交银国际研究 公司更新 医药 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年3月26日 港元16.62 港元42.00 +152.7% 药明合联 (2268 HK) FY23 业绩超预期，技术进步+产能扩张持续驱动未来高增长  FY23超预期，FY24有望保持超高速增长：2023年收入+114.4%，净利润/ 个股评级 经调整净利润分别同比+82.1%/112.1%，均超过此前盈喜。毛利率/经调整 买入 净利率分别为 26.3%/19.4%，同比基本稳定。IND 前服务收入占比 43.6% （+5.1个百分点），IND后服务收入占比56.4%。非ADC项目收入占比提 升至11.1%（vs. 2022年7.6%）。截至2023年底，公司有143个进行中的 1年股价表现 综合项目（vs. 2022年末94个），包括122个临床前&I期项目、21个II/III 期项目（包括5个即将申报BLA 的PPQ项目）； ADC综合项目129个、 2268 HK 恒生指数 20% 非ADC综合项目14个；未完成订单总量5.8亿美元，同比+81.9%。公司全 10% 年新签50个综合项目，包括42个临床前和8个临床阶段项目，并将36个 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 消费 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年3月21日 港元21.45 港元21.00 -2.1% 李宁 (2331 HK) 2023 年业绩不达预期，1Q24 表现及全年指引乏力  2023 年净利润未达预期： 公司净利润同比下降22%（低于一致预期的同 个股评级 比下降约13%，与我们预期的同比下降25%一致）。销售额从 2023上半年 中性 的 +13%放缓至 2023下半年的 +1%，这导致经营去杠杆化和2023下半年经 营利润率下降至8.0%（去年同期为16.7%）。按渠道划分，零售/批发/电 商分别同比增长 37%/-11%/-0.2%，原因是李宁在下半年大力削减对分销商 1年股价表现 的订单，以维持健康的库销比（2023 年底为 3.6 倍）。按类别划分，跑步 和健身类产品的销售额在下半年加速增长，而篮球和运动生活类产品的销 2331 HK 恒生指数 20% 售额则出现环比下降。 10% 0% -10%  2024 年1季度零售流水持平；2024 年指引低于预期： 2024 年1季度至今 -20% -30% 销售额「环比持平」，低于 2023 年 4 季度的 20~30 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 互联网 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年3月27日 港元12.16 港元14.00↓ +15.1% 移卡 (9923 HK) 支付业务支撑收入增长，关注到店业务转型及海外支付拓展  2023年业绩符合预期。2023年收入40亿元人民币（下同），同比增16%， 个股评级 受支付业务强劲增长驱动，部分被到店业务下降抵消。经调整EBITDA同 中性 比增161%至5.6亿元，符合预期，主要受益于支付业务利润扩张及到店亏 损收窄。 1年股价表现  支付业务支撑业绩增长。1）2023年支付规模（GPV）/支付收入为2.9万 9923 HK 亿元/35亿元，同比增29%/27%，受益于线下消费复苏以及代理商渠道扩 10% MSCI中国指数 张，活跃支付商户数同比增13%至920万，但环比2023年上半年持平。剔 0% -10% 除非经常性收入调整影响，支付费率维持上行，同比提升 1 个基点至 -20% 0.133%。2）受竞争影响，到店GMV增30%至43亿元（下半年环比降22% -30% 至19亿元），收入同比降71%，均弱于年初预期，主要受平台政策调整 -40% 及服务商竞争加剧影响。 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 消费 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年3月26日 港元5.60 港元9.90 +76.8% 九毛九 (9922 HK) 怂火锅势头强劲；加盟模式是潜在利润扩张引擎 个股评级  2023 年业绩符合预期：收入和净利润均超过了2021年峰值并创下历史新高。 买入 净利润同比反弹 820%至4.53 亿元人民币（符合盈利预告），销售额同比增长 49% 至59.86 亿元。受经营杠杆带动，毛利率/经营利润率/净利率分别同比增 长0.3/5.1/6.3个百分点至 64.2%/18.0%/7.6%。在激烈竞争和平均售价/促销压 1年股价表现 力下，坚挺的毛利率证明了管理层的管理与适应能力。 9922 HK 恒生指数 10%  太二和怂火锅引领增长：按品牌划分，2023年，太二/怂火锅/九毛九/其他品 0% -10% 牌的销售额分别同比增长 44%/210%/4%/127%，占2023 年销售额75%/13%/ -20% 11%/1%。尽管占比不高，其他品牌在 2023 年下半年的销售额同比增长 -30% -40% 314%，主要由赖美丽烤鱼及首次贡献收入的赏鲜悦木（更天然的口味）所带 -5 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 9.04, indicating a potential upside of 26.3% from the current price of HKD 7.16 [3][12]. Core Insights - The company's core profit for 2023 increased by 4.4% year-on-year to RMB 1.28 billion, surpassing market expectations by 5-8%. The clean energy segment was a significant growth driver, with revenues and gross profits rising by 41% and 44%, respectively [1][2]. - The report highlights that the clean energy segment is expected to maintain a robust growth trajectory, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% from 2023 to 2026. The order backlog for clean energy products has increased by 54% year-on-year to RMB 16.6 billion, covering 90% of the forecasted revenue for 2024 [1][2]. - The hydrogen energy segment is anticipated to grow by 42% in 2024, reaching approximately RMB 1 billion in revenue. However, the chemical segment is expected to see a slight decline of around 4% in revenue due to a high base effect from 2022 [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at RMB 23.63 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.5%. The net profit for the same period is RMB 1.11 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 0.63, marking a 21.5% increase [3][6]. - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 27.55 billion, with a net profit forecast of RMB 1.37 billion and an EPS of RMB 0.67. The report indicates a slight adjustment in EPS forecasts for 2024 and 2025, reflecting conservative gross margin expectations for the chemical and liquid food segments [2][3]. - The dividend payout ratio has increased from 41% in 2022 to 49% in 2023, with a 25% increase in the final dividend [1][2]. Segment Performance - The clean energy equipment segment is projected to generate revenues of RMB 14.91 billion in 2023, with a growth rate of 40.8%. The chemical equipment segment is expected to decline by 15.8% to RMB 4.41 billion [8][9]. - The liquid food equipment segment is forecasted to grow by 18.6% to RMB 4.29 billion in 2023 [8][9]. - The gross margin for the clean energy segment is expected to remain stable, while the chemical segment's gross margin is projected to decline slightly [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd. (3808 HK) with a target price of HKD 26.49, indicating a potential upside of 32.4% from the current price of HKD 20.00 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The company's 2023 performance met expectations, with a significant increase