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腾讯控股:Inline 2Q24 results; games business to drive revenue growth acceleration in 2H24E
招银国际· 2024-08-15 02:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Tencent with a target price of HK$480.0, derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach [1][22]. Core Insights - Tencent's total revenue for 2Q24 grew by 8% YoY to RMB161.1 billion, aligning with estimates, while non-IFRS net income surged by 53% YoY to RMB57.3 billion, exceeding expectations [1]. - The gaming segment showed a solid recovery, with revenue increasing by 9% YoY to RMB48.5 billion, driven by successful game launches and recovery of flagship titles [1][17]. - Online advertising revenue grew by 19% YoY to RMB29.9 billion, supported by strong performance in Video Accounts and long-form video [1]. - The fintech and business services segment experienced slower growth, with revenue up by 4% YoY to RMB50.4 billion, reflecting challenges in consumer loan revenue [1][11]. - Gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 5.8 percentage points YoY to 53.5%, driven by high-margin revenue streams [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue is projected to reach RMB658.2 billion in FY24E, with adjusted net profit expected at RMB214.6 billion, reflecting a CAGR of 18% from FY24 to FY26 [18][20]. - The adjusted EPS for FY24E is forecasted at RMB22.16, with a P/E ratio of 19.7x [18][20]. Business Segment Valuation - The valuation for the online games segment is estimated at HK$190.6 per share, while the social network services (SNS) business is valued at HK$30.0 per share [5][7]. - The fintech business is valued at HK$79.7 per share, reflecting Tencent's strong position in China's digital payment market [6][7]. - The advertising business is valued at HK$83.5 per share, based on a premium P/E ratio due to resilient ad revenue growth [22]. Financial Summary - Tencent's total assets are projected to grow from RMB1,635.9 billion in 2024E to RMB2,085.6 billion by 2026E, indicating strong financial health [13][30]. - The company is expected to maintain a robust cash position, with cash and equivalents projected at RMB152.4 billion in 2024E [13].
中国利郎:Guidance cut amid uncertainties in 2H24E
招银国际· 2024-08-14 14:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for China Lilang, primarily due to its attractive yield of 9% and valuation of 9x FY24E P/E, despite a cautious outlook for 2H24E [2][4]. Core Views - The company has revised down its FY24E retail sales growth target to 10% from 15%, reflecting macroeconomic uncertainties and company-specific challenges such as DTC transformation and increased operating expenses [2][6]. - Despite a robust new retail sales growth of 37% in 1H24E, the overall sales growth is expected to slow down due to a high base from the previous year and unclear momentum in retail sales [2][6]. - The partnership with Descente to develop the Munsingwear brand in China is seen as a positive move that could enhance growth in the golf wear segment [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3,544 million in FY23A to RMB 3,845 million in FY24E, representing an 8.5% year-on-year growth [3][10]. - Net profit is expected to decrease slightly from RMB 530.4 million in FY23A to RMB 528.1 million in FY24E, indicating a 0.4% decline [3][10]. - The company’s operating profit is forecasted to increase from RMB 610.6 million in FY23A to RMB 634 million in FY24E, reflecting a 3.9% growth [3][10]. Earnings Revision - FY24E net profit estimates have been revised down by 16% to RMB 528 million, primarily due to slower-than-expected sales growth and increased operating expenses [7][8]. - The gross profit margin is expected to decline to 46.7% in FY24E from 48.2% in FY23A, reflecting the impact of DTC transformation and a shift in sales mix [7][8]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of China Lilang is approximately HK$ 4,897.7 million, with a target price of HK$ 4.85, indicating an upside potential of 18.6% from the current price of HK$ 4.09 [4][12]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 13.9% over the past three months, reflecting broader market challenges [4][12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to open its first store in Malaysia as part of its overseas expansion strategy, leveraging its leadership in menswear and value-for-money products [6][12]. - The multi-brand strategy has been launched, with a focus on enhancing product and brand upgrades, which is expected to support long-term growth [2][6].
