策略摘要 投资建议 我们建议投资者在 2026 年前夕，采取哑铃型配置策略：一方面布局具有国资背景、卡位核心频轨资源的系统集 成商（确定的贝塔收益），一方面切入商业火箭与卫星核心零部件及配套环节（如相控阵 T/R 组件、激光通信、 3D 打印、测试、核心网）的民营配套龙头（高弹性的阿尔法收益）。重点关注深度绑定商业火箭/星座供应链的 A 股上市公司，它们将最先受益于行业从样机研制向流水线生产的范式转移。 风险提示 发射失败风险；地缘政治与供应链制裁；凯斯勒效应；市场竞争与整合风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 全球航天产业处在 SpaceX 等为代表的商业航天企业崛起之际，正经历着类似大航海时代的结构性变革。中国商 业航天开始到达从政策孵化期向工业化爆发期过渡的关键节点。我们认为，2026 年将是中国商业航天产业的阿 尔法元年，行业逻辑将从单纯的题材映射转向基于供应链业绩兑现的基本面投资。 这一判断基于四大维度的深度耦合： 政策-高频组网的迫切性：随着千帆星座（G60）与中国星网（GW）两大巨型星座在 2024-2025 年完成初步技术 验证与首批次发射，2026 年将有望进入高频密集组网期。根据 ITU（ ...

来源：围棋投研 今天有很多同行都期待着收盘，想看看上证指数有没有罕见的十连阳，结果是做到了十连阳，不过收盘 略微下跌。 坦白说，我倒不是很关心指数，因为近期市场太过于结构化，不同投资者的体验感是天差地别，基本和 指数涨跌无关。 先说最兴奋的一群人，在我的接触范围里，就是商业航天和机器人投资者。 商业航天被誉为真正的星辰大海，一纸《商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准》，上面支持商业化 关键期的火箭企业能够加快上市，再次把行情推向高潮。 有人说，商业航天看不到业绩啊！没错，但市场要的就是没有业绩，这样就更有想象空间，"宇宙人"不 算估值，只需要相信人类的新未来。 当然，卖方机构肯定不能这样说，不然显得特别不专业。怎么办呢？就是狂摁计算器，努力算出远期的 市场规模和业绩，尽量去解释得通。 就以光伏板块为例，市场给到"太空光伏"的测算如下： 有计算出万亿市场规模的，大概逻辑是10万颗卫星*单颗用50平方*单平2万元=1000亿，叠加马斯克规 划的每年新增100GW太空算力，直接突破万亿规模； 有直接算出3倍市值空间的，算法是未来3年马斯克SpaceX每年发射星舰145次*每次80颗卫星*每颗800 万价值量*30% ...

Market Overview - All three major indices are in the red, with the Dow and Nasdaq down about one-tenth of a percent, while the S&P 500 remains mostly flat [1] - Over the past five days, the S&P 500 has seen a gain of about 0.4%, with expectations for a 1.3% gain to confirm a Santa Claus rally [1] - Commodities show mixed results, with gold reversing a selloff and silver experiencing its largest drop in five years before gaining momentum [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes reveal a split among officials regarding rate cuts, with some favoring cuts due to job market concerns while others prefer to hold rates steady due to inflation worries [2][4] - Fed officials expect inflation to remain somewhat elevated in the near term, with concerns about tariffs potentially impacting consumer prices [3] - The job market is anticipated to stabilize, but uncertainty remains due to delays in official government data [4] Investment Strategies for 2026 - Optimism for 2026 is driven by anticipated stimulus, rate cuts, and strong profit momentum, suggesting a continued bull market [10][11] - Financials and consumer discretionary sectors are viewed as attractive due to expected economic stability and deal-making activity [21] - International investments are recommended as U.S. investors may have underweighted this area, with potential benefits from a weaker dollar and fiscal reforms in Europe and Japan [20] Oracle's Position - Oracle's stock has dropped approximately 30% this quarter, facing risks related to its partnership with OpenAI, which is reportedly losing around $12 billion a quarter [25][27] - Concerns about Oracle's earnings growth stem from nonrecurring items, with core operating income growing at a respectable 12-15% [29] - Oracle's credit spreads are widening due to increased capital expenditures, raising concerns about its financial health [31] AI and Technology Sector - The AI sector remains a focal point, with companies like Nvidia in advanced talks to acquire AI startup AI21 Labs for up to $3 billion [49] - The AI trade has slowed, but the overall market has held steady, indicating resilience beyond tech stocks [10] - Concerns about AI valuations being too high are prevalent, but the market is expected to continue benefiting from profit growth [15] Space Sector Developments - The space sector is evolving beyond launches to focus on data, connectivity, and infrastructure, with companies like Planet Labs leveraging AI for data analysis [39] - Global Star is enhancing connectivity through satellite technology, partnering with Apple for improved services [42] - Intuitive Machines is positioned for growth with upcoming projects related to lunar exploration and satellite manufacturing [45][47]

