韩国娱乐：HYBE将出售SM股份给TME；正在关注关于S M-TME合作关系的更多细节。 发生了什么？ 27 May 2025 | 11:07PM KST 2025年5月27日，HYBE公司（链接）披露，已同意将其在SM公司（持有10%股权 ）的全部剩余股份出售给腾讯音乐娱乐（TME），总价值为2430亿元人民币，每 股价值11万元人民币（较上次收盘价折让15%）。披露文件指出，该交易将于202 5年5月30日市场收盘后进行。据SM公司称，该公司计划在本周晚些时候公布其与 TME战略合作关系的更多细节。 Eric Cha | eric.cha@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限公司，首尔 分支 +82(2)3788-1799 Lincoln Kong, CFA +852-2978-6603 | lincoln.kong@g s.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Diane Kang +82(2)3788-1030 | diane.kang@gs.com 高盛(亚洲) 有限责任公司 首尔分行 GS观点 K-pop 关注可能推动进一步增长的合作伙伴关系细节： n 自今年早些时候以来，股价强势上涨，主要受对中国可能重新 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates Telstra Group as a "Buy" with a 12-month price target of A$4.90, indicating an upside potential of 3.6% from the current price of A$4.73 [8][9]. Core Insights - Telstra's "Connected Future 30" strategy aligns with expectations, focusing on mobile, digital infrastructure, and cost discipline, with a target of mid-single digit cash earnings CAGR to FY30 [1][2]. - The company aims for a 10% return on invested capital (ROIC) by FY30, which is above the current rate of approximately 8% [2]. - Telstra plans to sustain and grow fully-franked dividends into FY30, with a preference for buybacks over unfranked dividends [3][5]. - The company has over A$20 billion in financial capacity to fund growth by FY30, which includes A$15-16 billion in cash earnings and approximately A$6 billion in debt capacity [5][6]. Financial Targets - Cash earnings are expected to achieve a mid-single digit CAGR to FY30, with underlying income growth outpacing cash EBIT cost growth [2]. - The guidance for FY25 includes free cash flow expectations of A$3.0-3.4 billion and BAU capex guidance of A$3.2-3.4 billion [6]. - Telstra is positioned to become Australia's leading digital infrastructure provider, targeting sustained cash EBIT growth and mid-teens IRR on strategic investments [3][5]. Valuation and Market Position - The report suggests that while Telstra's headline valuation appears full compared to peers, adjusting for unique assets like NBN recurring payments reveals a more compelling multiple [7]. - The potential monetization of InfraCo Fixed assets could yield a value between A$22-33 billion, enhancing the company's financial position [7]. - The recurring NBN payment stream is estimated to be worth A$14.5 billion to A$17.9 billion, providing long-duration cash flows without strategic loss [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso (MNSO) with a 12-month target price of $23.40 for ADR and HK$46.00 for H-shares, reflecting a potential upside of 27.9% and 33.1% respectively [15][17]. Core Insights - Management reiterated its target for accelerated revenue growth in 2025, aiming for a year-on-year increase of 23% compared to 2024, with a focus on achieving low teens percentage growth in Miniso China sales and approximately 40% growth in overseas business [1][5]. - Despite expected slight declines in gross profit margins this year, management anticipates healthy operating profit growth for the year, with margins expected to narrow sequentially in Q2 and return to positive territory in Q3 [1][5]. - The company plans to close 300-400 underperforming or outdated stores in China, with expectations of stabilizing or slightly decreasing the number of new stores in the second quarter, but anticipates a return to store growth in the latter half of the year [1][11]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Management expects revenue growth to accelerate in 2025, driven by positive sales and store productivity improvements, with a target of opening 500 to 600 new stores, of which 40% to 45% will be DTC stores [5][16]. - For Top Toy, management anticipates a year-on-year revenue growth of approximately 50% to 60% and plans to add 100 new stores [5]. Profit Margins - Operating profit is projected to recover to positive growth in Q3, with a target operating profit of RMB 3.6 billion to RMB 3.8 billion for the year, compared to RMB 3.2 billion last year [5][16]. - Management noted that while the operating profit margin may experience slight declines due to macroeconomic factors and DTC expansion, the pressure on margins is expected to gradually narrow [1][5][7]. Store Network and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its store network, with plans to close underperforming stores while aiming for a net increase in store count in the latter half of the year [1][11]. - In the U.S. market, Miniso will concentrate on 24 states to achieve better economies of scale and reduce