Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company faced significant challenges in Q3 due to a decline in sales and the Mega recall, resulting in a quarterly loss. Q3 sales were 93,200 units, down 39% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter, with revenue decreasing 36% year-on-year to 27.4 billion yuan [1]. - The company is shifting back to a startup management model, focusing on user value and efficiency, while also planning to launch an AI system based on its self-developed M100 chip by 2026 [2]. - The i6 model is expected to alleviate supply chain capacity constraints, with production capacity projected to reach 20,000 units per month by early 2026 [3]. Financial Summary - Q3 gross margin was 16.3%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the Mega recall costs and increased unit manufacturing costs [1]. - The company forecasts Q4 vehicle deliveries between 100,000 and 110,000 units, with revenue expected to be between 26.5 billion and 29.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 34.2% to 40.1% [1]. - For the years 2025-2027, the company anticipates sales of approximately 410,000, 590,000, and 700,000 units, with total revenues reaching 112.2 billion, 148.3 billion, and 182.4 billion yuan respectively [3]. Financial Metrics - The company reported a net loss of 625 million yuan in Q3, with a Non-GAAP net loss of 360 million yuan, translating to a Non-GAAP net loss margin of 1.3% [1]. - The projected GAAP net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 1.1 billion, 5.3 billion, and 8.1 billion yuan, with corresponding net profit margins of 1.0%, 3.5%, and 4.4% [3]. - The report indicates a target market capitalization of 163.1 billion yuan, with a target price of approximately 84 HKD per share [3].

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 29 年 月 日 蔚来-SW（09866.HK） 预计 Q4 扭亏、2026 年全年目标盈利 Q3 毛利率超预期，Q4 收入指引相对保守、季度维持扭亏为盈目标。公司 25Q3 交付 了 87071 台车，同比增长 40.8%、环比增长 20.8%，其中蔚来/乐道/萤火虫品牌分别 交 付 36928/37656/12487 辆车。销量的高增长带动 Q3 收入同比 /环比增长 16.7%/14.7%至 218 亿元，其中汽车销售同比/环比增长 15%/19%至 192 亿元。公司 Q3 毛利率 13.9%，同比/环比提升 3.2pct/3.9pct。其中，汽车毛利率同比/环比分别提 升 1.6pct/4.4pct 至 14.7%，改善主要来自公司全面降本措施及规模经济。服务及其他 毛利率同比提升 16.5pct 至 7.8%，主要来自降本增效带来的零部件、配件销售及车辆 售后服务毛利率提升。由于有效的组织优化、新产品及新技术不同开发阶段带来的设计 及开发费用下降，公司 Q3 研发费用降低至 24 亿元；由于新产品推出相关的销售及营 销活动，公司 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company reported a 42.5% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the fiscal year 2026, driven by product and store efficiency optimization, as well as an increase in gross margin [1][3] - Same-store sales continued to show double-digit growth from October 1 to November 21, indicating a sustained positive trend [1] - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.55 per share, with a payout ratio of 52% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year 2026, the company achieved revenue of HKD 6.843 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, and a net profit of HKD 619 million, reflecting a growth of 42.5% [1] - The gross margin improved by 2 percentage points to 34.7%, reaching a historical high, benefiting from rising gold prices and an increased proportion of high-margin priced jewelry [2] - The retail business revenue grew by 12.8%, accounting for 76.8% of total revenue, while wholesale business revenue surged by 190.6%, making up 16.3% of total revenue [2] Business Segmentation - The revenue from weight-based products increased by 11%, while fixed-price products saw a growth of 67.9%, with the latter's share rising by 8.8 percentage points to 35.7%, and the proportion of priced gold is expected to reach around 25% [2] - The revenue from the mainland China market grew by 54.2%, accounting for 43.6% of total revenue, while revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets increased by 9.9%, making up 56.4% [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from product innovation, channel optimization, and accelerated overseas development, with projected net profits of HKD 1.501 billion, HKD 1.787 billion, and HKD 2.028 billion for fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [3][4] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 9.5, 8.0, and 7.1 for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, indicating a favorable valuation [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated a significant acceleration in revenue growth in Q3, achieving a revenue of 5.797 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, surpassing previous guidance [2]. - The adjusted operating profit for Q3 was 1.022 billion, up 14.8% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit reached 767 million, reflecting an 11.7% increase [2]. - The company expects Q4 revenue growth to be between 25% and 30%, with double-digit same-store sales growth anticipated in both China and the U.S. [2]. - The domestic business is benefiting from a large store strategy and refined operations, with same-store sales showing a positive trend [4]. - The overseas business is expanding rapidly, with a net addition of 117 stores in Q3, bringing the total overseas store count to 3,424 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue for the brand was 5.222 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%, with domestic revenue at 2.909 billion, up 19.3% [2]. - The company forecasts a full-year revenue growth of 25%, with adjusted operating profit expected to be between 3.65 billion and 3.85 billion [4]. - The financial projections for 2023 to 2027 indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with 2023 revenue projected at 13.839 billion, growing to 28.578 billion by 2027 [5]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 is estimated at 2.253 billion, with a projected increase to 3.257 billion by 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][37][42]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 1.4% to 8.93 billion yuan and a net profit growth of 5.3% to 1.19 billion yuan for the first half of the 2025/26 fiscal year [1][10]. - The brand's down jacket segment continues to lead growth, with a revenue increase of 8.3% to 6.57 billion yuan, despite challenges in other segments [1][15]. - The company has successfully reduced inventory by 20.3% and improved cash flow, maintaining a stable dividend payout with a mid-term dividend of 6.3 HKD cents, up 5% year-on-year [2][28]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of the 2025/26 fiscal year, the company achieved a revenue of 89.3 billion yuan, with a net profit of 11.