延续同店增势和经营韧性 华泰研究 季报点评 证券研究报告 百胜中国 (9987 HK/YUMC US) 港股通 2025 年 11 月 05 日│中国香港/美国 餐饮 百胜中国公布三季度业绩：3Q25 收入 32 亿美元/yoy+4%，不计及外币换 算 yoy+4%；3Q25 经营利润 4.00 亿美元/yoy+8%，略高于彭博一致预期 （3.98 亿美元）。对应经营利润率 12.5%/yoy+0.4pct（不计及外币换算 yoy+0.4pct）；3Q25 归母净利润 2.82 亿美元/yoy-5%，主要受 Q3 美团股 价回调影响，剔除美团投资亏损后归母净利同比+7%。Q3 股东回馈合计 4.14 亿美元（前 9 个月合计回馈 9.50 亿美元），宣布每股派息 0.24 美元；预计 全年回馈合计约 15 亿美元。季内肯德基、必胜客 Q3 同店延续稳健增长， 新店型及新品类落地进展顺利，成本费率端控制得当，同比基数抬升下经营 利润增长表现靓丽，西式快餐龙头兼具扩张势能与盈利韧性。维持买入评级。 同店延续稳健增长，经营利润率温和上涨 3Q25 公司整体系统销售额+4%，同店同比+1%，延续 Q2 增势。分品牌看 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company leverages gene editing technology to create a comprehensive antibody drug development platform, focusing on innovative solutions [2][16]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a projected revenue CAGR of over 40% from 2021 to 2024, and is expected to turn profitable in 2024 [28][30]. - The antibody development business is a key driver of growth, with a revenue CAGR of 53% from 2021 to 2024 [5][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2009, the company has developed a full human antibody library using its proprietary RenMice® platform, launching the "Thousand Mice, Ten Thousand Antibodies" initiative in 2020 [3][17]. - The company has created over 1 million full human antibody sequences targeting more than 1,000 potential drug targets [3][17]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 621 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.3%, with a gross margin of 74.4% [3][30]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 14.2 billion yuan, 19.3 billion yuan, and 26.1 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 323%, 103%, and 75% respectively [6][8]. Business Segments - The preclinical animal products and pharmacological services provide a stable foundation, with model animal sales reaching 274 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 56% increase year-on-year [4][34]. - The antibody development business has become the core driver of performance, with 163 million yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, a 38% increase year-on-year [5][34]. Market Position - The company has established partnerships with the top ten global pharmaceutical companies, leveraging its expertise in gene editing and model animals [4][21]. - The antibody drug market is experiencing rapid growth, with the global antibody drug market projected to reach 2.704 trillion USD in 2024, growing to 4.634 trillion USD by 2031 [47][49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yum China (09987.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [5][22]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of $3.206 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. Operating profit rose by 7.8% to $400 million, driven by improved restaurant operational efficiency. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.1% to $282 million due to pre-tax investment losses of approximately $10 million [1][8]. - Same-store sales showed resilience with a 1% increase overall, while KFC and Pizza Hut reported increases of 2% and 1%, respectively. KFC's transaction volume increased by 3%, while Pizza Hut's transaction volume grew by 17% despite a decline in average ticket price [2][12]. - The company opened 536 new stores in Q3 2025, maintaining its annual target of 1,600 to 1,800 new stores. The total number of stores reached 17,514, with a growing proportion of franchise stores [3][14]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, the company forecasts net profit of $927 million, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at $2.62. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is estimated to be 17.1x [4][21]. - The operating margin for Q3 2025 was 16.0% for KFC and 8.9% for Pizza Hut, reflecting a slight improvement year-on-year [1][8]. - The company plans to return approximately $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2025, with ongoing stock buybacks and dividends [21][22]. Operational Efficiency - The company has seen continuous improvement in operational efficiency, with employee benefits accounting for 26.2% of costs, while food costs decreased to 31.3% [3][18]. - The membership program has grown to 575 million members, with member sales accounting for 57% of total sales [14][21]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on innovation with the expansion of its coffee brand and the introduction of new store formats, such as K pro, which has already reached 100 locations [21]. - The outlook for same-store sales remains positive, driven by ongoing product innovation and expansion plans [21][22].

2025 年 11 月 5 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 贝克微 (2149 HK) 贝克微 (2149 HK) - 纳入恒生半 整、四季度定价能力提升；重申 纳入恒生半导体指数、进行分销商战略性调整、四 "买入"评级 季度定价能力提升；重申"买入"评级 恒生指数正式将"恒生资讯科技业指数"更名为"恒生半导体行业主题指数"，并将 贝克微（2149 HK）纳入成份股，自 2025 年 11 月 7 日起生效。我们认为这将为 贝克微带来结构性利好，公司将有望受益于潜在被动资金流入提升市场流动性的 同时，吸引主动管理型基金的关注。重申"买入"评级；目标价维持 93 港元不变， 基于 26.6 倍 2025 年预测市盈率。 | (截至 12 月 31 日) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 销售收入 (百万人民币) | 464 | 579 | 672 | 841 | 1,046 | | 同比增长 (%) | 31.6 | 24.8 | 16.1 | 25.1 | 24. ...

