Macroeconomic Strategy - Recent policy stimulus has led to a rebound in government bond net financing and sales of housing and durable goods, with credit growth starting to recover from a low point[1] - Social financing stock, household medium-to-long term loans, and M2 growth have all shown improvement, but corporate credit demand remains weak[1] - Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with a potential 50 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio in the first half of the year[1] - By the end of 2025, social financing scale and RMB loan balance growth may slightly increase to 8% and 8.1%, respectively[1] Industry Commentary - Global smartphone shipments in Q4 2024 grew by 2.4% year-on-year to 332 million units, driven by promotional activities and new model releases in China[2] - Xiaomi and Vivo outperformed competitors with shipment growth of 4.8% and 12.7%, while Apple and Samsung saw declines of 4.1% and 2.7%[2] - Global smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 3% in 2025, benefiting from the iPhone 17 cycle and AI integration[2] Company Analysis - BeiGene expects to achieve GAAP operating profit breakeven by 2025, with non-GAAP operating profit reaching $66 million in Q3 2024[4] - The company reported $188 million in operating cash flow for Q3 2024, marking its first positive quarterly cash flow[4] - BeiGene is advancing 13 new molecules into clinical trials in 2024, with promising early data expected for BGB-43395 in H1 2025[5] Product Pipeline and Market Position - Zebrutinib's global sales reached $690 million in Q3 2024, capturing approximately 25% of the market share[6] - Zebrutinib is the leading BTK inhibitor for new patients in the U.S. for first-line and relapsed/refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)[6] - The company plans to initiate a head-to-head trial for BGB-16673 in late 2025, demonstrating confidence in its pipeline[7] Growth Projections - Giant Bio has raised its 2024 revenue growth guidance to over 50%, with net profit expected to grow around 40%[9] - The GMV for its brands on major online platforms is projected to reach 5.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 57% year-on-year increase[10] - The company anticipates strong growth in its collagen injection products, with approvals expected in Q1 2025[11]

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI increased from 52.1 in November to 54.1 in December, indicating economic expansion with an annualized GDP growth rate of 1.7%[2] - The Manufacturing PMI rose from 48.4 in November to 49.3 in December, suggesting a slight improvement in manufacturing conditions, corresponding to a GDP growth rate of approximately 1.9%[3] Employment Trends - Job vacancies unexpectedly increased by 259,000 to 8.1 million in November, exceeding market expectations of 7.74 million[3] - The hiring rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.3%, while the voluntary resignation rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 1.9%, indicating a balanced labor market[3] Inflation and Market Reactions - The price index in the services sector surged from 58.2 to 64.4, the highest since January 2024, raising concerns about inflation risks[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.68%, the highest in nearly a year, as investors anticipated a delay in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The target federal funds rate is expected to decrease by 50 basis points from a range of 4.25%-4.5% at the end of 2024 to 3.75%-4.0% by the end of 2025[1] - The Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts in January, with potential cuts of 25 basis points in March or May, and another 25 basis points in September[1] Market Valuation Concerns - The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio is near the 80th percentile of the past 20 years, indicating high market valuations and increased volatility risks[5] - The yield on BBB-rated corporate bonds at 5.6% is significantly higher than the earnings yield of 3.7% for stocks, suggesting that equities may carry greater risk compared to high-yield bonds[5]

Macro Strategy - The US services PMI accelerated expansion in December, driven by businesses preparing for tariffs, leading to a significant increase in commercial activity[1] - The price index rebounded to a new high since January 2024, potentially due to temporary year-end price fluctuations[2] - The manufacturing PMI continues to contract but shows signs of improvement, with production and demand both improving[1] Inflation Concerns - The surge in the services PMI price index has raised market concerns about inflation rebounding, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve's rate cut space is narrowing[2] - The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.68%, the highest in nearly a year, putting pressure on US stocks and gold prices[2] - Inflation is expected to decline moderately in the first half of the year due to high year-on-year bases and falling used car and energy prices[2] Industry Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has fallen by 4.7% since the beginning of 2025, underperforming the MSCI China Index by 0.9%[3] - The Chinese government is promoting high-quality development in the pharmaceutical industry, which is expected to benefit innovative drugs and medical devices[4] - The medical device bidding market saw a year-on-year growth of 37% in December, indicating a significant recovery in the sector[5]

