Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 30.1% year-on-year to 3.02 billion RMB and an adjusted net profit growth of 31.4% to 400 million RMB, exceeding profit expectations by 3.1% [1][2]. - The company is expanding its offline store network, adding 21 new stores in 2024, significantly up from 9 in 2023, and now operates 78 stores across 20 cities in China and Singapore [1][7]. - The management expects a revenue growth of 25% year-on-year in 2025, with adjusted profit growth of no less than 20% [1][7]. Financial Performance - For FY23A, the company achieved a sales revenue of 2,323 million RMB, with a projected increase to 3,022 million RMB in FY24A [2]. - The adjusted net profit for FY23A was 305 million RMB, expected to rise to 400 million RMB in FY24A [2]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for FY24A is projected at 1.64 RMB, with a market average estimate of 1.93 RMB for FY25E [2]. Valuation - The target price is set at 52.38 HKD, representing a potential upside of 57.5% from the current price of 33.25 HKD [3][7]. - The report adjusts the DCF-based target price, reflecting a WACC of 10.2% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [10][7]. Growth Strategy - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance service efficiency and patient care, with plans to launch AI-powered services to improve the productivity of scarce medical resources [7][8]. - The management aims to increase overseas revenue to 150-200 million RMB by 2025, focusing on expanding in first-tier cities in China and entering new markets [7][8]. Shareholder Returns - The company returned 420 million RMB to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and buybacks, amounting to 137% of its net profit for the year [7][8]. - The management anticipates maintaining a dividend payout ratio of over 30% in the future [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Akeso, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [15]. Core Insights - Akeso's FY24 results showed strong cost controls despite a revenue shortfall, with total revenue of RMB2.1 billion, including RMB2.0 billion from product sales, representing a 25% YoY increase [8]. - The company is expected to see product sales surge by 60% YoY to RMB3.3 billion in FY25, driven by the inclusion of AK104 and AK112 in the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) [8]. - AK112 is positioned as a next-generation immuno-oncology (IO) therapy, with pivotal clinical data demonstrating a meaningful progression-free survival (PFS) benefit in a Phase 3 trial against Keytruda for first-line PD-L1-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) [8]. - The report highlights ongoing clinical trials for AK112 in various cancer types, including triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and pancreatic cancer, indicating a broad first-line strategy [8]. - The target price for Akeso has been raised from HK$58.97 to HK$102.61, reflecting increased sales projections for AK112 [8]. Financial Summary - For FY23A, Akeso reported revenue of RMB4,526 million, with a YoY growth of 440.3%, followed by a projected revenue of RMB2,124 million for FY24A, reflecting a decline of 53.1% [2]. - The net profit for FY23A was RMB2,028.3 million, with a projected net loss of RMB501 million for FY24A [2]. - R&D expenses are projected to be RMB1,306 million for FY25E, increasing to RMB1,937 million by FY27E [2]. - The company held a cash balance of RMB7.3 billion at the end of FY24, sufficient to support ongoing R&D and future commercial expansion [8]. Share Performance - Akeso's current market capitalization is HK$77,191.5 million, with a current price of HK$86.00 and a target price indicating a 19.3% upside [3]. - The stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month absolute return of 17.9% and a 3-month return of 41.7% [5]. Valuation - The DCF valuation estimates the equity value at RMB 85,652 million, translating to a DCF per share of RMB 95.43 or HK$ 102.61 [9]. - The report includes a sensitivity analysis indicating how changes in the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and terminal growth rate affect the target price [10].

