Group 1: Economic Indicators - Eurozone's September harmonized CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, below expectations, indicating easing inflation and potential for a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB in October[4] - Japan's new Prime Minister stated that the economy is not ready for further rate hikes, with expectations for the BoJ to maintain current rates in October[5] - In the U.S., non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, significantly exceeding the expected 150,000, leading to a revision of Fed's rate cut expectations from 50 basis points to 25[7] Group 2: Real Estate Market - During the National Day holiday, there was a significant increase in property viewing and visiting rates, with many cities reporting varying degrees of sales growth, suggesting a potential stabilization in the real estate market[10] - In major cities, property viewing rates increased by over 50% compared to the previous year, with some areas seeing new home sales rise by 569%[11] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Approximately 2.008 billion people traveled across regions during the National Day holiday, with a daily average increase of 4.1% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer travel intent[12] - Consumer spending during the holiday saw a 25.1% year-on-year increase in daily sales revenue across related industries, with significant growth in durable goods[12] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices rose by 5.11% during the holiday period, while WTI prices increased by 5.43%, reflecting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[14] - Agricultural product wholesale prices fell by 0.60% week-on-week, with vegetable prices decreasing by 1.07% and pork prices dropping by 3.62%[15]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for sectors expected to outperform the market by over 20% in the next six months, while sectors with moderate performance are rated as "Hold" [23]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive sentiment in the real estate market following new policies, with increased viewing and sales activity during the National Day holiday, indicating a potential stabilization in the sector [1]. - International oil prices have been rising due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with concerns over Iranian oil supply disruptions impacting market dynamics [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer sentiment in driving demand across various sectors, particularly in tourism and entertainment, where spending has shown signs of recovery [1]. - The automotive sector is experiencing robust growth in electric vehicle sales, with significant year-on-year increases in sales figures for major manufacturers [7]. - The technology sector, particularly financial IT, is expected to benefit from increased demand as financial institutions invest in core systems and digital transformation initiatives [8]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The report discusses the impact of international events on domestic markets, particularly the rise in oil prices due to Middle Eastern tensions and strong U.S. employment data influencing Federal Reserve policies [1]. Industry Configuration - High dividend sectors are favored, with a focus on underperforming domestic demand sectors expected to rebound [2]. - The report identifies consumer services, home appliances, and non-bank financials as leading sectors during the holiday period [2]. Overseas Market Performance - The report notes that Hong Kong remains attractive to international investors, with a recommendation to focus on financial stocks and technology companies with low valuations [3]. Fixed Income - The report indicates that convertible bonds have significant room for valuation recovery, suggesting a focus on low-priced, small-cap convertible bonds for potential gains [4]. Machinery - The machinery sector is highlighted for its potential recovery, particularly in general equipment and rail transit investments, with expected growth in orders and valuations [5]. Automotive - Electric vehicle sales are noted for their impressive growth, with major manufacturers reporting significant increases in sales figures [7]. Computing - The financial IT sector is expected to see sustained demand due to ongoing digital transformation efforts in financial institutions [8]. Media - The gaming industry is recommended for investment, with a stable market size and low valuation levels for leading companies [9]. Telecommunications - The report emphasizes the growing demand for AI-driven connectivity and the expansion of satellite internet infrastructure as key growth areas [10]. Non-ferrous Metals - The report recommends copper and aluminum as primary investment targets, citing expected demand recovery and supply constraints [11]. Chemicals - The report suggests a focus on light hydrocarbons and coal chemical routes due to rising oil prices and cost advantages [13]. Food and Beverage - The report continues to recommend investments in the liquor sector and leading consumer goods companies, highlighting the long-term growth potential [14][15]. Light Industry - The report suggests focusing on home furnishings and paper industries, anticipating demand recovery driven by policy support [17]. Home Appliances - The report indicates strong sales growth in home appliances during the holiday period, driven by trade-in policies and export demand [18][19].