宏观策略 策略观点 - 政策观望期 宏观：近期政策刺激提振中国经济，住房销量和耐用消费显著改善。在特朗普关税冲击到来之前，中国政策可 能进入观望防守状态。下半年随着政策刺激效应递减和贸易冲突到来，中国政策可能开启新一轮宽松刺激。美 国经济将延续温和放缓，通胀短期下降，但中期面临特朗普政策效应的扰动。美联储进入对特朗普政策效应的 观察评估期，对降息更加谨慎。随着通胀短期回落，美元实际利率进一步上升，高利率、强美元和高估值可能 推升市场波动性，美联储可能在3月或5月降息1次。在通胀降至更低后，特朗普可能在三季度开启新一轮贸易 战，市场震荡可能促使美联储9月再降息1次。 科技：展望2025年，考虑到全球经济温和复苏、手机/PC需求持续回暖、通用/AI服务器增长延续和端侧AI创新 周期，我们预计科技板块维持高景气度，建议布局两条主线：1）AI终端：各大厂商将于1月CES展会密集发布 AI新品，加上近期苹果Apple Intelligence加快升级，国内手机/平板/智能手表补贴政策，端侧AI创新落地提 速，有望驱动新一轮升级需求（手机/PC/穿戴/眼镜/智能家居/EV）；2）服务器：受益AI算力需求扩张， GB200 ...

2025 年 1 月 8 日 招银国际环球市场 | 策略报告 | 市场策略 策略观点 政策观望期 叶丙南, Ph.D 刘泽晖 伍力恒 刘梦楠 杨天薇, Ph.D 张元圣 贺赛一, CFA 陶冶, CFA 陆文韬, CFA 武煜, CFA 王银朋 黄本晨, CFA 王云逸 张苗 李昀嘉 胡永匡 史迹, CFA 窦文静, CFA 梁晓钧 马毓泽 冯键嵘, CFA 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http:// www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多招银国际环球市场研究报告 1 MN 宏观：近期政策刺激提振中国经济，住房销量和耐用消费显著改善。在特朗 普关税冲击到来之前，中国政策可能进入观望防守状态。下半年随着政策刺 激效应递减和贸易冲突到来，中国政策可能开启新一轮宽松刺激。美国经济 将延续温和放缓，通胀短期下降，但中期面临特朗普政策效应的扰动。美联 储进入对特朗普政策效应的观察评估期，对降息更加谨慎。随着通胀短期回 落，美元实际利率进一步上升，高利率、强美元和高估值可能推升市场波动 性，美联储可能在 3 月或 5 月降息 1 次。在通胀降至更低后，特朗普可能在 三季度开 ...

