证券研究报告|策略定期研究 2026年03月02日 水电等主题右侧突破 ——主题形态学输出0227 证券分析师： 研究助理： 周浦寒 S0210524040007 杨逸帆 S0210124110046 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 Ø 风险提示：历史经验不代表未来;行业不确定性风险;国内经济复苏速度不及预期;海外 降息节奏不及预期;地缘政治风险。 2 华福证券 华福证券 Ø 主题形态学，0227最新输出： l 1）右侧突破，新增：水电、代糖、小金属、聚碳酸酯、钛白粉、有机硅、磷化 工、超硬材料、钒电池、半导体材料、半导体设备、MLCC、LNG等。 l 2）右侧趋势，持续：光伏，POE胶膜，BC电池。 l 3）底部企稳，新增：信托重仓、医美等。 l 4）底部反转，持续：六氟磷酸锂，锂电电解液，手机电池，白酒，品牌龙头。 录 n 主题形态学最新输出 n 风险提示 目 3 华福证券 华福证券 主题形态学的最新输出 备注：1）本文数据更新至2026/02/27。下同。2）主题形态构建的具体内容参考2025/12/14发布的专题报告《主题形态学三板斧》。3）主题形态的已持续天 数，指信号出 ...

涨价通胀或成为主线：买什么？20260226 摘要 通胀预期升温，电子布等环节涨价，化工品价格与股价处于相对有利位 置，部分品种从被动去库转向主动补库，逐步接近拐点，建议关注"涨 价/通胀"主线下的化工领域投资机会。 万华化学业绩预测乐观，2026 年预计达 160 亿，主要来自石化业务及 新能源材料改善。MDI/TDI 价格敏感性高，每吨涨价 1,000 元可增厚利 润 34 亿，海外提价趋势明显，估值仍有提升空间。 甜味剂行业格局良好，金禾实业在安赛蜜和三氯蔗糖市场占据重要地位， 具备提价逻辑支撑。若安赛蜜涨价至 3 万元以上，预计增加利润 3 亿多 元；三氯蔗糖若协同涨价，利润目标可达 16 亿元。 农药板块处于底部，美国政策可能催化价格上涨，但需观察基本面兑现 情况。磷矿行业景气度较高，下游需求旺盛，但出口端管控严格，短期 国内磷化工以国内运行为主，关注春耕后出口政策变化。 黄磷供给受双碳政策约束，需求端有不可替代性，硫磺价格高位支撑。 若含磷农药出口预期增强，将进一步带动黄磷需求上行，价格看涨情绪 浓厚。 Q&A 如何理解未来一段时间"涨价/通胀"可能成为重要主线的核心逻辑？化工板块 在其中处于什么 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran is expected to drive up prices for methanol, ethylene glycol, and urea, with a comprehensive price increase anticipated for chemical products after the holiday [4]. - The report highlights the impact of differentiated electricity pricing in Shaanxi, which may accelerate the exit of outdated production capacities and improve industry dynamics [4]. - The overall capital expenditure in the chemical sector is at its peak, with low inventory levels in the supply chain, suggesting a favorable environment for price increases as downstream production resumes post-holiday [4]. Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgment indicates that oil prices are expected to remain in a relatively loose range, with Brent crude projected between $60 and $75 per barrel due to delayed OPEC+ production increases and stable demand recovery [5]. - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level in the medium to long term, while natural gas costs may decrease as the US accelerates its export facility construction [5]. - The report notes that the January PPI for industrial products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year but increased by 0.4% month-on-month, indicating a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector [7]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on four main areas for investment: 1. Textile and apparel chain, benefiting from high demand growth and improved supply dynamics [4]. 2. Agricultural chemicals, with stable fertilizer demand and increasing transgenic penetration supporting long-term pesticide demand [4]. 3. Export-related chemical products, as overseas inventories are at historical lows and interest rates are expected to decline [4]. 4. "Anti-involution" policies leading to accelerated clearance of outdated capacities in various sectors [4]. Key Material Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, as well as in lithium battery and fluorine materials [4].

2026 年 03 月 01 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李振方 S0350524080003 | | | lizf@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 关注油价上涨，关注化工旺季到来—看好全球化 工反内卷大周期+AI 需求大周期 ——基础化工行业周报 最近一年走势 2026 年 2 月 26 日，国海化工景气指数为 94.19，较 2026 年 2 月 19 日上升 0.22。 投资建议： 从全球范围看，中国化工优势企业的成本和效率优势已经非常稳固，龙 头企业已经进入了业绩长周期向上的阶段。同时，对于部分供给端受限 的行业，随着需求的回升，这部分行业的景气度有望持续提升，值得重 点关注。碳排放管控下的反内卷有望重估中国化工行业，后续措施有望 使全球以及中国化工行业产能扩张大幅放缓，并对部 ...

格隆汇2月26日｜A股代糖概念股短线拉升，其中，保龄宝封涨停板，三元生物、金禾实业、华康股份 等跟涨。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [4][3]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $60-75 per barrel [4][5]. - The report highlights a potential spring boom in the chemical sector, driven by the success of domestic robotics showcased during the Spring Festival and favorable export conditions following tariff reductions [4][3]. - Investment opportunities are identified in various chains, including textiles, agricultural chemicals, and overseas real estate, with specific companies recommended for investment [4][3]. Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [5]. - The chemical industry is at a cyclical turning point, with downstream operations gradually resuming post-holiday, indicating a positive demand outlook for the year [4][3]. - The report notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January, while the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.3, indicating some volatility in manufacturing activity [7][4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on four key areas: textiles, agricultural chemicals, export chains, and beneficiaries of "anti-involution" policies [4][3]. - Specific companies to watch include those in the textile chain like Lu Xi Chemical and Tongkun Co., and in the agricultural chain like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy [4][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, recommending companies such as Yake Technology and Ruilian New Materials [4][3].

