Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM) with a target price of US$70.00, reflecting a potential upside of 22.2% from the current price of US$57.30 [4][20]. Core Insights - Trip.com reported a total revenue of RMB12.8 billion for 4Q24, representing a 23% year-over-year increase, which was 4% above Bloomberg consensus estimates. The non-GAAP operating income was RMB2.8 billion, also exceeding consensus by 4% due to better-than-expected operating expenses [1]. - For 2024, Trip.com achieved a revenue growth of 20% year-over-year, totaling RMB53.4 billion, with non-GAAP operating profit and net profit growing by 23% and 38% year-over-year, respectively [1]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 16% year-over-year for 1Q25, aligning with consensus expectations, driven by solid booking volume growth in the domestic hotel business [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 4Q24, Trip.com’s non-GAAP operating profit margin (OPM) was 21.6%, slightly better than consensus, while the gross profit margin (GPM) was 79.1%, which was below expectations [3]. - The company plans to increase investments to support long-term growth, which may lead to short-term margin pressures but is expected to enhance overall business performance in the future [3]. Revenue Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been slightly increased by 1% to RMB61.6 billion, while the non-GAAP net profit forecast has been reduced by 1% due to anticipated slower growth in the outbound travel segment [12]. - The report estimates that Trip.com’s international business will see a revenue growth of 60% year-over-year in 2025, supported by increased investments [2]. Market Position - Trip.com’s outbound travel bookings have recovered to over 120% of 2019 levels in 4Q24, outperforming the overall market by approximately 30-40 percentage points [2]. - The company’s share price has dropped by 11% post-results, which the report suggests has already priced in concerns regarding potential margin contraction in 2025 [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [17]. Core Insights - CSPC Pharmaceutical is experiencing an earnings decline primarily due to pricing pressure on its finished drug sales, with a forecasted net profit drop of 27.5% YoY for FY24 [7]. - The company anticipates a recovery in sales and net profit growth in FY25, driven by new product launches and out-licensing deals [7]. - The target price remains unchanged at HK$5.97, reflecting a potential upside of 18.8% from the current price of HK$5.03 [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY22 was RMB 30,937 million, with a slight increase to RMB 31,450 million in FY23, but expected to decline to RMB 29,040 million in FY24, followed by a recovery to RMB 30,388 million in FY25 and RMB 31,300 million in FY26 [2][12]. - Net profit decreased from RMB 6,232.1 million in FY22 to RMB 6,072.7 million in FY23, with a significant drop expected to RMB 4,404.9 million in FY24, before rebounding to RMB 5,053.5 million in FY25 and RMB 5,135.5 million in FY26 [2][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decline from RMB 0.51 in FY22 to RMB 0.38 in FY24, with a slight recovery to RMB 0.43 in FY25 and RMB 0.44 in FY26 [2][12]. Sales Performance - Finished drug sales are projected to decrease by 7% YoY to RMB 23.84 billion in FY24, with a notable 19.3% YoY decline in Q4 FY24 [7]. - Oncology revenue is expected to decline by 28%, while cardiovascular drug sales are forecasted to fall by 15% due to pricing pressures and exclusion from VBP