Performance Summary - The "Central State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) Selection" strategy has achieved an annualized return of 14.99% since 2016, outperforming the CSI Central SOE Index by 10.33%[12] - The cumulative return for the "Central SOEs Selection" strategy in 2023 is 49.41%, and 23.79% in 2024 year-to-date[12] - The "Belt and Road + SOEs" strategy has an annualized return of 20.12% since 2016, with a cumulative return of 50.04% in 2023 and 34.49% in 2024 year-to-date[18] - The "Digital Economy + SOEs" strategy has an annualized return of 14.26% since 2016, with a cumulative return of 34.86% in 2023 and 7.83% in 2024 year-to-date[22] - The "National Security + SOEs" strategy has an annualized return of 19.04% since 2016, with a cumulative return of 56.88% in 2023 and 31.84% in 2024 year-to-date[28] Factor Analysis - The selection factors include dividend yield (TTM), price-to-earnings ratio (TTM), volatility, and company performance metrics such as ROE and net profit growth[7] - The correlation between dividend yield and future returns is positive, indicating that higher dividend yields lead to higher future returns[9] - The "Belt and Road + SOEs" strategy emphasizes ROE and net profit growth over P/E ratio due to the latter's underperformance[18] - The "National Security + SOEs" strategy incorporates ESG factors, reflecting a growing emphasis on sustainability in investment decisions[28]

10月量化资产、风格与行业配置观点 www.swsc.com.cn 西南证券研究发展中心 金融工程团队 2024年10月 内容目录 一、大类资产配置观点 二、大小盘/价值成长风格观点 三、行业轮动观点 四、市场情绪跟踪 1 A股：政策"重拳出击"，强烈看多A股 截至9月30日，西南金工A股择时信号全面看多A股。 基本面信号由负转正，央行降准降息，高频货币指数由1.03升至1.04，信号由负转正。经济指标中高频经济指数显示同比 增长1.92%， 同时9月PMI49.8，经济指标持续回暖。 资金情绪转多，9月最后一周大量资金流入，新发基金规模和融资买入额触发看多信号。 国际影响力信号为1，中美利差持续扩大，人民币汇率持续升值。 改进ERP仍显示A股赔率较高。 A股择时框架 2024年A股择时信号 数据来源: wind、西南证券整理 2 中债：降息政策仍有空间，看多债券 债券信号仍然全面看多，信号为3/3。 基本面：房地产开发投资额延续下行趋势，地产仍有压力；PMI同比虽有上升态势，但经济修复动能仍待观察。 市场利率：R007与1Y国债处于下行趋势，从择时信号角度短期利率发出未触发看空信号。 交易情绪：三十年期国债 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock-bond price ratio suggests a potential rally in the stock market for the fourth quarter, supported by a significant policy announcement on September 24 [1][13] - Historical comparisons show that the current market situation resembles previous phases of recovery, with potential for further upward movement [2][4] - The report highlights that the current market conditions are similar to those in July 2014, where both periods experienced prolonged downturns followed by policy-driven recoveries [4][5] Group 2 - The analysis of past market recoveries indicates that the first phase of a rally typically shows strong performance, with an average increase of 32.4% across historical instances [2] - The report suggests that sectors with relatively low recent performance and low Relative Strength Index (RSI) should be prioritized for investment, specifically utilities, banks, coal, and oil and gas [10][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring sector performance during market corrections, noting that leading sectors can shift dramatically [6][8]

Economic Growth and Targets - The economic growth rate is expected to maintain resilience, with a target of 5% for the year achievable, as the first half of 2024 recorded a growth rate of 5%[1] - The growth rates for Q1 and Q2 were 5.3% and 4.7% respectively, with anticipated recovery in Q3 and Q4, projected between 4.8% and 5.1%[1] - Key industries contributing to GDP growth include industrial, information transmission, software, and leasing services, while other sectors showed a decline in contribution rates[1] Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for stronger fiscal and monetary policies, indicating potential adjustments in reserve requirements and interest rates[15] - As of September, the central bank lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and reduced the 7-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.50%[23] - The issuance of special bonds accelerated, with local governments issuing approximately 3.62 trillion yuan in special bonds by September, achieving 92.7% of the annual target[21] Infrastructure and Investment - Broad infrastructure investment grew by 7.87% year-on-year in the first eight months, while narrow infrastructure investment saw a slower growth of 4.4%[7] - The issuance of special bonds and ultra-long-term bonds is expected to support continued moderate recovery in infrastructure investment, projected to reach around 8% for the year[7] - Manufacturing investment growth was recorded at 9.1% for the first eight months, although a slowdown is anticipated due to external demand fluctuations[3] Consumer Spending Trends - Retail sales growth remained weak, with a total increase of 3.4% year-on-year in the first eight months, and a decline in growth rate noted in August[10] - Service consumption's share increased to 58.17% in the first half of the year, although it remains below the previous year's level[10] - Policies aimed at boosting service consumption are expected to further enhance its share, with significant potential for growth compared to the U.S.