Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for GDS and VNET, with target prices set at US$42/HK$41 for GDS and US$13 for VNET, indicating upside potentials of 65% and 118% respectively [8][64]. Core Insights - The growth outlook for the China data center sector remains unchanged, with expectations for GDS and VNET to report revenue growth of +16% and +18% year-over-year respectively for 1Q25 [1][61]. - The industry-wide utilization rate is projected to improve from approximately 60% in 2024 to over 70% by 2026, driven by increasing demand from AI and cloud services [20][22]. - Recent developments in domestic chips and AI technologies are expected to sustain wholesale data center demand in the mid-term, while retail demand may recover in the near term [37][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance Expectations - GDS is expected to report 1Q25 revenue of Rmb2.8 billion (+16% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of Rmb1.3 billion (+18% YoY), aligning with consensus data [60]. - VNET is anticipated to report 1Q25 revenue of Rmb2.2 billion (+18% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of Rmb610 million (+13% YoY), slightly below consensus expectations [61]. 2. Demand-Supply Dynamics - The report highlights a dual scenario of supply tightness and oversupply in China's data center market, with utilization rates expected to rise significantly by 2026 [20][36]. - Demand for data center capacity is projected to grow at a CAGR of 21% from 2024 to 2027, reaching 26GW by 2027 [22][25]. 3. Financing Developments - GDS and VNET have made significant progress in financing, enabling them to meet their capital expenditure requirements for 2025, with GDS needing Rmb4.3 billion and VNET Rmb10-12 billion [50][55]. - GDS has completed an ABS issuance, monetizing data center assets and generating Rmb1.2 billion in net cash proceeds [51]. 4. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that AI will account for 24% of the market demand by 2027, up from 11% in 2024, indicating a substantial shift in demand drivers [28]. - The upcoming results from major cloud players like Tencent and Alibaba are expected to provide insights into capital expenditure trends, which are crucial for the data center sector [38][59].

Flash | 08 May 2025 12:20:00 ET │ 12 pages GoerTek (002241.SZ) New ESOP Announced; Restated Same KPI For 2025/26 CITI'S TAKE GoerTek released 2025 ESOP (Draft) on 8th May. We noted that: (1) the 2025/2026 financial performance target is the same with the 2023 ESOP. (2) 2025 revenue target is 41%/35% higher than CitiE/VAe, and NP target is 26%/22% below CitiE/VAe. (3) 2026 revenue target is 59%/46% higher than CitiE/VAe, and NP target is 26%/17% below CitiE/VAe. (4) The exercise price is set to be Rmb22.10, ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp is Overweight, with a price target of Rmb20.00, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price of Rmb16.46 [5]. Core Insights - Joyson has secured an A-DCU project order based on Black Sesame's C1296 AD chip, positioning itself as the exclusive DCU supplier for multiple Dongfeng models launching in 2025 [1]. - The company can provide up to Rmb50,000 worth of components per humanoid robot, including sensors and battery management systems, highlighting its competitive advantage in scaling and mass production [2]. - Joyson's global presence, with over 50 plants, mitigates tariff impacts and allows it to secure projects from Chinese OEMs looking to localize production in regions like ASEAN, LaTAM, and Europe [3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 2024, Joyson's projected revenue is Rmb55.864 billion, with an expected EBITDA of Rmb4.620 billion and a net income of Rmb960 million [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to grow from Rmb0.69 in 2024 to Rmb1.27 by 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [5]. - The company's market capitalization is currently Rmb22.373 billion, with an enterprise value of Rmb44.740 billion [5].