Core Insights - AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has launched Bluebird 6, its most advanced satellite, which is the largest commercial communication array deployed in low earth orbit, offering 10 times the capacity of previous models [1][8] - The satellite provides direct-to-smartphone connectivity with peak data rates of 120 Mbps, enhancing voice, data, and video services for unmodified 4G and 5G smartphones [2] - ASTS is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 100.64, significantly higher than the industry average, indicating a premium valuation that may warrant caution among investors [3] Market Potential - The space-based network market is projected to grow from $10.41 billion in 2025 to $62.08 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.07% [5] - ASTS has established partnerships with over 50 mobile network operators, covering 3 billion subscribers, which positions the company for sustainable growth [5][6] Competitive Landscape - ASTS faces intense competition from established players like SpaceX's Starlink and Globalstar, which are also developing LEO satellite communication technologies [7] - Globalstar is advancing its C-3 Mobile Satellite System and currently trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 11.79, while Viasat is investing in its ViaSat-3 platform, trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.44 [7][9] Stock Performance - Over the past year, ASTS shares have increased by 244.8%, outperforming the industry growth of 24.3% [10] - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have seen a decline over the past 60 days, indicating potential challenges ahead [12]

One of the key investing stories to watch in 2026 is the potential for a SpaceX IPO, an offering that was confirmed by the company's CEO Elon Musk. A market expert shares with Benzinga what the IPO could mean for a bull run, other IPOs and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors. • Tesla stock is showing positive momentum. What’s next for TSLA stock?SpaceX IPOFreedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods said a potential SpaceX IPO in 2026 would be "some IPO.""I hope it happens at the New York Stock E ...

Summary of SpaceX Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: SpaceX - **Industry**: Aerospace and Satellite Communications Key Points and Arguments 1. **Mars Colonization Plan**: SpaceX aims to build a self-sustaining city on Mars with a population of over one million, requiring the transport of millions of tons of goods to the planet [4][6][15] 2. **Launch Capacity**: SpaceX plans to conduct 10 launches per day, transporting over 200 tons of goods to low Earth orbit and 250,000 tons to Mars during each transfer window [4][6] 3. **Investment Highlights**: - Unique asset in the space industry with a potential growth trajectory of $10 trillion [7] - Long-term commitment from Elon Musk, a successful entrepreneur [7] - Strong ecosystem support from Tesla, xAI, Neuralink, and others [7] - Advanced reusable rocket technology, giving SpaceX a monopolistic position in launches [7] - Development of the largest low Earth orbit satellite constellation, Starlink, leveraging first-mover advantages [7] - High industrial manufacturing capabilities and vertical integration efficiency [7] Financial Overview 1. **Revenue Projections**: - Total revenue expected to grow from $8.6 billion in 2023 to $141.9 billion by 2040, with a CAGR of 53.5% from 2023 to 2024 [61] - Starlink expected to account for 74.6% of total revenue by 2040 [61] 2. **Operating Expenses**: Projected operating expenses will increase from $6.7 billion in 2023 to $49.5 billion by 2040 [61] 3. **Profitability**: Operating profit is expected to turn positive by 2024, reaching $68.6 billion by 2040 [61] 4. **Launch Frequency**: Total launches are projected to increase from 96 in 2023 to 556 by 2040 [61] Starlink Developments 1. **User Growth**: Starlink's user base is projected to grow significantly, reaching over 1 billion subscribers by 2040 [61] 2. **Satellite Deployment**: Starlink has launched over 10,000 satellites, with approximately 9,400 currently operational [47] 3. **Market Position**: Starlink is positioned to fill the gap in global internet connectivity, with a focus on underserved regions [51] Technological Advancements 1. **Rocket Technology**: SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Starship rockets are designed for high payload capacities and reusability, significantly reducing launch costs [43][26] 2. **Engine Development**: The Raptor engine's performance improvements will lower the cost per kilogram for orbital launches [28][29] 3. **Starship's Future**: Starship is expected to transport millions of tons of goods to Mars, with the first unmanned mission planned in collaboration with the Italian Space Agency [37][38] Market Trends 1. **Rocket Launch Market Growth**: The global rocket launch market is entering a high-growth phase, driven by demand for low Earth orbit satellite networks [19] 2. **LEO Satellite Dominance**: Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites are becoming the dominant technology for satellite internet, with significant advantages over traditional ground-based communications [17] Additional Insights 1. **Vertical Integration**: SpaceX has established a highly integrated industrial system, managing everything from component production to multi-orbit launch delivery [24] 2. **Collaborative Ecosystem**: The integration of Starlink with Tesla and xAI enhances the overall value proposition, creating a robust data transmission network [11][12] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the SpaceX conference call, highlighting the company's ambitious plans, financial outlook, technological advancements, and market positioning.

