研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2026 年 2 月 4 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 研究员：袁正 期货从业证号：F03151476 投资咨询号：Z0023508 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 金银 【市场回顾】 1.金银市场: 今天白天，金银延续震荡上行走势，市场情绪进一步回暖。至下 午三点，伦敦金交投于 5070 美元附近，伦敦银交投于 89.6 美元附近。受外盘联 动，沪金主力合约最终收于 1141.7 元/克，涨幅 7.29%，沪金加权日增仓 1002 手 至 31.66 万手; 沪银主力合约最终收于 23511 元/千克，涨幅 11.22%，沪银加权日 增仓 27949 手至 61.15 万手。 2.人民币汇率: 人民币兑美元汇率延续升值走势，至下午 3 点交投于 6.936 附 近。 【重要资讯】 1.海 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 144.90 CNY, compared to the current price of 121.61 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company has experienced significant revenue growth driven by active trading in the capital market, with a notable increase in marketing efforts and the consolidation of Maigao Securities. The financial information services and securities businesses are expected to drive future growth, particularly with the acquisition of Pioneer Fund enhancing wealth management capabilities [2][13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,529 million CNY in 2024 to 4,527 million CNY by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.6% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 104 million CNY in 2024 to 1,380 million CNY in 2028, with a CAGR of 40.8% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.17 CNY in 2024 to 2.26 CNY in 2028 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 4.6% in 2024 to 20.1% in 2028 [4]. Business Performance - The company’s securities business, particularly Maigao Securities, has shown rapid growth, with net commission income increasing by 110% year-on-year to 505 million CNY in 2025. Interest income also rose by 33% to 101 million CNY, while investment income reached 221 million CNY, up 47.3% [13]. - The financial information services and advertising business generated 1,539 million CNY in revenue, marking a 28% year-on-year increase [13]. - The total operating costs are projected to rise to 21,580 million CNY in 2025, primarily due to increased sales and management expenses [13]. Market Dynamics - The active trading environment in the capital market is expected to continue, with the average daily trading volume of stock funds reaching 20,003 billion CNY in 2025, a 64.07% increase year-on-year [13]. - The company aims to strengthen its comprehensive wealth management service platform, responding to the growing demand for wealth management among residents [13].

证券之星消息，2月4日软件开发板块较上一交易日下跌1.63%，泛微网络领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4102.2，上涨0.85%。深证成指报收于14156.27，上涨0.21%。软件开发板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300344 | *ST立方 | 2.32 | 20.21% | 158.97万 | | 3.33亿 | | 603232 | 格尔软件 | 23.97 | 5.73% | 35.51万 | | 8.67亿 | | 301159 | 三维天地 | 54.17 | 3.60% | 10.27万 | | 5.32亿 | | 300377 | 赢时胜 | 22.84 | 3.21% | - 83.94万 | | 18.86亿 | | 300468 | 四方精创 | 33.40 | 2.93% | 38.41万 | | 12.85 Z | | 300561 | *ST汇科 | 18.15 | 2.72% | 9.21万 | | 1.68亿 ...