2025 年 4 月 2 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 固生堂 (2273 HK) AI 赋能中医服务龙头 资料来源：公司资料、彭博及招银国际环球市场预测 | 目标价 | 52.38 港元 | | --- | --- | | (此前目标价 | 56.50 港元) | | 潜在升幅 | 57.5% | | 当前股价 | 33.25 港元 | 中国医药 武 煜, CFA (852) 3900 0842 jillwu@cmbi.com.hk 黄本晨, CFA huangbenchen@cmbi.com.hk 公司数据 固生堂发布 24 年度业绩，收入同比增长 30.1%至 30.2 亿元，经调整净利润同比 增长 31.4%至 4.0 亿元。公司的收入符合我们的预期，但利润端比我们的预测高 3.1%。公司业绩在医保监管趋严的情况下保持了高速的增长，体现出固生堂作为 龙头企业的合规性以及强劲发展势头。受益于强劲增长的客户需求，公司线下收 入同比增长 35%，其中老店收入同比增长 28%，门诊人次同比增长 25.9%，客单 价同比增长 3.3%。公司持续推进医联体合作，全年新增 8 家医联体合作单位。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for Maxscend, with a target price adjusted downward to RMB82.00 from RMB86.00, reflecting a potential upside of 2.3% from the current price of RMB80.15 [1][3]. Core Insights - Maxscend's FY24 revenue increased by 2.5% YoY to RMB4.5 billion, which was below CMBI estimates and Bloomberg consensus by 2% and 1% respectively. However, net profit saw a significant decline of 64.2% YoY to RMB402 million, missing estimates by 28% and 21% [1][2]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) and net profit margin (NPM) decreased by 7.0 percentage points and 16.7 percentage points respectively, attributed to margin pressure from the subsidiary Xinzhuo's ramp-up as the company shifts from a fabless model to a fab-lite strategy [1][2]. - Despite the near-term margin pressures, the long-term growth prospects for Maxscend remain positive as it develops platform-level manufacturing capabilities and strategic supply chain independence [1]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 revenue was RMB4,487 million, with a YoY growth of 2.5%, while FY25 revenue is estimated to grow by 16.3% to RMB5,219 million [2][8]. - The gross margin for FY24 was reported at 39.5%, down from 46.4% in FY23, with expectations of a slight recovery to 40.2% in FY25 [2][8]. - Net profit for FY24 was RMB401.9 million, with a forecasted recovery to RMB587.3 million in FY25, reflecting a growth of 46.1% [2][8]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Module sales, which account for 42% of total revenue, grew by 18.6% YoY in FY24, while discrete sales declined by 7.6% YoY. The module business is expected to be a key growth driver, projected to grow by 25% YoY in FY25 [7][8]. - The report indicates that Maxscend will continue to face margin headwinds, particularly in the first half of FY25, but anticipates a gradual recovery in the second half due to seasonality and emerging demand from AI edge devices [7][8]. - The target price of RMB82.00 is based on a rolled-over 45x 2026E P/E, which is 10% higher than the average of peers at 40.7x, considering Maxscend's leading position in the RFFE market and its role in semiconductor localization [1][8].

2025 年 4 月 1 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观经济及公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观经济 中国经济 - PMI 显示复苏势头持续 3 月制造业 PMI 继续保持复苏势头，新订单和生产均强劲增长。但通缩压力 依然存在，原材料采购和出厂价格指数进一步收缩。原材料和制成品库存下 降，显示企业不愿扩大资本支出和库存投资。服务业 PMI 因需求改善而小幅 上升，而建筑业 PMI 进一步扩张。 受益于房地产市场改善、耐用品销售强劲以及贸易顺差扩大，今年第一季度 GDP 增速可能达到 5.2%。但是 4 月和 5 月外部冲击风险将会上升，特朗普 的对等关税和极限施压可能会抑制全球贸易活动、商业投资和市场信心。 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 23,120 | -1.31 | 35.62 | | 恒生国企 | 8,517 | -1.05 | 47.64 | | 恒生科技 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [14]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Life OPAT, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1% to RMB 27.6 billion, surpassing forecasts. Group OPAT rose 2.5% YoY to RMB 34.4 billion, and net profit increased significantly by 64.9% YoY to RMB 45.0 billion, exceeding profit alerts by 55%-70% [1]. - The company achieved a notable 57.7% increase in NBV on a like-for-like basis, despite revising down long-term investment return assumptions by 50 basis points to 4.0% [1][9]. - The report highlights the insurer's effective asset/liability management and strong fundamentals, positioning it favorably against peers [1]. Financial Performance - For FY24, net profit is projected at RMB 46.4 billion, with EPS expected to be RMB 4.67. The consensus EPS for FY25 is RMB 4.29, indicating a slight downward revision from previous estimates [2][9]. - The company's P/B ratio is expected to decline from 0.8 in FY24 to 0.7 in FY25, reflecting a more attractive