[10]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September 2024 increased by 0.7 percentage points to 49.8%, exceeding market expectations but remaining below the expansion threshold for five consecutive months[1] - The new orders index rose to 49.9%, ending a five-month decline, driven by seasonal factors and supportive policies[2] - The production index improved by 1.4 percentage points to 51.2%, indicating a return to the expansion zone as high temperatures and heavy rainfall effects diminished[3] Group 2: Economic Policy and Outlook - A series of monetary policy measures were implemented, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the financial market[4] - The government is expected to enhance fiscal policies to support economic growth, positively impacting the manufacturing sector in October[5] - The employment index remained low at 48.2%, indicating ongoing challenges in the job market despite some recovery in production[6] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Trends - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, reflecting a contraction in the service sector[7] - The service sector's business activity index dropped to 49.9%, slightly below the critical line, influenced by the end of the summer consumption peak[8] - The construction sector showed slight improvement with a business activity index of 50.7%, but still below the average level since 2015[9] Group 4: Import and Export Dynamics - New export orders and import indices fell to 47.5% and 46.1%, respectively, indicating a decline in external demand amid increasing trade tensions[10] - The gap between new export orders and imports narrowed, with new export orders 1.4 percentage points higher than imports[11] - The overall outlook for exports remains challenging due to weak overseas demand and ongoing trade friction risks[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical sector, with a focus on undervalued stocks, overseas expansion, and essential hospital needs as key investment themes [2][8]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical index rose by 11.15% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.57 percentage points, ranking 8th in industry performance. Year-to-date, the pharmaceutical sector has declined by 7.18%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 22.19 percentage points, ranking 29th [2][22]. - The current valuation level for the pharmaceutical industry (PE-TTM) is 28 times, with a premium of 83.57% over the entire A-share market, a 35.73% premium over the A-share market excluding banks, and a 122.82% premium over the CSI 300 [2][23]. - The best-performing sub-sectors this week include hospitals, vaccines, and medical consumables, which rose by 15.6%, 15.0%, and 14.1%, respectively. Year-to-date, the top three performing sub-sectors are APIs, chemical preparations, and pharmaceutical distribution, with increases of 3.0%, 1.6%, and 1.2% [2][29]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy and Key Stocks - The report emphasizes three main investment directions: high-dividend OTC stocks, medical device exports including IVD and respiratory products, and essential medical needs post-medical corruption [2][8]. - Recommended stocks include: - Buy: Betta Pharmaceuticals (300558), Sino Medical (688108), Shanghai Laishi (002252), Rongchang Bio (688331), Yihe Jiaye (301367), Mayinglong (600993), and Meihua Medical (301363) [9][12]. - Hold: Hengrui Medicine (600276), New Industry (300832), East China Pharmaceutical (000963), and Ganli Pharmaceutical (603087) [9][12]. Market Performance - The report notes that the recommended stock portfolio increased by 11.7% last week, outperforming the market by 3.2 percentage points and the pharmaceutical index by 0.5 percentage points [12][21]. - The stable stock portfolio rose by 8.9%, outperforming the market by 0.4 percentage points but underperforming the pharmaceutical index by 2.3 percentage points [15][21]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board portfolio increased by 14.8%, underperforming the market by 6.4 percentage points but outperforming the pharmaceutical index by 3.7 percentage points [18][21]. - The Hong Kong stock portfolio rose by 6.0%, underperforming the market by 3.6 percentage points and the pharmaceutical index by 1.0 percentage point [21].