operational costs, while also optimizing its product mix to cater to local consumers [6][10]. Product Mix and Market Adaptation - The product mix includes a focus on toys and lifestyle products, with a strategy to increase local sourcing to mitigate potential tariff risks [10][12]. - Management aims to enhance the contribution of third-party products to diversify the product range while maintaining overall gross margin stability [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Fositek with a 12-month price target of NT$836, representing an upside of 45.6% from the current price of NT$574 [10]. Core Insights - Fositek is expected to benefit from rising demand for ASIC AI servers, which is driving the penetration of liquid cooling components. The company's gross margin (GM) is projected to improve from 22% in 1Q25 to 27% by 2027 [1]. - The shift from air cooling to liquid cooling in ASIC AI servers is anticipated to enhance market opportunities, with next-generation rack-level AI servers potentially utilizing three times more quick disconnects (QDs) per tray compared to previous models [4]. - The foldable phone market is also on the rise, with significant shipments expected, including Huawei's foldable phones, which are projected to support Fositek's revenue growth in 2Q25 [7]. Summary by Sections ASIC AI Servers - The demand for ASIC AI servers is increasing, leading to a higher penetration rate of liquid cooling components. Fositek is expanding its product offerings to include rail kits and liquid cooling components, which are expected to positively impact its gross margin [1][4]. - The company's quick disconnect (QD) technology has gained traction among leading US cloud service providers, with mass production expected to start in 4Q25 [4]. Foldable Phones - The report highlights a growing trend in foldable phones, with significant shipments from major brands like Huawei and Lenovo. This trend is expected to contribute positively to Fositek's revenue in the upcoming quarters [5][7]. - The anticipated launch of more high-end foldable phones in 2H25 is expected to further support revenue growth for Fositek [7]. Financial Projections - Fositek's revenue is projected to grow from NT$8.19 billion in 2025 to NT$22.36 billion by 2027, with corresponding EBITDA and EPS growth [10]. - The report outlines a target P/E multiple of 19.2x based on peer comparisons, indicating a favorable valuation relative to its growth prospects [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hesai, with a 12-month price target of US$23.3, implying an upside of approximately 9% from the current price of US$21.45 [3][32]. Core Insights - Hesai's 1Q25 results showed revenue in line with expectations and a net profit that exceeded forecasts, primarily due to a higher gross margin of 41.7% and lower operating expenses [1][3]. - The adoption of LiDAR technology in the Chinese automotive market has accelerated, leading to an increase in projected automotive LiDAR volumes for 2025 and 2026 by 23% and 37%, respectively [2][8]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous mobility, with a significant market share of 37% in 2023 [33]. Financial Performance - In 1Q25, Hesai reported revenue of Rmb525 million, a 46% increase year-over-year, with a gross profit of Rmb219 million, reflecting a 57% increase year-over-year [7]. - The non-GAAP net profit for 1Q25 was Rmb9 billion, a significant improvement compared to previous estimates of a net loss [1][7]. - The company ended 1Q25 with Rmb2.3 billion in net cash, indicating a stable financial position despite longer receivable days [4][6]. Guidance and Future Outlook - For 2Q25, management expects revenue between Rmb680 million and Rmb720 million, representing a 53% year-over-year increase [30]. - Full-year guidance for 2025 remains unchanged, with projected revenue of Rmb3 billion to Rmb3.5 billion and total shipments of 1.2 million to 1.5 million units [30]. - The company anticipates maintaining a gross margin of around 40% and achieving GAAP net profit between Rmb200 million and Rmb350 million for 2025 [30][31]. Market Trends and Competitive Position - The report highlights the rapid adoption of LiDAR in premium and mass-market vehicle models, which is expected to drive further growth in the sector [2][8]. - Hesai has secured design wins with 23 OEMs globally, indicating strong demand for its products in the ADAS segment [30]. - The company is entering a new product cycle with its ATX series, which is expected to enhance revenue growth and profitability [33].