valuation [2][12]. - The combined ratio for P&C insurance is projected to be 98.6% for FY24, indicating a slight deterioration compared to the previous year [12]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company is set at HK$34.00, representing a 37.1% upside from the current price of HK$24.80 [2][10]. - The stock is trading at 0.54x FY25E P/EV and 1.05x P/B, suggesting it is undervalued relative to its embedded value [10][12]. - The report notes a significant increase in total investment income, which soared 131% YoY to RMB 120.4 billion, driven by higher dividends and fair value gains [8]. Share Performance - The company's market capitalization is approximately HK$238.6 billion, with a 52-week high of HK$33.15 and a low of HK$14.14 [3]. - Over the past month, the stock has appreciated by 7.8%, outperforming the market [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for PICC P&C, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [16]. Core Insights - The full-year combined ratio (CoR) for FY24 was reported at 98.8%, which is a 1.0 percentage point increase year-on-year, primarily due to a rise in the loss ratio [1][8]. - The management provided an optimistic guidance for FY25, expecting the auto and non-auto CoR to be less than 96% and 99% respectively, which is an improvement compared to previous years [1][8]. - The net profit for FY24 is projected to be RMB 32.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, aligning with forecasts [1][2]. - The report revises the EPS forecasts for FY25-27 upwards by 6%, 11%, and 18% to RMB 1.58, 1.74, and 1.93 respectively, driven by improved CoR composition [1][9]. Financial Performance - Total insurance revenue for FY24 is expected to reach RMB 485.2 billion, marking a 6.1% year-on-year increase, with auto and non-auto insurance service revenue rising by 4.5% and 8.8% respectively [8]. - The underwriting profit is anticipated to drop by 44% year-on-year to RMB 5.7 billion, with a significant loss recorded in Q4 [1][8]. - The dividend per share (DPS) for FY24 is set at RMB 0.54, a 10.4% increase year-on-year, indicating a payout ratio of 37.3% [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for PICC P&C has been revised to HK$15.80 from the previous HK$14.00, representing a 9.9% upside from the current price of HK$14.38 [3][10]. - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.09x for FY25E, with an average 3-year forward return on equity (ROE) estimated at 13.5% [10][12]. - The report highlights a dividend yield of 4.7% for FY25, increasing to 5.7% by FY27 [2][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [15]. Core Insights - CSPC's total revenue is projected to decline by 7.8% YoY to RMB29.0 billion in FY24, primarily due to significant drops in oncology and cardiovascular drug sales [7]. - The company anticipates a return to positive organic revenue growth in FY2025, driven by new product launches and business development (BD) initiatives [7]. - CSPC has made substantial progress in out-licensing innovative assets, aiming to secure 3-4 out-licensing deals annually to generate recurring revenue [7]. - The target price for CSPC is revised to HK$5.71 from HK$5.97, reflecting a 15.5% upside from the current price of HK$4.94 [3][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY23 is reported at RMB31,450 million, with a slight YoY growth of 1.7%, while FY24 revenue is expected to drop to RMB29,009 million [2][12]. - Net profit for FY23 is RMB6,072.7 million, showing a decline of 2.6% YoY, with further expected declines in FY24 to RMB4,338.8 million [2][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY23 is reported at RMB0.49, with projections of RMB0.37 for FY24 [2][12]. Business Development and Pipeline - CSPC's business development efforts are expected to create a sustainable revenue stream, with a robust pipeline of 40-50 assets identified for out-licensing potential [7]. - The company is focusing on clinical trials for its EGFR ADC (SYS6010), which is currently in Phase 3 development globally [7]. Market Performance - CSPC's market capitalization is reported at HK$58,871 million, with a 52-week high of HK$7.12 and a low of HK$4.34 [3]. - The stock has shown a 1-month absolute performance of 4.9% and a 3-month performance of 3.3% [5].

