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海底捞:Waiting for new initiatives to shine,with yields
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-09-04 01:39
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$ 15.94, down from the previous target price of HK$ 21.52, reflecting a 20% upside from the current price of HK$ 13.28 [2][3][8]. Core Views - Haidilao's 1H24 results were roughly in line with expectations, showing a 14% year-on-year increase in sales, but net profit dropped by 10% year-on-year due to higher staff costs [6][2]. - The company is expected to face challenges in 2H24, including macroeconomic pressures and high staff costs, but potential upside could come from new store openings and initiatives from the new CEO to improve margins [2][6]. - The report highlights Haidilao's strong recovery in same-store sales growth (SSSG), outperforming the catering industry, driven by superior customer service and effective marketing strategies [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 41,453 million in FY23A to RMB 47,309 million in FY24E, representing a 14.1% year-on-year growth [3][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 4,495.4 million in FY23A to RMB 4,627.2 million in FY24E, reflecting a 2.4% year-on-year growth [3][11]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve to 60.1% in FY24E, up from 59.2% in FY23A, aided by lower input costs and improved supply chain efficiency [7][11]. Earnings Revision - The report revises net profit forecasts for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E down by 7%, 1%, and up by 4% respectively, primarily due to higher staff costs but better gross profit margins [7][2]. - The diluted EPS for FY24E is adjusted to RMB 0.827, down from RMB 0.893, reflecting a 7.4% decrease [7][2]. Store Expansion and Initiatives - Haidilao aims to increase its number of stores by a mid-single-digit percentage in FY24E, with plans to open 400 to 500 stores under the new Yanqing Barbecue Shop brand over the next three years [2][10]. - The "Red pomegranate" project is highlighted as a key multi-brand development strategy, which is crucial for the company's future growth [2][10]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 15x for FY24E, which is considered not too demanding, especially with a dividend yield of 6% [2][3]. - The report notes that Haidilao's P/B ratio is projected to be 3.3x for FY24E, with a return on equity (ROE) of 29.2% [3][8].
卓胜微:Revenue grew while GPM deteriorated due to intense competition and capacity ramp-up
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-09-04 00:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Maxscend with an adjusted target price (TP) of RMB100, down from the previous TP of RMB174, indicating a potential upside of 50.7% from the current price of RMB66.35 [2][4]. Core Insights - Maxscend's revenue grew by 37% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB2.3 billion in 1H24, primarily driven by clients' restocking behavior, although gross profit margin (GPM) declined to 42.1%, down 6.9 percentage points from 1H23 due to an unfavorable revenue mix and intensified competition [2]. - The discrete products revenue increased by 15% YoY in 1H24, while module products surged by 81% YoY, with module revenue contribution rising from 29% in 2022 to 45% in 1H24 [2]. - Future growth is expected to be driven by the modulization trend in the RFFE sector, with projected module sales growth of 37% and 30% YoY for 2024 and 2025, respectively [2]. - Despite a challenging market environment, Maxscend is anticipated to benefit from the semiconductor localization trend in China, with its fabrication capabilities serving as a cornerstone for long-term development [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E are RMB5,002 million, RMB6,069 million, and RMB7,154 million, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 6% and 8% from previous estimates for FY25E and FY26E [5][6]. - Gross profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB2,094 million, with a gross margin of 41.9%, while net profit is projected at RMB818 million, translating to an EPS of RMB1.53 [5][6]. - The report indicates a significant reduction in earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with cuts of 31% and 27% due to GPM pressures from a prolonged price war [2][5].
迈瑞医疗:Robust performance in a challenging industry environment
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-09-04 00:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Mindray, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [2][13]. Core Insights - Mindray achieved a revenue of RMB20.5 billion in 1H24, reflecting an 11.1% year-over-year increase, and reported an attributable net profit of RMB7.6 billion, up 17.4% YoY [2]. - Despite challenges in the healthcare industry, including regulatory adjustments and delays in medical equipment renewals, the company demonstrated resilience through growth in its IVD business and high-end ultrasound products [2]. - The gross margin increased by 0.7 percentage points YoY to 66.3% in 1H24, driven by the rising revenue share from IVD reagents and high-end ultrasound sales [2]. - A mid-term dividend plan was announced, with a total cash dividend of approximately RMB4.9 billion, representing a payout ratio of over 65% [2]. Revenue Performance - The domestic equipment business faced a 12% YoY revenue decline in 1H24 due to cautious bidding and procurement activities in public hospitals [2]. - The Patient Monitoring and Life Support (PMLS) segment saw a 7.6% YoY revenue decrease, with domestic revenue dropping by about 20% [2]. - The Medical Imaging segment experienced a 15.5% YoY revenue growth, attributed to increased sales of high-end ultrasound products, which grew by over 40% [2]. Business Shift - The IVD reagent business grew by 28% YoY to RMB7.7 billion, accounting for over 37% of total revenue, with domestic IVD revenue increasing by over 25% [2]. - The minimally invasive surgery business grew by 90% YoY in 1H24, and the acquisition of APT Medical enhanced Mindray's cardiovascular consumables offerings [2]. - Consumables-related businesses, led by IVD, now account for over 50% of the company's domestic revenue [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E are RMB40.6 billion, RMB48.8 billion, and RMB57.4 billion, respectively, with expected YoY growth rates of 16.3%, 20.2%, and 17.7% [3][10]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E are RMB13.6 billion, RMB16.2 billion, and RMB19.1 billion, with YoY growth rates of 19.3%, 19.0%, and 17.4% [3][10]. - The target price is adjusted to RMB352.84, reflecting a 40.7% upside from the current price of RMB250.80 [2][3].
