Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][41]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.07% from January 16 to January 29, 2026, lagging behind the index by approximately 0.12 percentage points [3][10]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in planting (9.25%), animal health (4.71%), agricultural product processing (4.12%), and fishery (1.82%), while feed and breeding sectors saw declines of 0.02% and 2.84%, respectively [3][13][14]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry was approximately 2.66 times as of January 29, 2026, indicating that the industry is at a relatively low valuation level compared to historical averages, positioned at about 59.9% of the valuation center since 2006 [3][18]. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: - The average price of external three yuan pigs fluctuated from 12.76 CNY/kg to 13.24 CNY/kg before dropping to 12.52 CNY/kg during the reporting period [3][22]. - The breeding sow inventory reached 39.61 million heads by the end of December 2025, a decrease of 0.73% from the previous month, remaining within the normal range of 39 million heads [3][22]. - The profit from self-bred pigs was 25.1 CNY/head, while the profit from purchased piglets was 124.13 CNY/head, both maintaining positive profitability [3][26]. - **Poultry Farming**: - The average price of broiler chicks was 2.31 CNY/chick, showing a slight decrease, while the average price for layer chicks was 3.2 CNY/chick, which saw a minor increase [3][28]. - The average price for white feather broilers was 7.74 CNY/kg, with a profit of 0.39 CNY/chick, indicating a recovery in profitability [3][32]. - **Aquaculture**: - The average wholesale price for crucian carp and carp was stable, with prices at 19.4 CNY/kg and 13.88 CNY/kg, respectively, showing slight increases [3][33]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to discuss stabilizing beef production and alleviating dairy industry challenges, emphasizing the need for effective policies to support these sectors [3][35]. - A meeting was also held to coordinate efforts in the seed industry revitalization action, focusing on enhancing domestic seed security and promoting technological independence [3][38]. Company Highlights - Key companies to watch include: - Muyuan Foods (牧原股份, 002714): A leading player in pig farming with cost and scale advantages [3][42]. - Haida Group (海大集团, 002311): A leading feed company expected to maintain steady market share growth [3][42]. - Shengnong Development (圣农发展, 002299): A leader in the white feather broiler industry with advantages in seed sources [3][42]. - Reap Bio (瑞普生物, 300119): A leader in the animal health sector with a growing product matrix for pet health [3][42]. - Longping High-Tech (隆平高科, 000998): A leading seed company with advanced transgenic reserves [3][42].

截至2026年1月30日 13:35，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)上涨0.61%，成分股兄弟科技上涨6.66%，晓鸣股 份上涨5.13%，回盛生物上涨3.69%，罗牛山上涨3.08%，大北农上涨2.94%。养殖ETF(516760)多空胶 着，最新报价0.69元。 农业种植走强，消息面上，1月29日，生意社大豆基准价为4468.00元/吨，与本月初相比，上涨了 1.18%。此外，我国粮食产量达到了14298亿斤，再创历史新高。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资 产，但不保证本基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金管理人提醒投资人基金投资的"买者自负"原 则，在做出投资决策后，基金运营状况与基金净值变化引致的投资风险，由投资人自行负担。基金的过 往业绩及其净值高低并不预示其未来业绩表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩不构成对本基金业绩 表现的保证。投资人购买基金，既可能按其持有份额分享基金投资所产生的收益，也可能承担基金投资 所带来的损失。投资人应当认真阅读《基金合同》《招募说明书》等基金法律文件，全面认识本基金的 风险收益特征和产品特性，并根据自身的 ...

当前时点如何看消费顺周期？20260129 摘要 房地产市场：预计 2027 年接近底部，短期一线城市二手房成交量回升， 价格跌幅收窄，政策稳定预期，显示边际向好信号。关注未来超常规政 策如房贷结构性工具、公积金降息及城市更新货币化安置。 货币政策与流动性：央行维持低利率，定期存款到期或转向理财及权益 市场，活期存款增加，资金更易流入资本市场。地产板块持仓比例仅 0.4%，刷新历史新低，估值修复迅速。 财政政策与消费：财政支出倾斜社保民生等领域，多地发放消费券支撑 春节消费，1 月政府债同比多增，表明财政前置发力。2026 年一季度经 济量价预计整体提升。 通胀预期：春节临近及季节性因素致蔬菜、水果、白酒价格上涨，国际 金属价格上行推动 PPI 向 CPI 传导，预计 2026 年 CPI 中枢高于去年。 白酒板块持仓降至新低，有望迎来反弹。 消费品市场：大众品复苏节奏超前于白酒，连锁业态维持高景气，规模 效应提升利润率。调味品板块库存消化完毕，进入发货周期，餐饮供应 链复苏，经销商备货积极。 Q&A 当前如何看待消费顺周期的表现？ 当前消费顺周期的表现主要受到几个因素的影响。首先，从地产层面来看，我 们总结 ...

Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming index in China shows a strong upward trend, with significant gains in key stocks, indicating a potential recovery in the industry driven by improved profitability and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the China Livestock Farming Index (930707) increased by 1.28%, with notable stock performances including Xiaoming Co. up 14.44%, Dabeinong up 5.66%, and Lihua Co. up 4.15% [1]. - The Livestock ETF (516760) rose by 0.58%, marking its third consecutive increase, with the latest price at 0.69 yuan [1]. Group 2: Price and Profitability Insights - On January 21, 2026, the price of pork was reported at 13.39 yuan/kg, reflecting a 7.9% increase compared to the end of 2025 [1]. - Profit margins for self-breeding and purchased pig farming were 43.35 yuan/head and 115.84 yuan/head, respectively, indicating a turnaround in the industry and a potential slowdown in capacity reduction [1]. - The breeding sow inventory at the end of 2025 was 39.61 million heads, down 2.9% year-on-year [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - China Galaxy Securities predicts that the average annual pork price may show a year-on-year decline, but there could be a rebound during the year influenced by seasonal disease impacts [1]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in cost control, those with healthy financials, and reasonably valued firms in the pig farming sector [1]. Group 4: Index Composition - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Farming Index included Muyuan Foods, Haida Group, and Wens Foodstuffs, collectively accounting for 67.66% of the index [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the agricultural and livestock ETF (159275) is showing a stable performance with a price increase of 2.71%, and notable movements in its constituent stocks [1][5] - Key performing stocks include Shennong Seed Industry, Dunhuang Seed Industry, and Nongfa Seed Industry, with increases of 15.51%, 10%, and 9.96% respectively [1][5] - Conversely, Jin Xin Nong, Jin He Biological, and Andis Su showed weaker performance with declines of 1.44%, 1.04%, and 0.58% respectively [1][5] Group 2 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is focusing on stabilizing beef production and accelerating support for the dairy industry, aiming for sustainable industry development [1][5] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, pork production in China is projected to exceed 59 million tons by 2025, with nearly 720 million pigs being slaughtered, providing a solid foundation for market supply [1][5] - Pacific Securities notes that pig farming capacity is gradually decreasing but at a slower pace, with short-term price rebounds expected during peak seasons, while mid-term prices may remain low [6] - The poultry industry is experiencing high capacity for white chickens, leading to potential price fluctuations, while yellow chicken supply is tight, which may drive prices up [6] - The animal health industry is seeing high volatility in core antibiotic prices [6] Group 3 - Financial analysis from Caitong Securities indicates that pig prices are fluctuating with ongoing supply pressures, and policy guidance may accelerate capacity reduction [2][6] - The poultry sector is facing uncertainties due to frequent outbreaks of avian influenza abroad, which may benefit the white feather chicken industry chain prices in the medium to long term [2][6] - The pet sector continues to grow domestically, with increasing market share for domestic brands [2][6] - The seed industry should focus on the progress of biological breeding expansion [2][6] - The animal health sector has ongoing growth potential, with new products being launched to drive growth [2][6] Group 4 - The agricultural and livestock ETF (159275) and its linked funds (Link A: 013471, Link C: 013472) passively track the agricultural and livestock index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group [2][6]

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share liquor sector experienced a significant surge, with a rise of 9.68% on January 29, leading the market performance for the day [1][2] - The oil and gas extraction and service sector also saw a notable increase of 8.18%, with a total transaction volume of 32.31 billion [2] - The precious metals sector rose by 8.04%, with a transaction volume of 70.62 billion, indicating strong market interest [2] Group 2: Energy and Petrochemical Sector Dynamics - The energy and petrochemical sector's rise began in early January 2026, with domestic crude oil futures rebounding from 411 yuan/barrel to 475 yuan/barrel, a 15% increase [4] - The oil and gas extraction and service sector has accumulated a remarkable increase of 44.22% year-to-date, ranking second in market performance, only behind precious metals [7] - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has shown a cumulative increase of 14.71% since the beginning of the year, reflecting strong investor interest [9] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The recent surge in the petrochemical sector is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, raising concerns over oil supply stability [11] - The market has priced in a risk premium of $3-8 per barrel due to fears of potential disruptions in oil supply from Iran, which produces approximately 3.3 million barrels per day [11] - The classic rotation pattern in commodity markets, where precious metals lead, followed by industrial metals and then energy, is being validated again [14][16] Group 4: Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to gain market attention as commodity prices rise, driven by increased costs in agricultural production due to higher energy prices [17][24] - The CPI and food prices have shown signs of recovery, with the CPI rising by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a potential shift in consumer price dynamics [18] - The agricultural ETF (516810) tracks a comprehensive index covering the entire agricultural value chain, which may benefit from the rising commodity prices [26] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The petrochemical industry is at a turning point, with new policies aimed at preventing excessive competition and improving profitability [22] - The capital expenditure ratios in the refining and chemical sectors are showing a trend towards conservatism, indicating a strategic shift among companies [23] - The anticipated recovery in the petrochemical sector is supported by both geopolitical factors and the broader commodity market dynamics, suggesting a favorable outlook for industry leaders [24][25]