Group 1: Fund News Overview - Over 80% of public funds' self-purchases are directed towards equity funds, with a total scale of 406 million yuan from 24 fund companies as of February 3, 2026 [1] - New funds are accelerating their investment operations, with some funds like Mingya Yuan Zhen Zhi Xuan Mixed A starting to build positions shortly after their establishment [2] - Regulatory requirements have led to the removal of features like "real-time valuation" and "position rankings" from several fund sales platforms to prevent misleading investors [3] Group 2: Notable Fund Manager Updates - Zhang Yan has resigned from multiple funds managed under Agricultural Bank of China Fund due to personal reasons, having achieved a return of 193.55% over more than 8 years [4][5] Group 3: ETF Market Commentary - The market saw a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.85% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.21%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.4% [6] - The coal sector experienced significant gains, with over 10 stocks hitting the daily limit up, and the Coal ETF leading with a rise of 9.07% [7] - Conversely, the artificial intelligence ETFs faced declines, with the leading AI ETF dropping by 4.15% [9] Group 4: ETF Thematic Opportunities - The recent increase in international energy prices and stable supply-demand dynamics are expected to support coal prices, making coal ETFs a potential area of interest [10]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a rise in stock trading software companies, with Tonghuashun and Zhinanzhen increasing by over 2% [1] - Other companies such as Dazhihui and Dongfang Caifu also experienced gains, rising nearly 2% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the median data shows that the profit performance of computer companies in 2025 is expected to outperform revenue [1] - Among the 238 companies that released performance forecasts, only 70 provided revenue data, with a median revenue growth rate of 0.97%. In contrast, the median growth rate for net profit attributable to shareholders is 17.83%, and for non-recurring net profit, it is 28.68% [1] - Large-cap companies tend to lean towards the growth side in performance statistics, with stronger certainty in fourth-quarter performance [1] Group 2 - In 2025, over half of the computer industry performance forecasts are positive, indicating a polarization between growth and decline [2] - Among the 358 computer companies, 238 released performance forecasts, representing 66.5%. The distribution of expected net profit growth rates shows that 42.9% (103 companies) expect growth of over 30%, while 36.3% (87 companies) anticipate a decline of over 30% [2] - The high-growth and significant decline segments combined account for 79.2% of the companies, with 60% (142 companies) expecting growth and 40% (96 companies) expecting decline [2] Group 3 - Among companies with a net profit of approximately 100 million and above, significant performance differentiation is observed [3] - Companies with clear improvements in performance and expected year-on-year growth of over 30% include Tonghuashun, Daotong Technology, and iFLYTEK, among others [3] - Conversely, companies facing profit pressure with year-on-year declines include Bosi Software and Keyuan Wisdom, with the latter showing nearly 40% growth when excluding impairment losses [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the decline of the CSI Software Service Index by 2.64% as of February 4, 2026, with leading stocks such as Guanghuan New Network and others experiencing significant drops [1] - Clawdbot (OpenClaw), an open-source personal AI agent project, has rapidly gained over 136,000 stars on GitHub, marking it as one of the fastest-growing open-source projects at the beginning of 2026 [1] - Major domestic cloud service providers like Tencent Cloud, Alibaba Cloud, and UCloud have launched cloud-based deployment services for Clawdbot, indicating a shift in AI from being a "consultant" to becoming an embedded "digital employee" in workflows [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities anticipates that in 2026, AI applications will evolve from being merely usable to highly functional, with diverse business models emerging, positioning AI applications as a core theme in the AI industry market [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Software Service Index as of January 30, 2026, include iFlytek, Kingsoft Office, and others, collectively accounting for 60.27% of the index [2] - Investors can also access AI software investment opportunities through the Software ETF (159852) and its linked fund (012620) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory authorities have mandated fund sales institutions and third-party platforms to conduct self-examinations and remove misleading features that could confuse investors, aiming to promote long-term investment strategies over short-term trading behaviors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - Regulatory bodies have observed that some fund sales institutions and unlicensed third-party platforms have reinstated "real-time valuation" features, which could mislead investors and dilute fund product returns [2][4]. - Fund sales institutions and third-party platforms are required to remove features such as "real-time valuation," "increased position rankings," and "actual performance rankings" to prevent misleading investor behavior [2][3]. - Major platforms like Ant Wealth and Tonghuashun have already complied by suspending these features, with specific timelines for adjustments announced [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Response - Many platforms have taken steps to comply with regulatory requirements, including the removal of various ranking features that could mislead investors [3][4]. - Some platforms continue to display real-time valuations under different formats, indicating a need for further compliance and adjustment within the industry [4][5]. - The industry is undergoing a self-assessment process to ensure compliance with regulations, with companies actively checking the qualifications of their promotional partners [3][5]. Group 3: Market Implications - The removal of misleading features is part of a broader effort to guide fund sales away from transactional behaviors and encourage investors to focus on long-term asset management [4][5]. - The use of real-time valuation has been criticized for fostering short-term trading behaviors, which contradicts the fundamental purpose of mutual funds aimed at ordinary investors [5]. - Regulatory actions are intended to stabilize the market and mitigate risks associated with investor behavior during periods of market volatility [5].

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory authorities have mandated fund sales institutions and third-party platforms to conduct self-examinations and remove misleading features that could confuse investors, aiming to promote long-term investment strategies over short-term trading behaviors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - Regulatory bodies have observed that some fund sales institutions and unlicensed third-party platforms have reinstated "real-time valuation" features, which could mislead investors and dilute fund product returns [2][4]. - Fund sales institutions and third-party platforms are required to remove features such as "real-time valuation," "increased position rankings," and "actual performance rankings" to prevent misleading investor behavior [2][3]. - Major platforms like Ant Wealth and Tonghuashun Fund have already announced the suspension of real-time valuation and related ranking features, with specific timelines for these adjustments [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Response - Various platforms have begun to remove features that could negatively impact investor behavior, such as "simulated valuation" and "ranking lists" [3][4]. - Despite regulatory requirements, some platforms continue to display real-time valuations under different formats, indicating a need for further compliance [4][5]. - The industry is undergoing a self-assessment process to ensure compliance with new regulations, including reviewing partnerships with unqualified internet influencers for fund sales activities [3][4]. Group 3: Market Implications - The removal of real-time valuation and ranking features is part of a broader effort to guide fund sales away from short-term trading and encourage investors to focus on long-term asset management [4][5]. - The use of real-time valuation has been criticized for facilitating frequent trading and market speculation, which contradicts the fundamental purpose of public funds aimed at ordinary investors [5].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around a fund company's violation of sales regulations, leading to major distribution channels like Ant Wealth and Tonghuashun removing real-time valuation and related short-term ranking features [1][3] - Regulatory authorities have mandated that fund sales institutions and third-party platforms conduct self-inspections and remove misleading features that could confuse investors, such as "real-time valuation" and "ranking lists" [3][4] - Many institutions have already begun to comply with these regulations by suspending features that could mislead investors, including real-time valuation and various ranking lists [4][5] Group 2 - The industry is undergoing a self-check process regarding the qualifications of influencers (referred to as "DVs") collaborating with fund companies, ensuring they possess the necessary qualifications for fund sales [2][5] - Despite regulatory actions, some platforms continue to display modified versions of real-time valuation, using alternative methods to indicate fund performance, which could still mislead investors [6][7] - The regulatory push aims to discourage short-term trading behaviors and promote the fundamental purpose of mutual funds as long-term investment tools, thereby stabilizing the market [6][7]