rounds [7]. New Product Development - CSPC aims to achieve RMB 2.0 billion in sales from new products in FY24, with plans to double this revenue in FY25, focusing on products like Mingfule and Kelingda [7]. - The company has successfully out-licensed several innovative assets and has multiple products in clinical trials, indicating a strong pipeline for future growth [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 168.08 RMB, representing a potential upside of 19.6% from the current price of 140.52 RMB [3][6][12]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a traditional equipment manufacturer to a smart imaging solution provider by deeply integrating AI applications into its product line, enhancing diagnostic support and data processing capabilities [1][6]. - The collaboration with its AI subsidiary, United Imaging Intelligence, is expected to strengthen the company's competitive edge in the medical imaging market, particularly through the "Device + AI" synergy [1][12]. - The report anticipates a recovery in performance due to ongoing medical equipment tender activities and a favorable policy environment for equipment upgrades and AI application penetration [13][12]. Financial Summary - **Sales Revenue (Million RMB)**: - FY22A: 9,238 - FY23A: 11,411 (27.4% YoY growth) - FY24E: 10,852 (-4.9% YoY decline) - FY25E: 13,194 (21.6% YoY growth) - FY26E: 16,097 (22.0% YoY growth) [2] - **Net Profit (Million RMB)**: - FY22A: 1,650.1 - FY23A: 1,977.8 (17.6% YoY growth) - FY24E: 1,573.1 (-20.5% YoY decline) - FY25E: 2,123.9 (35.0% YoY growth) - FY26E: 2,611.4 (23.0% YoY growth) [2] - **Adjusted Net Profit (Million RMB)**: - FY22A: 1,328 - FY23A: 1,665 - FY24E: 1,342 - FY25E: 1,962 - FY26E: 2,449 [2] - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio**: - FY23A: 58.6 - FY24E: 73.6 - FY25E: 54.5 - FY26E: 44.3 [2] Market Position and Shareholder Structure - The company has a market capitalization of approximately 106.26 billion RMB and a significant shareholder structure, with United Imaging Technology Group holding 20.3% and Shanghai United Investment Co., Ltd. holding 16.4% [3][4]. - The company has shown strong stock performance, with a 33.5% absolute return over six months [5]. AI Integration and Product Development - United Imaging Intelligence has developed over 100 AI medical products, with numerous certifications including 12 NMPA Class III certificates and 15 FDA approvals, indicating a strong competitive position in the AI medical imaging sector [6][7]. - The integration of AI algorithms into imaging devices enhances operational efficiency and image quality, positioning the company favorably in the market [8][11]. Future Outlook - The report projects a significant recovery in the company's performance in 2025, driven by a resurgence in medical equipment tenders and a supportive policy environment for AI applications in healthcare [13][12]. - The DCF model used in the report estimates a per-share value of 168.08 RMB, based on a WACC of 9.0% and a perpetual growth rate of 4.1% [18].

行业点评 科技行业 -工业富联2024业绩解读：2025年AI服务器需求依旧强劲 工业富联（601138 CH，未评级）2024年业绩快报显示，收入/净利润同比增长28/10%，受益于云计算和品 牌客户对AI服务器需求驱动云计算业务强劲增长，以及通用服务器市场复苏。展望2025年上半年，尽管市场担 心DeepSeek的影响会导致计算需求放缓，但我们仍然对全球人工智能基础设施投资加速以及GB200/GB300 AI服务器机架增长持正面看法，全球主要CSP 用于2025年算力投入和大模型升级的资本支出指引可作为明 证。我们相信AI服务器供应链将继续受益，包括比亚迪电子、鸿腾精密和立讯精密。 中国保险行业 - 4Q24保险资金年化财务投资收益率连续第五个季度回升 保险资金规模：2024年全行业保险资金运用余额33.26万亿元，同比+15.1%，高于行业保费收入增速 11.2%；其中，人身险公司保险资金运用余额29.95万亿元，同比+15.8% （人身险保费收入增速13.3%）， 占比90.1%；财产险公司保险资金运用余额2.2万亿元，同比+9.7%（财产险保费收入增速5.3%），占比 6.7%。 投资收益率：4Q2 ...