FIT HON TENG:2Q24 在线 ; 电源母线和液冷订单的乐观指导获胜
招银国际· 2024-08-14 03:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for FIT Hon Teng with a new target price of HK$4.25, reflecting an attractive risk-reward profile based on a 13x FY25E P/E ratio [11][12]. Core Insights - FIT Hon Teng reported strong Q2 2024 results, with revenue of US$1.102 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20%, and a net profit of US$22.3 million, significantly up from US$0.35 million in Q2 2023 [1][6]. - The company is optimistic about its AI server product line, with new power bus and liquid cooling CDU products passing customer certification, expected to contribute 1-3% to FY24E sales [1][11]. - The network business revenue is projected to grow at a high double-digit rate year-on-year, driven by robust demand in AI applications [1][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24E is estimated at US$4.677 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, and net profit is projected at US$183 million, reflecting a 41.8% increase [9][10]. - Gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to stabilize around 21% for FY24E and FY25E, with operating profit margin (OPM) targeted at 7% for FY24E [8][10]. - The company anticipates a rebound in revenue and net profit for FY24E, with expected growth rates of 12% and 42%, respectively [1][11]. Segment Performance - The automotive segment saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 231%, primarily due to the integration of Voltaira [1][6]. - The network segment experienced a 29% increase in demand, attributed to the growth in AI applications [1][6]. - The smartphone segment's performance was better than expected, aided by improved shipping strategies with major clients [1][6]. Earnings Revisions - FY25E earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been revised upwards by 13-23%, reflecting stronger performance expectations [2][9]. - The report highlights a significant increase in EPS for FY24E to 2.58 cents and for FY25E to 4.20 cents, indicating a positive outlook for profitability [9][10].
腾讯音乐:在线 2Q24 业绩 ; 关注 2H24E 音乐潜艇和 ARPPU 的平衡增长
招银国际· 2024-08-14 03:23
14 Aug 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 TME (TME US) 内联第二季度业绩 ; 关注平衡增长 2H24E 中的音乐潜艇和 ARPPU US$16.00 TME 于 8 月 13 日宣布第二季度业绩 : 总收入同比下降 2% 至 21.9% 71.6 亿元人民币 , 符合我们 / 彭博社普遍估计的 71.6 / 71.3 亿元人民币 ; 非国际财务报告准则净收入同比增长 22% , 达到 18.7 亿元人民币 , 领先 2 / 2% 我们的 / 共识估计。对于 2H24E , 管理层将更多地关注平衡 音乐潜艇和 ARPPU 的增长 , 预计音乐用户网络会增加 但季度环比 ARPPU 持续增长 , 这引发了一些投资者的担忧。 也就是说 , 管理层重申了其长期目标 ( 1.5 亿音乐用户 & 每月 ARPPU 15 元人民币 ) 。我们对 TME 收益复合年增长率保持乐观 FY24 - 26E ( + 21% ) 受核心音乐收入增长和 GPM 扩张的推动。 我们维持 FY24 - 26 非国际财务报告准则净收入预测基本不变 , 并且 将我们的 DCF 衍生 TP 维持在 1 ...