整、四季度定价能力提升；重申 纳入恒生半导体指数、进行分销商战略性调整、四 "买入"评级 季度定价能力提升；重申"买入"评级 恒生指数正式将"恒生资讯科技业指数"更名为"恒生半导体行业主题指数"，并将 贝克微（2149 HK）纳入成份股，自 2025 年 11 月 7 日起生效。我们认为这将为 贝克微带来结构性利好，公司将有望受益于潜在被动资金流入提升市场流动性的 同时，吸引主动管理型基金的关注。重申"买入"评级；目标价维持 93 港元不变， 基于 26.6 倍 2025 年预测市盈率。 | (截至 12 月 31 日) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 销售收入 (百万人民币) | 464 | 579 | 672 | 841 | 1,046 | | 同比增长 (%) | 31.6 | 24.8 | 16.1 | 25.1 | 24.4 | | 毛利率 (%) | 55.4 | 53.0 | 52.4 | 52.4 | 52.4 | | 运营利润 (百万人民币) | 113.4 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price of HKD 55.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.9% from the current price of HKD 45.88 [4][8][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that K12 education may accelerate, boosting shareholder returns and enhancing confidence in the company's growth prospects [2]. - Financial forecasts indicate a revenue growth trajectory, with expected revenues of USD 4.9 billion in 2025, growing to USD 6.875 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% [3][16]. - The net profit is projected to increase from USD 372 million in 2025 to USD 792 million by 2028, with a notable increase in earnings per share (EPS) from USD 0.32 in 2025 to USD 0.45 in 2028 [3][16]. Financial Overview - Revenue (in million USD) is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 4,314 - 2025: 4,900 - 2026E: 5,413 - 2027E: 6,136 - 2028E: 6,875 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 43.9% in 2024, 13.6% in 2025, and gradually declining to 12.0% by 2028 [3][16]. - Net profit (in million USD) projections are: - 2024: 310 - 2025: 372 - 2026E: 428 - 2027E: 481 - 2028E: 792 [3][16]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15x for K12 business and 8x for study abroad business, reflecting expected profit growth rates of +25% and -7% respectively [7][8]. - The target price was adjusted upwards to HKD 55.00 from a previous HKD 46.00, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the strong demand and growth outlook for K12 education services [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiumaojiu (09922.HK) with a target price of HKD 2.24 [2][8]. Core Insights - Jiumaojiu's same-store sales have shown improvement over three consecutive quarters, with Taier's same-store daily sales declining by 9.3% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the 19.0% decline in the first half of the year. The other brands, Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu, also showed reduced declines of 19.1% and 14.8% respectively [2][8]. - The company is actively implementing its "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurant upgrades, with 106 locations operational by the end of September, aiming to expand to over 200 by year-end, reinforcing its strategy of fresh ingredients [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 6,074 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3%. However, a decline of 9.1% is expected in 2025, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 9.4% and 7.7% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be HKD 56 million in 2024, with a dramatic increase to HKD 150 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 168.7%. This trend continues with projected profits of HKD 204 million and HKD 242 million in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from HKD 0.04 in 2024 to HKD 0.11 in 2025, and further to HKD 0.15 and HKD 0.17 in the following years [4][9]. Operational Insights - The total number of restaurants, including franchises, reached 686 by September 30, 2025, with Taier accounting for 530 locations [8]. - The average table turnover rate for Taier was 3.3, with stable average spending per customer at HKD 74 for Taier and HKD 100 for Song Hotpot [8]. - The strategic focus has shifted from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience, moving away from price competition [8]. Growth Drivers - The core growth driver is the accelerated rollout of the "5.0 Fresh Model," which is expected to enhance brand positioning and customer experience [8]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting increased confidence in its operational strategy and market recovery [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [11] Core Insights - The company is positioned for a valuation re-rating in the AI era, driven by a strong new vehicle cycle and advancements in AI technology. The expectation is for multiple new models to launch in 2025, enhancing sales and profitability. The combination of scale, cost reduction from platform and technology, and expansion into software profitability and international markets provides significant earnings flexibility [3][9][16]. Summary by Sections Introduction: Valuation in the AI Era - Historically, the company's valuation primarily considered automotive business expectations, neglecting AI-related aspects such as smart driving, Robotaxi, robots, and flying cars. The price-to-sales (PS) ratio has been in the range of 1.5-2 times, while Tesla's PS exceeds 10 times, reflecting its strong AI application valuation. The company is transitioning to a global AI automotive firm, aiming to create an AI ecosystem encompassing AI cars, robots, and flying vehicles, which could significantly enhance its valuation potential [6][16]. AI Pricing Potential Compared to Tesla - Tesla's valuation is significantly higher than traditional automakers, with a dynamic PE midpoint of approximately 135.06 and an actual dynamic PE of 230.22. The valuation reflects market expectations for Tesla's AI application business. The theoretical dynamic PE for Tesla's various business segments indicates substantial valuation premiums for its AI applications, particularly Robotaxi, which accounts for 50% of its valuation [7][17][27]. Deep AI Accumulation and Ecosystem Development - The company has a strong foundation in AI applications and is fully pivoting towards an AI strategy. It aims to become a global AI automotive technology enterprise over the next decade. The core elements supporting this strategy include high-performance chips and large-scale models. The company has established a "three-in-one" intelligent ecosystem that includes AI cars, robots, and flying vehicles. Key developments include: 1. Smart Driving and Robotaxi: Plans to launch L4 autonomous vehicles and initiate Robotaxi trials in 2026 [8][9]. 