27 May 2025 | 3:31PM JST Calbee Inc (2229.T) Sell Earnings wrap: Lowering GSe to factor in cost increases; maintain Sell 2229.T 12m Price Target: ¥2,950 Price: ¥2,932 Upside: 0.6% Reflecting FY3/25 results and our updated forex assumption (¥145/US$ versus ¥150/US$ previously), we lower our FY3/26-FY3/28 operating profit estimates for Calbee by 4.6%/6.6%/4.6%. We lower our FY3/26 operating profit estimates by ¥1.2 bn for Japan and ¥0.2 bn for overseas. For Japan, we now factor in price hikes from September 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for YJ Semitech is "Sell" with a 12-month price target of Rmb100, indicating a downside potential of 21.9% from the current price of Rmb128.04 [8][10]. Core Insights - YJ Semitech is experiencing strong demand for its Continuous Wave (CW) lasers, particularly from key customers in the silicon photonics transceiver market, and is planning to ramp up shipments significantly in the coming quarters [2][8]. - The company is expanding its production capacity to meet the increasing demand for CW lasers and aims to reach a capacity of low tens of millions of units per year by 2026 [2][8]. - YJ Semitech's CW laser pricing is slightly below that of global peers, and its datacom segment gross margin was reported at 71% in 2024, driven mainly by customized products [4][8]. Summary by Sections CW Laser Ramp Outlook - Management maintains a positive outlook for CW laser shipments, driven by strong demand from key customers [2]. - The company is addressing supply tightness in CW and EML lasers by expanding output capacity through additional equipment and improved yield levels [2]. Competitive Barriers - The competitive landscape is characterized by high switching costs for customers, who evaluate suppliers based on product quality, reliability, delivery capability, and capacity scale [3]. Margins and Pricing Comparison - The gross margin for the datacom segment was 71% in 2024, while CW lasers are expected to have a gross margin below the segment average [4]. - The company is currently priced slightly below its global peers, indicating potential pricing power in the future [4]. 100G EML Outlook - YJ Semitech's 100G EML products have passed customer qualifications but are not yet in mass production due to prioritization of CW laser production [6]. - As capacity expands, the company anticipates more room for EML production, which will aid in ramping up EML products [6].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of Sumitomo Metal Mining from Buy to Sell [1][18]. Core Views - The report indicates a noticeable deterioration in margins for several of Sumitomo Metal Mining's products due to a global slowdown in Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) demand, leading to significant impairment losses in its nickel and cathode materials businesses [1][15]. - The target price has been reduced to ¥3,100 from ¥4,100, reflecting a projected 8% downside compared to the current share price [1][18]. - The report highlights a shift in technological trends in cathode materials, which may hinder Sumitomo Metal Mining's competitive edge in the market [1][15]. Financial Estimates - The FY3/26 pretax profit estimate has been cut by 30% to ¥97 billion, which is below both the company's guidance of ¥100 billion and the Bloomberg consensus of ¥105 billion [2]. - The mineral resources segment is expected to perform better than guidance, with an estimate of ¥103.4 billion, while the smelting and refining segment is projected to incur losses of ¥5.6 billion [2][12]. - The report anticipates a significant decline in total revenue growth, projecting a decrease of 6.6% for FY3/26, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [12][20]. Business Segment Performance - The report notes substantial impairment losses of ¥57.3 billion in the cathode materials business due to a transition from nickel-cobalt-aluminum oxide (NCA) to nickel-manganese-cobalt oxide (NMC) technology [15][16]. - The mineral resources segment is expected to maintain a strong performance, while the materials segment is likely to remain in the red until a successful transition to mass production of NCM is achieved [16][20]. - The report emphasizes that the competitive landscape for NCM is challenging, particularly for Japanese manufacturers like Sumitomo Metal Mining [16][20]. Market Context - The report discusses the broader market context, noting that BEV demand is slowing, particularly in the US and Europe, which may impact the company's future performance [1][32]. - It highlights that the company's share price has underperformed significantly, declining 39% since April 2022, compared to a 47% increase in the TOPIX index [18][19]. - The report also mentions potential upside risks, including increased metal prices and a renewed acceleration in BEV demand, which could positively influence the company's performance [1][29][32].

