Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for HSBC Holdings PLC [2][3] Core Insights - The report highlights effective cost control and structural optimization as key strategies for the company [1] - The company expects a slight decrease in net income for 2025, with a projected decline of 2.6% year-on-year, followed by a modest recovery of 2.7% in 2026 [3] - The target price for HSBC is set at HK$89.51, based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.10 for 2025 [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 2023, net interest income was reported at US$35.796 billion, with a projected decrease to US$33.404 billion in 2025 [2][15] - The pre-tax profit for 2023 was US$30.348 billion, with expectations of US$30.479 billion in 2025 [2][15] - The net income attributable to the parent company for 2023 was US$22.432 billion, with a forecast of US$22.327 billion for 2025 [2][15] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 14.87% in 2023 to 14.00% in 2025 [2][15] Operational Highlights - The company reported a year-on-year increase in operating revenue of US$1.2 billion (up 8.8%), driven by net interest income and wealth management business income [4][17] - The wealth management business saw significant growth across all lines, including asset management (+8%), life insurance (+58%), private banking (+23%), and investment product sales (+31%) [20] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 50% in 2025, with a US$2 billion share buyback expected to be completed before the Q1 2025 earnings report [18] Cost Management - HSBC aims to save approximately US$1.5 billion in expenses by 2026, with a projected reduction of US$300 million in 2025 [9][21] - The company has successfully stabilized the proportion of time deposits over the past two quarters, reducing interest rate sensitivity through increased hedging [19] Credit and Risk Management - The credit cost guidance for 2025 is maintained at 30-40 basis points, with an annualized credit cost of 57 basis points reported for Q4 2024 [8][21] - The company reported a total loan amount decrease of 1% year-on-year, while deposits increased by 2.7% [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a turnaround and consider dividend distribution once its related business becomes profitable [2][98] - The acquisition of BTHL has increased the company's stake to 70%, enhancing its revenue and cash flow sources [2][12] - A fare adjustment of 7.5% for city and New Territories routes has been approved, effective January 5, 2025, which is anticipated to positively impact profitability [2][90] Business Overview - The company, through its subsidiary Glorify, acquired approximately 54.44% of BTHL for HK$ 2.72 billion, raising its ownership to 70% [2][12] - BTHL focuses on providing public bus and tourism-related services under the Citybus brand and is the exclusive advertising agent for Citybus vehicle advertising [2][12] - The merger of Citybus and Newbus is expected to optimize routes, enhance operational efficiency, and reduce costs [3][7] Financial Data and Peer Comparison - BTHL generated total revenue of HK$ 34.9 billion in 2023, accounting for 78.6% of the group's total revenue [98] - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HK$ 1 billion, with a potential dividend yield of 6% to 7% based on a 95% profit distribution [2][98] - The financial performance of the bus industry improved significantly in 2023, with a recovery in passenger numbers post-pandemic [98][101] Industry Overview - The Hong Kong public bus industry consists of both franchised and non-franchised bus services, with franchised buses serving areas not easily accessible by rail [60] - The number of franchised bus routes in Hong Kong increased from 670 in 2018 to 750 in 2023, with Citybus operating 233 routes [60][92] - The industry size was approximately HK$ 10.64 billion in 2023, with Citybus holding a market share of about 27.9% [92][93]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 260 million to 280 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.1% to 46.6%, with revenues projected at 2.31 billion yuan, a 17.3% increase [1]. - The business model has been validated, with a significant increase in order amounts, projected at approximately 3.51 billion yuan for 2024, marking a 49.4% year-on-year growth [2]. - The integration of AI capabilities is expected to enhance user engagement and operational efficiency, leading to higher profit elasticity [2][3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company launched the "Jiufang Lingxi" financial dialogue intelligent agent, enhancing its decision-making and user interaction capabilities [1]. - Positive profit forecasts for 2024 indicate strong growth potential [1]. Operational Analysis - The company anticipates a high revenue increase in 2025, supported by a robust order backlog and improved market conditions [2]. - AI tools are expected to enhance service delivery without a proportional increase in costs [2]. AI Functionality Upgrade - The "Jiufang Lingxi" intelligent agent will provide advanced investment advisory services, leveraging real-time financial data [3]. - Continuous development of AI models aims to improve various operational areas, including customer service and compliance [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 2.31 billion, 3.44 billion, and 4.06 billion yuan, with corresponding net profit estimates of 274 