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.4% and 5.3% year-on-year increase, respectively [1][10]. - The overall gross margin increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, driven by the growth in the down jacket business [1][23]. Business Segments - **Brand Down Jackets**: Revenue increased by 8.3% to 6.57 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 59.1%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points [1][15]. - **OEM Processing**: Revenue decreased by 11.8% to 2.04 billion yuan, but the gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 20.5% [15][23]. - **Women's Wear**: Revenue fell by 18.6% to 250 million yuan, with a gross margin of 59.9% [15][23]. - **Diversified Apparel**: Revenue decreased by 45.3% to 60 million yuan, primarily due to a decline in the school uniform business [16][23]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on brand leadership and product innovation by collaborating with top international designers to enhance its high-end image and market recognition [3][31]. - Digital transformation efforts include establishing an AI innovation lab in collaboration with Zhejiang University to improve design efficiency [3][32]. - The company is optimizing its channel strategy, with online revenue growth of 2.4% and a net increase of 85 self-operated stores and 285 dealer stores [3][33]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates accelerated growth in the second half of the fiscal year, supported by strong sales performance in the down jacket segment since October [4][37]. - Profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 are projected at 3.91 billion, 4.30 billion, and 4.73 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.1%, 10.2%, and 10.0% [4][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) [5][25] Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for FY26Q2 reached 247.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The Chinese e-commerce group, international digital commerce group, and cloud intelligence group achieved year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 10%, and 34%, respectively, while other segments saw a decline of 25% [1][9] - The adjusted EBITA for the quarter was 9.1 billion yuan, down 78% year-on-year, resulting in an adjusted EBITA margin of 3.7%. The non-GAAP net profit was 10.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 71.7% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 4.2% [1][9] - Free cash flow for the quarter was a net outflow of 21.8 billion yuan, primarily due to increased investments in flash sales and cloud infrastructure [1][9] Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - The Chinese e-commerce group's CMR revenue grew by 10% year-on-year in FY26Q2, benefiting from increased technology service fees and improved site penetration rates. Instant retail revenue reached 22.9 billion yuan, up 60% year-on-year [2][13] - The adjusted EBITA for the Chinese e-commerce group was 10.5 billion yuan, down 76% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 7.9%, a decline of 31 percentage points [2][14] - The company is focusing on optimizing user experience while maintaining market share, with logistics costs significantly reduced compared to previous large-scale investments [2][14] Cloud Computing - The cloud intelligence group's revenue for FY26Q2 was 39.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34%. Overall revenue, excluding intercompany transactions, grew by 29% year-on-year, with AI-related product revenue continuing to show triple-digit growth [3][15] - The adjusted EBITA margin for the cloud segment was 9.0%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous quarter. Capital expenditures (CAPEX) for the quarter were 31.5 billion yuan, up 70% year-on-year [3][15] - The company anticipates a strong demand for AI over the next three years, with potential for additional CAPEX investments beyond the planned 380 billion yuan [3][15] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been slightly adjusted to 1,046.3 billion yuan, 1,182.3 billion yuan, and 1,293.0 billion yuan, respectively, with minor downward adjustments due to a focus on profitability in international e-commerce [4][25] - Adjusted net profit projections for FY2026 to FY2028 are set at 111.7 billion yuan, 145.0 billion yuan, and 172.0 billion yuan, with slight adjustments reflecting better-than-expected profit improvement in international e-commerce [4][25] - The company is currently trading at a PE ratio of 24 times for FY2026 [4][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][13] Core Insights - The company has experienced rapid revenue and profit growth driven by original research drugs, and this trend is expected to continue long-term [1][6] - For FY2026, the company projects a revenue growth of 10-15% year-on-year, with a mid-year revenue of 167 billion yuan, representing a 17% increase compared to the previous year [1][6] - The adjusted net profit for FY2025 was 14 billion yuan, a 39% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 8.1% [2][7] Revenue Summary - The company's self-operated pharmaceutical revenue reached 143 billion yuan in FY2026, up 19% year-on-year, largely due to a 99% increase in SKU supply for B2C retail products [1][6] - E-commerce platform service revenue was 18 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year, with advertising revenue growing over 10% [1][6] - The medical health and digital services segment generated 5 billion yuan, also reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [1][6] Profit Summary - The adjusted net profit margin improved to 8.1% in FY2025, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.1% [2][7] - The company has reduced its fulfillment cost ratio to 8.2%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [2][7] - For FY2026, the company anticipates a net profit growth of 20-30% year-on-year, with a mid-year profit projection of 1-21% [2][7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 have been adjusted to 348 billion, 379 billion, and 410 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a 4% increase from previous