本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 证券代码：002311 证券简称：海大集团 公告编号：2026-003 广东海大集团股份有限公司 关于控股股东部分股份质押的公告 1、股票质押登记证明； 广东海大集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于近日接到公司控股股东 广州市海灏投资有限公司（以下简称"海灏投资"）函告，获悉海灏投资将其所 持有公司的部分股份办理了质押手续，具体事项如下： 一、股东股份质押的基本情况 1、股东股份本次质押基本情况 | 股东 | 是否为控股 股东或第一 | 本次质押 数量 | 占其所 持股份 | 占公司 总股本 | 是否为 | 是否为 补充 | 质押 | 质押 | 质权人 | 质押用途 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 大股东及其 一致行动人 | （股） | 比例 | 比例 | 限售股 | 质押 | 起始日 | 到期日 | | | | 海灏投资 | 是 | 2,600,000 | 0.29% | 0.16% | ...

从资金流向上来看，当日饲料板块主力资金净流出1.1亿元，游资资金净流入2450.87万元，散户资金净流 入8597.09万元。饲料板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，1月29日饲料板块较上一交易日上涨2.24%，金新农领涨。当日上证指数报收于4157.98， 上涨0.16%。深证成指报收于14300.08，下跌0.3%。饲料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002548 | 金新农 | 6.93 | 6.29% | 84.64万 | | 5.73亿 | | 002311 | 海大集团 | 51.90 | 3.37% | 14.14万 | | 7.27亿 | | 002385 | 大北农 | 4.42 | 2.79% | 374.89万 | | 16.55 Z | | 603363 | 傲农生物 | 4.15 | 2.22% | 56.80万 | | 2.35亿 | | 000702 | 正虹科技 | 6.97 | 1.75% | 8.07万 ...

Group 1 - The average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market is 18.72 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous day, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for pig farming as the supply of live pigs decreases towards the end of the second quarter [1] - Under the guidance of the "anti-involution" policy in the pig industry, capacity reduction is progressing alongside policy adjustments, leading to an accelerated decline in the number of breeding sows after a slow decrease in previous months [1] - The domestic pig price is expected to maintain a trend of capacity reduction during the off-season in the first half of the year, which may lead to a recovery in the fundamentals and valuations of the pig farming industry, currently at a low market expectation and valuation level [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Livestock Breeding Index (930707) include Muyuan Foods, Haida Group, Wen's Foodstuffs, Zhengbang Technology, New Hope, Meihua Biological, Bio-Stock, Dabeinong, Shennong Development, and Lihua Co., accounting for a total of 67.66% of the index [2]

Group 1 - The liquor industry is experiencing a strong rebound, with the major consumption index rising by 1.21% as of 11:24 AM on January 29, 2026, driven by stocks like Hainan Rubber hitting the daily limit and notable increases in Luzhou Laojiao (5.06%) and Gujing Gongjiu (4.06%) [1] - The State Council has initiated measures to boost consumption, emphasizing the implementation of special actions to stimulate consumption and cultivate new growth points in service consumption [1] - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the food and beverage sector is currently at a low point in both fundamentals and valuations, presenting significant investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating a mild recovery trend [1] - The current valuation of the liquor sector is at a low point historically, with market expectations being pessimistic and a favorable chip structure, suggesting a good entry point for investments [1] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to catalyze performance in the sector, with particular focus on investment opportunities in the dairy, snacks, and catering supply chain segments [1] Group 3 - The CSI Major Consumption Index includes leading consumer stocks across various sectors, with the top ten stocks accounting for 68.63% of the index, including Yili, Kweichow Moutai, and Wuliangye [1] - The consumption ETF managed by Harvest (512600) tracks the CSI Major Consumption Index, which encompasses essential consumer leaders from various sectors, with liquor being the largest segment at nearly 38% weight [2] - Investors can also access the consumption recovery trend through the consumption ETF linked fund (009180) [3]