腾讯音乐:Inline 2Q24 results; focus on balanced growth of music subs and ARPPU in 2H24E
招银国际· 2024-08-14 02:40
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company with a target price of US$16.00, indicating a potential upside of 21.9% from the current price of US$13.13 [5][11]. Core Insights - The company reported inline 2Q24 results with total revenue declining by 2% YoY to RMB7.16 billion, while non-IFRS net income increased by 22% YoY to RMB1.87 billion, exceeding estimates [3][4]. - Management aims for balanced growth in music subscribers and ARPPU in 2H24E, with expectations of slower subscriber growth but continued ARPPU growth [3][4]. - The long-term target remains at 150 million music subscribers and RMB15 in monthly ARPPU, with a projected earnings CAGR of 21% over FY24-26E [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - Online music revenue grew by 28% YoY to RMB5.42 billion in 2Q24, accounting for 76% of total revenue, with subscription and non-subscription revenues increasing by 29% and 24% YoY, respectively [3][4]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) expanded by 7.7 percentage points YoY to 42.0% in 2Q24, driven by margin improvements in the online music business and enhanced monetization strategies [3][4][10]. - For FY24E, non-IFRS net income is estimated to grow by 27% YoY to RMB7.50 billion, supported by GPM expansion and operational expense control [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts total revenue growth of 8% YoY to RMB7.06 billion in 3Q24E, primarily driven by a 24% YoY increase in online music revenue, despite a decline in social entertainment revenue [3][4]. - GPM is expected to further expand to 42.8% in 3Q24E, with continued focus on high-value programs and AI technology to enhance user experience [3][4][10]. - The company’s valuation remains fair at 21x FY24E PE, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory [3][4].
贝克微:中国领先的模拟图案晶圆供应商有望实现长期增长
招银国际· 2024-08-14 02:40
2024 年 8 月 14 日 财务资料 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 首次覆盖 贝克微 (2149 HK) 中国领先的模拟图案晶圆供应商有望实现长期增长 贝克微是中国领先的模拟 IC 图案晶圆供应商。公司专注于工业级模拟 IC 市场,并 开发出中国唯一的全栈式设计平台,打通模拟 IC EDA+IP+设计全流程。我们看好 贝克微,原因是:1)三大差异化优势使公司在市场中具备独特地位;2)公司收 入增长强劲(招银国际预测 2023 至 2026 年复合增长率为 38.0%)且利润率稳定 (2024/25 年的毛利率和净利率有望维持在 54%和 23%水平);3)估值具备吸引 力(公司 2024/25 年市盈率为 10.3 倍/7.2 倍,而赴港上市同业 2024 年平均市盈率 为 30.8 倍)。首次覆盖贝克微并给予"买入"评级,目标价为 49.80 港元。 贝克微是中国领先的模拟 IC 图案晶圆产品供应商。根据弗若斯特沙利文的数 据,2022 年公司在模拟 IC 图案晶圆市场按收入划分排名第一,市场份额为 1.7%。但若包括成品 IC 收入,贝克微在 2023 年的收入规模仅达到行业龙头 德州仪器(TX ...
FIT HON TENG:2Q24 in-line; Upbeat guidance on power busbar and liquid cooling order wins
招银国际· 2024-08-14 02:40
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for FIT Hon Teng with a new target price of HK$ 4.25, indicating an upside potential of 88.1% from the current price of HK$ 2.26 [4][12]. Core Insights - FIT Hon Teng reported strong 2Q24 results, with revenue of US$ 1,102 million, reflecting a 20% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of US$ 22.3 million, a significant improvement from US$ 0.35 million in 2Q23 [2][6]. - The company has raised its FY24E guidance for networking business revenue to high double-digit year-over-year growth, up from a previous estimate of 5-15% [2][12]. - The earnings growth is driven by the networking business and the EV segment, which saw a remarkable 231% year-over-year increase due to the Voltaira merger [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at US$ 4,677 million, with expected growth of 11.5% year-over-year, and net profit is projected to reach US$ 183.5 million, reflecting a 41.6% increase [3][10]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to improve to 20.6% in FY24E, with operating profit margin (OPM) targeted at 7.0% [8][10]. - The company anticipates a rebound in revenue and net profit for FY24E, with expectations of 12% and 42% year-over-year growth, respectively [2][12]. Segment Performance - The EV segment's revenue surged by 231% year-over-year, while the networking segment grew by 29% year-over-year, driven by strong AI demand [2][6]. - The smartphone segment also performed better than expected, benefiting from key customer shipment improvements [2][6]. Earnings Revision - The report indicates that FY25-26E EPS estimates are 13-23% above consensus, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [2][10]. - Adjustments to FY24-26E EPS have been made to account for higher gross profit margins, offset by increased operating expenses for new products [2][10]. Valuation - The stock is currently trading at 11.2x FY24E P/E and 6.9x FY25E P/E, which is considered attractive given the projected 42% and 63% year-over-year EPS growth for FY24 and FY25, respectively [2][12].