闻泰科技:1H24 results review: Challenging 1H; looking for recovery in 2H
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-09-04 00:00
2 Sep 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Wingtech (600745 CH) 1H24 results review: Challenging 1H; looking for recovery in 2H Wingtech 1H24 sales were up 15% YoY to RMB33.6bn, driven by strong ODM sales (up 27% YoY), partially offset by weaker semiconductor sales (down 8% YoY). NP declined 89% YoY to RMB140mn, as GPM deteriorated to 9.5% in 1H24 (vs. 17.6%/14.7% in 1H23/2H23). Semi. GPM showed signs of recovery (up 7.7ppt in 2Q). We expect ODM GPM to improve in 2H24 to ...
联影医疗:Resilient 1H24 performance amid market headwinds
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-09-04 00:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for United Imaging, with a target price adjusted to RMB 125.83, indicating a potential upside of 19.0% from the current price of RMB 105.71 [2][3]. Core Insights - United Imaging demonstrated resilient performance in 1H24, with revenue of RMB 5,333 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, and attributable net profit rising by 1.3% to RMB 950 million despite market challenges [2]. - The company's gross margin improved by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year to 50.4% in 1H24, driven by increased revenue from mid-to-high-end products and services [2]. - The interim dividend plan announced includes a total cash dividend of approximately RMB 98.2 million, representing a payout ratio of over 10% [2]. Revenue Performance - In 1H24, equipment revenue decreased by 1.8% year-on-year to RMB 4,540 million, primarily due to delays in procurement activities [2]. - The overseas business achieved revenue of RMB 933 million, up 29.9% year-on-year, accounting for 17.5% of total revenue, with significant growth in Asia-Pacific, North America, and emerging markets [2]. - Revenue from maintenance services increased by 23.8% year-on-year to RMB 617 million, contributing 11.6% to total revenue [2]. Market Share and Product Innovation - United Imaging expanded its market share in the domestic medical equipment market, with significant gains in high-end and ultra-high-end products [2]. - The market share of mid-to-high-end CT systems increased by 11 percentage points year-on-year, while ultra-high-end CT systems saw an 8 percentage point increase [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at RMB 11,501 million, with expected growth of 0.8% year-on-year, followed by a projected increase to RMB 14,337 million in FY25E [3][6]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB 2,021 million, with a growth forecast of 2.4% year-on-year [3][6]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in hospital procurement starting from 4Q24 [2].
亚朵:Guidance raised again plus massive dividends
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-09-03 23:44
2 Sep 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) Guidance raised again plus massive dividends The hotel sector continues to be under pressure in 3Q24E and we are still cautious about a potential improvement in 4Q24E. However, Atour's retail sales business and better-than-expected sales of hotel supplies can still more than offset the drags from its hotel segment. Moreover, the new dividend payout policy is a big positive surprise and could raise its FY ...
中国人寿:Strong lift in banca NBV margin; investment income may continue to rebound in 2H24
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-09-03 23:43
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for China Life with a revised 12-month target price of HK$15.5, implying a 31.1% upside from the current price of HK$11.82 [4][6]. Core Insights - China Life reported strong first-half results with a year-on-year increase in new business value (NBV) of 18.6% to RMB32.3 billion and a 11.4% growth in embedded value (EV) to RMB1.4 trillion [2][11]. - Investment income surged 140.3% year-on-year to RMB56.7 billion, significantly contributing to a 27.6% increase in pre-tax profit to RMB47.9 billion in 1H24 [2][10]. - The bancassurance segment showed remarkable margin expansion, with NBV margin increasing by 13.4 percentage points to over 17% [2][11]. Financial Performance - Total investment assets reached a record high of RMB6.1 trillion, with a notable increase in fair value through other comprehensive income (FVOCI) stocks, which rose 131% from the beginning of the year to RMB34.1 billion [2][15]. - The company achieved a net investment yield of 3.33% and a total investment yield of 3.59% in 1H24, reflecting a positive investment variance in EV of RMB6.7 billion [10][15]. - The first-year regular premiums (FYRP) grew by 9.4% year-on-year to RMB42.6 billion, accounting for 43.8% of total FYRP in 1H24 [2][12]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 0.2x P/EV and 0.6x P/B for FY24E, indicating potential for a stock re-rating based on resilient financial results [6][8]. - The report highlights a target price of HK$15.5 based on a P/EV versus return on embedded value (ROEV) approach, reflecting improved underwriting and investment outcomes [6][8]. Business Segments - The agency channel remains the primary contributor to NBV, accounting for 90.8% of total NBV in 1H24, with a margin increase to 30.6% [11][12]. - The bancassurance channel experienced a significant decline in single-paid premiums, down 78.2% year-on-year, indicating a strategic shift towards higher-margin products [2][11]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a rebound in investment income in the second half of 2024, supported by a low comparative base from the previous year [2][6]. - Management expects a diversification in product mix with a higher proportion of participating policies following recent interest rate cuts [2][11].
