证券研究报告 电子 行业定期报告 高端国产化浪潮起，消费电子性价比凸显 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——电子行业周报（20250414-20250420） 投资要点： hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 21 日 证券分析师 葛星甫 SAC：S1350524120001 gexingfu@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 风险提示：周期复苏不及预期风险、海外宏观环境持续震荡风险、AI 产品落地不及 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 本周电子板块行情回顾：参考中证行业指数，本周电子指数下跌 1.02%，其中消费 电子指数下跌 1.23%，半导体指数下跌 0.63%，中美关税冲突引发市场对于电子行 业景气度的担忧。我们认为从行业周期角度来看，当前产业链行业库存正常化进程 正在稳定推进，下游逐步改善，因此周期节奏有望稳健向上；同时中美关税冲突或 将再次引发产业链核心环节的国产化浪潮，重视波动中存在的投资机会。 景气度如何：参考全球半导体芯片销售额同比增速，经历了 2021 年下半年至 2023 年上半年产业链长达两年的去库存之后，于 2023 年下半年随着库存的出清及需求的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The report indicates that goodwill impairment will impact the annual performance, but the medium to long-term growth potential remains intact [6] - The company reported a revenue of 2.354 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million yuan, down 40.84% year-on-year [8] - The report highlights that the military explosives business has optimized capacity, but revenue has declined due to lower average prices and reduced blasting volume [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023: 2,541 million yuan - 2024: 2,354 million yuan - 2025E: 2,695 million yuan - 2026E: 3,272 million yuan - 2027E: 3,793 million yuan - Year-on-Year Growth Rates: - 2023: 18.05% - 2024: -7.34% - 2025E: 14.45% - 2026E: 21.44% - 2027E: 15.91% [7] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023: 306 million yuan - 2024: 181 million yuan - 2025E: 311 million yuan - 2026E: 441 million yuan - 2027E: 572 million yuan - Year-on-Year Growth Rates: - 2023: 112.65% - 2024: -40.84% - 2025E: 72.00% - 2026E: 41.75% - 2027E: 29.90% [7] Market Performance - The report notes that the military explosives integrated business generated 1.646 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 5.70% year-on-year, with various segments experiencing declines in revenue [8] - The average price of products such as packaged explosives and electronic detonators decreased by 3.98% and 2.47% respectively [8] - The military new materials business saw a revenue increase of 55.21%, with specific segments like tantalum-niobium oxides growing by 53.32% [8] Profitability Metrics - The integrated military explosives gross margin was 40.24%, an increase of 4.41 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The report indicates that the company expects to complete the production line for energetic materials by the end of September 2025 [8] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast for 2025-2027 as follows: - 2025: 26 - 2026: 18 - 2027: 14 [9]

证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 李强 SAC：S1350524040001 liqiang01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 重磅大单品 S086 上市在即，重点推荐信立泰 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——医药行业周报（25/4/14-25/4/18） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 联系人 本周医药市场表现分析：4 月 14 日至 4 月 18 日，医药指数下跌 0.36%，相对沪深 300 指数超额收益为-0.94%。本周创新药板块仍是市场关注热点，底部个股如东诚药业、舒 泰神、悦康药业等表现较好，一季报陆续来临，Q1 业绩关注度逐步提升，健帆生物、 天坛生物等 Q1 业绩下滑导致跌幅显著。建议关注：1）创新药出海不受关税影响，继续 重点推荐 A 股信立泰、科伦药业、热景生物、一品红、科兴制药、恒瑞医药；港股三生 制药、科伦博泰、康方生物、中国生物制药；2）国产替代机会，建议关注医疗器械（联 影 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the shipping and shipbuilding industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that global shipping decarbonization plans are being established, which will benefit shipbuilding through economic measures [3] - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set various targets and regulatory measures to gradually promote shipping decarbonization, with emission reduction goals based on 2008 levels [6][7] - The report indicates that traditional heavy fuel oil (HFO) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) may not meet the IMO's mid-term decarbonization requirements by 2035 [10] - Ships using HFO may incur compliance costs of approximately $100 per ton between 2028 and 2030, while LNG-fueled ships may be exempt from such costs [10] - The analysis suggests that using fuels with lower greenhouse gas (GHG) content is more effective in reducing potential compliance costs than improving ship efficiency [14] - The IMO's zero-carbon fund has high reward requirements, and only bio-LNG, blue/green methanol, and green ammonia may meet these standards [16] - The report notes that over 80% of the global fleet's capacity currently relies on traditional heavy fuel oil [16] - For ships built before 2015, the inability to retrofit for green fuels will significantly reduce their future economic viability [19] - The report estimates that approximately 60% of existing capacity (ships built before 2015) will need to be replaced with new ships using green fuels by 2030 [20] - As the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) requirements increase, the proportion of the global fleet rated D-E may further rise [24]