招银国际:招财日报:每日投资策略-20240813
招银国际· 2024-08-13 03:56
2024 年 8 月 13 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 ` 公司点评 公司点评 贝壳(BEKE US,买入,目标价:21.5 美元)- 在不确定环境中稳固市场份 额增长 贝壳公布 2Q24 业绩:收入同比增长 20%,达到 234 亿元人民币,较招银预 期和彭博一致预期均高 9%,这得益于新房交易和二手房交易的 GTV 超出预 期,以及在行业强劲的去库存需求下新房交易的费率扩张超出预期。季度 non-GAAP 净利润为 27 亿元人民币,较招银预期及市场一致预期均高 48%, 得益于收入超出预期和运营费用支出相较预期更为优化。我们对贝壳在其核 心业务的市场份额扩张持积极态度,这得益于其完备的基础设施和灵活的业 务运营能力,并看好贝壳新业务的发展前景。我们基于 SOTP 的目标价微调 至 21.5 美元(前值:22.0 美元),包括贝壳核心业务的 20.6 美元和圣都的 0.9 美元,对应 20.8x 2024E non-GAAP PE。维持"买入"评级。(链接) 361 度 (1361 HK ,买入,目标价:5.15 港元) - 行业压力仍在,但估值足 够合理 24 年上半 ...
华虹半导体:市场需求逐步回暖,产能利用率接近满载
招银国际· 2024-08-13 02:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 32.7% from the current price of HKD 18.08 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company has shown a gradual recovery in market demand, with capacity utilization nearing full capacity. The second quarter revenue was USD 479 million, a year-on-year decline of 24.2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.0% [2]. - The gross margin for the second quarter improved to 10.5%, significantly higher than the previous quarter's 6.4% and above market expectations [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the trend of self-sufficiency in China's semiconductor industry, with a forecasted revenue guidance for the third quarter of USD 510 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.3% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.6% [2]. Financial Summary - The company's financial performance shows a projected revenue of USD 1.983 billion for FY24, a decrease of 13.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 11.4% [5][6]. - Net profit is expected to drop to USD 134.7 million in FY24, a decline of 51.9% year-on-year, but is projected to recover in FY25 with an increase to USD 244 million [5][6]. - The company’s cash flow analysis indicates a net operating cash flow of USD 692 million for FY25, reflecting a positive trend in cash generation [10]. Market Position - The company’s market share in the consumer electronics segment has shown signs of recovery, contributing 62% to total revenue in the latest quarter [2]. - The management anticipates maintaining high capacity utilization rates, with projections of 84% in Q4 2023 and 98% in Q1 and Q2 2024 [2]. - The company’s stock performance has been volatile, with a 52-week high of HKD 24.60 and a low of HKD 13.86, indicating significant market fluctuations [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report values the company at 0.8 times the projected 2024 price-to-book ratio, which is above the historical average forward P/E ratio by 10% [2]. - The expected earnings per share for FY24 is USD 0.08, with a projected P/E ratio of 29.5 [5][6]. Conclusion - The report concludes that despite challenges in average selling prices, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the recovery in the semiconductor market and maintain a balanced approach between average selling prices and capacity utilization to maximize revenue [2].
361度:The cautious outlook is likely priced in
招银国际· 2024-08-13 02:35
13 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update 361 Degrees (1361 HK) The cautious outlook is likely priced in We are certainly cautious about the sportswear sector. However, brands like Anta, Xtep and 361 Degrees have outperformed in 1H24 and we think this should sustain into 2H24E. For 361, supported by stepped-up efforts in 2H24E and its fairly undemanding valuation at 6x FY24E P/E and 7% FY24E yield, we maintain BUY. FY24E guidance maintained but we are more cautious on m ...