million, 927 million, and 1.21 billion yuan [4]. - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 46.49, 13.73, and 10.56, reflecting a favorable valuation outlook [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company, Hans Group Holdings (00554.HK), has acquired an additional 54.44% stake in BTHL for HK$ 2.72 billion, increasing its ownership to 70% [2][12] - The acquisition is expected to lead to a turnaround and potential dividend distribution, with a 7.5% fare increase approved for Citybus routes, effective January 5, 2025, which is anticipated to have a minimal impact on demand [2][98] - The merger of Citybus and New World First Bus is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs through route optimization and resource sharing [3][7] Business Overview - The acquisition of BTHL is valued at approximately HK$ 5.0 billion, with HK$ 500 million paid in cash and HK$ 220 million in shares [12] - BTHL focuses on providing public bus and tourism-related services in Hong Kong, as well as advertising services [13] - Citybus operates 233 franchised bus routes, with a fleet of 1,495 licensed buses, primarily serving the Hong Kong Island area [23] Financial Data and Peer Comparison - In 2023, BTHL generated total revenue of HK$ 3.49 billion, accounting for 78.6% of the group's total revenue [98] - The company reported a net loss of HK$ 73.6 million in 2023, with an operating profit margin of 3.4% [101] - The financial performance of the franchised bus industry improved significantly in 2023, with a recovery in passenger numbers post-pandemic [101] Industry Overview - The Hong Kong franchised bus industry is projected to reach a market size of approximately HK$ 10.64 billion in 2023, with Citybus holding a market share of about 27.9% [92] - The number of franchised bus routes in Hong Kong increased from 670 in 2018 to 750 in 2023, with Citybus routes growing from 205 to 233 [60] - The report highlights that the demand for franchised bus services remains relatively inelastic, suggesting that fare increases will not significantly affect ridership [98]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [6][13]. Core Insights - The company's main business performance remains robust, with a significant profit expectation increase in the second half of the year after excluding impairment losses [2][7]. - The report highlights that despite a decline in total revenue year-on-year due to market pressures, the company benefits from a decrease in raw milk prices, leading to improved gross and operating profit margins [7]. - The company anticipates a profit of RMB 0.5-2.5 billion for 2024, primarily due to impairment provisions related to brand acquisitions, with specific expected impairments of RMB 3.8-4 billion for Bellamy and RMB 0.79-0.9 billion affecting the profit statement [7]. - The company assures that dividend declarations will not be impacted by one-time factors, maintaining a commitment to increase the payout ratio to 50% over the next two years [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 92,593 million in 2022, RMB 98,624 million in 2023, with an expected decline to RMB 87,504 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 91,904 million in 2025 and RMB 96,934 million in 2026 [10]. - Net profit is projected to drop significantly to RMB 244 million in 2024, recovering to RMB 5,078 million in 2025 and RMB 5,853 million in 2026 [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be RMB 1.34 in 2022, declining to RMB 1.22 in 2023, and then dropping to RMB 0.06 in 2024, before rebounding to RMB 1.29 in 2025 and RMB 1.48 in 2026 [10]. - The report indicates a target price adjustment to HKD 20.94, up from HKD 16.04, based on a 15x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 260 million to 280 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.1% to 46.6%, with revenues projected at 2.31 billion yuan, a 17.3% increase [1]. - The business model has been validated, with a significant increase in order amounts, reaching approximately 3.51 billion yuan in 2024, a 49.4% year-on-year growth [2]. - The integration of AI technology is enhancing user engagement and operational efficiency, with expectations for increased monthly active users on the "九方智投" app [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company launched the "九方灵犀" financial dialogue AI platform, enhancing its decision-making and user interaction capabilities [1]. - The positive profit forecast for 2024 indicates strong growth potential [1]. Operational Analysis - The company benefited from a recovering capital market, leading to a substantial increase in order amounts for 2024 [2]. - The use of AI tools is expected to improve service efficiency while keeping personnel costs lower than revenue growth [2]. AI Functionality Upgrade - The "九方灵犀" AI assistant provides intelligent investment advisory services, integrating real-time financial data [3]. - Continuous development of AI capabilities aims to enhance various operational areas, including customer service and compliance [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards, with expected revenues of 2.31 billion, 3.44 billion, and 4.06 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The net profit estimates for the same period have also been increased, projecting significant growth rates [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group-SW is "Buy" (maintained) [6][13]. Core Views - The growth of intelligent cloud services is accelerating due to AI, and the advertising business is expected to gradually recover with the macroeconomic environment and AI search commercialization [6]. - The non-GAAP net profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been slightly adjusted to 27.1 billion and 29.4 billion CNY respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 32 billion CNY, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 0.2%, 8.7%, and 8.7% [6]. - The current stock price of 88.35 HKD corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 8.7, 8.0, and 7.4 for the years 2025-2027 [6]. Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 134.6 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline slightly to 133.1 billion CNY, a decrease of 1.1% [9]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 is 28.7 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 39.0%. The forecast for 2024 is a decline to 27.0 billion CNY, a decrease of 6.1% [9]. - The gross margin is projected to be 52.6% in 2023, slightly improving to 52.9% in 2024, while the net margin is expected to decrease from 21.4% in 2023 to 20.3% in 2024 [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a stock rating of NR (Not Rated) for Hans Group Holdings Limited (00554.HK) [6] Core Insights - The acquisition of 54.44% of BTHL by Hans Group for HKD 2.7 billion increases its stake to 70%, with BTHL valued at approximately HKD 5 billion [4][15] - A fare adjustment of 7.5% for Citybus routes is expected to help the company return to profitability by increasing revenue without significantly impacting demand [5][90] - The potential for dividend distribution exists if Citybus achieves net profit, with a possible yield of 6% to 7% based on a 95% payout ratio [5][90] Business Overview - BTHL provides public bus services under the Citybus brand, including advertising and tourism services [4][15] - The company operates a fleet of 1,495 buses across 233 routes, with a significant increase in passenger numbers post-pandemic [25][26][68] Financial Performance - BTHL reported total revenue of HKD 34.9 billion in 2023, a 35.1% increase year-on-year, with ticket revenue contributing 87.3% of total income [26][46] - The company aims to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs through the merger with NWFB, which is expected to optimize routes and enhance resource utilization [7][97] Industry Overview - The Hong Kong franchised bus industry is dominated by four operators, with Citybus being the sole operator for routes on Hong Kong Island [58] - The industry faced challenges during the pandemic but is recovering, with a projected market size of HKD 10.6 billion in 2023 [86] Investment Thesis - The anticipated fare increase and potential for dividend distribution are key factors for investment consideration, as Citybus is the main revenue source for Hans Group [90] - The merger with NWFB is expected to create synergies and improve financial performance through cost savings and operational efficiencies [97]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for King’s Ray Bio (1548 HK) with a target price of HKD 28.75, indicating a potential upside of 140% from the current price of HKD 11.98 [2][3]. Core Insights - King’s Ray Bio is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit in 2024, primarily driven by a one-time unrealized gain of approximately USD 3.2 billion from the sale of Legend Biotech, which exceeds previous estimates of USD 2-3 billion [1]. - The company is projected to fully enter the profit zone starting in 2024, with a recovery in the GCT (Gene Cell Therapy) business expected to continue through 2025-2026, leading to a revenue growth rate of around 20% for non-cellular business [1]. - The improvement in the company's fundamentals, coupled with a recovery in investor sentiment, is anticipated to drive valuation recovery, as geopolitical factors and favorable policies for innovative drug payments are expected to enhance investment sentiment in the CXO sector [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The report highlights that the adjusted net profit for non-cellular business in 2024 will remain stable compared to 2023, with no significant changes expected [1]. - The tax losses from Legend Biotech prior to its merger will be accounted for in non-continuing operations, while post-merger, it will be accounted for using the equity method [1]. Market Outlook - The report notes a strong recovery trend in new orders for protein/antibody drugs and GCT, with first-half 2024 new orders recovering to 13 and 24 respectively, compared to 10 and 21 in the first half of 2023 [1]. - The sentiment in the market is improving, with King’s Ray's stock price rising 34% from its year-to-date low, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Medical Index and the Hang Seng Index, both of which increased by 19% [1].

交银国际研究 消息快报 医药 2025 年 2 月 17 日 金斯瑞生物 (1548 HK) 2024 年一次性收益驱动净利润转正，2025 年起全面盈利+增速复苏可期 丁政宁 Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1834 诸葛乐懿 Gloria.Zhuge@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1845 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 解除合并传奇收益高于此前预期：公司预计 2024 年净利润相较 2023 年将 有大幅增长，主要得益于：1）视作出售传奇生物（LEGN US/买入）的一 次性未实现收益约 32 亿美元，超过公司此前预计的 20-30 亿美元（见我们 此前发布的报告），2024 年内，传奇生物解除合并前的税后亏损将计入 非持续经营业绩，解除后则使用权益法核算；2）蓬勃生物优先股公允价 值变动相关的非现金亏损1.24 亿美元，主要来自礼新交易贡献及宏观经济 改善。扣除上述两项影响后，公司 ...