Stock Performance - On February 11, 2026, the stock price of Jinhe Industrial rose by 5.07%, closing at 27.55 CNY per share, with a cumulative increase of 13.75% over three consecutive trading days and a trading volume of 816 million CNY [2] - The stock also saw a rise of 5.55% on February 6, indicating increased market activity in the short term [2] Financial Position - As of February 3, 2026, the company's financing balance was 653 million CNY, accounting for 4.93% of the circulating market value, which is above the 90th percentile level over the past year, indicating a high level of financing [3] - The high financing balance may reflect investors' concerns regarding short-term volatility [3] Institutional Insights - Dongfang Securities maintained a "Buy" rating for Jinhe Industrial on February 12, 2026, with a target price of 28.8 CNY, noting a recovery signal in the export volume of sucralose and potential growth opportunities from new domestic scenarios such as piglet feed additives [4] - The report also revised down the profit forecasts for 2025-2027, highlighting the need to monitor risks related to raw material price fluctuations [4] Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Huaxia CSI 1000 ETF became the ninth largest circulating shareholder, holding 1.8532 million shares; meanwhile, Southern CSI 1000 ETF held 3.1164 million shares but reduced its holdings by 27,800 shares compared to the previous period [5] - The divergence in institutional holdings may impact market sentiment [5] Company Fundamentals - For the period from January to September 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.543 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 12.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 391 million CNY, down 4.44% year-on-year, indicating pressure on performance [6] - The food additive business accounted for 48.10% of total revenue, demonstrating resilience in the core business [6] - Future attention is needed on consumer demand recovery and industry policy direction [6]

Group 1 - The overall performance of the food and beverage sector is declining, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) dropping 1.19% by the end of trading on February 12 [1] - Major stocks in the sector, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, experienced declines, with Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye both falling over 1% [1] - The price of Feitian Moutai has rebounded, reaching 1700 RMB for the original box and 1660 RMB for the loose bottle as of February 12 [3] Group 2 - The white liquor industry is showing signs of differentiation, with demand concentrating on leading brands, particularly Kweichow Moutai, which is benefiting from market reforms [3] - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in valuation, with the price-to-earnings ratio of the Huabao ETF at 20.58, indicating a potential good entry point for investment [3] - Analysts predict a rebound in the white liquor market post-Spring Festival, suggesting a favorable period for annual investment [4] Group 3 - The industry is expected to see a recovery in demand as policy pressures ease, with a clearer direction for industry consolidation and improved pricing signals [4] - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF focuses on high-end and mid-range liquor brands, with approximately 60% of its portfolio allocated to leading liquor companies [5] - Investors can also access core assets in the food and beverage sector through the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF linked fund [5]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a downturn, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) declining by 1.19% as of the close on February 12, 2026, reflecting weak performance in key stocks like liquor and consumer goods [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF opened weakly and continued to fluctuate at low levels, closing down 1.19% [1][8]. - Key stocks in the sector, including Jinhe Industrial, Gujing Gongjiu, and Wuliangye, saw declines of over 2%, while major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Yanghe also fell by more than 1% [1][8]. Group 2: Liquor Pricing Trends - The price of Feitian Moutai has been rising, with the latest reported prices on February 12, 2026, showing the original box price at 1,700 yuan and the loose bottle price at 1,660 yuan [3][10]. - The liquor industry is showing a divergence in performance, with demand concentrating on leading brands, particularly Kweichow Moutai, which is benefiting from marketing reforms and strong customer engagement through the iMoutai app [3][10]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts predict that the liquor channel has reached a bottom, with expectations for a rebound post-Spring Festival, marking a favorable time for annual investment [4][11]. - The industry is currently at a low valuation, with the Huabao ETF's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.58, placing it in the 9.2% percentile of the last decade, indicating a potential opportunity for long-term investment [3][11]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF is recommended for investors, with approximately 60% of its portfolio allocated to leading high-end and mid-range liquor brands, and nearly 40% to other segments like beverages and dairy [5][11]. - The ETF provides a way for investors to access core assets in the food and beverage sector, with a focus on companies with strong performance and dividend potential [4][11].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates a recovery in the export volume of sucralose, signaling positive external demand and potential growth opportunities for the company in new domestic applications [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Opportunities - The domestic demand for sucralose in pig feed could exceed 3,500 tons, accounting for over 60% of the apparent consumption of sucralose in China for 2022 and 2023 [1] - The company is expected to enjoy a unique market space during the five-year protection period, which presents significant growth potential [1] - The recovery in traditional food and beverage sectors is anticipated to positively impact the demand for sucralose [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 592 million, 818 million, and 870 million yuan respectively, a revision from previous estimates of 1.273 billion and 1.494 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 [1] - Based on a 20 times price-to-earnings ratio for comparable companies in 2026, a target price of 28.80 yuan is set, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]