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 联系人 市场表现： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 事件：1）公司公告 2024 年年度业绩，2024 年公司实现营业收入 19.51 亿美元，同比下滑 11%，实现归母净利润 2.48 亿美元，同比下滑 7.3%。2）派息公告：2024 年公司派发每股 股息 11.27 港仙/股，对应分红率 25%，与去年持平（派息金额/归母净利润），当前股息率 5%。 风电利润下滑为业绩下滑主要原因，光伏项目量增利降。2024 年国内煤电/国内风电/国内光 伏/韩国项目分别实现归母净利润 0.16、2.28、0.23、0.75 亿美元，同比分别变动 0.00、-0.32、 -0.05、0.03 亿美元，风 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 短端利差压缩，长端利差走扩 ——信用分析周报（2025/4/14-2025/4/18） 投资要点： liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 3）负面舆情：安阳钢铁集团有限责任公司所发行"24 安阳钢铁 MTN001(可持续挂 钩)"、"24 安阳钢铁 MTN002(科创票据)"、"25 安阳钢铁 PPN001(科创票据)"、 "25 安阳钢铁 PPN002B(科创票据)"隐含评级调低。 本周市场分析：本周公开市场共有 4742 亿元逆回购到期，1000 亿元 MLF 回笼，本 周央行累计开展 8080 亿元逆回购操作，实现全周净投放 2338 亿元。目前，加征关 税的最终结局仍难以预料，但事情正在起变化，美已经豁免智能手机、显示器等电 子产品的"对等关税"，中美关税战可能逐步缓和。我们认为，10 年期国债 1.65% 定价了约 30BP 的降息预期，年内 10Y 国债收益率仍可能回到 1.7%上方。 投资建议：总体来看，本周各行业信用利差整体涨跌互现。城投债方面，本周 3-5Y 城投信用利差仍倒挂长端利差 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The domestic aircraft industry is accelerating its international expansion, and the express delivery sector continues to grow rapidly [4][5] - The shipping market is experiencing fluctuations in freight rates, with VLCC rates rebounding due to OPEC+ production increases [5][6] - The express delivery industry shows strong demand, with a year-on-year growth of 21.6% in the first quarter [8][9] Industry Dynamics Tracking Shipping Vessels - VLCC market rates have rebounded, with the TCE on April 17 reaching $48,551/day, up 33.8% from April 16 [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported a decrease of 1.7% to 1,371 points [5] - The BDTI index increased by 2.34% to 1,141 points, while the BCTI index rose by 2.3% to 686 points [6] - The BDI index decreased by 3.6% to 1,262 points [6] Express Logistics - The express delivery industry handled 451.4 billion items in the first quarter, with a revenue of 345.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.6% and 10.9% respectively [8] - Major express companies showed varied performance in March, with YTO Express and SF Express reporting significant growth in business volume [9][10] Aviation and Airports - Domestic aircraft are gaining traction in international markets, with recent agreements between China and Vietnam, and China and Malaysia to enhance cooperation [11] - Predictions for the May Day holiday indicate a 7.6% increase in passenger volume compared to 2024 [12][13] Key Company Focus Aviation - Companies to watch include China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines due to expected demand recovery and supply constraints [14] Express Delivery - Recommended companies include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and SF Express, which are positioned well for long-term growth despite current price competition [14] Shipping - Companies like COSCO Shipping and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation are highlighted due to the tightening supply of new vessels and increasing demand for oil transportation [14]

海外 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 证券研究报告 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 于炳麟 SAC：S1350524060002 yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 郑冰倩 SAC：S1350525040002 zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 继续看多黄金，规避美元定价的风险资产 投资评级： 无 ——海外科技周报（25/4/14-25/4/18） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 海外 AI：本周，白宫依据《贸易扩展法》第 232 条款发布的新行动，针对加工关键矿物及其衍生产品采取关税 或数量限制措施，以降低对外国供应链的依赖、增强国家安全和经济韧性。政策明确强化了美国自主掌控能源关 键原材料供应链的战略方向，间接利好铀板块。叠加此前限制俄罗斯铀进口的政策背景，本次行动有望进一步提 振市场对美国本土铀矿开采、铀浓缩与核燃料加工企业（如 Energy Fuels、UEC、Cameco 等）的中长期增长 预期 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 政策助力，Q1 经济数据较好 ——一季度经济数据点评 投资要点： 联系人 一季度 GDP 增速亮眼。一季度，中国 GDP 达到 31.9 万亿元，实际 GDP 同比增长 5.4%。其中，最终消费支出拉动 GDP 增长 2.8 个百分点，贡献超过一半以上的经济 增长，或因在以旧换新政策持续推动下，消费潜力持续释放；资本形成总额拉动 GDP 增长约 0.5 个百分点，或因财政政策靠前发力和大规模设备更新政策效果逐渐显现； 货物和服务净出口拉动 GDP 增长 2.1 个百分点，或因"抢出口"效应持续支撑。 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 一季度消费增速较高。一季度，社会消费品零售总额 12.5 万亿元，同比增长 4.6%， 扣除价格因素实际增长 4.8%；3 月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长 5.9%，增速较 1-2 月份提高 1.9pct。消费品以旧换新加力扩围政策成效明显。3 月份限额以上单位 通 讯 ...

证券研究报告 机械设备 | 工程机械 北交所|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 事 件 ： 25Q1 实 现 营 收 1.67 亿 元 (yoy+18%/qoq-10%) ， 归 母 净 利 润 3382.47 万 元 (yoy+61%/qoq+2%)，扣非归母净利润 3301.50 万元(yoy+70%/qoq+2%)，收入端延续稳定增 长，利润端超预期。从费用端来看，25Q1 销售费用率 1.11%(yoy-0.01pcts/qoq+0.05pcts)， 管理费用率 2.57%(yoy-0.59pcts/qoq-0.71pcts），费用端控制得当。 联系人 液压油缸"小巨人"，工程机械等下游恢复，油气弹簧等新产品不断扩展。公司业务涵盖液 压产品的研发、设计、生产和销售，主要产品包括自卸车专用油缸、机械装备用缸和油气 ...