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the machinery industry, focusing on sectors with clear growth potential and government support [1]. Core Viewpoints - General Equipment: 2024 marks a transition in the manufacturing inventory cycle, with expectations for improved demand despite current weak conditions. The inventory cycle is crucial for investment in general equipment, with orders expected to improve [2][4]. - Rail Transit Equipment: High investment levels are expected to continue in 2024, with a significant acceleration in railway investment anticipated in the second half of the year. The railway equipment sector is projected to see both order and valuation increases [2][31]. - Engineering Machinery: Short-term domestic demand is stabilizing, with overseas exports exceeding expectations. The long-term outlook remains positive as domestic demand is expected to bottom out [2][41]. - New Economy: The report emphasizes the importance of investing in low-altitude economy and humanoid robots, with 2024 being a pivotal year for the latter's production [2][44]. - Alpha Opportunities in Sub-sectors: Beyond the highlighted sectors, the report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-growth companies in niche markets [2]. Summary by Sections General Equipment - The manufacturing inventory cycle is transitioning from active destocking to passive destocking and active restocking, with demand expectations improving due to policy support [2][4]. - As of December 2023, industrial inventory levels began to recover, indicating a potential shift towards restocking [4][6]. Rail Transit Equipment - The railway investment for January to August 2024 reached 477.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, with expectations for continued high investment levels [2][31]. - The railway operational mileage is projected to grow significantly by 2035, indicating a robust long-term outlook for the sector [28][29]. Engineering Machinery - Domestic excavator sales are expected to grow by 17% year-on-year in September 2024, with a recovery in demand anticipated [37][41]. - The global engineering machinery market is valued at over 1 trillion USD, with Chinese manufacturers increasing their market share internationally [41][42]. New Economy - The low-altitude economy market is projected to reach 6 trillion yuan by 2035, with significant growth opportunities in the humanoid robot sector [44][45]. - The report suggests focusing on key components and technologies within the humanoid robot industry for investment [46]. Alpha Opportunities in Sub-sectors - The report highlights the importance of identifying undervalued companies with growth potential across various sub-sectors, including rail transit and engineering machinery [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the computer industry, suggesting it is a high-elasticity sector benefiting from cyclical trends [2][5]. Core Insights - The computer industry is currently experiencing a high PE ratio of 42 times, which is recognized for its growth potential despite being lower than the historical average of 52 times over the past decade, indicating significant allocation value [2][5]. - Fund holdings in the computer sector have decreased, with a total market value of 37.89 billion yuan in Q2 2024, reflecting a low allocation ratio of 1.7%, which is the lowest in the past five years, suggesting a potential bottoming out of the sector [2][5]. - Recent policy measures have been introduced to stimulate the market, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and measures to encourage long-term capital inflow, which are expected to enhance trading volumes and positively impact financial IT sectors [3][13]. Summary by Sections Industry Review - As of September 30, 2024, the computer industry's PE (TTM, overall method, excluding negative values) stands at 42 times, which is high among first-level industries, indicating continued market recognition of its growth potential [2]. - The historical average PE for the computer index over the past decade is 52 times, and the current PE is significantly lower than this average, presenting a notable investment opportunity [2]. - The total market value of heavy-holding stocks in the computer sector was 37.89 billion yuan in Q2 2024, with a low allocation ratio of 1.7%, marking a significant decline and highlighting the sector's bottom characteristics [2]. Industry Strategy - From September 24 to September 26, multiple policy measures were announced, leading to a significant increase in market activity, with trading volumes reaching 2.4 trillion yuan on September 30, a 74% increase from the previous day [3][13]. - The financial IT sector is expected to benefit from increased trading demand and the promotion of financial innovation, with a focus on both C-end trading software and B-end financial IT systems [13][16]. - The promotion of financial innovation is progressing with a pilot program expanding from 47 institutions in 2020 to 198 institutions by 2021, indicating a growing demand for IT systems in financial institutions [16].