Company Analysis - Xinda Biopharmaceuticals (1801 HK) is expected to achieve sustainable profitability ahead of schedule in 2024, with a projected non-IFRS net profit of 332 million RMB and EBITDA of 412 million RMB, driven by strong product revenue growth and one-time licensing fee income [2] - The total revenue for Xinda Biopharmaceuticals is anticipated to reach 9.42 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 52%, with product sales revenue of 8.23 billion RMB, up 44% year-on-year [2] - The sales of the monoclonal antibody, Xindili, grew by 34% to 526 million USD, and the company expects to continue maintaining non-IFRS EBITDA profitability in 2025, even excluding an 8 million USD upfront payment from a licensing deal with Roche [2][5] Financial Performance - Xinda Biopharmaceuticals' non-IFRS gross margin is projected to improve from 82.8% in 2023 to 84.9% in 2024, while the SG&A ratio is expected to decrease from 58.0% to 50.9%, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [5] - By the end of 2024, the company is expected to hold a strong cash balance of 10.2 billion RMB, supporting its long-term development [5] Product Pipeline and Innovation - Xinda Biopharmaceuticals is focusing on developing next-generation immunotherapies and ADCs, with over 10 ADC clinical projects underway, including IBI363, which is anticipated to be a significant product for treating immune-resistant and cold tumors [5][6] - The company plans to update data on IBI363 at the ASCO conference in June, including results from a clinical trial in immune-resistant squamous non-small cell lung cancer [5] Market Overview - The global market has shown mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.65% and the S&P 500 down 1.97% on the same day, reflecting a cautious sentiment among investors [2][4] - The report highlights that the U.S. core PCE inflation exceeded expectations, contributing to increased market risk aversion, while European markets also experienced declines [4] Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xinda Biopharmaceuticals, with a target price raised to 61.71 HKD, reflecting confidence in the company's sustainable profitability and strong innovation pipeline [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for the company with a target price (TP) revised down by 9% to HK$ 25.35, implying a 36.9% upside from the current price of HK$ 18.52 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company experienced mixed performance in FY24, with net sales remaining flat at US$ 3.6 billion, while net profit decreased by 13% YoY to US$ 346 million, primarily due to higher selling expenses and fewer impairment reversals [1][2]. - Major markets such as Asia and North America saw declines of 3.6% and 1.2% YoY, respectively, but growth in Europe and Latin America offset these declines with increases of 3.1% and 17.0% YoY [1]. - The management anticipates a decline in sales for 1Q25, projecting a fall by low single digits to mid single digits, influenced by weak US consumer sentiment despite a recovery in Asia [1][9]. - Organic sales and net profit are expected to grow by 1.5% and 1.8% YoY in FY25E, respectively, supported by ongoing share buybacks and progress in dual-listing [1][9]. Financial Summary - For FY24, the company reported revenue of US$ 3,589 million, a decrease of 2.5% YoY, with a projected revenue of US$ 3,731 million for FY25E, reflecting a growth of 4.0% [2][32]. - The net profit for FY24 was US$ 346 million, down 12.9% YoY, with an expected slight recovery to US$ 351.8 million in FY25E [2][32]. - The report indicates a decline in gross profit margin from 60.0% in FY24 to an expected 59.5% in FY25E, while the operating profit margin is projected to remain at 17.1% [29][32]. Market Performance - The company's stock has seen a decline of 14.1% over the past month and 14.3% over the past three months, indicating a challenging market environment [5]. - The current market capitalization stands at HK$ 26,729.4 million, with an average turnover of HK$ 128.1 million over the last three months [3]. Shareholding Structure - Major shareholders include Schroders PLC with 6.0% and Bank of New York Mellon Corporation with 5.4% [4]. E-commerce Performance - In the first two months of FY25, online sales on major platforms like TBTM and JD.com decreased by 7% and 18% YoY, while sales on Douyin surged by 200% YoY, indicating a shift in consumer preferences and effective marketing strategies [9][15].