estimates [3][13] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 25 billion, 30 billion, and 34 billion yuan, also a 6% increase from prior estimates [3][13] - The current stock price corresponds to a FY2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 37 times [3][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.928 billion RMB for the first half of FY2026, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.189 billion RMB, up 5.3%, aligning with expectations [2]. - The company's down jacket business saw revenue of 6.568 billion RMB, growing 8.3% year-on-year, driven by steady growth in both direct and franchise channels [3]. - The gross margin improved by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, although the down jacket gross margin decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 59.1% due to a higher proportion of lower-margin distribution channels [4]. - The company is optimistic about its performance in the second half of the year, supported by successful new product launches and effective inventory management [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company achieved a revenue of 8.928 billion RMB in the first half of FY2026, with a net profit of 1.189 billion RMB, reflecting a 1.4% and 5.3% increase respectively [2]. Operational Analysis - The down jacket segment generated 6.568 billion RMB in revenue, with the main brand, Bosideng, contributing 5.719 billion RMB, showing an 8.3% increase [3]. - The online channel revenue for down jackets was 1.383 billion RMB, up 2.4%, while offline direct and franchise channels reported revenues of 2.411 billion RMB and 3.701 billion RMB, growing 6.6% and 7.9% respectively [3]. Margin and Cost Management - The gross margin increased slightly to 50.0%, with effective cost control reflected in the marketing management expense ratio [4]. - Inventory turnover days decreased by 11 days compared to the previous year, indicating improved inventory management [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.920 billion RMB, 4.322 billion RMB, and 4.739 billion RMB for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is exploring new growth points in value-added services by partnering with Keda Nengtong to develop community-based new energy services, focusing on sectors such as automotive, home furnishings, retail, and services [2] - The company has seen significant growth in its liquor business, with a year-on-year increase of over 88% in six trial regions, generating revenue of 190 million [2] - The company is also expanding its community charging business, with over 600,000 charging sockets operational across more than 5,000 communities, serving over 100 million users [2] - The "Zero Resident" cleaning robot has been deployed in 17 projects across major cities, with plans to scale to 1,000 units, enhancing efficiency and cost savings [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 42,612 million in 2023 to 52,727 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 292 million in 2023 to 1,977 million by 2027, reflecting a significant recovery after a decline [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.09 in 2023 to 0.59 in 2027 [7] - The gross margin is expected to decline from 20.5% in 2023 to 17.0% in 2027, indicating pressure on profitability [7] Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company's stock is set at 6.83 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11X for 2026 [8] - The current stock price is 6.58 HKD, suggesting a potential upside [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leader in the domestic neuro and peripheral interventional medical device market, with strong commercialization capabilities and rapid sales growth driven by the gradual implementation of domestic centralized procurement [2][10]. - The company has a comprehensive product pipeline with 73 products, of which 51 have received NMPA approval and 8 have obtained EU CE certification, positioning it well for future growth [10][14]. - The company has established a wide distribution network covering over 3,000 hospitals, leading to significant revenue growth in both neurovascular and peripheral vascular interventions [10][18]. - The international business has shown robust growth, with a 36.9% increase in revenue from overseas markets in the first half of 2025, indicating strong potential for long-term international market expansion [10][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Neuro and Peripheral Intervention Dual Development - The company focuses on neuro and peripheral vascular interventional medical devices, having developed a range of products with independent intellectual property rights that meet domestic and international standards [14][15]. - The sales revenue for neurovascular intervention products increased by 25.0% and for peripheral vascular intervention products by 46.2% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [18][19]. 2. Market Growth Potential - The domestic neuro intervention surgery penetration rate is expected to increase, with significant growth in the market size anticipated [32][40]. - The number of neuro intervention surgeries in China is projected to grow from approximately 161,400 in 2020 to about 740,500 by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 28.9% [38][40]. 3. Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenue of RMB 782 million for 2024, increasing to RMB 1,773 million by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate of 29.1% [4][10]. - The net profit is expected to grow from RMB 100 million in 2024 to RMB 393 million in 2027, with a significant increase in profit margins [4][10]. 4. International Market Expansion - The company has successfully penetrated 27 overseas markets, with a focus on Europe and emerging markets such as Brazil, India, and South Africa [22][23]. - The international business is expected to continue its rapid growth, supported by strategic partnerships with over 60 local partners [23][24]. 5. Profitability and Cost Management - The company maintains a stable gross margin of approximately 71.2% while optimizing production and supply chain processes [27][28]. - Research and development expenditures increased by 19.7% in the first half of 2025, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation and product development [30].