of 11.7% and 16.3%, respectively [1][4]. Research and Development Focus - The company will focus on key products such as Amelot, ADC, and GLP-1 dual-target drugs in 2024, with plans to submit a supplemental NDA for Amelot in Q3 2024 [1][2]. - The sales target for Amelot is projected to exceed RMB 6 billion by 2026, despite a 40% price reduction due to insurance negotiations [1][4].