Investment Rating - Stock Rating: Overweight [5] - Industry View: Attractive [5] - Price Target: Rmb67.00, representing a 28% upside from the current price of Rmb52.30 [5] Core Insights - The report projects single-digit growth for China in 2025, with a focus on faster growth in analyzer installations compared to reagent sales [2] - SNIBE aims for a 15% market share in CLIA in China within three years, with expectations of positive growth in reagent sales by the latter half of 2025 [2][8] - The company has a backlog of over 40 TLAs overseas and anticipates a 25-30% CAGR in overseas markets, despite aggressive targets [3][8] Summary by Sections Financial Projections - Expected revenue growth of approximately 15% in 2025, with mid/high single-digit growth in China and 25-30% growth overseas [8] - Net profit growth is projected at around 10% [8] - Management is considering increasing the dividend payout ratio to over 60% in 2025, up from 56% in 2024 [8] Market Position and Strategy - SNIBE's long-term strategy includes strengthening relationships with domestic vendors due to pricing pressures, which is expected to enhance distributor incentives [2] - The company is exploring the establishment of local supply chains in Russia and potentially in Europe in the future [8] Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes a discounted cash flow methodology with a WACC of 8.8% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% starting from 2025 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for China Resources Microelectronics (CR Micro) with a price target of Rmb40.00 for December 2026, based on a 26x one-year forward P/E ratio [1][12][28]. Core Insights - CR Micro reported 1Q25 sales of Rmb2.4 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase, while net profit surged by 151% year-over-year to Rmb83 million. However, gross margin declined due to increased depreciation from capacity release [1][12]. - The company is expected to experience a sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% and an earnings CAGR of 39% from 2025 to 2027, despite near-term profit pressures from joint venture (JV) losses in Shenzhen and Chongqing [1][12][27]. - The product segment is anticipated to outpace the service segment in long-term growth, with a projected 18% sales CAGR for products and 10% for services during 2025-2027 [7][12]. Financial Summary - For FY25, revenue is estimated at Rmb11,331 million, with a projected increase to Rmb12,983 million in FY26 and Rmb14,936 million in FY27 [11][20]. - The adjusted net income for FY25 is forecasted at Rmb858 million, increasing to Rmb1,421 million in FY26 and Rmb2,035 million in FY27 [11][20]. - The report indicates a decline in gross profit margin (GPM) from 27.2% in FY24 to 26.5% in FY25, with expectations of recovery to 28.4% by FY26 [20][31]. Market Position and Performance - CR Micro has underperformed the A-share Semiconductor Index by 5% year-to-date and is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 45x for FY26, which is 30% higher than its peers [7][12]. - The company is recognized as a leading power semiconductor supplier in China, with growth driven by an expanding product portfolio and market share gains [12][27]. Key Changes in Estimates - Revenue estimates for FY25 have been slightly revised down from Rmb11,382 million to Rmb11,331 million, while FY26 estimates have been adjusted from Rmb13,019 million to Rmb12,983 million [2][20]. - Adjusted earnings estimates for FY25 have been reduced by 40% to Rmb858 million, reflecting higher-than-expected investment losses from JV fabs [7][12]. Quarterly Forecasts - The quarterly revenue forecast for 1Q25 is Rmb2,355 million, with expectations of Rmb2,803 million in 2Q25, Rmb3,053 million in 3Q25, and Rmb3,120 million in 4Q25 [3][31]. Valuation - The price target of Rmb40.00 reflects a cautious outlook, considering sector-wide headwinds and is positioned at the trough level of historical valuation [12][28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Aier Eye Hospital Group is Underweight [5][68]. Core Views - The industry view is considered Attractive, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5][68]. - Aier Eye Hospital Group has experienced solid year-to-date growth in the refractory segment, with over 20% growth driven by improved average selling prices (ASP) and volume [3][8]. - The company plans to upgrade more SMILE 4.0 and Wavelight Plus equipment and launch ICL V5 to enhance its technology lead and drive ASP growth [3][8]. Summary by Sections Refractory Segment - The refractory segment has shown significant growth, with a 20%+ increase in 1Q25, attributed to ASP improvements and a recovery in end-demand [3][8]. - ICL procedures have also reversed the declining trend seen in 2024, contributing positively to year-over-year growth [3]. Cataract Segment - The cataract segment experienced single-digit percentage growth in 1Q25, with volume growth higher year-over-year, although blended prices continued to decline due to value-based pricing (VBP) expansion for intraocular lenses (IOLs) [4][8]. - Multi-focal lenses, which are fully paid out-of-pocket, have shown faster year-over-year growth compared to bifocal lenses, which are under VBP [4]. Financial Metrics - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, the estimated revenue is Rmb22,963 million, with an EPS of Rmb0.45 [5]. - The company is projected to have a P/E ratio of 29.1 and a return on equity (ROE) of 20.2% for the same period [5]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Aier Eye Hospital Group is Rmb122,575 million, with an average daily trading value of Rmb1,168 million [5]. - The stock price as of May 7, 2025, is Rmb13.14, with a price target set at Rmb11.50, indicating a potential downside of 12% [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Huaqin Technology (603296.SS) with a 12-month price target of Rmb81.80, indicating an upside potential of 13.6% from the current price of Rmb71.99 [9]. Core Insights - Huaqin Technology's management is optimistic about the growth of its AI server business and expects continued solid growth in consumer electronics, including smartphones and PCs. The company is also exploring new business opportunities in automotive electronics and robotics [1]. - The report highlights Huaqin's diversified product lines, which have shown strong growth in data center infrastructure, smart wearables, and automotive components, contributing significantly to the company's revenue mix [6]. - Huaqin is positioned well in the smart devices market, with expectations for steady growth in smartphone shipments and leadership in smart wearables, driven by generative AI and market share gains from brand customers [6]. - The outlook for Huaqin's PC and server business remains strong, with continued market share gains in the notebook and tablet ODM markets, benefiting from the AI localization trend in China [6][7]. Summary by Sections Business Expansion - Huaqin is expanding its product lines beyond smartphones and PCs to include data center infrastructure, automotive components, and IoT products, with significant revenue growth in these areas [6]. - The data center business revenue is expected to grow at a triple-digit rate, while smart wearables and automotive components are projected to see strong double-digit growth [6]. Market Position - Huaqin has a long-standing experience in ODM for smartphones and is expected to maintain steady growth in shipments due to increasing ODM penetration rates [6]. - The company leads in the Android TWS and smartwatch segments, with generative AI driving growth and brand customers gaining market share from white box competitors [6]. Financial Projections - The report provides financial forecasts, projecting revenues of Rmb109.88 billion in 2024, increasing to Rmb209.38 billion by 2027, with corresponding EBITDA growth [9]. - Huaqin's EPS is expected to grow from Rmb2.88 in 2024 to Rmb6.31 by 2027, reflecting strong earnings growth potential [9].