Market Trends - Chinese stock market experienced a pullback on February 24, with technology, healthcare, and telecommunications sectors leading the decline in Hong Kong stocks[1] - U.S. investment policies are increasing risk aversion, benefiting defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities[1] - U.S. restrictions on investments in sensitive industries may prompt China to boost domestic demand, leading to a significant rise in the real estate sector[1] Economic Indicators - U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, while Treasury futures prices fell, indicating a potential tightening of monetary policy despite a fragile economic recovery[1] - The Chinese yuan remained stable, with the central bank showing intentions to stabilize the currency amid rising interest rates in the money market[1] Corporate Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized support for leading technology firms and strategic enterprises, indicating a continued focus on financing for tech companies[1] - The return of large Chinese companies to Hong Kong is ongoing, but smaller firms face challenges due to strategic, compliance, and regulatory issues[1] European Market Insights - European stocks saw a slight decline, with the German election results providing some clarity, while French stocks dragged down the overall market[2] - Germany's proposed €200 billion defense spending plan is expected to boost defense sector stocks, despite concerns over strict fiscal rules limiting structural deficits[2] U.S. Market Performance - U.S. stock markets faced consecutive declines, particularly in information technology and consumer discretionary sectors, while healthcare and financial sectors showed some resilience[3] - The Dallas Fed's business activity index fell into contraction territory, adding to signs of economic weakness in the U.S.[3] Commodity Movements - Oil prices saw a slight increase, supported by Iraq's compensation commitments, while gold prices reached new highs due to rising risk aversion and a weaker dollar[4] - Gold prices have increased by 12% year-to-date, with significant inflows into gold ETFs marking the largest since 2022[4]

Macro Economic Overview - The report forecasts the USD/CNY exchange rate to reach 7.48, 7.33, and 7.55 by the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with Bloomberg's median market predictions being 7.45 and 7.35 for 2025 and 2026 [2] - The Chinese economy is expected to continue its recovery in 2025, but may slow down again in 2026, with no intention from policymakers to seek a significant depreciation of the RMB to boost exports [5] Company Analysis Bilibili (BILI US) - Bilibili reported Q4 2024 revenue of 7.73 billion RMB, a 22% year-on-year increase, and an adjusted net profit of 453 million RMB, significantly exceeding market expectations [6] - The company anticipates continued robust revenue growth in its advertising and mobile gaming segments, leading to an upward revision of FY25-FY26 earnings forecasts by 7-13% [6] NetEase (NTES US) - NetEase's Q4 2024 revenue decreased by 1.4% to 26.7 billion RMB, aligning with market expectations, while operating profit increased by 13.9% to 7.8 billion RMB [6] - The company expects new game launches to drive revenue growth in FY25, with a slight downward adjustment of total revenue forecasts by 2-3% [6] Alibaba (BABA US) - Alibaba's Q3 FY25 revenue reached 280.2 billion RMB, a 7.6% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations [7] - The company is optimistic about EBITA growth prospects for FY26, driven by increased adoption of its "full-site push" strategy and narrowing losses in its AIDC segment [8] Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) - Yancoal reported a net profit of 1.2 billion AUD for 2024, a 33% decline but 8% above expectations, and announced a final dividend of 0.52 AUD per share [8] - The company maintains production and cost guidance for 2025 similar to 2024, with increased capital expenditure anticipated [8] Weir Semiconductor (603501 CH) - Weir Semiconductor is positioned to benefit from the acceleration of AI applications in edge devices and the penetration of smart driving systems in vehicles [8] - The company expects revenue to grow by 27% in 2025, reaching 33 billion RMB, driven by sales growth in mobile and automotive CIS [8]