三一重工:Expect a better 2H24E but consensus remains high; Maintain HOLD
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-09-03 23:30
2 Sep 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update SANY Heavy (600031 CH) Expect a better 2H24E but consensus remains high; Maintain HOLD During the post-results call, SANY Heavy (SANY) remained positive on the overseas outlook despite the recent weakness of excavators in Europe and the US. SANY expects the sales in the US to see potential stabilisation in 2025E, while the growth in emerging countries will continue to be strong. For 2H24E, SANY expects China's sales to stabilize ...
赛富时:cRPO growth reaccelerates; eyes on new AI product launch
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-08-31 04:23
Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of US$336.50, reflecting a 30.9% upside from the current price of US$257.01 [4][8] Core Insights - Salesforce reported a total revenue growth of 8% YoY to US$9.33 billion in 2QFY25, aligning with consensus estimates, while non-GAAP operating income increased by 16% YoY to US$3.14 billion, exceeding consensus by 6% due to effective expense management [2][3] - cRPO growth reaccelerated to +11% YoY on a constant currency basis, driven by strong multi-cloud large deals and early renewals, easing investor concerns regarding decelerating RPO growth [2][3] - Management anticipates a sustained measured buying environment, guiding total revenue for 3QFY25E to grow by 7% YoY to US$9.31-9.36 billion, while maintaining FY25E revenue guidance of US$37.7-38.0 billion (+8-9% YoY) [2][3] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at US$37.8 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to reach US$9.7 billion, translating to an adjusted EPS of US$9.94 [3][10] - Non-GAAP operating margin guidance for FY25E has been raised to 32.8%, up from the previous 32.5%, reflecting efficiency gains from disciplined expense control [2][3][7] - The number of paid Data Cloud customers grew by 130% YoY, with AI-related bookings more than doubling QoQ, indicating strong demand for Salesforce's AI offerings [2][3] Segment Performance - Revenue growth by segment in 2QFY25 showed increases of 9% in sales, 10% in service, 9% in platform & other, 6% in marketing & commerce, and 13% in integration & analytics [2][3] - Multi-cloud deals accounted for approximately 80% of new business in 2QFY25, highlighting the importance of multi-cloud adoption as a growth driver [2][3] Valuation - The target price of US$336.50 is based on a 20x FY25E EV/EBITDA, which is at a discount to the sector average of 22x, reflecting Salesforce's earnings growth entering a more mature stage [4][8][9]
宝尊电商:2Q loss reduction trend better than expectation
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-08-31 04:22
Investment Rating - The report assigns a BUY rating to Baozun with a new SOTP-based target price of US$3.20, reflecting a potential upside of 44.1% from the current price of US$2.22 [2][3]. Core Insights - Baozun's 2Q24 results exceeded expectations, with total revenue of RMB2.4 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase, driven by a 9% increase in services revenue. The non-GAAP net loss narrowed to RMB3.9 million from RMB4.4 million in 2Q23, significantly better than the consensus estimate of RMB16.6 million [2]. - The company has seen a turnaround in its E-commerce segment, with positive year-over-year growth after ten consecutive quarters of contraction, supported by strong growth in Douyin-related business and exclusive distribution services [2]. - The management anticipates continued improvement in the second half of 2024, despite challenges in offline traffic affecting the Baozun Brand Management segment [2]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, total revenue is expected to grow by 10% for Baozun Brand Management (BBM) and 4.5% for Baozun E-commerce (BEC). The non-GAAP operating loss for BBM is projected to narrow to RMB170 million, while the overall non-GAAP operating loss for Baozun is expected to reduce to RMB2.8 million [2][6]. - The report outlines a financial outlook with revenue projections of RMB9.35 billion for FY24E, reflecting a 6.1% year-over-year growth, and an adjusted net profit forecast of a loss of RMB68.3 million [6][10]. Valuation Metrics - The SOTP valuation includes RMB501 million for BEC based on a 3.0x 2024E EV/EBIT multiple and RMB139 million for BBM based on a 0.1x 2024E EV/sales multiple, along with RMB2.9 billion in net cash [2][7]. - The report applies a 60% holding discount to the group-level valuation, indicating expectations for enhanced shareholder returns to unlock net cash value [2][7].