2. AI Robots: The next-generation robot is expected to be unveiled soon, with mass production targeted for 2026 [8]. 3. Flying Cars: The company leads in flying car development, with a significant order backlog and production capacity set to support large-scale deliveries in 2026 [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates a valuation re-rating as AI applications gain traction. The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth, with projections of 83.1 billion and 135.8 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PS ratios of 1.9X and 1.1X. The overall outlook is positive, supporting the "Buy" rating [9][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Insights - The company has experienced a mid-single-digit decline in retail sales for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025, with offline channels seeing a high single-digit decline, while e-commerce recorded a high single-digit growth [1] - The company has strengthened its brand through partnerships with the Chinese Olympic Committee and has showcased its products at various international sporting events, enhancing its visibility and cultural representation [2] - The company has expanded its instant retail capabilities by partnering with Meituan, allowing for a rapid delivery service across nearly a hundred cities, catering to diverse consumer needs [3] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 remains unchanged, with expected revenues of 29.1 billion RMB, 30 billion RMB, and 31.1 billion RMB, and net profits of 2.5 billion RMB, 2.7 billion RMB, and 2.9 billion RMB respectively [4] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the company had 6,132 sales points in China, with a net increase of 33 points from the previous quarter, despite a net decrease in retail points [1] Brand Development - The company has been appointed as the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee for the 2025-2028 period, showcasing its commitment to cultural representation and sportsmanship [2] Instant Retail Expansion - The company has launched its products on the Meituan platform, enhancing its distribution strategy and providing a quick delivery service to meet consumer demands [3] Financial Forecast - The company maintains its earnings forecast for 2025-2027, projecting steady revenue and profit growth [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "OUTPERFORM" rating, targeting a price of HK$36.50, indicating a potential upside of 46.7% from the current price of HK$24.90 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading platform provider in the smart terminal manufacturing industry, benefiting from the innovation cycle of major clients in smartphones and computers over the next three years. The strategic innovation in ultra-thin automotive laminated glass is expected to drive growth, while previous margin pressures from overseas factories are anticipated to ease [3][4]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for the company, estimating revenues of RMB 87.41 billion, RMB 110.55 billion, and RMB 133.14 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of RMB 4.79 billion, RMB 6.80 billion, and RMB 8.36 billion during the same period [2][3]. Company Overview - The company started with glass processing and has evolved into a global leader in the smart terminal manufacturing industry, providing comprehensive precision manufacturing solutions. It has expanded its business into various fields, including smartphones, computers, smart vehicles, and humanoid robots [4][10]. - The company has achieved vertical integration across the entire supply chain, from raw material production to assembly, and has diversified into new areas such as smart automotive and robotics [4][10]. Industry Situation - The consumer electronics sector is experiencing a revival driven by new technology innovations and a replacement cycle, particularly in smartphones. Global smartphone shipments are projected to reach 1.24 billion units in 2024, marking a 6.4% year-on-year increase [18][19]. - The automotive market is also growing rapidly, with smart vehicle sales expected to rise from 73.2 million units in 2025 to 92.1 million units by 2029, driven by increasing demand for smart features [25][26]. - The humanoid robotics market is anticipated to grow significantly, with the market size expected to increase from USD 2.3 billion in 2025 to USD 12.9 billion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 54.4% [28][29]. Financial Data - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of RMB 53.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.08%, and a net profit of RMB 2.84 billion, up 19.91% year-on-year. The smartphone and computer segment remains the primary revenue source, accounting for over 80% of total revenue [31][34]. - The automotive and cockpit business also showed steady growth, with revenues of RMB 3.17 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 16.45% year-on-year increase [34].