Investment Rating - The report supports a below-the-forwards Brent/WTI oil price forecast of $60/56 for the remainder of 2025 and $56/52 in 2026, with positive long-term implications for prices [10][11]. Core Insights - Strong supply growth from non-OPEC ex Russia and shale Top Projects is expected to accelerate to 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025-2026, primarily driven by Brazil and Guyana [11][14]. - The average breakeven price for oil has decreased by $3 per barrel to $59 per barrel, while cumulative peak production rose by 6% compared to the 2024 cost curve [6][17]. - A potential near-term surplus in 2025-2026 may lead to an earlier and lower peak for US shale production, indicating long-term shortages [27][29]. - The oil reserve life has decreased by 30% over the last five years, and oil capital expenditures (capex) are expected to decline further [31][29]. - Non-OPEC supply is projected to remain roughly flat in 2029-2030, providing an opportunity for OPEC to regain market share [33]. Summary by Sections Supply Growth - Annual production growth from non-OPEC ex Russia ex shale Top Projects is likely to reach 1 mb/d in 2025-2026, with Brazil and US deepwater projects leading the growth [6][11]. - The top-15 growing non-shale Top Projects are expected to contribute 1.2 mb/d to average supply growth during this period [14][11]. Price Forecast - The report indicates lower oil prices in 2025-2026 due to a near-term surplus, which may impact US shale production negatively [27][21]. - Long-term supply tightness is anticipated post-2028, supporting higher prices due to a lack of new projects and maturing US shale production [26][33]. Capital Expenditures and Breakeven Prices - The average breakeven price for oil projects has decreased, but remains higher than in previous years, particularly in Argentina and Russia [17][18]. - Total oil capex for non-shale Top Projects peaked in 2022 and is declining at an average annual rate of 10% [29][31].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of IMI Plc to Neutral from Buy, with a lowered 12-month target price of 2,120p, down from 2,220p [1][11]. Core Insights - The downgrade reflects revisions in estimates due to a sharp decline in US ISM manufacturing PMIs, updated capex trackers, IMI's 1Q25 trading update, and increased foreign exchange headwinds [1][11]. - The adjusted FY25 earnings per share (EPS) forecast is lowered from 133.1p to 129.8p, moving to the lower end of the group's guidance of 129p-136p [1][11]. - The report anticipates a balanced risk-reward scenario for IMI in the upcoming quarters, with expected growth in Climate Control and Life Science & Fluid Control businesses, despite headwinds in short-cycle businesses [2][11]. Financial Forecasts - FY25 revenue is projected at £2,238.1 million, with a reduction in sales, adjusted EBIT, and adjusted net income forecasts by approximately 5% each [1][8]. - The adjusted EBIT margin forecast remains unchanged at 20.1%, reflecting a shift towards the Automation segment [1][8]. - The report indicates a 9% reduction in FY25 free cash flow forecasts due to lower earnings and an increase in capex by approximately £10 million [1][8]. Segment Analysis - The Automation segment's growth forecast has been lowered, primarily due to a 7% year-over-year decline in Q1 and a significant drop in the US ISM manufacturing PMIs [12]. - The Life Technology segment's forecast reflects a modest recovery in demand, while the Transport business is under strategic review due to anticipated declines [13]. - The Climate Control segment is expected to grow by 4.2%, benefiting from ongoing demand for energy-efficient HVAC products [13].