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [6] Core Insights - Humanoids can address pain points by providing lower deployment costs for long-tail cases where industrial robots are not economically viable. They are expected to deliver emotional value over the next decade [2] - Initial adoption scenarios for humanoids include box picking and 3C assembling, where they can help manufacturers reduce costs without competing with other robots like AGVs and AMRs. Delivery applications may also see humanoid integration within the next five years [3] - Key differentiators among integrators will be supply chain management and integration capabilities. A thorough understanding of components, whether through self-development or customization, is crucial for effective model development. Poor quality inputs can hinder humanoid performance [4][9] Summary by Sections - **Humanoid Adoption**: Humanoids are expected to adapt to complex environments and automate advanced tasks, solving many corner cases for broader applications. The U.S. has advantages in synthetic data and algorithms, while China's supply chain and government support may provide a long-term edge [9] - **Industry Players**: Insights from speakers from companies like UBTECH, Dobot, EngineAI, Flexiv, and Meritco Services highlight the importance of data collection from popular products to enhance generalization capabilities [9] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report covers various companies in the industrial sector, with ratings indicating potential investment opportunities. For example, China State Construction Engineering and Sany Heavy Industry are rated Overweight, suggesting expected performance above the average [57][59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Changdian Technology with a target price of 43.00 CNY, based on an 18x one-year forward P/E ratio [1][3][22]. Core Views - The future growth outlook for Changdian Technology is resilient, supported by improved capacity utilization, integration of Shengdie Shanghai, and strong seasonal demand for Apple modules. The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 11% and a profit growth rate of 43% from 2025 to 2027 [1][6][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Changdian Technology reported sales of 9.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 36% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15%. Net profit was 203 million CNY, up 50% year-on-year but down 62% quarter-on-quarter [1][11][22]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised by 9% and 11%, respectively, reflecting improved capacity utilization and revenue from the integration of Shengdie Shanghai. However, net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 37% and 11% due to increased depreciation and R&D expenses [2][11][19]. Revenue and Profit Growth - The report projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for sales and profits of 11% and 43%, respectively, from 2025 to 2027. The target price remains unchanged at 43.0 CNY, reflecting a conservative approach given the early stage of overall demand recovery [2][11][22]. Investment Rationale - The long-term growth potential of Changdian Technology is supported by an expanding customer base, increased market share in advanced packaging, and improved production efficiency. The company plans to invest 8.5 billion CNY in new capacity and related technology development, particularly in automotive electronics and advanced packaging [6][11][22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Sell" rating on YOFC-A due to expectations of soft demand through 2025E [13][16]. Core Insights - YOFC's 1Q25 net profit reached Rmb152 million, exceeding expectations by 19%, driven by strong performance in the datacom segment, particularly from AI and datacenter demand [1][9]. - The datacom segment is projected to grow significantly due to increased capital expenditure from Chinese cloud companies, while the telecom segment remains weak, contributing over 60% of YOFC's revenue in 2024 [2][9]. - A key uncertainty is the upcoming fiber cable tender from China Mobile, which could impact pricing and overall growth momentum [2][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - YOFC's revenue estimates for 2025E have been revised up by approximately 2%, with net profit estimates increased by 7% to 12% [9][10]. - The 12-month price target for YOFC-H is revised to HK$12.5, based on a 9x 2026E P/E, while the A-share target is set at Rmb28.6, based on a 22x 2026E P/E [9][16]. Market Dynamics - The datacom segment is expected to benefit from strong demand, while the telecom market is currently experiencing muted demand [2][13]. - YOFC's pricing estimates for fiber cables in 2025E have factored in a 6% price drop compared to 2024 [2][9]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that a recovery in demand in 2025 could lead to a more positive outlook for YOFC, particularly if the China Mobile tender results in improved pricing dynamics [13][14]. - Key upside risks include stronger-than-expected demand and pricing resilience, which could enhance margins and net profit outlook [14][17].