in net profit and a higher dividend payout ratio. Revenue rose by 43.9% year-on-year to RMB 85.498 billion, while net profit surged by 217.9% to RMB 5.318 billion, exceeding market expectations by 2% [1][5]. - The strong recovery in heavy truck sales, both domestically and internationally, contributed to improved profit margins due to economies of scale. Heavy truck sales in mainland China and overseas grew by 40% and 46.9%, respectively [1][5]. - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio from 46.2% in 2022 to 50.1% in 2023, distributing a final dividend of RMB 0.965 per share [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - **2023 Financials**: Revenue reached RMB 85.498 billion, with a gross profit margin of 16.7%. Operating profit increased by 132.7% to RMB 6.487 billion, and net profit margin improved to 6.2% [5][7]. - **2024 Projections**: Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 101.704 billion in 2024, with a projected net profit of RMB 6.436 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19% [4][7]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report projects a price-to-earnings ratio of 10x for 2024, with an attractive dividend yield of 5.3% based on the current price [2][4]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the heavy truck market, with a market share of approximately 30% in mainland China as of early 2024. The market share for natural gas heavy trucks has significantly increased by 13.05 percentage points to 24.1% [1][5]. - The report anticipates continued growth in both domestic and international markets, with heavy truck exports accounting for 57% of total sales in 2023, and a forecasted market share of over 50% in the export segment for 2024 [1][5].

估值：考虑2024年到店业务的投入和社区团购刚开始减亏，我们认为2025 年公司业绩或能反映美团实际价值，我们给予2025年本地商业15倍市盈率 ，并考虑新业务0.5倍市销率，保守原则不考虑社区团购业务，折现2024年 目标价为111港元（原93港元），维持买入。 1年股价表现 资料来源: FactSet 3/23 7/23 11/23 -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%3690 HK 恒生指数 赵丽, CFA zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8800 9788-8054 蔡涵 hanna.cai@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8800 9788-8041 图表 1: 2023年4季度财务状况摘要 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|---------|-------------------------------|---------|---------|---------| | 财务数据一览 年结 12月31 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted from HKD 64 to HKD 51, indicating a potential upside of 52.5% from the current closing price of HKD 33.45 [1][3][22]. Core Views - The report anticipates an improvement in key performance indicators for 2024, driven by stable contributions from the company's core businesses in life insurance, health insurance, property insurance, and banking [1][3][35]. - Concerns regarding the decline in the core solvency ratio are noted, but the company is expected to maintain its dividend capacity in the medium term [1][35]. - The investment logic in the industry has shifted from growth to stable profitability based on high dividends, with the company positioned favorably in the "comprehensive finance + technology" sector [3][54]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects a 3.5% revenue growth in 2024, with projected revenues of RMB 946,114 million [6]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase by 13.2% in 2024, reaching RMB 96,994 million, following a decline of 22.5% in 2023 [6][55]. - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) is expected to rebound by 11% in 2024, primarily due to growth in property insurance profits and a reduction in asset management losses [7][20]. Business Segments - Life and health insurance OPAT is projected to remain stable in 2024, while property insurance is expected to see a significant recovery in underwriting profits [20][27]. - The asset management segment is anticipated to narrow its losses in 2024, with improvements expected as capital markets stabilize [12][20]. - The report highlights that the company has successfully eliminated the drag from financing guarantee insurance, leading to an expected improvement in the combined ratio for property insurance to 99.2% in 2024, down from 100.7% in 2023 [15][21]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s current valuation reflects an attractive investment opportunity, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 5.8 for 2024 and a price-to-embedded value (P/EV) of 0.39 [6][54]. - The dividend per share is projected to increase to RMB 2.51 in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio based on OPAT of 35% [55]. Market Position - The company is recognized for its competitive advantage in the comprehensive financial services sector, leveraging technology to enhance its offerings [3][54]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to withstand interest rate risks due to a balanced product structure and robust investment performance [53].