Group 1: Impact of U.S. Investment Policy - Trump's "America First" investment policy emphasizes national security, increasing restrictions on cross-border investments in sensitive industries, which may weaken international investor confidence[1] - The policy is expected to reduce U.S. cross-border investment activities with non-allied countries, slightly lowering U.S. GDP growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 and 2% in 2026[3] - The restrictions may lead to a decrease in U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) and outward direct investment (ODI), which have historically accounted for 1%-1.5% of GDP over the past decade[1] Group 2: Effects on China - The policy will negatively impact China’s cross-border investment activities, potentially reducing China's GDP growth, particularly in the outward-oriented sectors, with FDI and securities investment flows between China and the U.S. averaging 0.5%-1% of GDP from 2014 to 2023[3] - China is likely to increase domestic demand support and accelerate technological self-reliance, while enhancing trade and investment ties with non-U.S. regions[1] - Despite short-term negative impacts on market confidence, China's GDP growth is projected to remain around 5% for the year, with Q4 2024 expected to rise to 5.4%[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for NetEase Cloud Music, with a target price raised to HK$202.5 from the previous HK$115.0, indicating an upside potential of 18.6% from the current price of HK$170.70 [1][3][8]. Core Insights - NetEase Cloud Music reported a total revenue of RMB7.95 billion for FY24, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, which aligns with consensus estimates. Adjusted net profit surged by 108% year-over-year to RMB1.70 billion, exceeding consensus by 20%, primarily due to enhanced profitability in the online music segment and effective operational expense control [1][2]. - The company plans to focus on improving user experience to unlock long-term growth opportunities in FY25E, with expectations of a 15% year-over-year growth in online music services revenue driven by subscriber growth [1][5]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved significantly, rising by 3.6 percentage points year-over-year to 32.4% in the second half of FY24, with forecasts indicating further GPM expansion to 35.4% in FY25 [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: FY24 revenue was RMB7.95 billion, with projections of RMB8.08 billion for FY25E and RMB8.77 billion for FY26E, indicating a gradual recovery and growth trajectory [2][11]. - **Profitability Metrics**: Adjusted net profit is expected to grow from RMB1.70 billion in FY24 to RMB1.88 billion in FY25E, with adjusted net margins improving from 21.1% in 2H24 to 23.3% in FY25E [2][6][11]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report values NetEase Cloud Music at a P/E of 21x for FY25E, which is at a discount compared to global peers, reflecting the competitive landscape in China's online content sector [8][9]. User Engagement and Market Strategy - The company has seen steady growth in monthly active users (MAUs) and user engagement, attributed to a distinctive content ecosystem and improved personalized recommendations [5]. - Key initiatives for FY25E include enriching the content library, fostering community development, enhancing user experience to drive payment willingness, and improving operational efficiency [5][6]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - NetEase Cloud Music's online music services revenue increased by 20% year-over-year in the second half of FY24, with membership subscriptions growing by 19% year-over-year [5][6]. - The company has adopted a more prudent operational approach, particularly in social entertainment, leading to a 33% year-over-year decline in related revenue as it focuses on its core music business [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for AIA Group Ltd. with a target price of HK$94.0, implying a potential upside of 62.1% from the current price of HK$58.0 [1][7]. Core Insights - AIA's share price fell 17.3% in FY24, underperforming key benchmarks despite resilient Value of New Business (VNB) growth and a solid financial position [1]. - The report anticipates a 20% increase in full-year VNB on a Constant Exchange Rate (CER) basis, with Group Operating Profit After Tax (OPAT) expected to grow 7% YoY in FY24 [1][7]. - Total shareholder return is projected to rise to approximately 8% in FY24, driven by a 3% dividend yield and around 5% return from buybacks [1][7]. Financial Performance - AIA's VNB is expected to reach US$4.77 billion in FY24, reflecting a 20% increase on a CER basis, with a slowdown in growth anticipated in the second half of the year [7]. - Group OPAT is projected to increase to US$6.639 billion in FY24, with a corresponding Operating EPS of US$0.59 [8]. - The report highlights a significant buyback program completion of US$12 billion, with expectations for a new buyback announcement in mid-March 2025 [1][7]. Market Position - AIA's share price performance has lagged behind major indices, with the stock trading at 1.0x FY25E Price to Embedded Value (P/EV), near historical lows [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sustained long-term value growth to enhance investor confidence and facilitate further buybacks [7]. Shareholder Returns - The report indicates that AIA's management remains focused on shareholder returns, with an estimated US$3.5 billion allocated for buybacks in FY24 [7]. - The underlying free surplus generation is projected to be US$6.7 billion, up 11% YoY, which could strengthen the Group's capital position for additional shareholder paybacks [7].