丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 22 日 证券分析师 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com 王悦 wangyue03@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 2025 年 3 月社零数据点评 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——3 月社零整体同增 5.9%，家具、家电等品类增速较快 投资要点： 分品类看： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 3月中国社零增速整体回暖。3月社会消费品零售总额为40940亿元，同比增长5.9%， 除汽车外社会消费品零售总额为 36610 亿元，同比增长 6.0%。分区域来看，3 月城 镇/乡村消费品零售总额分别实现 35595/5345 亿元，分别同比+6.0%/+5.3%。 联系人 按消费类型看，商品增速快于餐饮。3 月限额以上单位消费品零售额为 17239 亿元， 同比增长 8.5%。分类型来看，3 月限额以上商品零售/餐饮收入总额分别为 15899/1340 亿 元 ， 同 比 +8.6%/+6 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [6][10]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a leading player in high-performance composite materials in the aviation sector, benefiting from the synergy between military and civilian markets, which is expected to accelerate its performance release [6][10]. - The company has shown steady growth in operating performance, with significant improvements in financial metrics over the past four years [8][32]. - The demand for high-end carbon fiber composites is anticipated to rise rapidly, driven by military aircraft, civil aviation, aerospace engines, and low-altitude economy sectors [9][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a subsidiary of AVIC and is the only entity in China specializing in the research and engineering of composite materials for aviation, holding a strong competitive position in the industry [7][19]. - The company has a clear business structure with five subsidiaries focusing on different aspects of aviation new materials and advanced manufacturing technology [24][25]. 2. Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2024, the company's revenue and net profit have shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.88% and 27.89%, respectively [8][32]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.072 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.12%, and a net profit of 1.153 billion yuan, up 11.73% year-on-year [8][32]. 3. Market Demand - The application of composite materials in military aircraft enhances performance by reducing weight and improving stealth capabilities, with the J-20 fighter jet using 27% composite materials [9][56]. - In the civil aviation sector, the C919 aircraft has a composite material application ratio of approximately 12%, with expectations for increased domestic production and demand [9][18]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.371 billion yuan, 1.606 billion yuan, and 1.837 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 18.93%, 17.18%, and 14.35% [12][29]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 23.71, 20.23, and 17.69, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [12][29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company, Xian Tongli, along with its Singapore subsidiary, is expanding globally with a nearly doubled R&D investment to enhance new product technology innovation [5] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.145 billion yuan (up 4.85% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 793 million yuan (up 29.03% year-on-year) [6] - The company is focusing on three main business segments: wide-body dump trucks, parts sales, and maintenance services, all of which showed stable growth in 2024 [6] - The domestic market is recovering, and the overseas market presents significant opportunities, particularly in open-pit coal mining [6] - The company is increasing its R&D expenses by 89% year-on-year, focusing on large-scale, intelligent, and new energy strategies [6] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 6.507 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.90% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 803 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 1.28% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.76 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.31 [9] - The company anticipates a steady increase in net profit to 1.007 billion yuan by 2027, with an EPS of 2.20 yuan [9]

证券研究报告 电子 行业定期报告 高端国产化浪潮起，消费电子性价比凸显 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——电子行业周报（20250414-20250420） 投资要点： hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 21 日 证券分析师 葛星甫 SAC：S1350524120001 gexingfu@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 风险提示：周期复苏不及预期风险、海外宏观环境持续震荡风险、AI 产品落地不及 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 本周电子板块行情回顾：参考中证行业指数，本周电子指数下跌 1.02%，其中消费 电子指数下跌 1.23%，半导体指数下跌 0.63%，中美关税冲突引发市场对于电子行 业景气度的担忧。我们认为从行业周期角度来看，当前产业链行业库存正常化进程 正在稳定推进，下游逐步改善，因此周期节奏有望稳健向上；同时中美关税冲突或 将再次引发产业链核心环节的国产化浪潮，重视波动中存在的投资机会。 景气度如何：参考全球半导体芯片销售额同比增速，经历了 2021 年下半年至 2023 年上半年产业链长达两年的去库存之后，于 2023 年下半年随着库存的出清及需求的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The report indicates that goodwill impairment will impact the annual performance, but the medium to long-term growth potential remains intact [6] - The company reported a revenue of 2.354 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million yuan, down 40.84% year-on-year [8] - The report highlights that the military explosives business has optimized capacity, but revenue has declined due to lower average prices and reduced blasting volume [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023: 2,541 million yuan - 2024: 2,354 million yuan - 2025E: 2,695 million yuan - 2026E: 3,272 million yuan - 2027E: 3,793 million yuan - Year-on-Year Growth Rates: - 2023: 18.05% - 2024: -7.34% - 2025E: 14.45% - 2026E: 21.44% - 2027E: 15.91% [7] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023: 306 million yuan - 2024: 181 million yuan - 2025E: 311 million yuan - 2026E: 441 million yuan - 2027E: 572 million yuan - Year-on-Year Growth Rates: - 2023: 112.65% - 2024: -40.84% - 2025E: 72.00% - 2026E: 41.75% - 2027E: 29.90% [7] Market Performance - The report notes that the military explosives integrated business generated 1.646 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 5.70% year-on-year, with various segments experiencing declines in revenue [8] - The average price of products such as packaged explosives and electronic detonators decreased by 3.98% and 2.47% respectively [8] - The military new materials business saw a revenue increase of 55.21%, with specific segments like tantalum-niobium oxides growing by 53.32% [8] Profitability Metrics - The integrated military explosives gross margin was 40.24%, an increase of 4.41 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The report indicates that the company expects to complete the production line for energetic materials by the end of September 2025 [8] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast for 2025-2027 as follows: - 2025: 26 - 2026: 18 - 2027: 14 [9]