耀看光伏第12期—— 太空光伏四问四答 长江证券研究所电力设备与新能源研究小组 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 分析师及联系人 SAC执业证书编号：S0490514040001 SAC执业证书编号：S ...

北京商报讯（记者 陶凤 王天逸）12月30日，针对投资者关于SpaceX相关提问，蓝思科技在互动平台回 复称，公司与北美大客户已有10年深度合作，是其一级核心供应商。公司凭借全面的材料技术、完整的 技术路线及从模组到整机的ODM能力，深度参与大客户智能座舱、人形机器人、商业航天等多项核心 业务。在商业航天方面，公司已批量出货卫星地面接收器外观件、结构件模组。凭借全球领先的超薄玻 璃后道加工技术，已自主研发厚度小于1mm的超薄光伏玻璃模组、大尺寸UTG柔性玻璃等，配合超高 难度的多重镀膜工艺，可满足抗原子氧剥蚀、抗辐射和热控制等太空光伏技术需求，目前已与相关客户 对接合作开发中。 ...

Core Insights - The space sector, valued at $600 billion, is expected to continue its growth trajectory next year as both startups and established companies increase their efforts in the industry [1] Industry Summary - The growth in the space sector is being significantly driven by companies like SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, which is at the forefront of this expansion [1]

2026 国产替代加速 2025年8月底，AI芯片厂商寒武纪盘中股价超过贵州茅台，成为A股股价最高的个股。多年以后当人们 回顾芯片国产替代的历程时，这将是难忘的一刻。 高高昂起的股价，代表的是整个市场对国产芯片崛起的期望。来到年末，更多AI芯片站在上市的关 口。摩尔线程、沐曦股份率先登陆科创板，上市首日，摩尔线程股价涨超4倍，"中一签最高浮盈近40万 元"的沐曦则刷新了近十年A股上市首日单签盈利纪录。壁仞科技、天数智芯也在冲刺港股上市。 资本市场对国产替代的期望有现实基础。一方面是数据中心AI芯片进口长期存在不确定性，国内的云 或数据中心厂商难以获得最先进的AI芯片。另一方面，基于市场充分竞争的考虑，市场也希望有两家 以上的国产AI芯片厂商能"跑出来"，提供更多元的选择。 此前DeepSeek火遍全球，带动AI应用遍地开花，已改变了AI计算需求的结构，给国产芯片带来机遇。 其背后，更多计算需求从训练走向推理，推理对芯片性能的要求相对较低，国产芯片可以满足需求。互 联网厂商中，腾讯9月表示，腾讯云已全面适配主流国产芯片。 可以展望，接下来随着更多AI应用落地，AI推理需求还会继续增长。可能会有更多数据中心和云厂 ...