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 66.30, indicating a potential upside of 7.9% from the current price of HKD 61.45 [10]. Core Insights - The company's core earnings for 2023 slightly exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year decline of 4.7%, attributed mainly to profits from commodity hedging. The wholesale gas segment's gross profit fell short of expectations by approximately 25% due to lower-than-expected LNG trading profits [3][6]. - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio by 6 percentage points to 39%, despite the decline in earnings [3]. - The focus of growth is shifting towards non-LNG trading businesses, which is deemed necessary to stabilize earnings recovery. The management has separated profits from LNG trading and domestic core businesses, indicating a potential redefinition of LNG trading as a non-core business [3][6]. - Earnings composition is expected to stabilize starting in 2024, with management setting a target for retail gas segment gross profit growth of 10% [3][6]. - The report anticipates that overall core profits will decline by 9% in 2024, but growth is expected to resume in 2025 with an estimated increase of around 11% [3][6]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 110,051 million in 2022 to RMB 139,605 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.7% [2][14]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5,865 million in 2022 to RMB 8,502 million by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 8.5% [2][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to decline from RMB 7.04 in 2022 to RMB 6.08 in 2024, before recovering to RMB 7.52 in 2026 [2][14]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 8.1 in 2022, increasing to 9.3 in 2024, and then decreasing to 7.6 by 2026 [2][14]. Segment Performance - The gas connection segment is expected to see a revenue decline from RMB 5,950 million in 2022 to RMB 4,480 million in 2024 [7]. - Retail gas revenue is projected to grow from RMB 60,082 million in 2022 to RMB 68,905 million by 2026, with gross profit margins expected to improve [7]. - The wholesale gas segment is anticipated to experience a significant decline in gross profit, dropping from RMB 2,736 million in 2022 to RMB 619 million in 2024 [7]. - The diversified energy and smart home segments are expected to show strong growth, with gross profit increasing by 24% and 16% respectively in 2024 [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, China Power (2380 HK), with a target price of HKD 3.90, indicating a potential upside of 20.4% from the current price of HKD 3.24 [1][2][16]. Core Insights - The company's 2023 profit was below expectations, with a net profit of RMB 2.66 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase, but lower than market expectations by 31% and the report's expectations by 22%. This was primarily due to higher operational costs, including significant losses in the hydropower segment and increased labor costs [1][2]. - Despite the lower-than-expected profit, the company increased its dividend per share to RMB 0.132, a 20% increase year-on-year, with a payout ratio rising from 55% in 2022 to 61% in 2023 [1][2]. - The company plans to slow down its self-built projects slightly, with expected new installations of 7 GW in 2024, down from 13 GW in 2023, while maintaining a capital expenditure below RMB 30 billion [1][2]. - The management anticipates significant profit release from the wind and solar segments in 2024, with expected operating profit growth of 61% year-on-year, while the hydropower segment is expected to recover from losses [1][2]. - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for 2024 and 2025 downwards by 41% and 36%, respectively, but still expects net profit growth of 70% and 44% for those years [1][2]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 44.26 billion, a slight increase of 1.3% year-on-year, with a projected revenue of RMB 51.54 billion for 2024, reflecting a growth of 16.5% [2][17]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated to be RMB 4.94 billion, with earnings per share expected to rise to RMB 0.36, marking a significant increase of 69.6% compared to 2023 [2][17]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 40.08 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 47.13 million shares [4][17]. Operational Insights - The company has significantly increased its renewable energy capacity, with wind power installations rising by 67.1% and solar power installations increasing by 110.2% in 2023 [6][7]. - The management aims to achieve a target of 90% clean energy capacity by the end of 2025, indicating a strategic focus on renewable energy [1][2].