2025 年 1 月 7 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 软件 & IT 服务 海外公司梳理：拆解盈利增长前景及估值提升空间 2024 年美股头部科技平台整体表现良好，全年收益率平均值/中位数在 60%/44%，主要得益于：1）宏观经济维持韧性，美联储开启降息提升市场流 动性；2）AI 成为第二增长曲线，拉动 AI 芯片/AI 云/广告业务增速，行业龙头 依托于领先的产品能力/基建/客户基础/应用场景率先受益。展望 2025 年，我们 认为 AI 仍然是投资主线，但受益路径有望从 AI 芯片以及 AI 公有云进一步传导 到更多应用场景，包括 B 端和 C 端的应用软件，企业 SaaS 和数据云平台营收 有望相较 2024 年加速。头部科技平台中我们看好 Amazon（云需求持续增长及 零售业务运营效率持续优化驱动盈利稳步增长）、Alphabet（AI 搜索改善用户 体验并提升商业化水平，AI 云业务维持较快增长且利润率改善）、Meta（广告 业务持续受益于 AI 维持快速增长，依托于庞大用户基础较好实现 C 端 AI 应用 落地及变现）、Microsoft（AI 主题下重要的应用端核心投资标 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB52.00, indicating a potential upside of 40.0% from the current price of RMB37.15 [4][19]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation by selling its nine wholly-owned ODM subsidiaries to Luxshare Limited, which is expected to improve its valuation and focus on its high-margin semiconductor business, Nexperia [19]. - The ODM segment has been a financial burden, contributing approximately 79% of total revenue but incurring a significant net loss of RMB1.2 billion in 9M24 [19]. - The semiconductor segment has shown strong performance, generating RMB10.9 billion in sales with a gross profit margin of 37%, significantly outperforming the overall company margins [19]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB61.2 billion in FY23 to RMB80.2 billion in FY25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.1% in FY24 and 10.9% in FY25 [8][13]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB911.4 million in FY24 to RMB2.6 billion in FY25, with a significant growth rate of 186.4% [8][19]. - The company's P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 50.7x in FY24 to 17.7x in FY25, indicating an attractive valuation compared to domestic peers [8][19]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 10.4% in FY24 to 13.2% in FY25, while the operating profit margin is projected to rise from 2.3% to 5.2% in the same period [8][27]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to increase from 6.6% in FY24 to 8.9% in FY25, reflecting improved profitability [3][19]. Market Position - The company currently holds a market capitalization of RMB46.17 billion, with significant shareholding from major investors such as Wentianxia Tech Group and Wuxi Guolian Inte Cir Inv [9][19]. - The stock has shown a 33.0% increase over the past six months, indicating positive market sentiment [9].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Innovent Biologics with a target price raised from HK$55.21 to HK$57.67, reflecting a potential upside of 62.4% from the current price of HK$35.50 [1][9]. Core Insights - Innovent Biologics has out-licensed global rights of DLL3 ADC (IBI3009) to Roche, receiving an upfront payment of US$80 million and potential milestone payments up to US$1.0 billion, along with tiered royalties on net sales [1]. - The DLL3 ADC is a promising therapy for pre-treated extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC), with DLL3 being a neuroendocrine-specific antigen expressed in 85% of SCLC cases [1]. - Innovent has a rich pipeline of innovative drug candidates, including IBI115 (DLL3/CD3 bispecific antibody) and IBI363 (PD-1/IL-2), which have shown encouraging clinical results [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 6,206 million in FY23A to RMB 10,840 million in FY25E, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.4% and 31.9% respectively [8][19]. - Net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 1,028 million in FY23A to a profit of RMB 281 million in FY25E [19]. - R&D expenses are forecasted to increase from RMB 2,228 million in FY23A to RMB 3,035 million in FY25E, indicating continued investment in innovative drug development [19]. Drug Development and Pipeline - DLL3 ADC represents a significant advancement in the treatment of SCLC, with various strategies targeting DLL3 being explored, including ADCs and bispecific antibodies [1]. - Innovent's next-gen immuno-oncology asset, IBI363, has shown promising results in multiple cancer types, indicating strong potential for future out-licensing opportunities [1]. - The company has multiple ADC assets in clinical stages targeting various antigens, enhancing its global market potential [1].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Hesai Group (HSAI US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $16.3 per ADS, based on a 4.8x 2025 expected price-to-sales ratio [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Hesai Group is a global leader in 3D LiDAR solutions, with a strong competitive advantage in the industry [5] - The company is expected to reach a profitability turning point in 2024, driven by increased shipments of existing LiDAR products, the launch of a cost-effective new AT series in 2025, and improved operational efficiency [2] - Hesai Group is projected to achieve Non-GAAP net profits of RMB 9 million in 2024 and RMB 141 million in 2025 [2] - The company has established mass production partnerships with 20 domestic and international automakers for 75 vehicle models as of 3Q24 [5] - Hesai Group holds a 37% market share in the global LiDAR market in 2023, ranking first, with leading positions in both passenger car/light commercial vehicle (26%) and autonomous taxi (74%) segments [12] Market and Industry Analysis - The global automotive LiDAR market is expected to reach $3.63 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 38% from 2023 to 2029 [12] - The passenger car (PC) and light commercial vehicle (LCV)/autonomous taxi LiDAR markets are projected to reach $2.99 billion and $638 million, respectively, by 2029, with CAGRs of 39% and 31% from 2023 to 2029 [12] - Hesai Group is well-positioned to benefit from the strong growth in the LiDAR market, given its leading position in both global and Chinese LiDAR solution markets [12] Competitive Advantages - Hesai Group's competitive advantages include its leading technological capabilities, such as the self-developed ASIC chip, which enables continuous cost optimization [5] - The company's in-house manufacturing and highly automated production methods provide it with leading mass production capabilities [5] - Strong customer relationships drive continuous market penetration [5] Valuation and Target Price - The target valuation of RMB 15.9 billion (equivalent to $16.3 per ADS) is based on a 4.8x 2025 expected price-to-sales ratio, which is 10% higher than the industry average of 4.4x [3] - This valuation is supported by Hesai Group's industry-leading financial performance and a strong product delivery plan in 2025, driven by incremental contributions from leading automakers [3]

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Hansoh Pharma with a target price raised to HK$25.24 from HK$24.11, indicating a potential upside of 37.6% from the current price of HK$18.34 [3][20]. Core Insights - Hansoh Pharma has successfully out-licensed its oral GLP-1 drug candidate HS-10535 to MSD, receiving an upfront payment of US$112 million and potential milestone payments up to US$1.9 billion, along with future sales royalties [1]. - The company has a robust pipeline of GLP-1 assets, including Fulaimei, HS-20094, and HS-10501, with ongoing clinical trials that position it competitively in the global oral GLP-1 drug development race [1][18]. - The safety profile of oral GLP-1 drugs is a critical differentiating factor, with various candidates showing promising weight loss data and varying safety concerns [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 10,104 million in FY23A to RMB 12,301 million in FY24E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.7% [2][23]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 3,277.5 million in FY23A to RMB 4,382.9 million in FY24E, marking a growth of 33.7% [2][23]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.55 in FY23A to RMB 0.74 in FY24E, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 31.1x to 23.3x [2][23]. Pipeline Development - Hansoh's HS-20094, a GLP-1/GIP dual agonist, has initiated a Phase 3 obesity study in China, with Phase 2 trial results expected next year [1]. - The company is also advancing HS-10501 through Phase 1 trials, further expanding its GLP-1 drug portfolio [1]. - The collaboration with MSD is anticipated to accelerate the development of HS-10535 and unlock its global potential [1].