证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 李强 SAC：S1350524040001 liqiang01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 重磅大单品 S086 上市在即，重点推荐信立泰 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——医药行业周报（25/4/14-25/4/18） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 联系人 本周医药市场表现分析：4 月 14 日至 4 月 18 日，医药指数下跌 0.36%，相对沪深 300 指数超额收益为-0.94%。本周创新药板块仍是市场关注热点，底部个股如东诚药业、舒 泰神、悦康药业等表现较好，一季报陆续来临，Q1 业绩关注度逐步提升，健帆生物、 天坛生物等 Q1 业绩下滑导致跌幅显著。建议关注：1）创新药出海不受关税影响，继续 重点推荐 A 股信立泰、科伦药业、热景生物、一品红、科兴制药、恒瑞医药；港股三生 制药、科伦博泰、康方生物、中国生物制药；2）国产替代机会，建议关注医疗器械（联 影 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the shipping and shipbuilding industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that global shipping decarbonization plans are being established, which will benefit shipbuilding through economic measures [3] - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set various targets and regulatory measures to gradually promote shipping decarbonization, with emission reduction goals based on 2008 levels [6][7] - The report indicates that traditional heavy fuel oil (HFO) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) may not meet the IMO's mid-term decarbonization requirements by 2035 [10] - Ships using HFO may incur compliance costs of approximately $100 per ton between 2028 and 2030, while LNG-fueled ships may be exempt from such costs [10] - The analysis suggests that using fuels with lower greenhouse gas (GHG) content is more effective in reducing potential compliance costs than improving ship efficiency [14] - The IMO's zero-carbon fund has high reward requirements, and only bio-LNG, blue/green methanol, and green ammonia may meet these standards [16] - The report notes that over 80% of the global fleet's capacity currently relies on traditional heavy fuel oil [16] - For ships built before 2015, the inability to retrofit for green fuels will significantly reduce their future economic viability [19] - The report estimates that approximately 60% of existing capacity (ships built before 2015) will need to be replaced with new ships using green fuels by 2030 [20] - As the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) requirements increase, the proportion of the global fleet rated D-E may further rise [24]

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 联系人 市场表现： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 事件：1）公司公告 2024 年年度业绩，2024 年公司实现营业收入 19.51 亿美元，同比下滑 11%，实现归母净利润 2.48 亿美元，同比下滑 7.3%。2）派息公告：2024 年公司派发每股 股息 11.27 港仙/股，对应分红率 25%，与去年持平（派息金额/归母净利润），当前股息率 5%。 风电利润下滑为业绩下滑主要原因，光伏项目量增利降。2024 年国内煤电/国内风电/国内光 伏/韩国项目分别实现归母净利润 0.16、2.28、0.23、0.75 亿美元，同比分别变动 0.00、-0.32、 -0.05、0.03 亿美元，风 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 短端利差压缩，长端利差走扩 ——信用分析周报（2025/4/14-2025/4/18） 投资要点： liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 3）负面舆情：安阳钢铁集团有限责任公司所发行"24 安阳钢铁 MTN001(可持续挂 钩)"、"24 安阳钢铁 MTN002(科创票据)"、"25 安阳钢铁 PPN001(科创票据)"、 "25 安阳钢铁 PPN002B(科创票据)"隐含评级调低。 本周市场分析：本周公开市场共有 4742 亿元逆回购到期，1000 亿元 MLF 回笼，本 周央行累计开展 8080 亿元逆回购操作，实现全周净投放 2338 亿元。目前，加征关 税的最终结局仍难以预料，但事情正在起变化，美已经豁免智能手机、显示器等电 子产品的"对等关税"，中美关税战可能逐步缓和。我们认为，10 年期国债 1.65% 定价了约 30BP 的降息预期，年内 10Y 国债收益率仍可能回到 1.7%上方。 投资建议：总体来看，本周各行业信用利差整体涨跌互现。城投债方面，本周 3-5Y 城投信用利差仍倒挂长端利差 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The domestic aircraft industry is accelerating its international expansion, and the express delivery sector continues to grow rapidly [4][5] - The shipping market is experiencing fluctuations in freight rates, with VLCC rates rebounding due to OPEC+ production increases [5][6] - The express delivery industry shows strong demand, with a year-on-year growth of 21.6% in the first quarter [8][9] Industry Dynamics Tracking Shipping Vessels - VLCC market rates have rebounded, with the TCE on April 17 reaching $48,551/day, up 33.8% from April 16 [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported a decrease of 1.7% to 1,371 points [5] - The BDTI index increased by 2.34% to 1,141 points, while the BCTI index rose by 2.3% to 686 points [6] - The BDI index decreased by 3.6% to 1,262 points [6] Express Logistics - The express delivery industry handled 451.4 billion items in the first quarter, with a revenue of 345.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.6% and 10.9% respectively [8] - Major express companies showed varied performance in March, with YTO Express and SF Express reporting significant growth in business volume [9][10] Aviation and Airports - Domestic aircraft are gaining traction in international markets, with recent agreements between China and Vietnam, and China and Malaysia to enhance cooperation [11] - Predictions for the May Day holiday indicate a 7.6% increase in passenger volume compared to 2024 [12][13] Key Company Focus Aviation - Companies to watch include China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines due to expected demand recovery and supply constraints [14] Express Delivery - Recommended companies include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and SF Express, which are positioned well for long-term growth despite current price competition [14] Shipping - Companies like COSCO Shipping and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation are highlighted due to the tightening supply of new vessels and increasing demand for oil transportation [14]